Stopping The Steelers On Third Down
by Brandon on Dec 16, 2009 7:00 AM CST
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
10 comments
From Tom Pelissero's tape review, about the Green Bay Packers new Psycho defense (1 lineman, 5 LBs, 5 DBs):
In all, DC Dom Capers ran "psycho" six times, all on third down, and the Bears converted only one — a 19-yard strike from Cutler to WR Devin Aromashodu a tick before a trio including Jenkins got home.
DE Cullen Jenkins was the one remaining lineman, and he was the most effective player in the Psycho package. But, as Football Outsiders pointed out, QB Jay Cutler was usually in a bind on 3rd down because of their struggles on 1st and 2nd down:
As a sign of how effective Matt Forte and the Bears' offensive line were on Sunday, here's the number of yards Cutler had to pick up to convert on third down, listed chronologically: 21, 8, 18, 9, 12, 1, 5, 10, 22, 11. That's an average of 11.7 yards to go; the average quarterback needs to gain an average of 7.7 yards on third down to get a new set to work with.
Overall the Bears were 5 of 13 on 3rd down, so they were a respectable 4 of 7 on 3rd down when the Packers were not in the Psycho package. That might be an indication that the Packers are not good on 3rd down in a base package, or that they only used the Psycho package on 3rd and very long. The Packers' opponents have only converted 34.7% of their 3rd down chances this season, which is currently 6th best in the NFL.
For the season, the Steelers are about league average on 3rd down, converting 38.1% of the time, but 3rd down was a disaster for them last week against the Browns. Again, from Football Outsiders:
How do you score six points in 60 minutes against the Browns? Drop back 11 times on third down and convert exactly one of them. Roethlisberger even failed to complete a pass on the first nine of those attempts, taking five sacks and throwing four incompletions.
I thought that maybe the Steelers were putting themselves into a lot of 3rd and long situations, but in the first half against against the Browns, the Steelers failed to convert on 3rd and 1, 3, 1, 7, 5, and 19. I didn't even look at the second half because the first half showed that they had a lot of 3rd and short opportunities on which they failed to pick up a 1st down.
John Harris of the Tribune-Review points out that the Steelers were able to convert on 3rd down when they ran the ball, but on their current 5 game losing streak, they have only converted on 3rd down between 20% to 38% of the time. So that's converting only 28% of their 3rd down chances over their last 5 games.
There seems to be a lot going wrong for the Steelers on offense at the moment.
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3rd and short...
Shotgun, 5 WR’s or 4 WR’s and a TE. Wait… wait …wait… sack. Everytime. That was our story versus the Browns on 3rd down.
We run that “psycho” package too. It’s effective, and unorthodox. Nobody practice against that, and no one is ready for it when it comes in. Is that a Capers’ thing, or was that something Kevin Greene stole from us and gave to you? (haha)
'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin
"Psycho" = Nickel 1-5-5 Prowl
Not original by him at all, but a great idea by Capers to deploy this with all the talent we have LB (and the banged-up state of our D-line).
Was especially cool to see it in a Packers game becuase this formation has been in a few Madden playbooks for a couple of years now. Its good at concealing from which LBs the rush is going to come from, that’s for sure.
oh, so piece of cake! If Cleveland can stop em…………. Just like how the Packers were going to stomp down the winless Tampa team. Really? I think the “analysis” needs to be finished.
However, despite the recent Steelers struggles and the Packers winning streak, Roethlisberger is not Cutler. The Steelers have WRs, the Bears don’t. The Steelers are at home and their backs are against the wall. Never look at matchups and stats from the past week to predict what will happen the next. Two huge factors in Pittsburghs problems last week were a gimpy Hines Ward and the brutal weather.
None of them are Cake
You nailed it with the TB loss. Look at the Cards vs Minnesota then SF, you can never tell from week to week which teams will be prepared and execute well, not to mention lucky.
This post is simply identifying some comparisons using season stats and anecdotes from last weekend’s games to generate some optimism among the fans. GB fans—it is a Packers fan site, by the way.
I hope it’ll be a good game between these two better-than-most teams. I don’t think I’ll be disappointed.
Go Pack!
Um?
He wasn’t trying to say we’re going to blow them out and absolutely shut them down on defense..He was simply pointing out that the Steelers have struggled on 3rd downs, and we have been pretty good defensively on 3rd downs.
I don’t think anyone thinks playing the Steelers will be like playing the Bears whatsoever. Ward and Holmes are head and shoulders above Knox and Aromashadu. Of course the weather had an effect on the Steeler’s 3rd down woes against the Browns, and I guess I don’t know for sure but I don’t necessarily think the weather will be particulary nice this coming Sunday either.
by packallday555 on Dec 16, 2009 2:17 PM CST up reply actions
On the 5 game losing streak we are 19 for 67 on 3rd down conversions. That is a conversion rate of 28.4%. If you didn’t already know, that is really bad. For the year, only two teams have a lower 3rd down conversion , Buffalo (25.4) and KC (25.9). On our 5 game winning streak we were 26 for 55, 47.3. There seems to be some correlation between converting on 3rd down and winning (duh!). On the year our conversion rate is 38.1% (17th).
-My Fanpost
Our 3rd down conversions have been pretty awful in every game in the losing streak. I contribute a lot of that poor conversion % to terrible play calling by BA. 3rd and short and he lines up 4 or 5 wide with no one in the backfield. That is more transparent than glass. I don’t foresee it getting any better this week.
The Hell that Tomlin & the Steelers have unleashed on me this December is indescribable.
Bottom Line Is That Pittsburgh Is Going To Score
The Pack can limit it, and they’re definitely one of the best in the league at doing so, but the main concern for me is getting some bigger plays from Jones and Jennings and hopefully Grant can pick up some decent carries, too. Best way to combat Steelers offense is keeping them off the field and not letting them get a rhythm.
"Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Vince Lombardi
maybe tomlin saw
arogs third down qb rating and said ‘maybe they have something there’. teams dont expect a pass on third down unless its long, obviously, but maybe they do when you run out four WRs.
"I feel like I need to issue a formal apology to the Green Bay Packer defense..."'
Trent Dilfer, 12/07/09
by PackaCracka on Dec 16, 2009 1:35 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Perhaps giving our defense a nickname is a little premature
ala Blitzburgh, The Steel Curtain, the Orange Crush. But my preliminary suggestion is the psycho killer defense. We obviously now have the Psycho defensive package, but it also references the Talking Heads song and everybody can see that Dvid Byrne and TT have a more than passing resemblance.
So I’m gonna throw ‘Psycho killer defense’ in the nickname pot.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
naming the defense
You can’t really name a defense until they develop a personality and the Packers have not played consistently enough in one area to really merit a nickname. However the overall team defense were if one area drops off another one picks up the slack seems to be there strength. It just seems that when you have to name a defense they always just get to full of themselves and they end up blowing up. I am from the old school that says let the play speak for itself.
packer wannabe http://maxsportsplus.com
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