Analysis: The Best Defenses In The NFL
The weekly DVOA ratings came out on Tuesday from Football Outsiders, and the Green Bay Packers have the No. 1 defense in the NFL. The 49ers have the No. 2 defense.
Overall, both defenses shot up the rankings last week with dominant performances against the Cowboys and Bears, respectively. Both teams play a 3-4 defense, and both are succeeding in the same way: a Top 10 pass defense is anchored by a Top 5 run defense. Another way to measure them is by using the QB Jay Cutler barometer: he threw 4 INTs against the Packers, but 5 INTs against the 49ers.
Over the last 4 weeks, which is after each teams' bye week, here's how they've played:
Packers (2-2). They dominated the Browns and held their woeful offense to 139 yards in total. As a team, the Packers allowed 38 points in each game against the Vikings and Buccaneers, but special teams, and turnovers in the Bucs game, kept handing their opponents great field position. The Packers D held the Vikings offense to just 355 yards in total, and the Bucs to only 279 yards. Their most recent game was their best, as they held the potent Cowboys offense to only 278 yards in total, and forced them to abandon their usually dangerous running game. The only problem area has been their pass defense in the red zone, which has allowed 6 red zone TD receptions in the last 3 games.
49ers (1-3). They held the dangerous Texans offense to only 336 yards, but allowed 3 TDs in the 1st half. The Colts had 410 yards against them, but they held QB Peyton Manning without a TD in Indianapolis. The Titans only had 315 yards of offense, despite another huge game from RB Chris Johnson. And while the Bears managed 350 yards in total against them, the 5 INTs they grabbed made that yardage almost useless.
The Packers have been playing better over this stretch, as their No. 1 ranking would attest to, but the 49ers have played against better competition. I'm not sure the Browns even count as competition. Which defense has appeared more impressive over the last 4 weeks?
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Comments
This team is a mindf#$%**@!
We have a good offense, apparently a top-tier defense, and a kind of excrimenty special teams.
I think I can’t even be a bigger echo chamber for the failure to mentally strengthening this team. From what I watched, players and coaches need to get mentally in the game and focus. It is very hard to win football games when you spot the other team 70-80 yards of free positioning. The play calling could get better as I am beginning to see players adapt to the 3-4 and knowing where they should be. Offense can be a lot better as well on the play calling.
I am going to speculate—something I don’t like to do often—that Capers wasn’t going to call blitzes much during the regular season until he felt his defense grasped his regular season game planning. I know that contradicts what we saw during the preseason with the blitz packages, so I am not confident in my speculation! I just like what I saw on the blitz packages against Dallas. Quick hitting blitzes with in your face corners made it hard for Romo to get a read.
I don’t know though. We will need this defense to hold up their end against some of the better teams down the stretch for the Packers to even begin dreaming about playoffs.
Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge
by Bush League All Star on Nov 18, 2009 8:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
We've played some pretty
Bad teams, so I’m not reading too much into how good our defense is yet…. although the performance against the Cowboys gives me lots of confidence and hope for the rest of the season…
49ers D is pretty stout……
Goooooo-mez!
by Drew C on Nov 18, 2009 10:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Football Outsiders is adjusted
From their explanation: “All numbers below are adjusted based on strength of schedule.”
Take it for what it is. I agree the teams we have beat (besides cowboys) are all pretty weak.
by Acme on Nov 18, 2009 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Packers D has improved, but
those numbers are overblown somewhat due to the competition faced.
Here we are more than/2 way through the season and I don’t think we quite know who this team is. With the exception of the Cowboys, the other four wins are against teams with a combined record of 7 wins against 29 losses.
Otoh, they just beat a Cowboys team who had won 4 straight, completely containing a very good offense for most of the game. So, where does this leave the Packers? Well, they are in four way tie for the wild card at 5-4 with a somewhat favorable schedule.
The questions are:
1. Has the D adjusted to the 3-4 to give consistent performance against the pass and run?
2. Can the offense – line, QB, and play caller combine to slow down the pass rush to allow for some sustained drives, big plays down the field, and/or a consistent run game?
3. Can the special teams pull their collective heads out of their asses? With that, can the team as a whole show some discipline and cutout the unnecessary penalties?
The win against the Cowboys could be something to build off of. This team could be figuring it out at just the right time. It has been a very odd season in the nfl, with only Colts and Saints being able to maintain a consistent high level of play. This leaves the door open for a young team like the Packers to struggle through the 1st half while finding itself and make a 2nd half run.
After the Bucs game, I had written off the playoffs and expected to see weekly inconsistent play. The Dallas game was so enjoyable to watch. Woodson and Matthews flying around like crazy men, actually expecting the D to make plays, and some hard nosed get it done however possible attitude from the offense. Now that was fun. Gentlemen, keep playing like that please!
Some people say the glass is half empty, some say half full. I say, are you going to drink that?
by BleedsbluinMI on Nov 18, 2009 11:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
oops
those numbers are overblown somewhat due to the competition faced.
Here we are more than/2 way through the season and I don’t think we quite know who this team is. With the exception of the Cowboys, the other four wins are against teams with a combined record of 7 wins against 29 losses.
Otoh, they just beat a Cowboys team who had won 4 straight, completely containing a very good offense for most of the game. So, where does this leave the Packers? Well, they are in four way tie for the wild card at 5-4 with a somewhat favorable schedule.
The questions are:
1. Has the D adjusted to the 3-4 to give consistent performance against the pass and run?
2. Can the offense – line, QB, and play caller combine to slow down the pass rush to allow for some sustained drives, big plays down the field, and/or a consistent run game?
3. Can the special teams pull their collective heads out of their asses? With that, can the team as a whole show some discipline and cutout the unnecessary penalties?
The win against the Cowboys could be something to build off of. This team could be figuring it out at just the right time. It has been a very odd season in the nfl, with only Colts and Saints being able to maintain a consistent high level of play. This leaves the door open for a young team like the Packers to struggle through the 1st half while finding itself and make a 2nd half run.
After the Bucs game, I had written off the playoffs and expected to see weekly inconsistent play. The Dallas game was so enjoyable to watch. Woodson and Matthews flying around like crazy men, actually expecting the D to make plays, and some hard nosed get it done however possible attitude from the offense. Now that was fun. Gentlemen, keep playing like that please!
Some people say the glass is half empty, some say half full. I say, are you going to drink that?
by BleedsbluinMI on Nov 18, 2009 11:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
SF D
SF defense is good. They are legit. But, I feel we have a couple of advantages. 1) They have no QB 2) We have them in our house 3) We have J Nelson and Finley back. I also feel Rogers will do much better than Cutler did . As long as we can keep Gore contained. I do like the Idea of putting Woodson in at saftey and matching Tramon Williams on Crabtree. I feel Woodson fits perfect as a saftey in the 3-4. My biggest fear though is that they will not approach this game like Dallas. SF can be dangerous. Minnisota just got em by an extreamly lucky TD. I hope GB can maintain their focus. Go Pack Go!!!!!!!
by turd on Nov 18, 2009 11:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
SF D is dangerous
they fly around the field and hit hard.
Willis is the best LB in the NFL.
We can establish a run game on them and then AR will take apart their secondary which is their weak link.
Their offense is a disaster.
by Acme on Nov 18, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Packers
won’t be able to establish the run against them though. The 49ers have the best run defense in the NFL so I don’t see Grant or Green doing anything on Sunday. I think the Packers will use the short passing game and screens as their run game like they did against the Cowboys. My best hope for them on the ground would be 25 carries for 90ish yards.
The game is gonna come down to the Packers stopping Gore and the run, and the 49ers stopping Rodgers and the pass. The Packers will have no run game and the 49ers will have no pass game.
by GGGamer on Nov 18, 2009 2:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds right
And since SF can rush the passer and since we’ve really been flawless against the run with the exception of Cedric Benson, I’m expecting another low scoring affair like last week.
Special teams play and the turnover battle might be the margin.
Best game I ever attended was the 163rd game last year.
by NorthSidePaulie on Nov 18, 2009 6:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I think the Packers have more impact players and are playing at home so they should be able to pull it out but whoever knows with this team? The fact that the 49ers only really good o-lineman (Staley) is out at LT doesn’t help the 49ers cause either. This should be a Packer win so that scares me.
by GGGamer on Nov 18, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
very scary. Last week we were all sure they would lose.
screw it…the Packers are going to lose. They believe this is an easy game and won’t be as fired up. 49ers will probably have 5 sacks and Gore gets 110 yds.
Packers lose by 4.
There I said it.
by Acme on Nov 18, 2009 6:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If it comes down to special teams play...
then we could be in deep trouble.
by NYCPac on Nov 18, 2009 6:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pass rush
I don’t think SF has much of a pass rush. They have a total of 16? sacks this year. I have to believe that Rodgers may have enough time to take a couple of shots downfield. Packers can’t get obsessed w/ the downfield stuff though. Keep the chains moving by completing the short, high % passes, draw them closer to the LOS then hit them deep maybe 3 or 4 times.
Honestly think that SF will have a MUCH more difficult time moving the ball than we will. Hold Gore to 60-80 yds and make Smith win it for them. Its a recipe that will give Woodson and Collins the opportunity to get some INT’s. I see a Pick-6 coming this game!!!
by Strohman on Nov 18, 2009 8:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I think Tauscher coming back and Lang moving to LG will help solidify our o-line a bit. We won’t have a running game but I think we can exploit them in the passing game.
And I agree, if we can slow Gore down then I think it will be very, very difficult for them to move the ball. Aside from Gore and Davis that offense lacks playmakers, and Davis’ stock has gone down a bit since Smith has been playing more poorly as of late.
I think it will be a lot like our game against Dallas. More of a defense of battle, and relatively low scoring.
by packallday555 on Nov 18, 2009 10:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
is Lang playing LG?
did you read this somewhere?
I wish Colledge would get off the field, but I read Lang was taking snaps at RT again, splitting with Tausch.
Great news, let me know if it is true though.
by Acme on Nov 19, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well last week Lang was set to replace Colledge at LG but wasn’t able to because they needed him at RT with Tauscher hurt. From what I’ve heard Tauscher will be back this week, so I would assume they would move Lang to LG like that had previously planned too.
I could see them switching Tauscher and Lang out on series throughout the game, to kind of ease Tauscher back into things.
by packallday555 on Nov 19, 2009 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Football Outsiders is adjusted
From their explanation: "All numbers below are adjusted based on strength of schedule."
Take it for what it is. I agree the teams we have beat (besides cowboys) are all pretty weak.
Fundamentally, this is a MUCH better system than last years.
Looking at the next 3 games, we should win. Mixing in MM’s poor offensive coordinator skills and the undisciplined up-n-down energy level of our team we will probably only win 2 unfortunately. Baltimore is really not that strong anymore on defense and we can shut down Ray Rice who is probably the best RB in the league right now. They don’t have receivers that can beat us.
by Acme on Nov 18, 2009 11:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
They're both great runners and receivers
And I’d take either one of them. I pushed so hard for the Packers to draft Rice last year and he goes the pick before us in the second round, and we get stuck with Brohm for goodness sake.
by GGGamer on Nov 18, 2009 2:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
receiving yards
RR has double the receiving yards.
CJ is great, but RR is very very good.
by Acme on Nov 18, 2009 2:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i like Ray Rice
a lot. I just had to correct you on the “best RB in the league right now” comment. Johnson is currently on pace to break the Yards from Scrimmage record and YPC by a running back.
by shaftr on Nov 18, 2009 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
D
I don’t see the Pack being the no 1 D in the NFL. I see them as a top 10, but not No 1. We have played some weak offenses, and I know FO adjusts for strength of schedule, but we have our share of problems on D. Unless the level of defensive football has eroded alot, the pack just isn’t the dominant D!
Now IF, big IF there, we can sustain the level of play down the stretch, I would say we might be No. 1… I want to see continuous, sustained dominance from a D to be No. 1
Niners really shouldn’t provide huge test for our D either… Just too unstable at QB to challenge us. I do think our D will keep us in alot of games down the stretch and give us a chance to make the playoffs!
by Strohman on Nov 18, 2009 2:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That rate of passing TDs against us in the red zone
combined with low sack totals and penalty yardage given up on the defense side of the ball (especially the ones that grant 1st downs to prolong drives that have been stopped) would seem to indicate something lower than #1 in my book too.
Best game I ever attended was the 163rd game last year.
by NorthSidePaulie on Nov 18, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This is going to be a good game
I’m really looking forward to this match-up. I hope there are no special teams disasters or tons of penalties (hey I can dream). I really want to see how our offense does against their D and if we can shut down their running game a-la Arizona.
Looks like the 49ers have given up a fair amount of sacks this year. I would be SO happy if we can add a few! Although we kind of exploited those big, slow, Baby Huey linemen last week…
I’m just really psyched for this game!
by Shamalamadingdong on Nov 18, 2009 5:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Looks like the 49ers have given up a fair amount of sacks this year. I would be SO happy if we can add a few! Although we kind of exploited those big, slow, Baby Huey linemen last week…
And their LT is out so the Pack should get good pressure.
by GGGamer on Nov 18, 2009 6:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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