Special Teams and DVOA
Big day for me today, my first FanPost at APC! I was checking out the updated DVOA rankings over at Football Outsiders and something stood out at me. Comparing the Packers and Vikings across the board rankings:
MIN:Offense: 19.3% (6) Defense: -2.6% (10) ST: 7.8% (1)
GB: O: 18.1 % (8) D: -16.4% (1!) ST: -7.9% (32)
When comparing offense and defense, the Pack and the Vikings are almost equal - they have a slightly better offense, we have a slightly better defense. The massive, massive difference is in special teams - they are best in the league, we are clearly the worst. This seemed to be borne out in the games as well, especially game 2, where Harvin's kick return took the wind out of a potential Packers' comeback. This suggests two major questions to me -
1. Are there any personnel or coaching changes that could result in the Packers having at least mediocre, rather than abjectly horrible special teams? Does anybody with a higher football IQ then me have any insight into actually what is happening on a regular basis with our kick coverage. Obviously our return game isn't good - and Nelson's fumbles drag this down, but the kick coverage seems to be the biggest glaring error. This seems to be where the Packers could get the most bang for their buck so to speak in preparation for the playoffs.
2. Favre has been spectacular this year, and certainly has contibuted massively to the Vikings improvement offensively. But could Percy Harvin be the real difference maker for their team? I don't ever recall the Vikings having great special teams before - in fact, they seemed to be atrocious most years. Moreover, the Vikings always seemed to be in the boat the Packers are in this year - giving up big plays in special teams to lose games. How have they adjusted?
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Coaching isn't necessarily the issue, but...
1. Slocum is in his first year, and to be honest, I personally think there are two things that have factored into the poor special teams play: injuries, and inconsistency in the kicking game. It certainly doesn’t help that Blackmon, an elite returner when healthy, seems to have the injury bug every year. Injuries to Jordy and Tremon mean we’ve occasionally been working with returners 4-5 on the depth chart this season-and that’s just the returners- injuries throughout the depth chart on the team have set us up with some poor coverage and blocking packages. Inexperience certainly doesn’t breed skill. As for the kicking game, Crosby must have some head issues going on, as his accuracy on field goals has clearly gone downhill this year. Its evidently affecting him on kickoffs as well, I’ve counted a few this year that have either been shanks out of bounds or completely to the opposite of our coverage. The punting game has obviously also been inconsistent. Kapinos is sometimes brilliant, but occasionally looks like he doesn’t have a clue. How much that lies on the shoulders of coaching is up to the masses, but I’m willing to give the staff the benefit of the doubt for now. Last year we had a solid special teams unit, coached by a staff Slocum took part in, so I think he at least deserves another chance.
2. For now, I’m not sold on Harvin. He’s had some great returns this year, and plays with a lot of intensity, but I am not yet persuaded he’s a future star in the league; again, only time will tell. The NFL is never kind to return players for more than 2-3 years (see: Desmond Howard, Dante Hall, Devin Hester, Josh Cribbs), and with Harvin being a go to guy at receiver as well, I think health and coverage schemes will be huge factors into whether or not he becomes a flash in the pan, or a long term threat. At his size, and young age, its equally likely he’s the next Dante Hall as the next Steve Smith. As far as improvement overall in special teams, with the Vikings you just have to consider the kickers. Consistency is huge- Kluwe and Longwell have each been playing for the same coach and team for the past five years- and I think in special teams, experience and familiarity are really important. ST units are notorious for constant change from year to year, with cuts, signings, and rookies. It’s much easier to put just a few pieces into the puzzle (i.e. adding an elite returner like Harvin) than it is to shift everyone year in year out (i.e. 4 punters in the past 2 years, coaching change, injuries).
Anyways, that’s just my semi-informed opinion, I’d also be interested to see what factors I didn’t consider. It’d be nice if we could get a Vikes fan in here with more familiarity with their unit.
by sicklebeat on Dec 1, 2009 9:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the FanPost
And I decided to post it on the front page.
The special teams are an area where the Packers could get a lot of bang for the buck, but I’m not counting on it. It isn’t like one area is struggling, they aren’t doing anything right. Mediocre yardage from Kapinos and Crosby, Crosby missing FGs, they can’t cover punts and kicks, or no return game (we miss you KR Will Blackmon!). Unfortunately McCarthy said the coverage units “have played a very high level” so I don’t know what special teams unit he’s watching. Hopefully he didn’t mean “high” like Cheech and Chong “high”. I don’t see a fix this year.
Harvin has been great, exceptional for a rookie, not just as a receiver but on returns too. But all hail Sydney Rice. He’s the No. 1 WR according to Football Outsiders, and remember, they got nothing from him last season as he battled injuries. And the Vikings got somewhat lucky here. They might not have drafted Harvin, or used Rice as anything except a No. 3 receiver, if they had won the T.J. Houshmandzadeh sweepstakes.
by Brandon on Dec 1, 2009 11:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention that they may not have had the money to afford Favre if they gave Housh his monster deal. It was really a lucky break losing out in the Housh lottery for them!
by TrevorR on Dec 2, 2009 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am no expert
but this is what I have noticed. McChicken calling for #1 50 + yard field goals in at least 3-4 games (early or late) where clearly it is a punt situation. Crosby did fine last year. So that is a play calling issue giving other teams really good field position. #2 we have not had a good punter since well………. for a decade since Craig. #3 Guy’s are desperate and greedy to make plays, they all want to be superstars and make big impact hits rather that just tackle the guys legs and get him down. There comes a time where the young guy’s got to realize they are not all that and just make a fricken leg tackle instead of an arm tackle and trying to be a superstar———— this is where I think coaching comes in.
by turd on Dec 2, 2009 10:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Mason Crosby
While I know he has struggled with field goals ranging from 50+ yards, we cannot give up on him yet. If we have a chance to hit a 54 yard field goal, I’d still have Crosby kick it instead of punting it. Let Crosby dig himself out of his funk. If you choose to punt the ball in these situations, you are clearly indicating that you are giving up on Crosby and his confidence will take a hit. Crosby is a young kicker, so lets not give up on him. He is capable of hitting these field goals from this distance, he just needs to work on his accuracy. That’s not an easy task. Our kicking and punting coverage has been the worst part of our Special Teams clearly because they are consistently putting our defense in a bad situation and changing the momentum of the game, which affects our offense. The coverage needs to be figured out if we want to make the playoffs or even make a deep run in the playoffs. Our penalties needs to be address as well.
by Jabooty on Dec 2, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby
I’m more concerned about his kickoffs. They just don’t seem traveling as far. He’ll miss a few FGs, all kickers do.
by Brandon on Dec 2, 2009 11:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Kickoffs
I was very concerned with this as well but I don’t think his shorter kicks are necessarily his fault. Against the Cowboys at home, in freezing cold weather I saw him boom 2 into the endzone. But then against the Lions, in a warm weather dome, he only kicked it to like the 10 yard line….And I’m pretty sure it’s because we’re having him kick the ball directionally as opposed to just letting him boom the ball as hard and far as he can.
Our kick off coverage has been spotty, so I think we have been having him kick the ball into either the left or right hand corner. Obviously this effects the distance on his kicks, and also isn’t the easiest thing to do. While directional kicks can be good to use when your kicker doesn’t have the strongest leg and your coverage is poor, Crosby has maybe the strongest leg in the league.
I think it’be smarter for us to just have him kick it as far as he can rather then directional kicking.
by packallday555 on Dec 3, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Strongest leg?
not a chance. Janikowski wins that by a country mile. Crosby got that reputation in college but he went to school in Colorado where the air is a little thinner. I don’t know if he’s even in the top 5 for strongest leg.
by TrevorR on Dec 3, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot about Janikowski but I think he easily is top 5 for strongest leg. Did you see the 60 yard he clanged about half up the cross bar? Every one of his field goals look like they could be good from 55+, he just doesn’t have his accuracy down.
by packallday555 on Dec 3, 2009 3:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby
I think part of Crosby’s problems are the holds are inconsistent. I don’t know this for sure, but consider…
We all remember how anal Longwell was in regards to how the ball had to be held exactly right or he couldn’t kick very well… Crosby on the other hand, has said the hold doesn’t matter to him. I think it DOES matter… Not that I want the crybaby Longwell back, but if Crosby were a little more emphatic about how he wants the ball held it would create better consistency.
Like I said, I don’ know this to be the case, just putting two and two together from things I have heard/read… Maybe if the holds were more consistent or Crosby was a little more particular about how he likes it, it would lead to more consistency. Especially on long FG that have much smaller margin for error!
by Strohman on Dec 3, 2009 8:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I’d take Longwell back…he’s one of the best in the league.
by TrevorR on Dec 4, 2009 8:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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