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Statistical Breakdown: Driver vs. Jennings

I apologize for the length of this post, but I think it's a necessary issue to explore in-depth.  Plus I got out of my stats course early, so I've got numbers on the brain.  All statistics are available at nfl.com

Kevin Seifert is in charge of the NFC North blog at ESPN.com.  He does a great job rounding up news and analysis on the four teams in the Black and Blue division.  In his latest post, he linked an article in the Green Bay Press-Gazette by Rob Demovsky about the growing on-field connection between Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings.

The article doesn't come out and say that Jennings is Rodgers' favorite target, but I'm going to let the article say it for me:

“We had a similar play on a previous drive where I tried to hit Greg real quick, and I threw it behind him,” Rodgers said. “I was pretty upset at myself. We came back to a similar play call, a quick slant to Greg. I feel like, and I know our coaching staff does as well, if you can get Greg Jennings the ball with separation, good things are going to happen.”

That last line is the telling one.  Aaron Rodgers and McCarthy's staff feel that Jennings is the team's best reciever, a title held by Donald Driver for more than a few seasons.  And rightfully so, for a long time Driver was the most consistent reciever on the offense, with five 1,000-yard seasons in the last six years.

But is that torch  passing to the third-year pro out of Western Michigan?  Here's some numbers from the preseason and weeks 1 and 2 to look at:

An area where Jennings and Driver are tied is in catches.  Rodgers has gone 42/60 so far, and Jennings and Donald Driver have 11  receptions each over two games, making each responsible for 26% of Rodgers' completions.  Adding on the pre-season stats makes Rodgers 79/114, with Driver and Jennings grabbing 20 and 16, respectively.  Not too big of a difference percentage-wise, where Driver leads 17.5% to 14%.  However, a major consideration to make is the fact that Jennings did not play in the first two pre-season games, which may have deflated his reception total.

A big difference can be seen when yardage is considered.  Rodgers is 8th in the league in passing yards with 506.  Jennings currently leads the NFL in recieving yards with 258, whereas Driver has only 90.  Greg Jennings accounts for over 50% of Rodgers' passing yards, while Driver only has about 18%.  If you add on the stats from the pre-season, Rodgers has 942 yards, and Jennings and Driver have 368 and 177, respectively.  Pre-season plus weeks 1 and 2 work out to Jennings getting 39% of the yards compared to Driver's 19%.

The biggest reason for the discrepancy is mainly because of Jennings' big-play ability, as he has 4 receptions of 50+ yards (3 of them going for 60+), with three coming in the regular season.  Driver, on the other hand, doesn't have a reception longer than 25 yards.  This can be seen in a side-by-side comparison of each reciever's averages, where Jennings wins handily 23.5 YPC to Driver's 8.2.

So does this mean that Jennings has taken over as Green Bay's go-to reciever?  Not quite.  A closer breakdown of receptions by field position reveals something.  The majority of Jennings' receptions has come from before the offense crosses midfield (8-11), and he has no catches in the red zone.  Driver has most of his catches between the 20's (9-11), and has 1 catch in the red zone (a 2-yard score).  In the pre-season as well, the closer to the opponent's goal line the Packers got, the more receptions Driver had.

So the moral of the story is this:  When Green Bay is in their own territory, Jennings is the guy Rodgers is looking for because he can break off a huge gain at any moment.  However, after midfield, Driver becomes more and more prominent because of his ability as a possession reciever.

It's still early in the season yet, but this is a trend well worth paying attention to as Driver's NFL career winds down.  It will also be interesting to see who steps up to fill the void when Driver does retire (he's 34 next February) among James Jones, Jordy Nelson, or a player added to the team later on.

Poll
Who is Aaron Rodgers' favorite target?
Donald Driver
6 votes
Greg Jennings
36 votes
Someone else
3 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

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Jennings big play ability is the difference

Driver is still an extremely valuable receiver but Jennings big play ability is what separates him from the others. Every one of our receivers makes a lot of yardage after the catch (which is something that I think comes a lot from Driver’s leadership over the years) but the one that I think Rodgers has a great connection with is James Jones. He played great on Sunday. That doesn’t mean I think Jones is the best receiver on the team but his connection with Rodgers is pretty special.

Great analysis, Mitchell_M! Thanks

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on Sep 15, 2008 11:50 AM CDT   0 recs

In retrospect, I should have added Jones to the equation, considering his advancement during the pre-season. Not to mention he and Rodgers were both on the second-team offense last year, which is something that doesn’t show up in numbers.

Thanks for the accolade. I’ll keep them coming whenever I can think of something else to explore.

"I'm so clean, cats think I sip Ajax."

by Mitchell_M on Sep 15, 2008 2:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not Yet

If you add the 60+ yard TD catch Driver had called back on a penalty against Minnesota, the stats would shift a bit. I think they are both number ones, and have been that way since Jennings returned in week 3 last season. I doubt they talk about it, but Driver actually said some pro-Favre things in public after his unretirement so I wonder how that sits with Rodgers.

by Brandon on Sep 16, 2008 1:21 AM CDT   0 recs

Why split hairs?

Jennings has proven to be the big play guy, Driver has proven to be the reliable go anywhere get your hands dirty and pick up the tough yards on 3rd down receiver. Both are nice to have…

by Packschmid on Sep 16, 2008 12:59 PM CDT   0 recs

That's what I was about to say.

In this offense, they’re two different receivers. Jennings is your home run ball receiver and Driver is your singles and doubles guy.

"You just don't know understand how frustrating this is"- Kevin Borseth

by TkGoUWGB on Sep 17, 2008 1:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

This remind me a bit of Antonio Freeman. He was “the guy”, and was still being thought of as “the guy” even after he had slowed into a possession receiver.

Driver is still very good, and he’s crafty and should still be productive for a couple of more years, but he’s not going to get any better, and IMO Jennings has already passed him and has not peaked yet.

by grant76 on Sep 16, 2008 1:13 PM CDT   0 recs

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