Football Outsiders Discuss the Packers

by Brandon on Nov 18, 2008 6:00 PM CST in Analysis Comment 7 comments

The Packers' defense has scored seven TDs this season. Don't get used to it. It's not a skill. The ball is just bouncing their way.

They've ranked the Packers as the 5th best team in the league. Aaron felt some explaination was in order because that puts them ahead of 11 teams with better records:

"The Packers have lost three games by a field goal or less, and their largest loss is 11 points...

The Packers have outscored opponents by 65 points with +7 turnover margin...

Despite five losses, the Packers have only one game with DVOA below zero: their Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay."

The good news was at the bottom of Aaron's article; the Packers have the 7th easiest schedule the rest of the way.

Although it wasn't a great weekend for QBs, they ranked Rodgers as the 3rd best QB last weekend.

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Interesting stuff...

Yeah I’m surprised they have philly 3rd overall. There analysis is very numbers heavy. Were the football outsiders the same guys who had Green Bay as their playoff darkhorse prior to the start of last season? If so, I respect these guys. Rounding up slightly, they give the Packers a 70 percent shot of making the playoffs…they don’t have much respect for minny and chic…

Being a packer fan, I want to accept their opinions and that this ship might get turned around here in the second half!

by PackFaninFL on Nov 18, 2008 9:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ahead of the curve

I was shocked when I read their 2007 Pro Football Prospectus and it said the Packers would finish ahead of the Super Bowl losing Bears. I thought the Packers still had a way to go on offense, but Football Outsider guys were right on top of the resurgent 2007 Pack.

I think their projection that the Packers are likely to make the playoffs passes the smell test. Brad Childress is determined to keep the Vikings an 8-8 team, how can you not call a play for Adrian Peterson during the entire 4th quarter of a close game? The Bears obviously have some issues too after watching their game on Sunday.

by Brandon on Nov 19, 2008 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Aaron Shatz who wrote the column about the rankings above, is the guy that mentioned the Packers as a dark horse last year. They are prety good with their predictions, but injuries and bad bounces still make the NFL a tricky prognostication.

by grant76 on Nov 20, 2008 3:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

by Brandon on Nov 20, 2008 7:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

defensive scoring

Its not something that can be counted on, but its not happening because the ball is bouncing their way.

by ol Pete on Nov 18, 2008 10:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Crazy stuff

Forcing interceptions and fumbles aren’t luck. Recovering fumbles involve luck because once that ball comes out it’s not a given that it will literally bounce your way.

It’s not luck that S Nick Collins has had a few big interceptions this season. But it’s not by design that he’s been able to run a couple of them back for TDs. I’m picking on Collins because he’s had some crazy TD returns. He’s been able to run through and around several guys up and down the field. He’ll still get some INTs, but eventually the offense will start tackling him on the returns.

by Brandon on Nov 19, 2008 12:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. Forcing fumbles and making interceptions do happen more for teams with skilled players. But studies on fumbles show that when the ball hits the ground its really a 50-50 shot on which team recovers.

Interceptions are more skill based and the Packers have returned more than they probably should have, but the more you intercept, the more are going to be taken back.

In short, there is some luck on the returns, but the defense is making plays.

by grant76 on Nov 20, 2008 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs