The Emergence Of Aaron Rodgers
In his 5th NFL season, Aaron Rodgers has made improvements to critical parts of his game, and that is the big difference for the turnaround from a 6-10 season in the 2008 campaign. He's cracked the record books - becoming the first NFL player to pass for 4,000+ yards in his first two seasons as a starter. He currently stands at 4th in the NFL in passing efficiency, just ahead of Peyton Manning (yes, that's right, here's the link). So where has Rodgers improved drastically from his rookie season to this season?
- Second Half: In 2008, there was a notable difference in Rodgers' passing stats from the first to the second half. His passer rating in the first half was 100.5, but in the second half it dipped to 87.0. In 2009, his passer rating in the first half is still a respectable 103.8, but his second half rating has increased to 100.8. Pretty impressive, as the Packers struggled at times in the second half last season, but Rodgers has helped improve the Packers in that respect this season. It is particularly noticeable in the 4th quarter, especially when the score margin was less than 7 points. In these situations, Rodgers threw 4 picks in 2008, versus just 1 in 2009. Taking care of the ball in crunch time has been a big improvement in Rodgers' game this season. Why is this important? Because, on average, a 4th quarter interception will cost your team about 15-20% off your chance of winning the game (h/t Advanced NFL Stats).
- Fatigue/Conditioning: Rodgers' stats after his first 30 pass attempts in 2008 games were not terribly impressive. He completed 58.9% of his passes with 3 TDs to 3 INTs. His passer rating was only 79.5. However, in 2009 he has improved to complete nearly 64% of passes in such situations and throw 6 TDs to 1 INT. His passer rating was 101.1. Is it possible Rodgers just wore down at the end of games last year; that when the team relied on him to shoulder the load, he started making bad decisions late in the games?
- Third Down: You may have heard about Aaron's incredible 3rd down passing stats. I'm sure nobody wants to see the Packers consistently getting held to third downs, but nobody in the league has been a more reliable passer on third down this season than Aaron Rodgers. He actually wasn't bad in these situations in 2008 (64%, 14 TD, 5 INT, 8.24 yds/comp, 105.8 rating), but he's been almost perfect on 3rd down this season. He's completing 67.8% of his passes for an average of 11.01 yards per completion. He has not thrown a pick on third down, but has thrown 14 touchdowns! His passer rating is an unbelievable 135.1.
- Come From Behind: Perhaps it's a testament to Aaron's increasing leadership, but the stats bear this out - he has been much better this season when the Packers are trailing. 10 interceptions last year in such situations killed the Packers in a lot of close games. This season? He's only thrown 1 interception in such situations. His passer rating has improved 24.1 points - from 88.9 to 112.1. In fact, his passer rating this season has been better when the Packers are trailing than when they are ahead .
Of course, a big part of the Packers' recent success has been the consistency of the offensive line increasing (regular starters), and a decreasing sack rate.
The graph to the right shows that there is a clear decreasing trend in Aaron Rodgers' passer rating this season when the number of sacks have increased.
Over the first half of the season (8 games) Rodgers was sacked an average of 4.6 times per game. Consequently, the Packers were a dismal 4-4.
Since the Packers have gone 6-1 over their last 7 games, the sack rate has decreased to 1.8 per game.
Even with relatively poor pass protection, averaged over the entire season, Rodgers has been one of the elite passers in the league. Perhaps this is something Ted Thompson should take note of - get some elite offensive linemen in the draft or through free agency. If Rodgers has time, he has proven he can absolutely pick a defense apart.
Football Outsiders still ranks the Packers as the 3rd worst pass protection unit in the NFL. This is somewhat surprising given their recent improvements, and that they are 9th in the league in adjusted line yards, a run blocking metric. The Packers are the only team that has clinched a playoff berth in the top 10 worst pass protection units.
Again, imagine how good Rodgers could be with an elite offensive line - scary, right? Still, one has to give credit where credit is due - and the increasing stability on the offensive line has helped improve the sack rates. Encouraging sign: the Packers held one of the best pass rushing defenses at bay recently - the Steelers (4th best, 1 sack allowed).
Keeping Aaron healthy and protected going into the playoffs will be a major key to the Packers success. The defense is generally a known commodity. We need the offensive line to show up and play well.
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16 comments
Comments
Great post man!
He is quickly becoming an elite NFL Qb, and I couldn’t be happier that he is going to be our Qb for the next 10+ years (hopefully).
Thinking about what he could do with a good o-line is downright scary. That would also likely mean we would have a bit of a running game to compliment our passing game, which obviously would help us out a ton. Looking at what our offense has done with next to no run game and a mediocore o-line at best (for only half the season) I am praying to God TT goes out and gets a couple of big time o-linemen in the offseason.
by packallday555 on Dec 29, 2009 12:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
Great job!!
So, here's some advice I wish I woulda got when I was your age: Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by snibbodmot on Dec 30, 2009 6:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Great post. Rec'd
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
by Michael M on Dec 29, 2009 1:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I also
like the fact that this is his second season starting and his second consecutive season throwing for over 4000 yards. I think Rodgers is the only QB for throw for over 4000 yards in his first 2 years as a starting QB.
by turd on Dec 29, 2009 2:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
indeed he is
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
by Michael M on Dec 29, 2009 6:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow…very good post. Thanks for breaking that down. He’s really exceeding all the expectations I had for him. I’ll be the first to admit that coming out of the draft I was TOTALLY wrong on him. I had him pegged as Kyle Boller pt 2 and he’s turning out to be nothing like him.
How much of that goes to the coaching? I know MM was known for being a good coach for QB’s which may have helped him get the job (cause I was SHOCKED when he did)?
by TrevorR on Dec 29, 2009 8:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the post
The first player in history to crack four thousand yards in first two years as a starter? Thats auto-stud-status in my book.
Watching the Steelers highlights, who blitzed all day, and the Seahawks highlights, who didn’t blitz hardly at all, you can see the Packers o-line calling out all kinds of assignments. Sliding protection, stretching, they were picking up blitz assignments very well. With the return of Tauscher’s elite play, coupled with how no human can cover J. Finley, this team has a chance to go all the way.
Seahawks didn’t blitz a lot and the Packers did. Big difference in strategy, and outcomes, obviously.
"I don't know how a guy gets single covered in that situation when you're dropping eight men," Tony Dungy, 12/20/09
by PackaCracka on Dec 29, 2009 9:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Clifton and Tauscher returning
has been integral to this line turning the corner, and in the packers as a whole turning it this year after the tampa bay game. They were two of the best for a while, but even just being average allows this offense to function. Man can you tell the difference.
The time for reckoning has come, and we already have the answer
by Vreeland2 on Dec 29, 2009 9:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The whole third down thing is really incredible.
I remember watching the steelers game and on a certain 3rd and 16 I was actually convinced he would convert it… and he did.
by levnclf on Dec 29, 2009 10:08 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Haha 3rd and 18 actually :)
I had a feeling he was going to convert as well!
by packallday555 on Dec 29, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome post!
Thanks for dishing out the info ;^)
Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb
by verno329 on Dec 29, 2009 1:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
This what I come here for!...
…good stuff, post more!
by PackFaninFL on Dec 29, 2009 10:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Stud
I was sickened by the prejudicial attacks on Rodgers last year, as someone who could not win a game when needed (as a first year starter). In reality, most of those games were lost on silly big-plays given up on the D-side of the team. Quick judging attacks on anyone are almost always wrong. I am glad he has been able to shut up people up and actually win over some of those who were unable to let go of their favorite waffle maker.
His quality of play has actually trumped the disappointment of losing twice to Minny this year. The ultimate (stress-laden) check-mate would be beating the Minny-mice in the playoffs this year.
The kid and his throwing-precision at least matches the best I have seen in 40 years of watching football. I pray he is able to stay healthy and keep growing. Keep in mind, he is still young, learning, and growing as a player.
Go Pack!
by docg on Dec 31, 2009 1:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I never could understand why the Packers were so quick to dump Brett favre until seeing this cat play
Aaron rodgers. I never knew he was that good
grammer geeks you make me sick
by angryandy on Jan 3, 2010 3:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
And you wondered???
I’ll state first that I am not a Ted fan…I think he’s very stupid for not going after Free agents. But, you do have to give him props for bringing in the man,
Personally, I thank Brett Favre for all he did while a Packer, but don’t come into the Frozen Tundra and expect a warm, welcome home, type welcome….you’re the enemy now…Sorry. Retire first, love second.
I grew VERY tired of Brett and all the foolishness….“I’m retired…no I’m not…yes, I am”…Good riddens. The Packers needed, deserved, and got a good replacement for Brett….as we sought the next Brett Favre. Who knew that we’d already found an excellent replacement? I didn’t. I thought he’d be ok. But, I didn’t expect another coming of Steve Young! Let’s face it…Brett Favre…Joe Montana…Steve Young….Aaron Rodgers…Oh, those two situations dovetail so nicely, don’t they? The difference is that Joe Montana handled his business much better than Brett ever could, period.
So, where does all that mess leave us? Can the Pack beat the birdies again this year, or is the third time the charm for them? We’ll see. Me? I’ll be sitting at home with a Cheese Curd in one hand and a beer in the other. After all, any time is a good time for cheese curds, and it’s always beer thirty somewhere in the world. After all, I’ll be watching my favorite football team, and the best quarterback in the NFL.
by DW29a on Jan 4, 2010 10:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I was in the same shoes as you…I honestly was waiting for Rodgers to fail. I wanted to see him have the chance though. I was ready for the Favre drama to be done and I wanted to see what this Rodgers kid had in him…and if he would be the guy I’d cheer for throughout my 30s. I am happy with how things have turned out. I don’t love TT, but I don’t hate him. He makes some BAD decisions but also some GREAT ones. I think he’s a top 10-15 GM at the worst…
by TrevorR on Jan 4, 2010 1:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs




















