Preview: Green Bay Packers at Vikings

by Brandon on Oct 2, 2009 8:00 AM CDT in Analysis Comment 42 comments

My pessimism level is high for the game at Mall of America Field next Monday night. For two reasons: 1) the offensive line has looked bad, at times; and 2) the team really struggled in their game last season in Minnesota. But I'm coming around to the fact that it could be a heck of a game. Their last three meetings under the dome have been close, within one score. But what really turned me into an optimist was when looked at the stats.

I took a hard look at the stats available at Football Outsiders. Team passing ranks out of 32 teams:

Team	Pass Offense	Pass Defense	QB	WR	OL Pass Protect	DL Pass Protect
Packers	10	5	12	4 and 19	32	18
Vikings	15	7	15	20 and 38	28	5

According to FO, the 4th best WR so far this season is WR Donald Driver. Despite all the 50 yard catches by WR Greg Jennings (ranked No. 19 overall), Driver has outplayed him this season. The top two receivers for the Vikings are WR Percy Harvin (No. 20) and WR Sidney Rice (No. 38).

The Packers pass offense has done well, in large part because they've avoided any INTs this season, but the Vikings pass defense is very good and they've been getting after the QB. That is a bad matchup for the Packers, who currently are the worst team in the NFL at protecting the QB.

The same can be said for the Vikings. The Packers don't have as many sacks, but the Vikings aren't doing a good job at stopping the pass rush either. QB Brett Favre has been playing it safe in the passing attack, and he'll have to avoid taking any risks because the Packers' secondary has been very opportunistic this season. Both teams will struggle to pass the ball.

The analysis of the running game, and the rest of the preview, are after the jump.

More stats from Football Outsiders:

Team	Run Offense	Run Defense	RB	OL Run Block	DL Run Block
Packers	6	15	17	18	18
Vikings	14	6	5	8	5

This might not make much sense at first. How can the Vikings be the No. 14 run offense when RB Adrian Peterson is the 5th best RB? How can the Packers be so much better when RB Ryan Grant is only the 17th best RB? The answer: Peterson is getting no help from his teammates. RB Chester Taylor is averaging only 2.4 yards/carry. Meanwhile, Rodgers has 88 yards rushing (5.9/carry avg.) and a TD. Also, FB John Kuhn ran for a TD on his only carry of the season. The Packers run defense has allowed two 100 yard rushers in their first three games, but that's still good enough for just below average. The Vikings will have some success against them, when they're handing the ball off to Peterson, but the Packers can be productive too despite the excellent Vikings run defense.

For an added edge, despite the blocked FG attempt that the 49ers returned for a TD last week, Football Outsiders currently has the Vikings ranked 2nd best on special teams. The Packers are way down at No. 26. The one thing both teams have in common is that they are among the worst when punting and on punt coverage. K Mason Crosby is ranked low right now due a missed PAT. For the Vikings, their strength is in the return game. WR Percy Harvin had a kickoff return for a TD last week, and WR Darius Reynaud is one of the best punt returners in the league, although he might be hobbled by a leg injury.

Neither team is an offensive juggernaut at the moment. The Packers offense has played better over the first three games, but the Vikings present the biggest defensive challenge they've faced so far this season. Still, it's hard to tell if the Vikings defense is really as good as their stats indicate. Their first three games were against three of the worst offenses in the NFL, and the best offensive player they've faced so far this season, RB Frank Gore, was injured on the first series of the game. Still, the Vikings offense could easily outplay the Packers, but only if Peterson carries the offense on his back.

The Packers offense is going to have to produce if they are going to win this game. No lead will be safe until the Packers score 30+ points. I'm still not overly optimistic, but there's no way I'm picking the Vikings. Packers 31, Vikings 27.

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That's the Fan in You

I’d love the Packers to win, but like you, I’m not feeling real good about this game. I fear that Childress has been playing possum with his offense against the three weak sisters that the Vikings have played so far — did you notice how when Favre had to throw to pull out the SF game, he was able to do it? I don’t like the offensive line, because even were it completely healthy, it just hasn’t played very well. Defensively, we have to contain Peterson, but then if we load up in the box are we setting ourselves up for one of the Favre games?

I look at it this way: In a friendly atmosphere, I’d vote for the Packers to win a close one. However, if I had to bet $1,000 on the game, I’m afraid I’d go with the Vikings.

by ktenreb on Oct 2, 2009 8:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Valid points

While Favre did end up pulling it out, he did struggle in the game. It was when the 49ers went into their prevent defense when Favre started to look great as most QBs do. You just take the underneath and generally gain 8-15 yards, and then once your down close enough to the endzone, you take your shot.

Before Favre’s last two drives against the 49ers prevent defense, he was 15 of 30, and had thrown for 194 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Those numbers were him playing pretty much exclusively against the 49ers 3-4 defense, with some sub packages in there as well.

I think that’s definitely good news for us. We have been rushing the passer relatively well, and I think Capers will return to his aggressive style Monday night. Now we’ll need to contain AP to a degree to force Favre to pass, and I’m not sure whether or not we’ll be able to do that.

So while I think Favre will throw 2 picks in this one, it will really come down to how we can contain AP, and how well we are playing on offense.

Of course this one has a great chance of being a close one, and if Favre is in a situation similar to the one he was in, in the 49ers game, it will be scary. We will likely go with our prevent defense as well, and Favre has been in this league long enough to know how to shred the prevent defenses up.

I just want it to be Monday already!

by packallday555 on Oct 2, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was a pretty bogus pick though...

Bounced high off of a pair of shoulder pads that should have caught the ball… This is going to be a good game. I hope everybody stays healthy through the whole thing so we can have a decent baramoter for NFC North Supremecy.

by ctowner35 on Oct 2, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

In regards to the bogus pick, but there were about three more dropped.

by GGGamer on Oct 2, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Yeah and he's got bad breath too

Nothing about the guy is acceptable to you.

by ktenreb on Oct 2, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

buddy...

…we get it. you don’t like this guy (or FavreSucks) but do you have to make a comment on EVERY LITTLE THING the guy says? many of your other posts are very intelligent and well thought out but your tormenting of this guy is just too much. i understand having a different point of view, believe me, but there was absolutely nothing inflammatory in his comment right there. brett doesn’t need you to protect him, he’s a big boy and can take care of himself.

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Oct 2, 2009 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks verno

I’ve come to grips that the guy is legitimately obsessed with my friend and I so I’m just gonna keep on posting, and when he responds to me, I’m just gonna keep on ignoring as well. Thanks for looking out though.

by GGGamer on Oct 2, 2009 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

its cuz

he eats viking sh*t now

nothing smellier than that

by PackaCracka on Oct 2, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

seriously...

you are going to call THAT one a bogus pick but not mention all the others that were easy picks? An INT is an INT…simple as that. Many have called his game against the 9ers his worst of the year…yet its all overshadowed by one throw.

by TrevorR on Oct 2, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Unknown

This is the first game in a long time that I don’t have a single feeling on how the game is going to go. It should be a hard fought, close game similar to the last couple in the dome but more and more I think it may to turn into a stinker with neither team playing well. Hopefully Favre does what he always does in meaningful games at the dome by making a few ill-advised throws leading to a couple of picks. My prediction is Pack 27 Vikings 20

by Dogg Pound on Oct 2, 2009 8:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I Feel You

I thought, after the Rams game, that the Vikings had a nice advantage in this matchup. Now with the week going by and listening to all of the Packers players support Rodgers and the crap that he had to go through last year with fans blasting him even though he had nothing to do with what went on, I thought the Packers would be more intense and win it. Now I’m not so sure either way. I just think it is gonna be close like the Bears game. I could see either team pull it out.

I will say this though. If the Packers offensive line comes together finally, I think the Packers have a better shot at winning it. If the o-line continues to be a sieve, I see the Vikings with the better shot. I just hope Campen has his guys ready to come out and knock some heads around and defend is honor a little bit as well for getting thrown under the bus on Greta Van Susteren. If the team comes together and fights for Rodges, Campen and themselves, I think the Packers win.

by GGGamer on Oct 2, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;ylt=ArWPDzaUncuRw8vLCIHiFJDubYF?slug=ms-thegameface100209&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

This story has GREAT parallels between the Favre/Rodgers saga and what happened with Montana and Young from a guy who followed it closely as a local writer…

by TrevorR on Oct 2, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

very good article

think it will hold true for both teams as well.

Viqueens rally around Favre

Pack rally around Rodgers.

by Acme on Oct 2, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great Article

Thanks TrevorR. That was a good read. Made me even more excited for Monday.

by GGGamer on Oct 2, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The First Game!!

If Childress follows his standard play calling, such as: Run, Run, Pass, Punt…. an his “Let us try a new ploy: Adrian, run the right end lickity split,” “Ooops, where did that big, ugly linebacker come from”……… Chester didn’t have his Wheaties this Morning, so let us try Percy Waaaay back in the Far corner,NOT that far, You are in the Parking Lot!! The environmental colored Packers just might pull off a surprise……

by deertracks on Oct 2, 2009 11:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If Childress follows his standard play calling, such as: Run, Run, Pass, Punt…. an his “Let us try a new ploy: Adrian, run the right end lickity split,” “Ooops, where did that big, ugly linebacker come from”……… Chester didn’t have his Wheaties this Morning, so let us try Percy Waaaay back in the Far corner,NOT that far, You are in the Parking Lot!! The envermental colored Packers just might pull off a surprise……

by deertracks on Oct 2, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Monday Night Haiku

Favre might win Monday
But woe unto his return
Favre Black Sunday comes
http://FavreBlackSunday.com
http://FavreHaiku.com

Clark Osborn - PackerHaiku.com | FavreHaiku.com | BadgerHaiku.com

by PackerHaiku on Oct 2, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

wh00!

viqueens and favre blew their emotional load last week. there’s no way they match the intensity and duty the packers will posess. fuzzy thurston doesn’t even have a voicebox, yet he’s screaming “Kill em!!!” that’s power those to the immediate west don’t have or understand. the packers will win. and win big.

by warvette on Oct 2, 2009 3:56 PM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

you're kidding, right?

Nothing will compare to the emotional intensity of Monday night for both teams.

by starmark on Oct 2, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

Actually, if you have to say anything about the emotionally intensity of the Vikings offesne last Sunday, it’s that it was on low simmer for the first 58 1/2 minutes — not high burn.

by puddnhead on Oct 2, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly

It should be simple to predict the outcome of this game. Some people say they don’t know what will happen. Some people claim the Packers will win. Once again, this is human nature showing our desire for an optimistic future.

Vikings will win this one comfortably. Packers will not be able to protect Rodgers and they will not stop Adrian Peterson. The evidence is clear. The likely outcome is set.

by starmark on Oct 2, 2009 3:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If Rodgers can get rid of ball quickly & let his receivers get lots of YAC as they often do

then the prosepcts are better. But I agree with you, the likely story line will be the Vikings D line overwhelming the Packers O-line, and in between, favre handing off to Peterson and Taylor to grind out just enough points to bury Pack by the 4th.

by puddnhead on Oct 2, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ha

when has a NFC North game ever been easy?

let me guess, you think the Vikings will win the SB this year comfortably?

even when the Packers were dominating the ’90’s, the usually lost to bad Vikings teams.

sorry, but if you are that ‘comfortable’ about this game I don’t believe you have any clue about football or any respect for the rivalries in the NFCN.

that being said, I do believe the Vikings win, BUT it won’t be comfortable.

read the Yahoo Sports article listed above, may change your mind about the ‘comfortable’ win you refer to.

by Acme on Oct 2, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comfortable Win?

Why are some of you guys so inebriated in the Vikings greatness?

Let me clarify that I think the Vikings are a good team, with that said, they beat the lowly Browns, Lions, and Gore-less 49ers, and so many of you are crowning them Super Bowl champs already. Every game in the NFC North is a fight so for you to sit there and say people are delusional in thinking this will be a good game is ridiculous. Even the Lions almost beat the Vikings both games last season and almost beat the Bears in another. I would like to think that the Packers are better than the Lions but that could just be based upon my delusional optimism (sarcasm).

by GGGamer on Oct 2, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I agree

I have to hear friends and coworkers all day in their brand new Brett Favre jerseys talking about how great this team is and how they’ll be going to the Superbowl while crushing every team in their path. This team still has a very suspect secondary, Pat Williams looks like he’s starting to decline after he stopped taking his HGH. They do have a great pass rush with Allen and Kevin Williams but if a team can hold them back they will get picked apart.

Now seeing as two weeks ago, the Packers line made Antwan Odom look like Reggie White, I doubt we’re going to be able to stop Allen. This will be a close game and a lot of people seem to be overlooking the Packers, the fan in me thinks the Packers win but realistically, I don’t have enough confidence in the offensive line protecting Rodgers long enough for him to take advantage of their secondary.

by Charlie Kelly on Oct 3, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Post Charlie

I know people will take this as Favre hate, but whatever. I have a few Vikings friends in the Milwaukee area and they all have this invincibility mentality when it comes to the Vikings going to the Super Bowl. I’ve told them all to look at Favre’s playoff history since the Denver Super Bowl. Favre’s literally thrown multiple picks to lose playoff game after playoff game for the last 12 years. Also, espn had an article in May about his failures in the final month of the season over the last 5 seasons and the stats were remarkable.

They compared it to the other Pro Bowl QB’s in the same time frame and Favre has gotten drastically worse in the last month of the season. Even in 07’ his stats the last month were poor. The other QB’s declined in some areas and improved in others but no one dropped off even close to Favre has. I just think with his playoff history, Childress basically being a moron, and my opinion that the Saints and Giants are better than the Vikings, I’m not concerned about them doing damage in the playoffs at all.

And I agree with you, as a fan I would love to think the Packers will win, but I give the edge to the Vikings.

by GGGamer on Oct 3, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The worst part about this whole thing

is how so many Vikings fans completely loathed Favre for his entire Packers career. But now, those same people that gave me crap about being a fan have their heads so firmly lodged up his ass, I’m wondering if these lofty Superbowl expectations are caused by a lack of oxygen to their brains. I suppose it’s no different than the Packers fans who went from loving Favre to hating him but either way it bugs the crap out of me to hear some Viking fan wearing a Favre jersey tell me about how great the guy is.

by Charlie Kelly on Oct 3, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Classic

I know exactly what you’re saying. It bugs the crap out of me to. My good friends down the street have a basement devoted to the Vikings and they use to joke, when the Pack and Vikings played, that Favre would throw multiple picks to lose the game. Now, surprise surprise, they think Favre is gonna lead them to the Super Bowl and his turnover ways are behind him. They’re Favre drunk right now. Let’s just hope in the end they have a major hangover and not because I hate Favre but because I hate the Vikings.

by GGGamer on Oct 3, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, we loathe AP

and not for one second would I think of turning him away if Ted Thompson was able to snag him. Those people who suddenly love Favre are fans of the team, as the team suddenly has Favre. I don’t hold it against them, because I know if I were in their situation (having to choose between T-Jack, Sage, or JDB), I would be suddenly in love with Favre too.

by Danwood on Oct 3, 2009 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't loathe AP

Even though he’s the best player on a team I hate. The only players I don’t like in the entire NFL are Cutler and Jared Allen. And I can say regardless of their talent levels, I wouldn’t like or support either of them on the Packers.

by Charlie Kelly on Oct 4, 2009 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah but

its not a set outcome if its considered “likely”

by PackaCracka on Oct 2, 2009 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

acme

Just what is this “Viqueen” bit? I could think up some not so nice names for the Cheezeheads….like GreenBay Slackers……………or others not so nice…………

by deertracks on Oct 2, 2009 6:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

play-on

play-on word.

that is all really.

i think it is kind of funny without being inappropriate.

i mean, you do have long hair with braids.

just saying….

by Acme on Oct 2, 2009 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not feeling great about this game either...

… but I’d bet a lot that the Vikings pass defense rating is a product of their opponents. The best thing about their pass defense is their pass rush. That secondary can be had. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that the Packers will pass protect well enough for it to matter.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 2, 2009 7:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Thank you!

No one is talking about that! The Vikings boast about being 3-0. They should be 3-0. They played garbage teams. The Packers are the first decent team they will play this year. The 49ers are decent with Frank Gore, but without him they are just as bad as the Browns. Especially because they planned all week for a game with Gore, than were forced to adjust to a game without their star player.

Their pass defense is only ranked highly because they have played a rookie, a first year starter, and a run first team without their running back. Truth be told, they should have the #1 defense in the league after facing those opponents, but they don’t. Their D is softer than last year. It can and will be exploited.

by StephanL on Oct 2, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're underrating the Niners.

They’re a solid team, though obviously worse without Gore than they would have been with them. But the Niners best WR is their TE, and he tore them up and kept them in the game when the Niners couldn’t run the ball anad had virtually no threats at WR.

The point is that the best QB/WR combos they’ve played thus far is Stafford and Johnson in Detroit. Rodgers/Driver/Jennings are better than the rest by magnitudes. Johnson’s got more talen than any WR on GB, but he’s young and Stafford limits his ability at this point. In short, the Vikings DBs haven’t really been tested yet. If the OL can hold up (and I doubt they can) Rodgers will have the chance to make some plays downfield. And even if that doesn’t happen this week, the Vikings defensive backfield will be exposed eventually…

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 2, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Niners are for real

I live in the SF Bay Area, and have seen all of the Niner games. They are for real, and their coach is a very very good leader. Wish the Packers had him.

They will win their division and be tough in the playoffs. Lack of playoff experience for Shaun Hill will be their downfall.

I do agree that Vikings are not as good as last year on defense (but the are very good). Will say it again, the Williams Wall on steroids is better than the William Wall NOT on steroids. Which of course they are off steroids right now.

by Acme on Oct 2, 2009 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Niners are really good BUT

If any team in the NFL couldn’t afford to lose a guy, it would be the 49ers and Frank Gore. The guy produced statistically a larger percentage of his teams offense than any other player in the league. The 49ers don’t have any good wideouts so their offense is almost completely predicated on their run game and Vernon Davis.

Not only did losing Gore hurt their offense because Hill and the wideouts aren’t gonna strike fear in anyone’s heart, but it hurt their defense because they didn’t have their time consuming ball control offense in tact. The 49ers are a really good team with Gore but I personally think they are mediocre without him. That is why I’m not sold on the Vikings being a great team yet. They played two terrible teams and a good team made mediocre without their best player.

by GGGamer on Oct 3, 2009 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about now?

35-0 is pretty good in the NFL.

Held S-Jack to 79 yds, controlled the clock, etc.

Niners are for real.

LB’s for Niners are waaaaay better than ours.

Heard Trent Dilfer today, who I think is a smart analyst, said he studied Packers this week and believes the LB’s on our team are horrible. Part of it could be that they are not comfortable in system yet, but so far they are horrible.

by Acme on Oct 5, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we'll win...

If our receivers catch like they did in the preseason. They’re just too good at beating guys to be stopped.

by BSGorilla on Oct 2, 2009 7:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

holy cow, are you

guys quiet, or what/

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com

by Jon Johnston on Oct 5, 2009 7:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Favre

He looks good now…but the Vikings better hope they have a good back-up, because he’ll never last through 16 games. He’ll start pushing it, and making errors. On another note, just think what Rodgers could have done with the protection Favre had.

by E H on Oct 6, 2009 12:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs