Preview: Lions at Packers
by Brandon on Oct 16, 2009 7:01 AM CDT
in Analysis
26 comments
The Green Bay Packers are coming off the bye week, and into one of the easiest games on their schedule. The lowly Detroit Lions, in Lambeau. I gave up on looking back for the Lions last win in Green Bay, it's been a while, but it doesn't really matter since it's almost an entirely new Lions team in 2009. Here are the league rankings for both teams, based on yardage from NFL.com:
| Team | Pass Offense | Pass Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | 12 | 17 |
| Lions | 16 | 27 |
| Team | Run Offense | Run Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | 22 | 20 |
| Lions | 19 | 21 |
Or maybe this game is going to be closer than some people expect. Neither team is very good at running the ball, or stopping the run. Both teams can get yardage passing the ball. The only thing that really stands out is the Lions bad pass defense. We need to take a closer look at this game, after the jump.
While the Packers lead the league in sacks allowed, the Lions lead the league in a more important stat; points allowed. That seems a little odd since their defense doesn't look that bad. At least it looks a lot better than last season. Imagine the worst defense you can, then double it (maybe triple it) and that's the Lions 2008 defense. One reason for the turnaround is the arrival of Jim Schwartz, their new head coach who was previously the defensive coordinator for the Titans. However, Schwartz doesn't play on the field. Looking at their current stats, their top 8 defensive players, as ranked by tackles recorded, are all new guys. They added some free agents (LB Larry Foote, ex-Packers SS Marquand Manuel and DE Jason Hunter, and CB William James), made a couple trades (LB Julian Peterson, CB Anthony Henry), and picked up a couple guys in the draft (2nd round S Louis Delmas and 3rd round LB DeAndre Levy). It's not the next Steel Curtain, but they're playing better than last season.
However they are still giving up a lot of passing yards, and QB Aaron Rodgers should have better pass protection on Sunday with the likely return of LT Chad Clifton. The Lions pass defense has given up 15 TD passes and only 3 INTs, a 119.7 QB rating against, highest in the league. The yardage might not kill them, but all those TDs might. The Lions pass defense statistically looks worse than the Rams, and Rodgers had 13 completions and 2 TDs against them. And that was despite a couple drops from his receivers.
Although the Lions are giving up fewer yards rushing, teams haven't run the ball that often against them either. The Lions are allowing a terrible 4.9 yards/carry against, which should help even RB Ryan Grant have a solid game.
While their offense has shown some signs of life moving the ball, they are having a hard time hanging on to it. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford has dropped back to pass 150 times this season, and has 10 sacks, 6 INTs and 2 fumbles. So something bad happens to him about once a quarter. With Stafford's injury, QB Daunte Culpepper might be under center and he isn't any better, with 57 dropbacks for 7 sacks, 1 INT and 3 fumbles. Something bad happens to him almost twice as often. Still they've managed 103 points which is 19th best (by average) in points.
While the Lions have amassed a decent amount of total yards running the ball, it takes them a lot of carries. Leading rusher RB Kevin Smith has a miserable 3.1 yards/attempt. Despite the high total yards the Packers have surrendered against opposing running backs, I'm very optimistic about their run defense after it stopped RB Adrian Peterson two weeks ago in Minneapolis.
While I'm not a huge fan of SS Atari Bigby, his likely return is great news. The Packers pass defense struggled two weeks ago because of SS Derrick Martin, who was benched mid-game. And that came on the heels of the poor start by SS Aaron Rouse, and now current NY Giant, against the Bengals. While the Packers pass defense should be much improved, the Lions are likely to be without star WR Calvin Johnson. Still they managed almost 300 yards passing last week against the Steelers with nothing from him. The Packers may give up some yards passing, but they'll hopefully be able to take advantage of turnovers by Culpepper.
If you're looking for the special teams to provide an X-factor in this game; don't. The Packers haven't gotten anything positive, and only some negative, from them this season. It's worse for the Lions because the special teams just collapsed last week against the Steelers.
The Lions remind me of the Bears offense, combined with the Rams defense, two teams the Packers have beaten this season. Packers 38, Lions 17.
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Well written write-up
You mentioned that Aaron Rouse is now a current Giant, do you man he is starting for N.Y.?
Green and Gold / Black, and White
by OznCoop on Oct 16, 2009 8:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rouse is behind C.C. Brown on the depth chart,
but Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury, meaning Rouse gets plenty of PT. I saw him on the screen during the aftermath of several Giants sacks over the past few weeks.
"Brandon Jennings needs a nickname before he gives himself one. Oh wait, Young Money, he already did."
by Mitchell_M on Oct 16, 2009 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you'll see him
Getting burned up BADLY by Brees this week if he’s out there. Honestly, I still think dumping him was the wrong move. While he was not great, he was far better than anyone else we had back there. Should have kept him at least until Bigby was better. -1 for TT on that move.
by TrevorR on Oct 16, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't care about letting Rouse go, he was worthless.
But I think they should have kept Anthony Smith.
by Charlie Kelly on Oct 16, 2009 9:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Granted he’s not even cracking the lineup in St. Louis right now but I still think he would have done well here filling in for Bigby.
by TrevorR on Oct 16, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
TT's cuts
are any of the cuts TT made even playing anywhere else (i.e. Rouse, Sutton, Meredith, etc.)?
How about Anthony Smith?
I don’t think any of them have played this year.
by Acme on Oct 16, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rouse is playing
Sutton, Smith, Ruvell Martin, Meredith are all inactives. I’m pretty sure the Packer cuts were given looks, but there weren’t any real candidates there.
"Brandon Jennings needs a nickname before he gives himself one. Oh wait, Young Money, he already did."
by Mitchell_M on Oct 16, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rams safties
They have a pretty good tandem. Atogwe and Butler I believe. We FOR SURE should have kept Smith.
by packallday555 on Oct 16, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hope
I hope Packers start playing like they want to win something this season. You see some teams, like the Patriots, have tough game after tough game and they fight to win every game. We don’t have that urgency, which I attribute to youth.
This Lions team is not great, but they are fighting. If the game is close in the 4th quarter we will be in trouble.
We need R. Grant to start playing nasty or B-Jack will start taking reps from him. B-Jack isn’t great, but he seems to fight for yards more than Wynn or Grant.
If our O-Line does poorly this week we are in for a very very long season. And Tausch won’t be able to do anything about it. I think Colledge is a dud, get Lang in there.
I am excited to get Q out there. Screw the zone blocking, Grant will run better with someone blasting LB’s out of the way. Q may screw up some blitz pickups at first, but he is a much better long term option for FB.
We need 8 quarters of great effort, even if we are destroying the Lions and Browns, to have a chance at beating the Vikings. These young guys need to learn to finish games and give it there all, like C-Wood does.
Coaches should simplify the game and let these guys go all out, they are very talented.
by Acme on Oct 16, 2009 11:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I am excited to get Q out there. Screw the zone blocking, Grant will run better with someone blasting LB’s out of the way. Q may screw up some blitz pickups at first, but he is a much better long term option for FB.
Is he playing this week? Haha you just got me really excited by saying that and I’m going to be really disappointed if he isn’t haha.
But seriously why isn’t he playing? What was the point of drafting a FB when we already had 2 solid ones if we weren’t going to try and go another route?
by packallday555 on Oct 16, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's because
Hall and Kuhn are both pretty good special teams players and Q isn’t. Based on reading the practice and camp reports, it also sounds like Q gets a lot of assignments wrong (Jermichael Finley last season) and the fundamentals aren’t there yet. I forgot if it was Bedard but they said in the running back drill where the backs have to stay low to go under the contraption, Q couldn’t even get low enough and kept on hitting it when no one else has ever had that problem. I think the Packers should get him a good amount of PT these next two games with Hall out and see if he adds a spark to the run game. I just feel like he’s this years version of Finley and will be very productive with a season under his belt.
by GGGamer on Oct 16, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
We might as well play him this year. He may make mistakes in blitz pickups and what not but honestly both Hall and Kuhn whiff on blocks all the time. I just see absolutely NO point in having 3 FBs on the team. I also see no point in taking a FB when you already have 2 unless you have big plans for this. We could have used the pick on Q on an o-lineman instead.
by packallday555 on Oct 16, 2009 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson will be active this week...
and probably next week too. Hall is out “a couple weeks” with a calf sprain. Should be a good opportunity to see how he responds. In the preseason, he looked like a boy among men. It wasn’t even close. I remember the same thing GGGamer pointed out, where Johnson repeatedly failed to execute that relatively simple drill in camp. They must have seen some improvement from that performance, otherwise they would have cut him.
He can play the position, physically. It’s just a question of him settling his mind and emotions down and playing with his head. That could happen slowly or really quickly. Obviously, the Packers would like it to happen at about 12:10pm on Sunday. I don’t think it’s going to be that easy, but we can all hope.
by RobertArthur on Oct 16, 2009 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple plays
I’m no fan of Johnson. But he did make a couple great lead blocks during the preseason, so I can see why they are keeping him around. But there were several times when it seemed like he didn’t make plays.
He can play the position, physically. It’s just a question of him settling his mind and emotions down and playing with his head.I was going to say he’s inconsistent, but your comment is pretty much the same thing. Of course, I still don’t know why FB Korey Hall was benched, so what do I know.
by Brandon on Oct 17, 2009 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fretful Haiku
This game scares me some
Packers have too much to lose
Lion in the weeds?
http://PackerHaiku.com
Clark Osborn - PackerHaiku.com | FavreHaiku.com | BadgerHaiku.com
by PackerHaiku on Oct 16, 2009 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Culpepper vs Stafford
The quality of the opponents played between the two is what causes the discrepancy in the stats. Culpepper played against CHI for a quarter and PIT. Stafford played against NO, MIN, and WAS. All of Culpepper’s miscues came against the Steelers (had none against the Bears), while most of Stafford’s came in two games, against Chicago and Minnesota. I have a hard time saying that Culpepper is twice as mistake prone when you factor in the number of bad games they’ve had.
Between the two, as mentioned in another thread, I’d rather play Stafford than Culpepper. Culpepper’s running abilities worry me, because those scampers really hurt blitzes.
by Danwood on Oct 16, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Stafford > Culpepper
Did you see this play last week?
1-10-PIT 28 (:47) 11-D.Culpepper to PIT 33 for – 5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PIT 35. 11-D.Culpepper pass intended for 80-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Clark at PIT 22. 25-R.Clark to PIT 22 for no gain (80-B.Johnson).
Awful decision making, miserable interception. Very charitable of the PBP to name anyone as the intended receiver. Clark was the only player on the field that had any chance at the ball.
Stafford isn’t as accurate as he needs to be passing, but even now I think he’s probably a better QB than Culpepper.
by DaveInTucson on Oct 16, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In general, yes
But playing us? Perhaps you didn’t see the pass rush in the Minnesota game. Well, actually, I don’t think any of us saw the pass rush in the Minny game. Yeah, he made some mistakes, but he also had 3 rushes for 44 yards, which is only 6 yards short of what Stafford has put up all season long on 7 scrambles.
In other words, don’t look past Culpepper. I know he’s a cast off and several years out of his prime, but he’s back into shape and still versatile enough to keep the Lions within a score of the defending SB champs.
by Danwood on Oct 16, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh I don't know
I’m not sure if you can blame the fumble on Culpepper. Did you see the way his o-line blocked for him at the end of the game? Basically they didn’t. Also, he has struggled in the past with reading coverage, and throwing picks as a result of not being able to. His pick against the Lions was not because of this he was just trying to throw it away. Now it was probably the worst attempt I have ever seen by a QB to throw the ball away but still.
He actually looks like he is in really good shape, and he kept the Lions in that game. I’m more scared of him then Stafford for sure. Stafford is usually good for at least 1 INT a game, and against our secondary it would probably be 2-3. But like I pointed out above Culpepper also struggles with reading coverage, and with Bigby back hopefully he will struggle against our zone blitzes. Them not having Johnson would help things out tremendousely as well.
by packallday555 on Oct 16, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Without Calvin Johnson
I don’t really care who the QB is. Both QB’s are in the bottom tier of QB’s in the league right now and without their only good weapon in CJ, I don’t see much hope for either of them on Sunday.
by GGGamer on Oct 16, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Decision making
I’m not sure if you can blame the fumble on Culpepper.
My problem is what he did /after/ he recovered the fumble. Run with it? Fine. Toss it out of bounds? No problem. Throw it all the way across the field to where there are way more Steelers than Lions? Fail
Also, wrt Danwood’s post: certainly he’s got some athletic ability even now. But his decision making is so bad enough to offset, especially when Megatron is not available to throw to.
by DaveInTucson on Oct 16, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
Haha ya like I pointed out his attempt to throw that ball away was horrible. The only reason Pepper scares me a bit is because we have struggled against Qb’s who can run.
by packallday555 on Oct 16, 2009 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This game makes me nervous.
Not as much as a Bears game, but they’re still a division rival and shit happens. I still think the Packers should contact Allan Rossum about coming in as our return guy since Will Blackmon is out for the season. He led the NFL in return yards last year with the 49ers. I don’t think we should have let him go in the first place. I thought he and Corey Bradford were awesome new developing players. I hope that Capers has fixed some of the problems our D is having,and hopefully Clifton will be healthy again. I would like Barbre to extend the line on his side as well. One of the sacks of Aaron they showed, him and Spitz were in the pocket and Spitz didn’t have anyone to block. I don’t want Aaron to be an option QB, but he could have pulled it down got on Spitz’s shoulder and made 10 yards. A lot of improvements can be fixed during a bye week, look for the Packers to make a great run for the rest of the season!
by biggun33 on Oct 16, 2009 9:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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