Preview: Minnesota at Green Bay
by Brandon
on Sep 8, 2008 1:11 AM CDT
in Analysis
1 comment
I took part in a podcast last week with Gonzo over at Daily Norseman, and he admitted that he has blocked all memory of the 34-0 week 10 pasting Minnesota took during their last game at Lambeau in 2007. The Packers 23-16 win at Minnesota in week 4 was a lot closer. QB Tavaris Jackson was injured for the game at Lambeau, but RB Ryan Grant was not the Packers starting running back at Minnesota. Minnesota's offense under Brad Childress has not scored a single point in two games at Lambeau, although that's sure to change in this game, but he's got a lot to prove. What else has changed since 2007?
- Aaron Rodgers is the starting QB. This isn't a factor. Rodgers will be as good as Favre.
- Minnesota DE Jared Allen. He changes Minnesota's defense a lot. They could not get after the quarterback last season with their front four alone and had to blitz their linebackers. Now they don't have to blitz as much. Whatever they do, at least they have more options on defense. Favre had passing games of 344 and 351 yards in their two games last season against Minnesota. When the Packers played the Kansas City Chiefs last season in week 9, Favre threw for 360 yards against Allen's team. Allen alone isn't going to stop the Packers pass offense.
- Minnesota lost starting LT Bryant McKinnie to a suspension. He's had some bad games against the Packers, so his absence might not make a big difference. It all depends on how good/bad his replacement, Artis Hicks, is.
On offense, the Packers have to protect Rodgers. It's something they struggled with this preseason, but with almost the same offensive line (RG Tony Moll will start and Jason Spitz will move to center for the injured Scott Wells) and the same starting tight end and running back as extra blockers, the pass blocking should be just as good as last season when they only allowed 19 sacks. They have to run the ball to keep Minnesota honest, but Grant ran for 119 yards in his last game against Minnesota so he can defintely contribute. Still the pass offense will do most of the work. On defense, contain RB Adrian Peterson. He'll probably get 100 yards rushing, but the defense has to make sure he has no carries over 10 yards. Make Minnesota work the length of the field, run a lot of plays on each drive, and wait for Tavaris Jackson to make some mistakes. They don't have to sack Jackson, hold the rushing lanes so he doesn't have any big scrambles, but get in his face and force him to throw the ball.
The Packers were clearly the better team last season, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue this season. These divisional games are especially important to secure that division championship. Sometimes too many good teams are fighting for too few wild card spots. There should be some ugly moments as players get used to playing a full regular season game again, but this should be a game the Packers win.
Last season's rankings from Football Outsiders:
| Teams | FO Ranking |
|---|---|
| Packers Rushing Offense | 9 |
| Minnesota Rushing Defense | 2 |
| Minnesota Rushing Offense | 3 |
| Packers Rushing Defense | 8 |
| Packers Passing Offense | 5 |
| Minnesota Passing Defense | 23 |
| Minnesota Passing Offense | 19 |
| Packers Passing Defense | 17 |
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well done
as always, Brandon. Your Friday injury update and this preview give me as close to a home perspective as I can get all the way out here in NJ.
My biggest concern for tonight is Minnesota’s run game vs. GB’s defense. Despite McKinnie’s absence, the Minnesota line still boasts Steve Hutchinson, who is one of the best guards in the game (I would hope, after the king’s ransom the Vikes paid for him). Combined with Anthony Herrera (a solid contrbutor) and Matt Birk, whom we all know and hate, Minnesota boasts quite the interior OL presence.
Now look at the other side of the ball. Ryan Pickett, Johnny Jolly, and Colin Cole make up the DT rotation. Yes, Cullen Jenkins will (hopefully) move inside when KGB comes out, and maybe Mike Montgomery or Jeremy Thompson will get in there too, but all that aside, the DT corps has three players in it. That hurts. Justin Harrell, when healthy, would make me feel much better about the situation, because he’s got size and oodles (yes, oodles) of talent, and would keep the rest of the big boys fresh. But he’s not available for quite some time, so the interior DL will have to rely on 3 1/2 players until then.
But what about the linebackers, you may ask? Well, that’s not 100% either. Nick Barnett, who I love at the Mike, is a phenomenal player who’s just a bit undersized. Brady Poppinga and Brandon Chillar are also adept at run support. And A.J. Hawk? He’s a beast…but is he healthy enough to show it? Because of his solid fundamental style of play, his chest injury is going to take a beating against a physical run offense like that of Minnesota. I just hope he holds up.
If the LB corps can step up and make up for the lack of DL depth, I think the Pack has this in the bag. That’s my two cents.
-- "I do know that I plead the fizzif."
by Mitchell_M on
Sep 8, 2008 10:20 AM CDT
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