Breaking Down Brett Favre's 2009 Season

by Brandon on Oct 28, 2009 7:00 AM CDT in Analysis Comment 24 comments

About those Green Bay Packers, from Football Outsiders:

When it comes to ratings that differ from conventional wisdom, a couple of teams really jumped out at me this week. The first is Green Bay, which has now climbed up to fourth overall...

But over the last couple weeks, without anyone looking -- probably because the opponents were Cleveland and Detroit -- Green Bay has moved into the top spot in our defensive ratings...

The Packers only have one defensive performance this year with a positive DVOA, which came against -- oh, just kill me now -- Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings.

For those unfamiliar with the DVOA ratings, a positive DVOA on defense is bad. Most of the defensive struggles in Minneapolis were due to the failed SS Derrick Martin - Starter! experiment, but Favre had a great game. Now he's coming off arguably his worst game of the season. For those wondering which game could be worse, he wasn't very good against the 49ers either (despite the last second TD pass to WR Greg Lewis). Favre's performance last week was ranked as the 17th best by Football Outsiders:

We were astounded to read after this game that the Vikings lost because of Favre's late game gaffes. Granted, it's pretty disastrous to fumble inside the ten-yard line, and our numbers account for it. But to blame Favre for Chester Taylor's drop of a screen pass that miraculously fell into Keyaron Fox's hands seems awful unfair, and it's even more bogus to blame him for failing to tackle on either of touchdown returns. Quarterbacks often get more credit and blame than they deserve, so this is nothing new, but statistics are doing a disservice to Favre here.

Before I was calling Favre a Betrayer, I was all for bringing him back to Green Bay. No matter what, he's having an outstanding season. It's even more incredible that he's doing it at age 40. After the jump is a more detailed breakdown of his 2009 season.

I don't care what his record is at Lambeau. He's never been a visiting player before. I don't even care what he's done in the past three seasons, on three different teams. The best thing to look at is what he's done this season. The following stats are from NFL.com, except the Pass Defense Rating is from Football Outsiders through week 7 of this season:

Opponent	QB Rating	Pass Defense Rating	Final
at Cleveland	95.3	26	W 34-20
at Detroit	115.3	31	W 27-13
San Francisco	78.3	13	W 27-24
Green Bay	135.3	2	W 30-23
at St. Louis	101.4	29	W 38-10
Baltimore	136.9	14	W 33-31
at Pittsburgh	76.6	18	L 17-27

At first glance, it looked like he's played great this season, at home or on the road. With the exceptions being the game in Minneapolis against the 49ers, and the game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Maybe those two games just offset. His two best games this season have been in the dome, against two good secondaries. Obviously he won't have any dome field advantage this Sunday.

Except for the Steelers, he's played against three of the worst defenses in the NFL. He's played well against them, but it doesn't really matter how good he was against the Browns in week 1. I haven't watched every Vikings game this season, but in week 1, he seemed to be playing it very safe with few passes downfield. That wasn't the case in the previous Packers game, and it didn't seem to be that way last week against the Steelers either. They seemed to have opened up the entire play book for him now. And the Packers and Steelers are much better teams than his other road competition this season.

Let's throw RB Adrian Peterson into the discussion. Last week against the Steelers' solid run defense, he had 3.8 yards/carry, his 2nd lowest average of the season. He was much worse against the Packers, when he averaged only 2.2 yards/carry in their first meeting. Against the Steelers, Peterson had 18 carries, and Favre had 50 pass attempts. I would expect they'll do something similar this week and throw the ball more than they run it.

In that case, the Steelers game might be a good predictor of next Sunday's game. Although it was a near 50/50 split back on October 5th, 32 pass attempts vs. 30 rushing attempts, that game plan was designed before the Packers held Peterson to 2.2 yards/carry. Also, the Vikings just can't decide to run the ball. They tried to run out the game last time, but Peterson couldn't get any yards in the 4th quarter, and the defense gave the Packers a chance at making a comeback.

So was the Vikings game a fluke for the Packers pass defense? Or will the Vikings continue to throw the ball against the Packers better than they did last week against the Steelers?

0 recs | Comment 24 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I think we can win this one

Is the only way to stop AP is to bring 8 men up front? It didn’t look like they stacked the box against Lewis and still shut him down almost entirely. Can Clay Matthews be a force in the Run D and help stop CT and AP? I think so.

I also believe they’ll need to show some looks they haven’t run out there yet to try and confuse and sack the old man. History says it isn’t easy to get to Brent, but if you do, he turns in the INT machine we’ve all come to know and love.. then hate, then love.. then hate before finally accepting him.. only to hate him all over again.

One thing I’ve noticed this year is the Vikings are not the run stoppers they have proven themselves to be in years past. They are a pedestrian 10th against the run, allowing 95 yards rush per game! The Vikings D as a whole isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either, ranking 17th overall. The Packers D is rated, get this, 3rd overall in the league by NFL.com. Who else did this sneak up on? My hand is raised.

In fact, if you take Jared Allen’s 4.5 sackathon away, the man only has 3 sacks for the other 6 games. That’s pathetic given the nature of his job as a pass-rusher extraordinaire. Jared Allen and Antwan Odom are the two top sackers this year, but both were gift wrapped 9.5 sacks between the two by a punchless Daryn C. If you take those away (I wish you would!) the top sacker is a well deserved Dwight Freeney, with 7 EARNED sacks.

The Packers also have the advantage in turnovers. Ranked 4th overall in turnovers with 7 Forced Fumbles and 11 INT, Woodson claims 4 of those, good for the 5th best DB in the league.

Combine this with the Packers having the second best QB in the league, only behind Peyton Manning, and I believe we have a formula for success, and honor restored.

by PackaCracka on Oct 28, 2009 10:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

good points

1st vikings game I knew we would lose, but this one I feel better about. Will of course be a slug fest, but I think we have a real shot. I agree that Vikings are not as dominant on D and am frustrated by SOME viking fans saying are D is crap because we played DET and CLE. Well, they also played DET and CLE.

Good point about taking away Jared’s sacks from the Packer game, didn’t really realize that.

Vikings are very good, and even if we stop AD but Favre has 8 seconds to throw the ball, we will lose. He also gets rid of the ball super fast so sacking him is tough. Will be a tough game, still think we win though.

I don’t agree that AR is 2nd best, Peyton, Brees and Brady all anticipate and make decisions faster than AR. Favre is also very fast. AR has the potential to be great, but not there yet.

btw, classic…

all come to know and love.. then hate, then love.. then hate before finally accepting him.. only to hate him all over again.

by Acme on Oct 28, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

new players

plus, there are 3 new players on defense that Packers did not have against the vikings during the 1st game.

Matthews was limited, BJ Raji was mostly hurt and ineffective, and Bigby was out.

Those are great players that will have an impact on Sunday in the Packers favor.

by Acme on Oct 28, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I only say AR

is second best in the league because thats where NFL.com put him in the QB rating scheme, just behind Peyton.

Sortable stats by position - Quarterback

by PackaCracka on Oct 28, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta disagree with you....

“In fact, if you take Jared Allen’s 4.5 sackathon away, the man only has 3 sacks for the other 6 games. That’s pathetic given the nature of his job as a pass-rusher extraordinaire.”

Granted, numbers don’t lie… JA “only” has 7.5 sacks. But take it from someone who’s seen every Vikings game this year. JA’s value on this defense goes WAY beyond how many times he sacks the qb. I don’t know the official numbers, but JA’s forced fumbles, hurried the qb, and has at least two forced safeties. I would say that pretty extraordinary.

by Medcity on Oct 28, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But like someone said, he usually only does it against mediocre tackles or rookies

When facing a talented tackle, he usually disappears like he did against Joe Thomas. Also, he is an atrocious run defender as he sells out on the pass every play when he rushes up field. Good player but vastly overrated.

by Charlie Kelly on Oct 28, 2009 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

50/50 game

“I haven’t watched every Vikings game this season, but in week 1, he seemed to be playing it very safe with few passes downfield.”

That was as close to preseason as it gets in the regular season. Favre didn’t know his new receivers very well at that point.

This year’s Vikings seem to be a team capable of having a dominant game in one facet (passing, running or defense) but incapable of putting all together simultaneously. I don’t know how confident I would feel about Lang vs. Allen, and I expect to see RB/TE helping chip similar to week 6 vs. Baltimore. That should slow down the Packers offense a bit. If Rodgers can stay upright long enough for Driver and/or Jennings to get down the field a ways, I see the lack of experience and speed in Minnesota’s back 7 suffering. The linebackers and Madieau Williams are smart and Sapp & Johnson are fast, but the combination doesn’t exist in one player outside of Antoine Winfield, Jared Allen and Kevin Williams.

I think Jennings and Favre are key to this game. If Jennings has a good day and/or Favre has a bad one, a Packers victory looks probable. If not, I give the nod to the Vikings. Granted, I am a Vikings fan and not immune to bias, but those are my thoughts.

by peterplaysbass on Oct 28, 2009 11:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good points

I think the match-up to watch will be Lang vs Allen. TJ Lang isn’t fundamentally sound like Clifton, and isn’t that large or quick, but he is very aggressive in both run blocking and pass protection and has a fantastic punch. I think he’s going to be up to the challenge but I also think they’ll give him plenty of help.

by PackaCracka on Oct 28, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lang seems sound so far

so yes, it should be a good matchup. I expect Lang to mostly hold his own for the first quarter or so, but a couple of close calls will be enough for Green Bay to put some help on that side of the line.

I just hope Minnesota is smart enough to drop Allen into coverage at that point. I love the guy, but over pursuit makes him vulnerable to screens and draws, but Allen’s coverage combined with a RB or TE as the line’s 6th man should help close doors on offense.

I’m looking forward to an interesting, close game.

by peterplaysbass on Oct 28, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As you are a Vikings fan

and I am not, I don’t know squat about Allen’s coverage skills. Have you seen him drop back into coverage this year? How comfortable does he look?

by PackaCracka on Oct 28, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

He drops back from time to time. Minnesota has been experimenting with sending two rushers while letting a third eyeball the QB (Kevin Williams watched Roethlisberger a lot last week while whichever two of Allen, Edwards and Robison were on the field were rushing). Sometimes it’s Allen. He has good speed for a DE so he does a decent job. I don’t think he looks extremely comfortable, but it helps him stop a run play to his side if he drops a step or two before recognizing the play. Otherwise the RB has to get close to Allen in order for him to have a chance. Usually, if Allen is rushing the QB and the RB gets the ball, Allen misses badly. That’s what I’ve noticed, anyhow.

by peterplaysbass on Oct 28, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree on the 50/50

I think it’s a toss up on who wins this game but I give the slight edge to the Packers because it’s in Lambeau and they have a healthier Matthews, Raji, and Bigby back that they didn’t have in the first matchup. Bigby being out was the biggest factor in the first game no question about it and now the Vikings have the same problem without Winfield so we will see. Finley is a big negative for the Packers if he is out however, because he almost took over the game in the dome.

I really think the Packers will go to the short quick passing game and if the Vikings start to play that, the Packers will start going deep and getting explosive plays on the Vikings predestrian secondary. Jennings could be able to break out, we can only hope. If the Packers get the quick slant game going early, I see the Vikings defense being in trouble as the game wears on. I don’t know what the Packers intend to do on defense so that’s why I think the games still a toss up. I believe the Packers will score a good amount on offense so it will come down to the Pack’s defense containing AP and Favre. Will they do it? Who knows.

by GGGamer on Oct 28, 2009 1:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice analysis

“in Lambeau and they have a healthier Matthews, Raji, and Bigby back” -that’s huge for Green Bay.

I think that Minnesota’s front seven and even CBs were built around stopping the run game, and with the pass rush that’s emerged in the last year and a half, people are still adapting to the differences in playing the quick pass game.

If the Packers have success with the slant early on, I think you’re right in saying that the big plays will open up later in the game. Does Jennings have the cojones to cross the field like a TE?

by peterplaysbass on Oct 28, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jennings Does

Have the cojones but he’s just not getting it done up until this point for some reason. Jennings and Driver are both great at going over the middle but Jennings hasn’t done much of that at all this season in part because he’s going deep a lot like the way you guys use Berrian, and the patchwork offensive line hasn’t given Rodgers time to get it downfield to him. I know as a fan you remember Jennings catching slant after slant from Favre against the Vikings a couple seasons ago and when Favre broke the TD record with a pass to Jennings. The Packers started doing that a little bit again against the Lions and Browns so I would guess they will try it early against you guys.

by GGGamer on Oct 28, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

421, right?

Yeah, I remember that. I think I was asking about Jennings because he doesn’t seem to be doing the same this year, although I didn’t watch the last two games you referenced.

Speaking of Berrian, his hammy doesn’t help Minnesota’s case this week. I’m sure your secondary can handle Rice and Harvin pretty well, but having a third deep threat would have makd things easier.

by peterplaysbass on Oct 28, 2009 3:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Berrian

I totally forgot about him huring his other hammy. Yeah having Berrian and Winfield possibly out isn’t the best of circumstances for the Vikings but I guess having Finley and Clifton not healthy is a similar disadvantage for the Packers.

by GGGamer on Oct 28, 2009 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like this guy

Kind of a shame the Rockies aren't around to win it for Balloon Boy
-billyok

by blackoutsox on Oct 28, 2009 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unbelievable

Its unbelievable that people aren’t realizing that Bigby missed the 1st viqueens game! He is a game changer in the box, and in coverage he allows Capers to call a complete game. In minn we played Martin at safety and he was not only new to the D, but also not nearly as good as Bigby. THe Packers the viqueens faced in game 1 will be far different than the Packers the viqueens will see in GB.

Missing not only Bigby, but also Raji, the Packers played the queen straight to a draw, save one dropped TD!!! Watch for the pass D to be MUCH improved this game w/ Bigby at his usual safety postion, instead on Martin.

This game w/ Bigby, Matthews on EVERY down, and Raji able to effectively spell Pickett and Jolly. Raji is a very good pass rusher from DT, so he may be able to get into #4’s face and force an errant throw or three. Bigby able to play in coverage AND take down AD when in the box makes the Packers D soo much better. Matthews is great vs the run and is also going to put some heat on #$!!!

You simply cannot understate how conservative Capers had to play w/ Martin who didn’t know the D yet. THis game will be MUCH different than game 1. Pack by 7+!!!

by Strohman on Oct 28, 2009 8:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Its true

What was it, a 3 percent blitz package? You gotta get to the old man.

"Unforgettable images: Arthur Blank pushing Vick's wheelchair; Brad Childress as chauffeur to Favre.''
-- latimesfarmer, Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times, after the Vikings coach picked up Favre and wife Deanna at the St. Paul Airport for the 30-minute ride to the Minnesota training facility.

by PackaCracka on Oct 29, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For this game

you’re right, but they couldn’t blitz during the game in the dome because they knew Derrick Martin was gonna give up a big play. He gave up two big plays because he was out of position in what should have been a basic cover 2 play call. If they blitzed more than they did, Favre would’ve had another TD or two.

They kept the first game close when they really shouldn’t have. Favre had all day to throw and Rodgers had 2 seconds. This current Packers team should be able to get some consistent pressure on Favre without having to blitz a lot, which will be the main factor. On the flipside the Packers can’t protect any worse than they did the first time around.

by GGGamer on Oct 29, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like our chances better with Lang

Even a healthy Clifton is starting to show his age and diminishing skill set. Even though Lang is a rookie, I think he has the aggressive demeanor one needs to have to be a successful lineman.

by Charlie Kelly on Oct 29, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree

I like Lang better than Clifton at this point as well but could you really see McCarthy benching a healthy Clifton? If I could make the decision I would have Lang take Colledge’s spot at LG when a healthy Clifton is fully ready to go. Lang’s a better run blocker than Clifton and Colledge so at least you would have the solid pass protection in Clifton and a good run blocker in Lang out there together instead of two bad run blockers in Clifton and Colledge.

by GGGamer on Oct 29, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya

People don’t realize how big of a difference Bigby makes in our defense. With Martin in there we were really just running the basics. I think people will be surprised by how much better our pass defense is this game.

by packallday555 on Oct 29, 2009 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

completely agree

I dont think anyone of us (even us regulars) realized how important Bigby is to our D until we didnt have him. It was almost like the OL, you get one injury and it forces others to play out of position. Collins could not roam like he is used too.

by bizzle4 on Oct 30, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs