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Preview: Green Bay Packers at Browns

Two weeks ago, the Browns had 193 yards of offense, went 4 for 16 on 3rd down, and QB Derek Anderson was 2 of 17 for 23 yards and 1 INT. Still, it was their first (and only) win of the season, 6 to 3 over the Bills. That's the high point of their season.

Since then they've lost another game in Pittsburgh, lost one of their best defensive players for the season, and been battling swine flu. Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off a dominant win against the Lions

This looks like it should be a lopsided game in favor of the Packers. Rankings from NFL.com (based on yards/game):

Team Run Offense Pass Offense Run Defense Pass Defense
Packers 19 10 16 10
Team Run Defense Pass Defense Run Offense Pass Offense
Browns 30 23 18 31

One item not listed above is the Browns special teams, which is ranked No. 1 according to Football Outsiders. But their key PR/KR Joshua Cribbs is playing with an unspecified knee injury.

Star-divide

RB Ryan Grant is probably having a better season then you think. He's currently ranked as the No. 15 RB by Football Outsiders, which is a dramatic improvement from his poor 2007 season. The Packers are ranked No. 10 overall running the ball by FO, which is higher than the NFL stats because the NFL's stats take into consideration that they aren't running the ball that much. No matter how you look at it, the Browns aren't stopping anybody from running against them. They're allowing 4.9 yards/carry and 165 yards/game. While Grant won't be carrying the offense, he'll certainly be contributing.

The Browns pass defense isn't awful, opposing QBs have a 87.0 QB rating with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. QB Aaron Rodgers hasn't had a problem throwing the ball against any opposing defense this season, so he should be productive. Also, the Browns only have 12 sacks in their first 6 games, but everyone gets a boost in their sack totals when they play the Packers. In the end, Rodgers will get his yards and the Packers will primarily move the ball through the air.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns have had some success running the ball. But it isn't from their top two RBs. RB Jamal Lewis has 3.5 yards/carry, and RB Jerome Harrison is at 3.7 yards/carry, while neither has a rushing TD. Their stats are getting a boost from Cribbs and his 12 carries for 101 yards. Their lone rushing TD this season came from their QB (Anderson). Meanwhile, the Packers run defense is starting to turn it up, holding RB Adrian Peterson to 25 carries for 55 yards three weeks ago, and getting into the backfield a lot last week against the Lions. While the rankings above show this to be a close matchup, the breakdown shows an edge for the Packers. It would be a surprise if the Browns rush for over 100 yards.

QB Derek Anderson has completed 41.7% of his passes this season. That has to be one of the all-time worst completion percentages. While he's never been an accurate QB, he's been a victim of a lot of drops, which still doesn't help them move the ball any. Their leading receiver is rookie 2nd round pick WR Mohamed Massaquoi, who is having a good rookie season, but no other receiver is really a threat. The Packers pass defense looks even better (No. 4 overall) at Football Outsiders because the NFL doesn't consider INTs or the Packers' ability to turn those into TDs. This doesn't look like the week the Browns will have a breakthrough in the passing game.

The Browns have been held to 6 points or fewer in half their games this season, with no more than 20 points in any single game. The Packers haven't been held under 21 points in a game this season, and have scored as much as 36. I'll split the difference. Browns 10, Packers 30.

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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Comments

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I live in derek anderson’s hometown. they think he’s great and blame the browns for his woes. a few years back, the same fanbase proclaimed that joey harrington was going to be the next favre- I really heard that. I kind of feel sorry for them that they’re football fans in a place that’s not too football knowledgeable.

by warvette on Oct 23, 2009 9:13 AM CDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Grant

Statistically Grant is having a good season, but if you watch him he’s really not running well. Its the same old stuff. That said, he’s bound to have a very nice game this week. Should be a nice win for the Packers.

by TrevorR on Oct 23, 2009 9:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If you take away

his big 4th quarter runs against terrible teams like the Rams and Lions, Grant wouldn’t be ranked 15th anyway. Through the first three quarters of every game you almost don’t expect him to get more than 2 or 3 yards.

by GGGamer on Oct 23, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Individual stats don't really do it for me

The primary team stat, W-L record, is what really matters. Grant could be #32 among starting RBs, but if the Packers were 5-0 I wouldn’t care.

Too bad there isn’t a way to remove garbage yards from those rankings, because I think you’d get a truer picture of Grant.

by Danwood on Oct 23, 2009 9:46 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but ideally you have your second and third stringers do that

Because your started ripped off 80 yards on 15 carries in the first half, 40 more on 8 carries in the third quarter, and you’re cruising for a win.

by Danwood on Oct 23, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great preview. Enjoyed reading it.

by IainLiddle on Oct 23, 2009 9:58 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

true...

but there is no way we’d be 5-0 without a running any running game. The running game starts becoming more and more important here as the season wears on. We need to have it working completely before the weather gets bad! The good news is our line seems to be pretty decent at run blocking just awful at pass blocking.

by TrevorR on Oct 23, 2009 9:58 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My point is...

Sure, in raw numbers, Grant may be #15, but alot of those yards are garbage yards, and in the end, we’re still 3-2 with little to no effective running attack.

by Danwood on Oct 23, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When is Green Bay going to realize Ryan Grant is not the answer at running back? Not only are his stats garbage if you look at them closely, but if you watch a game he clearly doesn’t have the skills to be an elite NFL back. He couldn’t find a hole in swiss cheese, and doesn’t understand the concept of running hard/downhill. Has anybody ever seen him make anybody miss? All his yards in 2007 can be credited to Green Bay’s offensive line. Obviously this year the offensive line has been a shitshow itself, but seriously Green Bay needs an upgrade from Grant, and Ahman Green is definitely not the answer. By the way, when’s B.J. Raji going to get some playing time?

by Pistol P on Oct 23, 2009 5:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

maybe at runningback like the fridge

by warvette on Oct 23, 2009 5:19 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Raji

He was starting to play more week 4 and 6 but then re-aggravated his ankle injury. From what I read last he looks like he is doing better though.

by packallday555 on Oct 23, 2009 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still need to run the ball.

Grant is average when it comes to running backs in the league. Bottom line is, you have to establish some kind of running game with the top teams. If you are down by ten in the third quarter and abandon the run against a good team then you have thrown the towel in. You become one dimensional and take away any play action threat which can always get you back in the game if you are running the ball half way effective. It is much better than passing for short gains and then taking a sack on third down. Being able to run the ball with the lead in the fourth is gravy.

by Embries on Oct 23, 2009 5:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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