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Status of The Packers Post Week 8

Week 8's loss to the Vikings has left many of us Packers fans in shambles but the outlook for the rest of the season is not so bleak. As it stands right now, if the playoffs were to start today, the Packers would be on the outside looking in but that does not mean that we don't control our own destiny due to our second half schedule. By dissecting the first 8 weeks of the season and breaking down the team by positions hopefully we can clearly the muddy waters that has been the Packers season thus far.

Star-divide

Offense

Quarterback

We all understand that Aaron Rodgers is an upper echelon quarterback but the way he has been playing is not only dictated by the position he is in. It doesn't matter if you put Rodgers behind the NFC's Pro Bowl offensive line, he just isn't giving himself a chance to be successful. His stats show that he is clearly having a great season but numbers only go so far without game film. Aaron is holding onto the ball for too long, this could mean one of two things, either Mike McCarthy is calling a bad game because his routes are taking too much time to develop against talented pass rushers like Jared Allen, or Aaron Rodgers is not going through his progressions properly. Against a team like the Vikings, who in my opinion have the best defensive line in football, he has to understand that his progressions have to be quicker and he has to be able to check down or throw away the ball before being hit. On the lighter side of this, Rodgers has displayed his athletic side as he stands second in rushing on the Packers. Obviously the sacks are not all his fault, (the offensive line will be addressed later) but to take that next step in his progression towards becoming an elite quarterback, he has to start to understand the game on a level that only elite quarterbacks can.

Wide Receiver

As usual, WR is a strong point of the Packers but the production is coming from different sources then the past few years. Most experts predicted that Greg Jennings would be the focus of the offence, thus moving him into the realm of top receivers in the NFL, surprising to most, Jennings is off to a slow start. The bulk of the receiving load has been carried by steady veteran Donald Driver, who leads the Packers in almost all receiving categories. The signs coming from Driver are very positive as some experts predicted his eventual demise due to age. The third and fourth receiver spots are nearly interchangeable with James Jones and Jordy Nelson playing key parts in 3 and 4 receiver sets. Unfortunately for Nelson, he has been sidelined for a significant portion of time and was unable to contribute, leaving the door open for James Jones who has been alright but nothing spectacular. The 5th receiver spot has been left vacant after the season ending injury to Brett Swain. The receivers should continue to be solid throughout the year but for the Packers to dominate like they did in the preseason, they are going to need Greg Jennings to return to his deep threat form.

Running Backs

The primary runner for the Packers over the past three seasons has been Ryan Grant and it has become painfully obvious that he probably will not return back to 2007 breakout form. To the dismay of many, the Packers seem to be one of the only teams in the NFL to not deploy a running back by comity system, essentially because Ryan Grant is the only NFL starting caliber running back on the Packers roster. The addition of Ahman Green and the success of Brandon Jackson on third down is nice but the Packers need a second option to run the ball with consistency. Obviously this saviour back is not going to come out of nowhere midseason (Samkon Gado and 2007 Ryan Grant happen to disagree) but for the Packers to have success in the future, they must improve at this position. As for the rest of the season, lets keep our collective fingers crossed that Ryan Grant stays healthy and keeps up his average performances. 

Offensive Line

The Packers offensive line has been exactly that, downright offensive. With different combinations seemingly each week, fans are subject to the horror of watching the oppositions best pass rusher, (Jared Allen, Antwan Odom, Adewale Ogunleye) bear down on the future of the Packers franchise. This constant barrage of sacks seems to be getting to Aaron Rodgers and beyond staying healthy, he has to stay confident for us to win. Its not to say that Mike McCarthy hasn't been trying though, LT Chad Clifton and C Jason Spitz have been injured for multiple games thus throwing rookie T.J Lang and former starter Scott Wells into the fire, or forcing McCarthy to move LG Daryn Colledge to LT thus moving Spitz to LG. Despite the attempted quick fixes, the Packer had nearly zero success in the trenches thus far. On that note, a life raft is heading our way with the return of Chad Clifton and the eventual return of Mark Tauscher, recently resigned off the free agent wire. Putting T.J Lang and Allen Babre back on the bench can hopefully help stop the bleeding because if these problems aren't fixed, the Packers will sink faster then the titanic.

Tight Ends

Jermichael Finley has finally started to produce with some consistency, unfortunately he is sidelined with an injury, allowing Donald Lee to step back into the role as the primary receiving threat from the tight end position. The surprise of the season has been the recent effectiveness of Special Team/Linebacker/Tight End Spencer Havner in the red zone. Havner has three touchdowns in two games and him and Rodgers seem to be on the same page. With the eventual return of Finley and the emergence of Havner, the Packers look fine at the tight end position.

Full Back

The Packers enjoy running out of the full house back field allowing them to use two full backs, Korey Hall and John Kuhn, but that has not been the case this season. With Korey Hall down with an injury, the Packers have changed there approach allowing John Kuhn to be the goal line back and letting rookie Quinn Johnson take over the majority of blocking duties. To an extent this has been successful and it seems the Packers will deploy these looks for the remainder of the season.

 

Defense

Defensive Line

The success of the defensive line has, and will continue to be, a very big factor in the success of the team. The nose tackle position has been the most consistent position along the line due to Ryan Pickett's successful first half. As for the defensive ends, they have been nonexistent at times but when the rotation of B.J Raji, Cullen Jenkins and Johnny Jolly show up, they have been very solid.The Packers improved run defense is in large part due to the success of the line but in order for the Packers to make that jump they must get some sort of pass rush working in obvious passing situations.

Linebackers

The transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 has not come easy for the Packers this year, especially for the linebackers. The first half was not up to expectations for this revamped, Dom Capers led defense and most of the blame is shifting towards the linebackers and the play calling. As expected, Aaron Kampman has been seemingly lost in pass coverage and has been less effective in rushing the passer without his hand in the ground, these factors alone made him a commodity prior to the trade deadline. The Houdini act that A.J Hawk is playing with Packers fans is really puzzling as he will have games where he has 9 tackles then a week later he will only play 9 snaps. The spotty play of A.J Hawk has opened the way for a nice rotation at the inside linebacker position involving Nick Barnett, Hawk, Brandon Chillar and occasionally Desmond Bishop. Once again the solid run defense is in large part to the sideline to sideline abilities these athletes have and this should continue throughout the season. The best player amongst the linebackers has been rookie OLB Clay Matthews who seems to get better every snap he takes. After taking over the starting position during the Packers visit to the Metro Dome, he has been imposing his will on opposing running backs and quarterbacks. The continued improvement of Matthews along with the use of Aaron Kampman in a three point stance on obvious passing downs will hopefully create more pressure leading to more success, failing these things the Packers should BLITZ every so often. 

Cornerbacks 

The duo of Al Harris and Charles Woodson haven't exactly been showing their age, but they haven't been locking down either. The Dom Camper's defensive scheme is not something Al Harris is used to because it does not call for him to be physical at the line thus devaluing his play slightly. Charles Woodson on the other hand is playing up to his ability at this point in his career, which is still a very high level. The one aspect which puzzles me a lot is that Charles Woodson has not been called up to blitz as often as he should. In the preseason the Packers used many exotic blitz packages including using Woodson in many of them and we all know the success of the Packers defense in the preseason. As for the nickel position, I have been very impressed with the play of Tramon Williams. Quietly, Tramon is in on many plays and he rarely gets beat. As long as the Packers can generate a decent pass rush their secondary should be more then adequate. 

Safeties

When healthy, Atari Bigby and Nick Collins make up a more then formidable duo, but healthy is the key word in that statement. Atari missed significant time earlier in the season opening up space to put in the revolving doors of Aaron Rouse (on the NY Giants now) and Darrick Martin and needless to say they lacked the skill to be regular NFL players. Nick Collins could miss some time after sustaining an injury in the Vikings game and that could spell trouble for the Packers. The run support from Atari Bigby is a strength as usual and when both are playing, they have not been the source of the problems. Once again the problems stem from the lack of pressure, bringing Atari up to the line for a few blitzes would not be a bad idea because he has shown proficiency at this in the past.

Upcoming Schedule

Our next game which is @ Tampa Bay should look very much like the Cleveland and Detroit games so nothing should be taken from that game. Dallas and San Fran coming to Lambeau have wild card implications and even though it is still fairly early, every game is important from here on. After that the Packers to Detroit for the Thanksgiving game which should be another cupcake. The hardest part of our season is Baltimore, @ Chicago and @ Pittsburgh where it would be ideal if we came out with two wins, these games will see if the Packers are a Playoff team. Then we finish with Seattle and across the country @ Arizona. The last two game will probably be must wins and the Packers may be in luck depending on how well Arizona does in the second half, they could see alot of back ups in a must win scenario.

Predicted Final Record- 10-6

Whether 10-6 will get us a playoff spot is yet to be seen.

0 recs  |  Comment 17 comments

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I don't think we've seen Rodgers run enough

I know he’s a pocket passer by trade, and I certainly don’t expect him to be the next Michael Vick, but part of getting away from pressure can come in several venues. One of them is throwing the ball away, which we all know he has a tendency to not do. But another is running when there are some seems, even if you can only get 2-3 yards before sliding. We saw a lot of that in the first half of the Vikings game where Rodgers was tentative and either didn’t run (and took a sack), or else took off a few seconds too late and minimized the possible gains.

I think some more bootleg calls would help get Rodgers more comfortable with running, naked or otherwise. Combine that with more screens and slants to help him get a feel for letting go of the ball quicker and it should really help his development.

As for Havner’s success, time will tell, but I have a feeling it’s more of a Samkon Gado effect- teams weren’t expecting him so they didn’t know how to prepare for him. I’ll eat some crow if he’s still doing what he’s doing a year from now, but I don’t expect him to continue to have the same success once people gameplan for him.

Regarding the defense not “living up to expectations” the first half, I’m not sure where you get that impression. The first year in a new system, I don’t think very many people had high expectations at all. I certainly didn’t, and the feeling I get around here is that we’ve in general shown marked improvement over last season, which by far exceeds expectations. Players may look lost out there because they are, for many of them they’re learning entirely new concepts, but we knew that going in.

by Danwood on Nov 4, 2009 8:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Expectations

I think everyone was expecting a better defense with Dom Capers as DC. I read many articles and quotes from players about how unpredictable the pass rush would be, and 12 sacks (5 in the Detroit game alone) in 7 games isn’t too fearsome. Though the run defense has far exceeded my expectations.

by Brandon on Nov 4, 2009 11:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think our d-line,

while not back to the level it was in 2007, has been the strength of our defense. Cullen Jenkins more often than not is dominating games and Ryan Pickett is really playing well.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Nov 5, 2009 1:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose

Perhaps I am the minority then, but I wasn’t expecting that big of an upgrade this year. I’ve been happy with the run defense as you said, and been MUCH happier with our tackling in most games. Our pass defense has been high risk, high reward for several years now, and the fact that hasn’t changed has been ok for me since the other areas have improved. I wouldn’t consider our pass defense to be any worse than it has ever been.

by Danwood on Nov 5, 2009 6:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

The tackling fundamentals seem to be there. Gang tackle, wrapping up and driving the ball carrier. I still believe the 3-4 has not taken full effect yet and may not do so until players stop making bonehead mistakes and just react. I will give it some time. I remember reading through a post awhile ago with someone saying that it takes about 8-9 games to fully grasp the 3-4. Whether that is true or not, who knows. I look forward to their defense next year.

The only downside is that I wish they could use Kampman better. He is a 4-3 end, but I can’t see him as a 3-4 OLB. He needs to be head down rushing the QB and getting up field. Coverage just makes me cry.

Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge

by Bush League All Star on Nov 5, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Last Season

If I recall correctly, this was coached out of him last year, around midway through the season. He was making some big plays with his feet, but there was sizable concern from commentators and coaches about the risk to his durability. This was seemingly born out when he was injured in Tampa (see link below). I actually happened to be at that game, and recall him running out of a collapsing pocket and still got hammered.

After that game, his yards scrambling seemed to taper off quickly. I want to say that McCarthy commented something to that effect that they didn’t want him risking himself, but I’m too lazy to go research it.
Archived article from last year: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3616373

by WisconsInExile on Nov 6, 2009 8:30 PM CST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like cutting off your ear to spite your face

Injuries happen. So instead of saying “Slide at the end of your run” or “run out of bounds and avoid contact”, we just say (implied or otherwise) to not run. Not a fan of that decision.

by Danwood on Nov 7, 2009 6:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

overrated due to opposition

the defense stats have been padded by playing 3 really bad teams, and soon we will play the 4th in 8 games. Reality suggests if QB pressures are not dramatically increased and lackadaisical schemes scrapped, we will not compete in the tough ones.

by daldog on Nov 5, 2009 10:32 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

This is a valid point

We have played some really bad teams. Our defensive AND offensive stats accordingly can’t tell us a whole lot. When we play better teams, however, it seems as though we just aren’t measuring up.

by ktenreb on Nov 5, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand that we need to consider

that we have played three really bad teams but in those games we have given up a total of 20 points. In games against those same three really bad teams the Vikings gave up 43 points. The Lions are averaging 16 points a game and we gave up 0. They scored 20 against the Steelers the week before. The Browns are averaging 11 points a game and we gave up 3. The Vikings gave up 20 to them. The Rams are averaging 11 points a game and we gave up 17 to them while the Vikings gave up 10. If these games shouldn’t be taken into consideration because they are against really bad teams then what does say about a defense like the Vikings? They have given up 174 points so far. Thats almost 25 a game. The Packers have given up 134 points so far. Thats 19 a game. The three times that we have lost this season (against the only good teams we have played) we have given up 30+ but I don’t think you can say that our D is in serious trouble simply because of their performance in those 3 games. I don’t deny that taking care of bad teams has helped the defensive rankings but just because those teams are bad doesn’t mean those stats or those wins are thrown out. If our offensive line can give Rodgers some time back there I think we stand a good chance against our upcoming opponents. But that’s a pretty big if, I’ll admit.

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Nov 5, 2009 3:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind…its very possible that we might find out that the Vikings are one of the elite offenses this year. Giving up 30 some points to an elite offense isn’t an unforgivable action. My heart almost went out just typing that but sadly it might be true. They’ve been able to do as they please in most of the games so far this season. In fact, I would argue their offense has been much better than their D and AP hasn’t even gotten his training wheels off yet!!

by TrevorR on Nov 5, 2009 3:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

crap

then go through every other team and take out all the ‘bad’ opponents and have a new ranking system. We would be in a similar spot.

Vikings have played similar teams, Pats played Bucs, Pitt played Det, etc.

We beat the crap out of NFL teams, and I am shocked that Jenkins and Woodson are complaining about the defense. It is the best defense either of them have played on and they are still improving.

However, I still don’t understand why we can’t pressure QB’s more.

If our offense would have done more than 47 yards and 3pts against Minn in the 1st half, we win that game. Then Jenkins says it is the best defense.

by Acme on Nov 6, 2009 9:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rose colored glasses

Needed to see the defense as adequate, even adequate, not good. Near zero pass rush. If we get to the playoffs we will 3 man rush ourselves into oblivion. Dum Capers sits in the press box and will not make adjustments to what every person in America can see

by daldog on Nov 7, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Capers

has a tremendous track record as a DC. His history as Head Coach is a little more suspect but I think we need to be patient with Capers and see how the defense progresses as the season moves on. I hate the 3 man rush and agree that our pass rush this year has been less than I what I was expecting, but its not like our pass rush last year was any good either. We have had difficulty getting to the QB for the past couple of years it seems.

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Nov 7, 2009 2:30 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Mostly Accurate

I agree for the most part. However, I’m not convinced that Rodgers is such a primary culprit in the sack totals. Certainly when a QB is being sacked so frequently it makes sense to get rid of the ball more quickly. But of 30-40 dropbacks, how many times is he really well protected? Even when he has ‘held the ball too long’, he’s been moving around trying to avoid the pass rush, which results in holding the ball longer. The OL basically sucks. We let Jamon Meredith go and he starts for the Bills. Barbre and Giacomini will only stick around a season or so, and probably not play elsewhere. What is happening with decision-making concerning the OL???

by MikeDB on Nov 6, 2009 10:38 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Meredith started after the starter went down to injury…its not like he played his way in. ON top of that, I really can’t say that he played all that well, Buffalo is comatose on offense!

…AND he is now injured himself and on the shelf for the season so I guess we didn’t miss out on so much this year.

by TrevorR on Nov 6, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Jermichael Finley has finally started to produce with some consistency

It kind of hard to use the word ‘finally’ here, considering how long this guy has been around. I’m pretty sure this is only his second season, and he’s made quite a splash. I think that time table is a big positive. And yes, Spence is killing it out there. I was super impressed with his ability to feel out and disect the coverage he was sneaking through in the Vikings game. It’s nice that we have yet another player for defenses to take into account.

by StephanL on Nov 6, 2009 6:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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