Another Fantasy Question For Y'all

by Mitchell_M on Oct 20, 2009 1:49 PM CDT Comment 25 comments

Hey, gang. Once again, I find myself incapable of making an independent decision, so I turn to you. If you're not interested in hearing about fantasy football, go ahead and click that 'back' button on your browser. If you are, read on.

This league is my oldest one, having run since high school. I've never won the championship, although I came tantalizingly close during a two-loss campaign in 2006. Yes, the second loss was in the playoffs. So I'm definitely looking to finally bring home that hardware so that I can be obnoxious on the league's message boards. Much like I am here! Hooray, consistency!

The issue I have is to try and choose between the short-term and long-term. My team is currently 2-4 in a five-team division. There are two other 2-4 teams, one 3-3, and one 5-1. The top two teams get into the playoffs, making it a very real possibility, but I'll need some help to push me over the edge.

That's the short-term aspect of it. The long-term is that this league is a keeper league. We are allowed to keep up to 3 players on our roster at the end of the season. The price is that you forfeit a draft pick in the round which that player was chosen. For instance, if you keep Tom Brady and took him in the 3rd round in 2009, you lose a 3rd round pick in the 2010 draft. For subsequent years, the price increases by two rounds. If you kept Tom Brady for 2011, you would lose a 1st round pick that year.

The best part about these rules is that if you keep someone you plucked off of waivers, the price for keeping a player is your last draft pick. For instance, last year I found Chris Johnson on waivers during week 2. Had we been using the keeper league rules, I could have him this year for the low, low price of a 17th (!) round pick. I could keep Johnson for three years before he cost me a draft pick higher than the 10th round. That's value.

So with all that in mind, this year I drafted talent early and keepers in the middle rounds to sustain my fantasy success in subsequent years. I've made some trades and made some waiver wire pickups, and I think I have a decent roster right now, both in terms of production and keeper value. Here's who I have where, with the round the player was drafted in attached in parentheses. Keeper candidates are in bold.

QB: Tom Brady (3), Mark Sanchez (13)
RB: Steve Slaton (3), Ray Rice (9), Donald Brown (6), Jerome Harrison (waivers)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (1), Calvin Johnson (2), Anthony Gonzalez (5), Steve Smith - Giants (waivers), Johnny Knox (waivers), Miles Austin (waivers)
TE: Dustin Keller (15), John Carlson (waivers)
D/ST: 49ers (waivers), Bengals (waivers)
K: none (I routinely drop kickers, most recently Matt Prater, who's on a bye.)

So, as you can see, I have keeper candidates at all three key positions. As it stands, I'm leaning very heavily towards tagging Ray Rice, despite the presence of Willis McGahee. He's just too good. As for the other six players, I'm undecided.

Bringing us full circle, here's my dilemma. I have been offered a trade for Rashard Mendenhall for Johnny Knox, straight up. This is a good trade for this season, as I have the WR depth to spare and desperately need RB help. Past this season, Mendenhall would be a decent keeper option as well, considering he was a 9th round pick. Also, Willie Parker is fast on the decline, leaving Mendenhall as the sole back in Pittsburgh's run offense.

Should I make the trade? I like Johnny Knox's chances playing with Jay Cutler, considering he's a deep burner. But I also have Gonzalez, Smith, and Austin at WR, who might be as good or better options for 2010 and beyond. Keeping both Rice and Mendenhall would mean I would definitely have to keep one of my young WRs, thus abandoning hope for Mark Sanchez or Donald Brown, who I think will be high-middle round picks next season.

I'm open to any and all suggestions, and I welcome you to pose your fantasy football questions in the comments section.

Poll

Johnny Knox for Rashard Mendenhall: pull the trigger?

Yes

58 votes

No

12 votes

70 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 25 comments | Share

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Comments

Mendenhall is 4th

on your team.

Slaton, Rice, and Brown are better then Mendenhall.

Their lines are better on the other teams as well.

Knox is better, maybe send a counter and try to get a better TE, your TE’s are average at best.

by Acme on Oct 20, 2009 2:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the only TE this guy has

is Jermichael Finley, who I love, but is actually less consistent than Carlson.

"Brandon Jennings needs a nickname before he gives himself one. Oh wait, Young Money, he already did."

by Mitchell_M on Oct 20, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Football Outsiders says

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/te

Finley is better than Carlson.

Just sayin…

Finley’s #’s have been going up each week and he is getting more and more looks.

Has to be one of the most athletic TE’s in the league. You know this though.

Again, Mendenhall, look at who he played against, crappy teams.

by Acme on Oct 21, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I have Carlson and Finely and had to drop one this week so I could pick up a K, and I decided to stick with Finely for the rest of the year. He is starting to play much more, and has been very consistent since.

Mendenhall has played against crappy teams but he is a really, really talented back.

by packallday555 on Oct 21, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you do the trade

your keepers (as I see it) are Rice, Brown, and Mendenhall at RB, and Megatron, Gonz, and Smith at WR. You can keep Filthy, but I’m still up in the air as how good he’ll be. Thus giving you the option to keep Slaton in the 3rd. You wouldn’t have to draft another RB as you’d have 4 starters.

Rice, Slaton, Brown Mendenhall and Megatron are all guys that will go in the first 3 rounds next year (as it stands right now) so you are getting 5 first-third rounders with a 2nd, a 3rd, a 5th, a 6th, and 2 9ths.

I’m pretty sure you’ll be able to nab a good QB in the 1st, a good TE in the 4th, and the rest you build for depth starting in the 7th.

I think you’d set yourself up not just for this year, but well for next year as well giving you a strong team that would compete.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Oct 20, 2009 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

After re-reading it, I did a terrible job explaining it

I only get 3 keepers, not 6.

"Brandon Jennings needs a nickname before he gives himself one. Oh wait, Young Money, he already did."

by Mitchell_M on Oct 20, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not a problem

Still do the trade, then you have Rice, Mendenhall, and Steve Smith as keepers. The reasoning remains the same, you will have top 5 round picks with 2 9ths and a 17th. Much better value.

You can then grab a #1 WR and a QB with your 1st 2 picks and be set as Rice will prove to be a mid to late 1st rounder next year and Mendenhall and mid 2nd.

by Hyatt on Oct 21, 2009 8:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm...

I dont agree that Mendenhall will go in the first 3 rounds next year. He has 165 yds against a horrible rush D (Chargers) 77 yds against DET and 62 yds against Browns.

Would you take Ryan Grant in the first 3 rounds? Grant will have better #’s vs. those teams.

Pittsburg is NOT a dominate rushing team anymore.

by Acme on Oct 21, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem in PIT is their O-Line

Sound familiar?

Big Ben was hit more than any other QB in the league last year despite their Super Bowl win, and their rushing game wasn’t really a factor last year either. I’d love to see Rodgers channel his inner Roethlisberger and lead us to a Super Bowl. But then again, the Steelers have a damn good defense (when Polamalu is playing)…one that last year was significantly better than the Pack’s is now.

"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker

by texwestern on Oct 21, 2009 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

keep Brady, Rice and Johnson

Rice will become the main back next year or even sooner this year.

by Ding57 on Oct 20, 2009 4:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So it's a 10 team league?

Is it PPR? I’m assuming not if felt the need to explain why you’d cover Rice for a 9th rounder. If it’s a PPR, that decision wouldn’t need an explanation.

Doesn’t look like you’d probably play either Mendenhall or Knox all that much this year. Mendenhall becomes your #3 RB in my opinion the minute he hits your roster, and there’s value to that. I like him at #3RB better than Knox as your #4 WR, but neither looks all that central ot your season this year.

I definitely wouldn’t cover Knox this offseason when I could cover Steve Smith NYG for a 17th rounder. Gonzalez and Austin probably give you enough depth at WR (assuming you start 2, if you start 3 WR and 2 RB, I’d be less inclined to cut the deal for depth purposes this yea alone). Personally, I’d probably do the trade, but I’m not sure I’d end up covering Mendenhall anyway. If it’s the kind of league where you can draft Fitzgerald, Megatron and Slaton 1,2,3, then those early picks are kind of important. Rice, Fitz and Megatron are fantastic covers, but if you wan’t an early pick I’d be inclined to cover Rice, Steve Smith and your preference of either Fitz or Megatron. If your league allows it, an evil-genius plan would be to cover one of your early pick WRs and then deal the other at a slightly reduced cost (say Johnson for a 3).

But I’m probably just really confused over the rules of your league.

Personally, I don't give a crap about Brett Favre.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 20, 2009 6:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You're not confused

I just didn’t explain it in detail. Here’s the abridged version:

1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K. No PPR. Standard yardage/TD scoring, but we get bonuses for longer plays (40+ runs, 50+ passes/catches). Draft picks are tradable assets, even several years in the future.

I’m almost definitely keeping Rice based on value. I cannot think of a better #2 RB, even though he’s filling the role of the #1 on my team (thanks Steve Slaton!)

As far as receivers go, I’d rank their value in terms of future production like this:

Gonzalez
Smith
Austin
Knox

But because I drafted Gonzalez in the fifth, he immediately gets taken down a peg when compared to the value I’d be getting for the other three (17th round picks). That’s where I have the problem: is giving up a 5th rounder worth not worrying about grabbing him in the 3rd or 4th? Then you combine that with the questions regarding Mark Sanchez and Donald Brown, who I really think has a chance to do some good things after Addai is gone/benched. Those other two keeper slots are going to be difficult.

As far as Fitzy and Megatron go, I wouldn’t be comfortable keeping them unless their draft slots were switched. I would almost definitely keep Fitzy if he were a second rounder, like I would almost never keep Megatron if he were a first rounder. Then again, how long is Fitzy gonna have Warner, and how long is Megatron gonna hold up before succumbing to Barry Sanders Syndrome?

"Brandon Jennings needs a nickname before he gives himself one. Oh wait, Young Money, he already did."

by Mitchell_M on Oct 20, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alright.

I see your point on not wanting to keep Megatron at that pick, but why not Fitz? I don’t think it matters who’s throwing the ball in Zona, particularly with Boldin on the other side. Fitz will put up numbers. If you’re considering letting Fitz walk so you can land a true #1RB, then keeping Mendenhall or Brown makes a lot less sense. I would think you’d be able to move Fitz for a second before your cut down date, since he’ll clearly be a 1 if he’s cut loose. As for Brown in general, I’m sort of convinced that Indy’s committing to the notion of a two headed backfield. I don’t see them annointing Brown any time soon. I’d be careful on Gonzalez too. Someone’s going to emerge dramatically at WR in Indy in the next couple of years, but it could just as easily be one of the two kids as Gonzalez. When you’ve only got 3 keeper spots, you’ve got to hit on them, and I think Brown and Gonzalez are both significant gambles, myself.

I really think Smith, barring injury, is an obvious choice given how little you have to give up to keep him. It’s possible I suppose that the Giants will opt for a Manningham/Nicks starting tandem, but I doubt it, and if not, Smith is an excellent cover. Barring something dramatic for some of these players in the second half, I’d probably cover Rice, Smith and Fitz myself, with Megatron and Brady as the alternatives to Fitz if you decide you don’t want to lose the #1.

Personally, I don't give a crap about Brett Favre.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 20, 2009 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody's going to make that trade for Fitzy...

…if I understand your suggestion correctly. They would be giving Mitchell a 2nd rounder in the trade you suggested, but then to keep him, they’d have to give up their first rounder as well.

And for the record, I’m the commissioner of this league.

"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker

by texwestern on Oct 21, 2009 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah you're right.

I misunderstood the rules.

Personally, I don't give a crap about Brett Favre.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 21, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you know what number pick you get before deciding your keepers?

Kind of a shame the Rockies aren't around to win it for Balloon Boy
-billyok

by blackoutsox on Oct 20, 2009 10:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker

by texwestern on Oct 21, 2009 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do the trade!

Mendenhall has both current and future value to your team. Knox is not going to start for this team this year and it would be quite a stretch to think about keeping him over your other options. On that team the keepers would make sense to be Brown, Mendenhall(depending on round) or Rice, and Smith.

One thing to remember with keeper leagues like this is you need to compare value over replacement. If you think Fitz will score 200 and the best that you think will be available is going to be a 180 point player then you would need to expect to for your keeper to outproduce his draft position by 20 or more points (Rice expected to score 175 7th round draft pick 150).

This team can get hot and make a run at the postseason with Brady and those WR. Keep at it!

by Dogg Pound on Oct 21, 2009 9:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I take this deal and have Rice, Mendenhall, and Smith as my keepers for next year. I think this is a very good move for your team.

by TrevorR on Oct 21, 2009 10:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

you gonna watch the game this week?

isn’t it all fantasy football if you don’t watch the games, Mitchell? and why are you asking- you’re an expert!

by warvette on Oct 21, 2009 1:08 PM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

His record would beg to differ.

He and I are tied at 2-4 in this league.

"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker

by texwestern on Oct 21, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you want to set me up with DirectTV

so that I have the option of watching someone other than the Giants/Jets/Eagles, be my guest.

Until then, I have to play the cards I’m dealt. Consider yourself lucky in that you’re able to watch your team play while I resort to other measures.

"Brandon Jennings needs a nickname before he gives himself one. Oh wait, Young Money, he already did."

by Mitchell_M on Oct 21, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I watch every game!

though I now have to drive 30 minutes an hour before gametime to get a seat. you can’t find a sportsbar? no wonder you’re so negative toward the packers and defend Vikings fans- you suck as a fan as well as a whatever it is you do here. holycrap, did that seem mean-spirited? that’s because it was!

by warvette on Oct 21, 2009 7:23 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs