The Football Outsiders playoff odds updated after Green Bay's victory over San Francisco showed some encouraging trends. It should be noted that Green only held a 0.8% chance to take the division, something that would be predicated on the Vikings losing 4 more games than the Packers the rest of the way. Basically, the Packers are battling for a wild card berth.

Those odds gave them a 69.1% chance of locking up a wild card berth, and a 69.8% chance of reaching the playoffs altogether. This was a 14% improvement over the previous week, and surprisingly high given that we were tied record-wise with two other teams (Philadelphia and New York) and one game ahead of another (Atlanta).

Those playoff odds are likely to improve after the Packers beat the Lions to improve to 7-4, and the New York Giants lost to the Denver Broncos to fall to 6-5. Let's take a look at the Packers playoff chances with a bit more analysis, after the jump. We'll be examining the Packers, Dallas (because they are the one division leader that appears not to have everything sewn up already), Philadelphia, New York, and Atlanta. However, Carolina, San Francisco and Chicago will not be included, as their odds were all worse than 10%, and the Packers own the tiebreaker over San Fran by virtue of their victory (San Fran has the best odds of any of the 4-6 teams).

  Green Bay Packers (7-4)

First, we should take a look at the Packers. They still have home games against Baltimore and Seattle left, and road games against Chicago, Pittsburgh and Arizona. It helps to be playing the Ravens at home, and it also helps to be playing Arizona in the last game of the season. By then, the Cardinals should have clinched whatever they can clinch. In fact, if New Orleans and Minnesota keep winning, it's likely that the Cardinals won't have any chance to play for a bye. Given that they'd need to play in a week, they'd probably rest some players, giving the Packers an advantage (if it comes down  to the last week).

I love the Football Outsiders statistics because they use value adjusted stats that take into account how a team performs on every single play, and then examines how the team performs against the league average. The Packers have a lot to be proud about, as the defensive DVOA is at -12.1%, putting them at first in the NFL (take that Dom Capers haters!). Their offensive DVOA isn't much worse at 19.5%, good for fourth in the NFL. However, their special teams really lets them down, as their value adjusted rank is 2nd worst in the league. Overall though, the Packers tend to perform far above the league average in many situations, making them a formidable team (if only we hadn't lost to the Bucs!) Their weighted value score places them at 7th in the NFL in this respect. 

Football Outsiders statistics for the five teams in question. Records are current as of this Friday.

The good news is that, of the five teams effectively competing for a wild card, the Packers have the second easiest remaining schedule, and that they already have one more victory than the team that has the easiest remaining schedule. The Baltimore game should tell a lot, as it will be a matchup of the #6 (Ravens) and #7 (GB) teams in the NFL per the FO rankings. The fact remains that the Packers are a tough team, but they need to start playing for all 60 minutes and closing teams out.

  Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

The Cowboys really helped their case with the win over the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. Their Playoff Odds will likely improve to near or over 90%. That doesn't seal whether or not they'll win the division, but it would take a pretty monstrous collapse for them to fail to get into the playoffs now. Unfortunately for them, they have the 7th toughest remaining schedule in the NFL: home games against San Diego and Philadelphia, and road games against the Giants, the Saints and the Redskins. Only one of those teams is below .500, so it looks like the Cowboys will have a fight on their hands.

For the Packers' sake, I think we want to see the Cowboys keep winning. It will solidify them as a division leader. If they fall out of the lead for the NFC East, we will suddenly have a team to compete with that will have a very good record. However, it is worth pointing out that the Packers hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys by virtue of their win at Lambeau Field. If the Cowboys lose one more game than the Packers the rest of the way out, and they are battling for a playoff spot, the Packers would advance to the playoffs.

  Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)

Since the Packers haven't played the Eagles, the first tie-breaker if they finished with similar records would be conference record. Then it would go to record in common games (with a minimum of four). Currently the Packers have an NFC record of 6-3, and the Eagles own a 5-2 record. This is where the Buccaneers game really hurts. The rest of the Packers NFC matches should be easier than their games against the Steelers and the Ravens. The Eagles, meanwhile, still have to play on the road against Atlanta, New York Giants, and the Cowboys, and at home against the Redskins, Broncos (AFC) and 49ers. If I had to put money on it, I'd say the Eagles would wind up with more conference losses than the Packers, but let's not forget that the Eagles are a tough team - they are 5th in the league in weighted DVOA, tops in the NFC East. Both the Packers and Eagles have played the Bucs, the Cowboys, the Bears, and will play the 49ers. Right now, the Packers are 3-1 in such games, with one left against the Bears, and the Eagles are 2-1 with two games left against the Cowboys and 49ers. Thus, the Packers will probably hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Eagles at the end of the season (barring something crazy), which means we probably want the Cowboys to have a fair amount of success. 

Either way, the Eagles are a tough team, and I'm fairly confident that the NFC East will field one of the wild card teams. Right now, the Eagles hold a significant advantage over the Giants. I'm thinking that the NFC East teams will beat up on each other, and that should provide the Packers with some margin of error. 

  New York Giants (6-5)

The Giants' loss to the Broncos really helped clear up the playoff picture, and probably boosted the Packers' playoff odds quite a bit. It exposed the fact that the Giants have a lot of problems. They got their clock cleaned by New Orleans and haven't been the same since. They've lost 4 of their last 5, and it doesn't get any easier as they have three consecutive divisional games left, and have to close out the season in the Metrodome. They have the 2nd toughest remaining schedule in the NFL per Football Outsiders.

Given all of that, it's really tough to see the Giants climbing back into it. They have a 4-3 record in NFC games so far, putting them with an equal number of losses as the Packers in the first tiebreaker, and 2 wins in the hole. They still have to play home games against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Carolina, and road games against Washington and Minnesota. 

  Atlanta Falcons (5-5)

The Falcons need a lot of help as their playoff odds were worse than a coin flip before the weekend started, a lot of the teams ahead of them won, and even if they win, they'll still be tied with the Giants, whom they'd lose the tiebreaker to. Luckily for them, they still have two games left against Tampa Bay, one against Buffalo at home, and one on the road against the Jets. However, they also still have to play the Saints and Eagles at home. Their margin of error is razor thin. 

What We Need To Happen

• Take care of business. We won't make the playoffs if we don't win games. I don't think it's necessary to win out, but we will probably need to win 3 games or more out of our remaining 5.
• Have the Falcons fade out. They have a pretty easy schedule. Ideally you'd like to have them lose to the Saints and Eagles as those are their most likely losses.
• Have the Giants fade out. They're doing a pretty good job of this already. If this happens, then it doesn't matter what the Eagles or Cowboys records' are, as the Packers would qualify for the playoffs over the Falcons and Giants.