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Preview: Chicago at Green Bay

Chicago hasn't lost at Lambeau since 2003, and Lovie Smith has never lost at Lambeau as a head coach, so it's obviously a big monkey on the Packers' back. Football Outsiders says the Packers are the 7th best team in the NFL (seriously) and it's all because the NFL is "kinda good" this season:

"Right now, 16 different teams are either 6-3 or 5-4. That's half the league! With so many teams hovering around "kinda good," only three teams are better than 6-3, and only three teams are 4-5. By comparison, last year at this point nine different teams were 4-5...

Below the top three, things begin to diverge from conventional wisdom. The Packers may only be 4-5, but they rank seventh in DVOA, basically tied with the 7-2 Panthers. (They lost to the Vikings, and moved up three spots anyway because the system thinks they outplayed Minnesota by a small amount.)"

I guess that shows how important the quarterback is to their system. The Packers were outplayed by every Viking not named Gus Frerotte, and Frerotte played so badly that he almost made up for all the good work from his teammates.

While the Packers are clearly the best 4-5 team in the NFL, Chicago is one of the best 5-4 teams:

Teams Overall Run Offense Pass Offense Run Defense Pass Defense Special Teams
Packers 7 22 11 29 1 8
Chicago 14 19 13 3 13 21

I really want to focus on the special teams rankings because when the Packers got crushed last season in Chicago 35-7 it was because of special teams. P Jon Ryan dropped one snap and had two other punts blocked. That was a unique game because of the freezing cold weather, but it still was a blowout because the special teams were awful. This season, Chicago's special teams are below average and one reason is that KR Devin Hester is not the same guy he was in 2006 and 2007

Looking at QB Kyle Orton, he appears to be having a season similar to Tennessee's QB Kerry Collins. Orton is better, but, just like Collins, he's playing it safe and not turning the ball over. Orton has 8 turnovers (fumbles and INTs) in 8 games, but 4 of them happened in the game vs. Philadelphia. He's had no turnovers in 5 of the 8 games he's started. Collins didn't have a great game against the Packers, so I don't expect Orton will be great either. But just like Collins, he won't turn the ball over either.

RB Matt Forte isn't having a great season, but he's been playing as well or better than three backs who killed the Packers this season (Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and Earnest Graham) so he should have a 100 yard game if Chicago can take the lead or keep it close.

Chicago's run defense is outstanding, so RB Ryan Grant should not be a huge factor in the game.

Chicago's pass defense is struggling. They compare to teams like Atlanta and Indianapolis, and QB Aaron Rodgers played well against both of those teams.

In all four of the Packers' wins, they built leads of over 10 points and managed to hang on for the win. Only Detroit managed to retake the lead, and the Packers had to come from behind to beat them. But not every team is as bad as Detroit. To win this game, the Packers have to get an early lead from their pass offense or their special teams and make Chicago throw the ball into the teeth of the Packers' outstanding pass defense.

Poll
Predict the final score vs. Chicago
Packers 34, Chicago 14
20 votes
Packers 34, Chicago 27
25 votes
Packers 24, Chicago 27
8 votes
Packers 17, Chicago 28
16 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

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Comments

Display:

I have no doubt were due for some wins

We’re not as bad as our record indicates. We just win this week and the Buccaneers take care of business then we’re in a three way tie and its a blank slate.
Anyone remember in 2003 when we started 4-5, after losing a heartbreaker to the Eagles on Monday night, we went to Raymond James Stadium, where we had never won before and won the game. We need that kind of showing on Sunday.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Nov 14, 2008 1:25 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

What went wrong in Chicago

I expect more of What Went Wrong threads… I really enjoy reading the prolific mediocrity this team has sunken too.

I mean it too, very well done with the game recaps and insights.

I apologize for my negative nancy attitude, but this team has no business losing these tight contests like this over some dumb things like not blocking A GUY WITH ONE ARM.

So if we lose this one are we done for the year?

by PackaCracka on Nov 15, 2008 10:32 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm feeling a big win

Its about time. And yeah, if we lose this one the season is over. But I don’t think it will happen. This team is too good to miss the playoffs this year.

by Pack Man on Nov 15, 2008 1:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I hate to be dramatic, but

If the Packers lose this game they will be in a hole. They need to play their best game to date. The need to throw the ball a majority of the time. The Bears have a terrible pass defense. The Bears run defense is too good to penetrate without throwing the ball a lot to get them to back off.

by massey1984 on Nov 15, 2008 11:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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