Preview: Vikings at Green Bay Packers

by Brandon on Oct 30, 2009 7:00 AM CDT in Green Bay Packers Analysis

Though there are 10 regular season games remaining for the Packers, this should be the biggest remaining game on their schedule. Still, it's not a must-win game. The NFC North becomes very tight at the top if the Packers win, but even if the Vikings build a comfortable 3 game lead in the division, they still have to contend with the 2nd half of the season. They'll have to keep winning because the Packers will not go away.

Here's how the teams matchup, official NFL rankings from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	13	10	12	4

Team	Run Defense	Pass Defense	Run Offense	Pass Offense
Vikings	10	20	12	13

As far as the Packers offensive strategy goes, I discussed it yesterday. I don't expect them to use RB Ryan Grant a whole lot, but they might have success running the ball if they tried. Still, the alternative is that QB Aaron Rodgers has another great game against them. In their last meeting, the Vikings had 9 QB hits and 8 sacks, but Rodgers still managed 384 yards and 2 TDs. The Vikings pass defense hasn't gotten any better since then, and they'll probably be without injured Pro Bowl CB Antoine Winfield.

I'm really looking forward to watching the Packers run defense take another shot at RB Adrian Peterson. They held him to 55 yards (2.2 yards/carry) in their last game. Back to what I said earlier about QB Brett Favre, I expect he'll have another game like he had last week in Pittsburgh. He'll have some success against them, but he won't have a repeat of his big game in Minneapolis. The return of SS Atari Bigby should make a big difference this time around.

Packers 27, Vikings 20.

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Comments

The FO rankings

Its kind of surprising to see the Packers so high in the rankings. It feels like the Vikings should be ranked in the top 5 for running offense and the Packers should be in bottom 5, but FO has them at 12 and 13 respectively.

Another surpise is that Football Outsiders says the Packers are the highest ranked defesnse in the league. I doubt any of use believe that, but the biggest problem last year was the defense, and just moving in to the top 10 would be fine by me.

The biggest problem this year has been the offensive line which is also in fixable. I think that the penalties and weak opponents are masking the improvements that have been occurring each week.

by grant76 on Oct 30, 2009 9:24 AM CDT reply actions

No surprise the Vikings running game

Peterson has had 2 huge games and then the rest have been average and for him probably below average. If you take away the 143 yards against the Ravens and 180 against the Browns AP has only rushed 91 times for 364y yards in 5 games which averages to only 73 yards in those 5 games and 4 yards per carry. Not exactly the AP of last year.

by bizzle4 on Oct 30, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions

AP is kind a Home Run guy

Maybe breaking a 65 yd run is the difference between a mediocre 80 yard game and a very good 145 yard game. I think FO likes when a team consistent runs for 5 yards rather than some short gains or losses, followed by one big play.

Its probably more a case of teams putting 8 in the box to stop him. It would be interesting if AP, had hit a wall or has fallen off a bit, but I doubt it.

by grant76 on Oct 30, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions

I would agree that most teams are gameplanning for him

And now that Favre is making throws, I expect to see AP get a few more 100 yard games down the stretch.

by Danwood on Oct 30, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

I do agree with both of you, with 8 in box

I was merely figuring out some numbers. Maybe he is feeling the 350+ touches effect theory. I personally kind of laugh at the idea, but have heard worse theories.

by bizzle4 on Oct 30, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions