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Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Buccaneers

The first thing that jumps out is zero, which is the number of 2009 wins by the last remaining winless team this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They looked very good in week 4 last season when they beat the Packers 30-21, but that seems like a long time ago. Since then they've fired their Super Bowl winning head coach, their long time defensive coordinator left for the University of Tennessee, and they've released or traded several defensive starters, including Pro Bowl LB Derrick Brooks. After an ugly loss to the Patriots in London, the Bucs are coming off the bye-week and giving their rookie 1st round QB Josh Freeman his first NFL start. As long as I'm dumping on the Bucs, I might as well mentioned how they shot themselves in the foot by firing Ron Wolf back in 1978.

Sometimes a record doesn't tell the whole story. But in this case it does; the Bucs are as bad as they look.

Instead of using the official NFL stats this week, I'm going with Football Outsiders. The problem with the official stats, which are based on yards/game, is that they don't take into account that their opponents have only attempted 180 passes against the Bucs, which is the lowest total in the NFL. I don't know why teams aren't throwing the ball against them because they aren't very good at stopping them: they've allowed 16 TDs to 8 INTs while their opponents' QB rating against them is 102.1. So from Football Outsiders.com:

Team Run Offense Pass Offense Run Defense Pass Defense
   Packers      13 8 6 7
Team Run Defense Pass Defense Run Offense Pass Offense
Buccaneers 30 31 20 26

Star-divide

While RB Ryan Grant isn't running his way to the Pro Bowl this season, the Bucs aren't stopping anyone, only holding their opponents to 4.7 yards/carry. That's similar to the Browns, who allow 4.9 yards/carry, and Grant ran over them for 148 yards and 1 TD. Packers.

As I mentioned above the jump, though teams aren't throwing a lot of passes against the Bucs, it doesn't mean they are stopping the ones that are thrown. QB Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating of 110.4, Bucs are "holding" their opponents to a 102.1 QB rating - it sounds like a matchup Rodgers should win. Packers.

If the Bucs have one bright spot, it's their running game, which is moving along at a 4.2 yards/carry. Both of their top rushers, RB Cadillac Williams and RB Derrick Ward, are over 4 yards/carry this season. But the Packers run defense has been even better, holding opponents to 3.5 yards/carry, while only allowing 3 rushing TDs and recovering 4 fumbles. The Bucs rushing attack is doing about as well as Detroit and Cleveland, and neither of those teams did much running the ball against the Packers earlier this season. Packers.

While not as good as last season, the Packers pass defense is still very good with 11 INTs and holding their opponents to a QB rating of 74.4. The Bucs have been awful the last 4 weeks with QB Josh Johnson as their starter, not that QB Byron Leftwich did much in the 3 games he started. So, as mentioned before the jump, they are turning to the rookie Freeman. It's hard to know how the rookie will play, but if he is truly better than Johnson or Leftwich (at this point in his career) you'd think he would have started before week 8. Packers.

Packers 38, Bucs 10.

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win and don't get hurt

is the goal for the week.

then prepare and destroy the cowgirls.

for many reasons, I still hate the cowgirls more than any other team. Their fans, their owner, etc. They are the exact opposite of the Packers and we NEED to win that game to have a chance at the playoffs.

hopefully our o-line is ready to go, because Demarcus Ware is a beast.

Oh, sorry, the Bucs, ummm…very scary, tough game, GO Pack Go.

If we don’t win this game I am done for the season because MM has officially lost the team.

Haven’t seen the line, but it is probably 14+pts.

by Acme on Nov 6, 2009 9:21 AM CST reply actions  

I agree

lets put away the Bucs and then beat the hell out of the Cowboys.

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Nov 6, 2009 1:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Classic trap game scenario

The Packers should be careful this week. They are coming off a very emotional game last week, and looking at a game with playoff implications next week. The team they will play on Sunday is supposed to be a pushover so they’ll be easy to look past. A classic trap is set. The Pack can beat the Bucs easily as long as they focus on the task at hand.

by Belarus on Nov 6, 2009 6:44 PM CST up reply actions  

No argument from me

Something we can agree on :)

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Nov 7, 2009 2:36 PM CST up reply actions  

I'll be darned

make note of the date… :)

by Belarus on Nov 7, 2009 5:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Lets not overlook the bucs

every team has to win once a year..or are the bucs that bad?

V/R
Ted Thompson, GM
Green Bay Packers
1265 Lombardi Ave.
Green Bay, Wisconsin 54304
Tel: 920-569-7500

by Ted Thompson on Nov 6, 2009 9:41 AM CST reply actions  

The Bucs are that bad

With how good Flynn has been in practice, I think the Packers could sit out Rodgers for this game and still win. Flynn would play better than Freeman who wasn’t even good in college. The Packers can’t prove anything anymore by beating up on a terrible team so they just need to rest every guy that is fairly dinged up and get a win.

by GGGamer on Nov 6, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Freeman who wasn’t even good in college

You’re right on that one. Worst stats for a 1st round QB I’ve ever seen. Why did they draft that chump anyway?

by Jayrome007 on Nov 6, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Potential

That is why so many GM’s in the NBA fail. Drafting on potential gets you that great player once or twice a decade but leads to many many more failures over time. Freeman could eventually be good but he wasn’t in college so I would guess he won’t be any good in the NFL. Just my 2 cents.

by GGGamer on Nov 7, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Potential schm-ential

I can’t wait to see Freeman bust into a million pieces. Not because I harbor any ill feelings toward him as a person or player, but rather because for every Troy Williamson, JaMarcus Russell, Mike Maluga type player that gets drafted on potential and bursts, I think maybe – just maybe – GMs will start taking notice and STOP DRAFTING THEM SO HIGH!!! Recognizing failure (of yourself and others) and correcting the mistakes is a sign of intelligence. Thus, failing to do so indicates stupidity. And I’m sick of stupid GMs ruining teams in this great league (Al Davis, I’m looking at you…).

by Jayrome007 on Nov 8, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Ok, so I was a little premature on that one… Sorry, Josh.

And thank you. Thank you very much.

by Jayrome007 on Nov 8, 2009 7:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Expectations

Yeah, the Packers need to just stick this one in the out-box. That’s what a good team does against an inferior opponent.

However, once the win comes, I don’t want to see players and coaches talking about how this game “shows what we’re capable of” or “we’re really coming together as a team” or blah blah blah. They’ve got to win a big game before they can claim anything about being a legitimately good team. I want to see some attitude and mental and physical toughness from this team.

by Curly Lambeau on Nov 6, 2009 2:00 PM CST reply actions  

YES!

Just stick it to Tampa, don’t preach about it, and move on. The Packers need to really get better though (mostly mentally)

Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge

by Bush League All Star on Nov 8, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Don't make a mistake...

And make sure not to overlook this struggling team. There is the unknown of the rookie QB starting for the first time to consider. I doubt the Bucs will win, but there is always the chance for an emotional let-down after a big game. I hope the Packers do not crumble after falling last week. I think they rise to the occasion in this game at least.

Green Bay needs a confidence boost.

by starmark on Nov 6, 2009 2:46 PM CST reply actions  

Packers going down

As a resident of Toilet Town and a life long Cowboys fan it is going to be great to crush the pitiful fudge packers for the 3rd straight year. Kepp making excuses packer fans but your team and your organization is pathetic!

by green bay cowboy on Nov 6, 2009 5:09 PM CST reply actions  

Cowboys? Ha! It is to laugh

Go talk to your gandpa, and he can tell you all about the last time the Cowboys won a playoff game. If you need to remind him, it was right before the Packers won the Super Bowl.

But, I’m sure Wade Phillips’ awesome playoff experience will change all that. Or maybe you could get Dave Campo to take over again? He just wins!

by DaveInTucson on Nov 6, 2009 5:22 PM CST up reply actions  

5 Super Bowls

Cowboys have 5 SB wins, Pack has 3. Thank you very much! Enuff said!

by green bay cowboy on Nov 6, 2009 8:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Well,

they could try to get Jimmy Johnson back. After all, look what he did for the Dolphins!

by DaveInTucson on Nov 6, 2009 11:43 PM CST up reply actions  

12 championships

IceBowl

Lombardi generally dominating Landry during both organizations peaks

ect. ect.

FIRE GREG WALKER NOW!!!!!!!!!

by blackoutsox on Nov 6, 2009 11:47 PM CST up reply actions  

+1

This

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Nov 7, 2009 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Go talk to your gandpa, and he can tell you all about the last time the Cowboys won a playoff game.

A++++

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Nov 7, 2009 2:38 PM CST up reply actions  

monkey

“Kepp making excuses packer fans but your team and your organization is pathetic!”

Really?!?

I don’t know where to start with this. Grammar or the retardation?

We will let the “green bay cowboy” try to figure out the grammar part. It will be a fun game where he can invite the other members from his family over and guess what is wrong. However, they will all say nothing because they haven’t figured out that there is a world outside of Texas yet. Ah, ignorance is bliss…

Re: the retardation part, not one single poll anywhere would show the cowgirls organization rated higher then the Packers organization. ESPN has it as the Steelers then the Packers.

Regardless what happens in two weeks, your owner and coach suck b*lls. Plus, your Vegas style, everything is bigger in texas stadium will never be the experience of Lambeau field. Quality over quantity.

by Acme on Nov 7, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions  

The line

Is Packers -10 or -9½, depending on who you ask.

Unless the Blue Fairy has visited Josh Freeman’s since preseason and turned him into a Real Football Player, Packers should win, maybe just on defensive scores alone.

by DaveInTucson on Nov 6, 2009 5:11 PM CST reply actions  

That would be lovely.

I’d love to see our defense carry the team this game. Nothing like a good pick-6 to give a unit some confidence going into next week’s game.

by hollycrat on Nov 6, 2009 5:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Trying Too Hard

I think the Packers will play well in Tampa (though not perfect). I’m beginning to suspect that disparity between their play in the Viking games is not so much due to “strength of schedule” as it is pressure. I think this team plays great when they are relaxed and focused. The pre-season wins, the Detroit shutout, the Browns near shutout, the Cutler face-palming, the issue with lack of “progress transferring to the field”…I feel like everyone is ignoring the elephant in the middle of the room. Setting aside the loss to the Bengals for a moment, we are talking about two losses to just one team. Not just any team. Not just any two division games.

We all know what those two games meant to fans emotionally. I believe this Packer team cares quite a bit about their fans, and even moreso about Aaron Rodgers. I think they really wanted to win those games for their QB and the fans. Maybe they internalized it a little bit too much, and tried just a bit too hard during both games. Notice how they played their best when behind by two or more scores? I think that is why McCarthy sounds like a broken record. He sees solid play at practice, and in games where expectations are low. He sees bizarre errors during big games.

These guys are young, and are still tryig to find their identity as a team that is still living in Favre’s shadow. I am certain they do their best not to think about it. But when the bad break in a high-stakes game pops up, they seem to have a tough time bouncing back. They seem to be particularly vulnerable to momentum and the emotional flow of the game (see Penalties, Communication, and Mental Errors for more). I think teams comprised of more seasoned players, like the Vikings, are in a position to exploit that.

We all know what the TV commentators, discussion boards, and blogs are all talking about right now. That’s what Favre’s current unretirement means in the NFC North for now, and maybe the next season or two. I think that younger players like Mathews and Havner are standing out because their play is consistent during big games. I think the more the team tries to force big plays in games, the more quarters we will like the first two from last week. The more the team accepts what the other team will give them, and have faith in the coaching and gameplan, the more quarters we will see like the final two from last week.

My gut says they will be fine against Tampa, and will scratch out some tough wins in the games ahead. But high expectation games will probably not break their way, until they rank a little older than they do know. I think the recent influx of veterans will help more than people give them credit for. Time will tell.

by WisconsInExile on Nov 6, 2009 9:18 PM CST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Goodo points

Maybe with such a young team, they don’t take to the pressure so well as say veteran players. Could be something to postulate. I generally don’t buy into the rookie error mentality because often times you will see veteran players make similar mistakes.

I think the Packers are a capable team. They just often beat themselves with stupidity and lack of concentration. When they are playing good, they look like the best team in the league. But when they are faultering, they look like a high school team.

The Packers need to control their ebbs and flows. Good teams will control the valley-side of their play to minimize that. I just see the Packers struggling—mightily—with this, and this alone seems to take them out of the game. With the sacks, penalties, and general stupid play, the Packers seem to be spotting other teams with 150 yards of free field. That crap needs to stop now. Won’t be able to win crucial games playing into a head-wind of dumb mistakes each and every game and try to come back on teams (although they have been close to doing so).

Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge

by Bush League All Star on Nov 8, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

All very good points

but I think people are trying to spot problems here and problems there because the Packers have been so inconsistent, but I think it really comes down to one single thing (I guess two things) the offensive line and Ryan Grant. Obviously against Minnesota last week kickoffs were a huge problem, but in general almost every negative that comes out of Packer games evolves from the offensive line and the lack of a running game.

The defense has been pretty good outside of the Vikings games and I put the first game on Derrick Martin playing absolutely terrible and Capers never blitzing. The problem the Packers have is Rodgers has to win every game for them on offense because there is no running game so defenses pin their ears back and come at him, and there are no tackles to protect him whatsoever. If the Packers had two good tackles, Grant would be more effective which would allow Rodgers to be more effective, and the offense would become Saints-like. I don’t see anything changing this season at all, but if the Packers can get a running back and two tackles next season I think the sky is the limit.

by GGGamer on Nov 8, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions  

I think that..

 they will be fine. Also I think this is a good chance for Toucher and Cliffton to get there feet wet and tune up for the Cowboy game. Also I think when healthy we would have a great trio of tight ends in Havner, Finley, and Lee. Also to those self proclaimed America’s team rooters, (I don’t remember getting a vote). 90 years,12 championships, 26 pro bowlers (27 if you include Favre) speaks for it’s self. Lambeau Field is a shrine to football and the new dallas stadium is a circus. The stadium had to be big enough to hold Jerry’s ego.So you call our organation pathetic Pleease!!!

by cheddarhead on Nov 7, 2009 10:56 PM CST reply actions  

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