Attack The Vikings Through The Air
In his 2nd career start for the Green Bay Packers, back in 2007, RB Ryan Grant carried the ball 25 times against the Minnesota Vikings, as the Packers won 34-0 in Green Bay. Since then, he's started 3 more games against the Vikings and carried the ball 12 times, 16 times, and 11 times. He's never had a yards/carry average below 4.6 against them, but it's clear that the Packers aren't leaning on Grant when they play the Vikings. This is probably a good idea since Football Outsiders currently has the Vikings ranked as the 5th best run defense.
Their pass defense, however, is currently ranked as the No. 17 overall by FO. At NFL.com, their pass defense has allowed a 90.6 QB rating. And they probably will be without their best defensive back, CB Antoine Winfield. He is one of Mike McCarthy's favorite players (just go ahead and say it):
I think Winfield is an excellent player. I've said that before in here. In my opinion, from a defensive standpoint, he's one of, I don't want to say my favorite players, I think he's one of the better defensive players in the NFC. I just love the way he plays. He's physical, he's tough against the run. He's competitive, he's well-experienced. He has a unique set of skills. He's definitely their best player in the secondary.
More after the jump.
Here's a breakdown of the Vikings pass defense so far this season. QB rating against, sacks and QB hits from ESPN.com, and opponents pass offense ranking from Football Outsiders:
| Opponent | QB Rating Against | Pass Offense | Sacks | QB Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Cleveland | 74.1 | 31 | 5 | 7 |
| at Detroit | 56.5 | 30 | 2 | 2 |
| San Francisco | 94.6 | 20 | 1 | 5 |
| Green Bay | 110.6 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| at St. Louis | 89.6 | 25 | 2 | 4 |
| Baltimore | 109.2 | 11 | 3 | 8 |
| at Pittsburgh | 87.8 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
The first thing that jumped out was that their pass defense seems to be playing much better on the road. The best performance at home was holding the recently benched QB Shaun Hill to "only" a 94.6 QB rating. It's not a great sample size comparison because only the Steelers have a good pass offense among their 4 road opponents.
The second thing was that a consistent pass rush has no relationship on whether they can stop the pass. They did a great job sacking and hitting QB Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore's QB Joe Flacco, but those were their two worst games of the season per opponents' QB rating. Let's say, hypothetically, we do go ahead and pull out the 4.5 sacks DE Jared Allen had against the Packers last time, then it turns out that the Vikings would still have 20.5 sacks on the season, which would leave them ranked No. 4 overall. Once you actually add back in those 4.5 sacks, then the Vikings are the leading the league with 25 sacks as a team. The defensive front seven is getting to the QB, but it hasn't helped their pass defense climb any higher than No. 17 overall, so far.
A final point is their inconsistency. The backup CBs replacing Winfield were solid last week in Pittsburgh, but they were terrible when they had to play in the 4th quarter against the Ravens.
Their pass defense has struggled at times, whether they are recording 8 sacks against QB Aaron Rodgers or not, so this has to be the area the Packers will focus on. This is where they have to attack on Sunday.
0 recs |
26 comments
|
Comments
Different Opinion
I don’t know why I always look at attacking the Vikings differently then do most people, on the ground. The Williams wall is solid but Pat is aging and can be moved around a little bit but real weakness on the line is running at Allen. If Clifton cannot go I think getting Lang used to pushing Allen around on runs right at him would give him confindence while wearing down Allen to help with pass protection latter on in the game.
Winfield is a solid runstopping corner and his presence will be missed more than is realized. Success in the running game will force the linebackers to spend more time looking at play action and not chasing Lee up the seam or dropping in the intermediate zones where Driver and Jennings like to work. By pounding the ball the deep passing game should open up more against the mediocre safeties and back up corners of the Vikings. I think this is a game that Grant should have another 25+ carries with moderate success if they just stick to it.
by Dogg Pound on Oct 29, 2009 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like your thinking
The Packers need to resist the temptation to become one-dimensional. The coaches need to help the O-line out a little by not throwing on every down, allowing Allen to rush every play.
The Pack can run, if schemed properly.
by NYCPac on Oct 29, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love your thinking
This is always what I hope MM will do, but he never seems to do it. For his career Grant has well over 4.0 ypc against the Vikes, and really always does have success running against them. The problem always is, like you stated, he only gets 14, 15 carries a game against them.
We still had a lot of success passing against the Vikes last game (we probably sustained drives against them better then any other game), and I think we could be much more successful if they actually didn’t know what was coming every play.
by packallday555 on Oct 29, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Steelers revealed a large weakness
Running the 2 minute, no huddle offense against the Vikings at the end of the first half gave them yardage in large chunks. Not advocating doing that every drive, but once you get to, say, midfield, going no huddle might be a nice change of pace.
by Danwood on Oct 29, 2009 10:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Especially with a fatty
like Pat Williams is on the field.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
by jobe on Oct 29, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Idea, but....
The vikings probably realized this and worked extra hard on pass coverage this week…i expect a lot of runs to open the game. Eventually it wont work and they will air it out(like every game except the browns)
V/R
Ted Thompson, GM
Green Bay Packers
1265 Lombardi Ave.
Green Bay, Wisconsin 54304
Tel: 920-569-7500
by Ted Thompson on Oct 29, 2009 10:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and lions game
V/R
Ted Thompson, GM
Green Bay Packers
1265 Lombardi Ave.
Green Bay, Wisconsin 54304
Tel: 920-569-7500
by Ted Thompson on Oct 29, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
pack vs viks
pass pass pass wait till late 3rd ,4th quarter when the d line is wore out then hit them with ryan grant.of coarse mix it up a lil bit but mostly pass.i know mm wants to prove the pack is a running team but dont you think a win is better than trying to prove your a running team?every single time he forces the run in the beginning of the game the pack fall behind ,then rogers gets sacked over and over again .dont know how much more our franchise qb can take!!!
by BIRDMAN62 on Oct 29, 2009 12:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I see what your saying
but if the Vikings know they’re just gonna pass pass pass, Jarred Allen and Kevin Williams are just gonna pin their ears back and come after Rodgers. I do think this is the perfect game to set up the run with the pass however, since Winfield looks to be out. I think they should do the opposite of the Cleveland game where they ran ran ran on the first series and then passed the whole second series.
The Vikings have already said they’re gonna try to take away the deep explosive plays in the passing game so I think the Packers should dink and dunk for the first couple of series and really tire out the Vikings defense and hurry up the pace. If their successful moving the ball on the purple defense they then should try to run the ball down their throat because the defense will be cautious of getting beat by the pass. This can and hopefully will be that perfect game where the short quick passing game opens up the rushing attack for some big explosive plays. If the Vikings have to worry about the run as much as the pass they’re gonna be in serious trouble.
by GGGamer on Oct 29, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
The short passes and runs tire out a defense faster than the long ball. As a defender when you have to face quick plays your mind gets worn and it physically drains you faster than just running and covering a deep route since you have to do more reads and have a quicker reaction on the short things.
I like the thought of runs, screens, and quick passes to start out the game. I would like for the O to be just plain out quick. Not a no hubddle but quicker than a regular huddle. Almost like they did on the first series the first game where they moved the ball down the field with ease before the sack and fumble
by bizzle4 on Oct 29, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
pack vs vikes
I would say spred em out, maybe line up Grant as a 4th wide out and run 250lb Quinn Johnson right at Allen. Put him on his back a few plays to hurt his ego, then start airing it out. Or have 2 full backs to try to soften things up a bit, that would be 500lbs and see if it opens a nice play action. My point is Min def is big, heavy and have alot of power but as one mentioned they are aging so throw little trick play end arounds in there too
by turd on Oct 29, 2009 1:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What I would do
I liked the Packers ran some screens in the last matchup. When you have a team that will be pinning their ears back you have to use that to your advantage. In addition to the screens, I’d look for a few draws, and maybe even a couple of shovel passes to Grant running from right to left into the gap between Allen and Williams.
The conventional wisdom would probably be to go after the Vikings new nickel back with Jones, but I think they will stick with Jennings, and Driver, and Lee as the primary targets and go after Griffin and Sapp.
To be honest, I don’t know if I feel more comfortable with Clifton and Tauscher or Barbre and Lang, but at least they have a backup if something goes horribly wrong in the pass protection.
by grant76 on Oct 29, 2009 2:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
O-Line
The offensive line will be best suited using the healthiest bodies to counter the Viking ends. Clifton is a better player than Lang but I would rather have Lang in there right now since he is confident and healthy. Regarding Barbre and Taucher I would rather see Barbre in there since he is already up to game speed. Taucher will take some time to get back to game speed on the field and going up against Minnesota is not going to be the most favorable of matchups. Let him get his feet wet next week at Tampa if he is going to become the starter over Barbre.
by Dogg Pound on Oct 29, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what gives!
The Packers offense is based on taking what the Defense gives them! If the queens play 7 in the box and drop into coverage, the Packers MUST prove they can run against that. Its counterproductive to force passing vs coverage or run vs 8 in the box! Packers will give Rodgers ALOT of run/pass options dependent on what the viqueens do… Its on Rodgers to read the D correctly and get the Pack into the best run/pass vs that D.
If Rodgers is able to do that the Pack will win easily. The Pack has been able to run Grant vs the queens w/ some success. If they get 7 in the box, as I suspect they will early, they have to have success or they will end up passing into coverage! Its very difficult to win that way…
THey can however do screens and slants vs almost any D/coverage. I expect we’ll see a more patient Rodgers hitting on alot of slants which the queens will have difficulty covering well. Mix the slants, screens and run vs 7 in the box. Go deep if/when they go 8 in the box!!!
by Strohman on Oct 29, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like it
Your post makes a lot of sense but at the same time I think the Packers offense can dictate this game if Winfield is out. You’re correct, the Packers should take what the defense gives them, but they’re gonna try to cover for their weak secondary so they will never put 8 in the box if he’s out. IMO They’re gonna try to make the Packers run and have the safeties deep to take away the deep pass so the middle of the field will be open. So like you said, mixing the screens and slants, and then running when they’re in nickel or dime could spell problems for them. I’m excited.
by GGGamer on Oct 29, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ive got a lot riding on this game
and if we keep the 2 TE set, i know we can run and pass at will. this isnt rodgers’ game to win, in my eyes, its his game to lose.
Blasting one into a Christmas ham like her is so passe. - RWShow
by BoeJouma on Oct 29, 2009 4:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The dangers of relying on QB ratings
My geek fantasy-baseball friends rely on all kinds of statistics in constructing their fantasy baseball teams, and that is entirely appropriate for a FANTASY LEAGUE because that is NOT real baseball. A real baseball player, for example, hits a ground ball to the right side of the infield with a runner on second and nobody out because in real baseball, this advances the runner, which is a positive. In fantasy baseball, however, you want the player to try to get the RBI because it’s a different game with different rules.
QB ratings are similar. They do not reflect the “real” game of football. A QB who engineers his team into a significant lead frequently will stop throwing, because the game strategy at that point generally is to milk the clock while the lead holds up. Conversely, the QB whose team is losing must take more risk and throw the ball more, and he generally gets the advantage of throwing against a soft zone that is designed to give up yardage, but slowly, again to milk the clock. The additional yardage and (presumably) completions enhances a QB rating under the formula, while the QB who simply hands off gets nothing to add.
Throw in sacks: They do not count as a negative toward the QB rating. QBs on teams other than the Packers and Vikings have been accused in the past of preferring to take sacks rather than throw incompletions because of this. Certainly, 8 more incomplete passes would have hurt Rodgers’ passer rating in the Vikings game, but that would have been preferable to the sacks (including one for a safety).
My point (admittedly rather long winded) is that you can’t look at QB ratings as an “ah HA!” statistic. Frequently they mean very little. After all, Johnny Unitas and Fran Tarkenton had more yards and touchdowns, but would you rather have had one of them, or Bart Starr?
by ktenreb on Oct 29, 2009 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
While I agree you can’t put everything into such a stat, it doesn’t mean nothing. Its still a good barometer of the quality of the QB. You still don’t see bad QBs putting up really high numbers too often. Is it a perfect system? No, but does it mean “very little” I would disagree there too!
by TrevorR on Oct 29, 2009 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right On
The QB rating and statistics don’t mean everything but if you put out your list of QB’s who you think are playing the best, not based on fantasy numbers, and those QB’s you would want to lead your team, most of them will be at the top of QB and passer ratings.
The leaders right now are 1. Manning 2. Rodgers 3. Brees 4. Schaub 5. Big Ben 6. Favre 7. Orton 8. Brady 9. Rivers 10. Romo.
Those ten QB’s are playing about the best football in the league right now in pretty good order. The only two I would add to replace someone in the top 10 are Flacco and Palmer.
by GGGamer on Oct 29, 2009 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All of you appear to have a basic misunderstanding of what “QB ratings” are and always have been.
They were never indended to indicate who is the best quarterback.
The Passer Rating system was originally designed as a means to determine a passing champion, just as total rushing yards determine a rushing champ and total catches are the basis for naming a receiving champ; hence, there are not called ‘QB ratings’, but ‘Passer Ratings’.
They always have been called passer ratings.
As we all know, passing is only one of the many pieces of the quarterback puzzle.
By the way, FWIW, the boys over at Cold Hard Football Facts.com have made a very strong case for the correlation between a high passer rating and winning in various pieces, including here.
The glass is more than half-full.
by NorthStarr on Oct 31, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, all of you except TrevorR
The glass is more than half-full.
by NorthStarr on Oct 31, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Romo and maybe Brady should not be on that list
Brady not not now, only two good games, and Romo only had one fluky good year
Kind of a shame the Rockies aren't around to win it for Balloon Boy
-billyok
by blackoutsox on Oct 29, 2009 9:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
reply fail
Kind of a shame the Rockies aren't around to win it for Balloon Boy
-billyok
by blackoutsox on Oct 29, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good breakdown.
I say use Grant to keep them honest and slow the pass rush.
But have to give Aaron his shots in the air to win the game.
by WarWolf on Oct 29, 2009 10:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Attack The Vikings Through The Air
No shit, Sherlock!
LOL
by puddnhead on Oct 29, 2009 10:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

by 


















