Preview: Green Bay Packers at Bears
by Brandon on Dec 11, 2009 7:00 AM CST
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintDespite the Bears 5-7 record, it might be easy to overlook this game since they just ended a 4 game losing streak with a close win over the 1-11 Rams, and they haven't beaten a team with a winning record this season. They did beat the Steelers in week 2, but both the Steelers and Bears have fallen on recent hard times (Steelers have lost their last 5 games, and Bears have lost 4 of their last 5). Here's the Sports Network's Packers vs Bears preview.
Here are the official NFL rankings, based on yardage, from NFL.com:
| Team | Run Offense | Pass Offense | Run Defense | Pass Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 13 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Bears | 31 | 16 | 25 | 9 |
Taking a closer look, the official stats by yardage are making the Bears pass offense and pass defense look better than they really are. While the pass offense is moving the ball, QB Jay Cutler is also turning it over, and he has a league leading 20 INTs. Their pass defense has only given up 4 pass plays over 40 yards (tied for 6th best), but they've given up 21 TD passes (tied for 6th worst) and only grabbed 11 INTs. That doesn't make them bad, just average, and they're currently ranked No. 16 overall by Football Outsiders.
RB Ryan Grant vs. the Bears' run defense. His last two games have been forgettable, but that doesn't mean the Bears can stop him. In recent games, the Eagles RB LeSean McCoy had his best game as a pro (99 yards and 1 TD), and RB Steven Jackson ran for 112 yards despite QB Kyle Boller offering nothing to fear from the Rams passing game. They did hold RB Adrian Peterson to 85 yards (3.4 yards/carry) two weeks ago, but only because they put everything into stopping the running game, and the Vikings rolled for 378 yards and 3 TDs through the air. In the cold weather, the Bears might do what the Ravens did last Monday night: keep the safeties in tight and make QB Aaron Rodgers throw down the field, so I'm not expecting a huge game from Grant.
Rodgers vs. the Bears' pass defense. They shut down Boller last week at home, but that was just Kyle Boller. The last time they faced a good QB at home was three weeks ago, when QB Donovan McNabb went for 244 yards, 1 TD, and a QB rating of 101.6 against them. Rodgers just had 263 yards and 3 TDs against the better Ravens pass defense in the cold, so he should be productive again this week.
RB Matt Forte vs. the Packers' run defense. They were great against RB Ray Rice last week, so Forte isn't a bigger challenge. While Rice is ranked by Football Outsiders as one of the best RB this season, Forte is ranked as one of the worst. RB Kahlil Bell had 11 carries last week, but still over 60% of his career yardage has come from one 72 yard run he had against the Eagles. Forte has averaged only 3.4 yards/carry this season, and only had 1 game when he had over 10 carries and averaged over 4 yards/carry. He remains a greater threat as a receiver than as a runner. Despite the numerous injuries on the Packers' defensive line, they should have no trouble limiting the Bears' running attack.
QB Jay Cutler vs. the Packers' pass defense. Cutler had 4 INTs in their first meeting and he hasn't been much better since. LT Orlando Pace is not likely to play, but the 7 time Pro Bowl LT appears to be at the end of the road anyway. The Packers did a great job shutting down Ravens' QB Joe Flacco last week, and the Ravens' best passing play was to try and draw a flag on CB Tramon Williams. That could work again this week, but penalties alone aren't going to win it for the Bears.
Special teams and penalties. While the Packers have an advantage in nearly every other area, here's where the Bears can make it a close game. According to TeamRankings.com, the Bears are 5th worst with 54.3 penalty yards per game, but the Packers are in a league of their own (though the Ravens aren't far behind) with 75.4 penalty yards per game. The Packers special teams continue to be the worst in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders, while the Bears are one of the best. WR Devin Hester isn't the most dangerous punt returner this season, but rookie WR Johnny Knox might be the best kick returner.
If the Bears have a strong return game, and can force a couple turnovers, then this one could be close. But the Packers have taken good care of the ball this season, and should be able to win in Chicago for the first time since 2006. Packers 27, Bears 17.
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Packers should win this one by more than just 10 points,
the Bear’s O-line is going to get it handed to them, Beakman in particular.
Green and Gold / Black and White
It's still a rivalry game
Anything can happen in these games, which is scary. It can take just a play or two before a Jay Cutler or Matt Forte gets the confidence they need and perform the way they are capable. My big thing is that when any of our skill guys have the ball and they happen to be running at Charles Tillman, they need to put two hands on the ball. Tillman strips ball carriers with the best of them and he has victimized us many times before in ideal situation. A hard, slick ball just makes it easier for him.
"You just don't know understand how frustrating this is"- Kevin Borseth
Good point
And couldn’t agree more on Tillman. He punches the ball out of people hands better then any other player in the NFL. He got Jones twice in our 07’ season at home, and was a large part of why they were able to beat us.
by packallday555 on Dec 11, 2009 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
except Woodson of course
See, this is what happens when the Sox bunt.
Discord is sown. Brother fights brother. Misunderstandings abound.
-TAEG
by blackoutsox on Dec 12, 2009 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
I think he’s even better then Woodson at it.
by packallday555 on Dec 12, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
Way better I'd say
but I think Woodson is more selective with it also. When you run into Tillman, you know he’s punching away at it.
"You just don't know understand how frustrating this is"- Kevin Borseth
Hester Rumors
There are rumors out there that he MIGHT miss the game on Sunday…
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicagobears/post/_/id/4663760/hesters-absence-could-cause-bears-problems
Over at WCG, they are saying he is "unlikely to play" on Sunday.
Makes me wonder what exactly will happen if he can’t play. That takes away a big threat in the special teams and passing game.
Bound for New York City: January 6-9! Can't wait!
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 11, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
I saw that and got a BIG smile on my face…makes me a little less scared for our ST unit. Not totally unscared but less scared!! Definitely hurts their passing game as his speed might have been a challenge.
I'm on WCG ... let me see an update about that.
Bound for New York City: January 6-9! Can't wait!
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 11, 2009 10:58 PM CST up reply actions
Just asked over at WCG.
I’ll let you know if I get any replies. I had said I would stay away from WCG because I’m a Packers fan, but this time, it was required as they may know more than me.
Bound for New York City: January 6-9! Can't wait!
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 11, 2009 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
Passing game yes that's a big loss
but are the Bears still trotting out Daniel Manning for returns. Hester has been more of a dancer and Knox is a mix, but Manning is pure balls to the walls and hits the holes harder than Knox or Hester. With how our special teams has been playing, they can’t afford to stray from their lanes and hit their targets.
"You just don't know understand how frustrating this is"- Kevin Borseth
You're being too cautious with that score prediction
McCarthy’s not happy about the way games have gone against the Bears the past couple years and if he can run up the score against their abysmal defense he will.
Packers should win this game. They are a bit underrated, IMO. If it were not for my Vikes they’d be 8-2 right now.
by mcrow on Dec 11, 2009 3:17 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
as a bears fan
the line for this game seems to be begging bettors to go big with the pack. i know the bears have squeaked out wins against the pack the last two years at soldier field but outside of playing this game on madden it seems like a huge stretch to imagine the same thing happening a third consecutive year. unless the run game magically produces something better than a wet unpolished turd (not likely) on sunday, da bears are going to have to generate some crazy st plays along with the usual tillman punchouts to stay competitive.
no hester is also a bummer, he seems like he is getting to the above-average level at wr lately
That's the impression I got, too.
Why a line of only -3.5 with the Packers?
They have won four straight games, defeating Dallas and Baltimore in the process, and have the #1 defense in the NFL in terms of yards given up. The Bears, meanwhile, have lost six of their last eight. Included in that freefall are losses of 45-10, 41-21, and 36-10. The Bears won three of their first four games, but the only loss in that stretch was at Lambeau Field against the Packers.
And certainly, the Packers are playing better now than they were even then.
Bound for New York City: January 6-9! Can't wait!
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Dec 11, 2009 10:53 PM CST up reply actions
I think just because our division games with them are always so close, especially the ones at Soldier Field. They’ve lost big a few times but I wouldn’t overlook them. Cutler has the talent and ability to beat us if we make mistakes.
by packallday555 on Dec 12, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
McCarthy has liked to establish the run against the Bears in recent years
which hasn’t always worked and leaves points on the field. Cutler had a god awful game against the Packers and gave us the ball 4 times and it still took a deep play in the 4th quarter to squeak by. That was a home game too for the Packers. 3.5 seems about right when you factor in the free 3 for the home team and everything else said on this board.
"You just don't know understand how frustrating this is"- Kevin Borseth
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