Analysis: Packers (4-4) After 8 Games
by Brandon on Nov 11, 2009 7:00 AM CST
in Analysis
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Obviously the 1st half of the season ended badly with a loss to what was previously the last team without a win. Ex-Packer DT Gilbert Brown took some shots at Mike McCarthy this week, and former S LeRoy Butler says it's time for Mike to "turn the play calling over to Joe Philbin." Really? Philbin might be a heck of a guy, but he's primarily been an offensive line coach since 1986 and became a 1st time offensive coordinator in 2007. After watching the offensive line struggle this season, it's not exactly clear whether Philbin is doing a very good job himself.
Here's how they measure up statistically after the first 8 games compared to the rest of the league, rankings from NFL.com:
| Team | Run Offense | Pass Offense | Run Defense | Pass Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
They're top 10 in every major statistical category. I would expect a winning record with those stats. For as bad as the offensive line has been this season, it sure hasn't stopped the offense from being productive. I'm not defending them, just pointing out that we can't just say the 4-4 record is all the offensive line's fault. There's something else going on here. More after the jump.
Let's compare them to three other teams, the unbeaten Colts and Saints, and the Cowboys. I think everyone would consider those three teams better than the Packers. Again rankings from NFL.com:
| Team | Run Offense | Pass Offense | Run Defense | Pass Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 |
| Colts | 29 | 1 | 14 | 9 |
| Cowboys | 8 | 6 | 12 | 20 |
According to Football Outsiders: all 3 teams have an offense in the top 5 (the Packers are at No. 8); the defenses of the Colts (No. 6 overall) and Saints (No. 4) are playing great (the Packers are No. 5), while the Cowboys are struggling with the No. 20 defense. The No. 29 run offense from the Colts sticks out like a sore thumb, but obviously their No. 1 pass offense is more than compensating for it. The official rankings don't take into consideration that the Saints lead the NFL in INTs, but their run defense really isn't very good anyway you look at it. And the official stats don't notice that the Colts have only allowed 4 TD passes this season.
My point is that the Packers seem to measure up well against 3 teams that have combined for 2 losses in their first 24 games.
Though one area I haven't addressed is special teams. The Packers are dead last by a comfortable margin, according to Football Outsiders. The 3 worst special teams games of the season have been against the Bengals, Vikings (at Lambeau), and Buccaneers; all losses. An easy answer might be it's the special teams fault, but good special teams play doesn't necessarily equal a winning football team. Currently the Browns have the best special teams unit in the NFL, while some winning teams like the Saints (No. 26), Broncos (No. 27), and Steelers (No. 30) aren't getting much from their special teams either.
But something else jumped out in those 4 losses this season: passing TDs allowed. The Packers have allowed 16 passing TDs this season, tied for 4th worst in the NFL. 12 of those have been given up in the 4 losses, and it has worked out exactly to 3 TDs in each game. The common theme in those 12 TD passes was the absence of the pass rush.
Another problem is that 10 of those 12 TD passes were for 15 yards or less. In theory it might be easier to cover in the red zone, where there is less field to cover, but that hasn't been the case this season.
Against the Bengals: TD passes of 5, 5, and 13 yards. If you watch the highlight of each TD pass on NFL.com, you'll see QB Carson Palmer dropping back with no pressure in his face as he steps up in the pocket and throws. On the final 2 TD passes, you'll also notice S Aaron Rouse standing around after the play, looking confused. Which is probably one reason why he was released a couple days later.
Against the Vikings (in Minneapolis): The first TD pass from the 1 yard line was asking for trouble (Favre ran one way then turned to throw across the field for the TD) but they got away with it. The 2nd one was a strike to WR Sidney Rice for 14 yards, and similar to the TD passes by Palmer, Favre dropped back in the pocket and then stepped up to throw with little pressure on him. The final TD was a 31 yard pass to Berrian on which S Derrick Martin played the wrong coverage, and he hasn't been seen playing defense since.
Against the Vikings (at Lambeau): The 12 yard TD pass to TE Visanthe Shiancoe had no pass rush again. The 51 yard TD pass was a fluke play where 3 Packers collided as they jumped for the ball, and Favre got away with throwing into triple coverage. The final 2 yard TD pass was a quick pass out into the right flat which the OLB couldn't get to.
Against the Buccaneers: A 6 yard TD pass that was a quick pass out into the right flat which the OLB couldn't get to. That play is something teams will try and exploit again since it worked in consecutive weeks. A 7 yard TD pass during which the Packers finally got some pass rush! DE Johnny Jolly broke free and collapsed the pocket, but LB Clay Matthews tried to go inside, so there was nobody outside to the left when QB Josh Freeman scrambled to throw a high arching pass to TE Kellen Winslow that only he could catch. On the final 7 yard TD pass, CB Jarrett Bush was fooled on a double move by a rookie WR into the right corner of the end zone. He could have gotten it if he hadn't been fooled, but Bush has been underwhelming us with his coverage skills for the past 3 seasons.
Some of those TD passes couldn't have been avoided. But on most of them, the QB had too much time to throw. The special teams and the offensive line have been bad this season, and the team would be a lot better if those units could get themselves turned around. But where they're losing games is on TD passes allowed in the red zone. What they really need is a pass rush, especially up the middle (paging Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji), to turn the opponent's red zone opportunities into FGs or stops.
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In regards to the defense, dallas had its worst defensive performance mainly in the first two games of the season (zero sacks in the 1st two games).
Dallas has improved their defense since then; I think this will be good game, GB cannot afford to lose another game, they are at home and dallas could be perceived as a team ripe for a let down game.
On a different note, I had heard that Sunday may have rain in the forecast for the game; do any of the local fans have any feedback on this?
Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!
by cowboy78 on Nov 11, 2009 8:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Too early to say for sure
At least about the rain.
by Brandon on Nov 11, 2009 10:27 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
lies, damn lies, and statistics
Our offensive and defensive rankings are largely skewed by the beatdowns we’ve put on the Rams, Browns, and Lions, and a bit by the defensive thrashing/Cutler-implosion against the Bears. The 3 losses against quality opponents – and the 1 loss against a bad-but-not-horrible Bucs squad – clearly exposed us as a middle of the pack team. That should be plainly obvious.
Our team has 4 losses because our offensive line stinks, our special teams super-stink, and our head coach isn’t getting the job done in cleaning up the stupid mistakes and making adequate adjustments. End. Of. Story.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Rodgers is in serious danger of suffering long term damage to his game. He clearly regressed against Tampa, and if we can’t get protection turned around this week, Dallas could very well wreck his psyche for the remainder of the season, if not beyond.
by swilldog on Nov 11, 2009 1:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Gotta Blame Rodgers
Sure the line sucks, sure the coach has to adjust, but he’s gotta get rid of the ball. When you’ve got Troy Aikman saying he’s to blame for the high sack total and my wife screaming “get rid of the ball!” while he’s looking and looking and looking and pumping and taking safeties and unnecessary sacks, you gotta point the finger at him too.
by Wade V on Nov 13, 2009 3:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And this is true, but from what the coaches have said, and some of the players as well, Rodgers is suffering in part because his wr’s can’t get open. And to that you’ll probably say well he can still throw the ball away, which is something I totally agree with.
If we had an average o-line him holding onto the ball really wouldn’t be a huge problem. In 08’ he didn’t have nearly as much trouble with holding onto the ball as he is having this year and that is telling. Our o-line is just so bad, and our Qb, Rb, and Wr’s are all suffering as a result. And then throw in McCarthy being a horrid play-caller and the result isn’t going to be pretty.
TT NEEDS to make some big changes with our o-line this offseason and if he doesn’t then he has to go. And I think McCarthy just needs to go, along most of our current coaching staff.
by packallday555 on Nov 13, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
100%
Agree. I’m off the McCarthy bandwagon. AND the TT bandwagon.
I know comparing teams is all relative, but Dom Capers D was shredded by the Bengals in week 2. Week 1, Mike Nolan’s inferior personnel in Denver gave up 7 to the same team. I’d much rather have Nolan working with our players than Capers.
by Wade V on Nov 14, 2009 2:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They should just hore
BILL COWHER!
by Drew C on Nov 11, 2009 4:10 PM CST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Bill Cowher would be an exellent choice concidering he"s familier with the 3-4.
and I like his scowl on the side lines.
by cheddarhead on Nov 11, 2009 5:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
He's not coming to GB...
They would REALLY have to overpay to convince him to uproot his family halfway across the country. I just don’t see it happening.
by TrevorR on Nov 11, 2009 11:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Biggest Underachiever
on this team is the head coach. Good for Gilbert Brown.
by Wade V on Nov 12, 2009 8:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
we can only hope...
that he’s an underachiever cause otherwise he’s a fake!
by TrevorR on Nov 12, 2009 2:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Accountability
I don’t really have a problem w/ THompson as a GM, in fact I mostly like what he has done. I think the problem stems from McCarthy. He simply doesn’t seem to have the ability to make players accountable for their performances. He lacks the leadership necessary from a HC! A GM, in my opinion, doesn’t need to be the same kinda leader a HC MUST BE! A GM is usually a behind the scenes job. A HC has to a Front and Center person on the team, both on the field and in the media. I have tried to give McCarthy the benefit of the doubt in the past, but the problems this year have been the same ALL season long! To me that means accountability is severely lacking! And accountability starts w/ the HC. Thompson will have to take some blame since he hired McCarthy, but its McCarthy’s job to make sure the players play to the level necessary! And that simply hasn’t been the case accross the board!
This team has enough talent to be successful. That is Job #1 for a GM, but that talent simply is not showing up due to the HC!!! THe HC is not putting players in position to be successful, or isn’t making them accountable to their continuous mistakes!
Cowher might see GB as an appealing location. He was in Pittsburgh and GB cannot be worse than that. Plus he is someone who seems to value tradition, making GB a good fit. I don’t know where he lives, but almost any NFL job will require relocation!
by Strohman on Nov 13, 2009 2:30 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I think I agree...
I wasn’t sure that was possible but I think we are on the same page now. I have lost faith in MM. I like the players we have here but they just are NOT performing well. Top down…the entire team is underachieving…that comes back to coaching.
by TrevorR on Nov 13, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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