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From Football Outsiders: The Packers Are Number One

According to the Football Outsiders week 16 DVOA ratings, the Green Bay Packers are ranked No. 1 by weighted DVOA, which is "adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important." What it means is that the Packers are hot:

If you look at how the NFC teams have played in recent weeks, it's pretty simple: Philadelphia, Dallas, and Green Bay are hot. New Orleans and Minnesota are not. Arizona isn't really trending one way or the other. (Their weighted DVOA is higher than overall, but they've had a couple of poor games recently.) However, as Bill Barnwell pointed out in Quick Reads, late-season momentum in the last couple years hasn't meant a tinker's damn.

They are still dragged down by their awful special teams play, which remains the worst in the league by a comfortable margin.

Speaking of Bill Barnwell and Quick Reads, here's what he said about QB Aaron Rodgers (No. 11 QB last week) and RB Brandon Jackson (No. 4 RB) :

With the Seahawks handing the Packers oodles of rushing yards and short fields, Rodgers really only had to hand the ball off and offer the occasional play action pass up to collect his paycheck. Only four of his completions were for fewer than ten yards, and he had completions of 16, 24, 28, 38 (twice) and 40 yards...

After being expected to start at points during the 2007 preseason, Jackson's faded into oblivion with the arrival and ascension of Ryan Grant. With the Packers choosing to rest Grant in a blowout, though, Jackson showed why the Packers liked him. Like many of their receivers, Jackson's agile and shows excellent vision once he has the ball in his hands; he made nice cutbacks on several plays, including his first touchdown run. While the carries given to Ahman Green were a nice thank you for services rendered (or a reminder of how bad the first Green trade from Seattle was for the Seahawks), Jackson will be first in line if Grant goes down during the playoffs.

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One of the best

Packer teams I’ve personally ever witnessed. I think we miss Tracy White oh so badly, though.

Why are the Vikings so suspect against screens? Is it because of their line-backer issues? Or is it because, and I’ve thought this since Grant sliced up Pat and Kevin so badly last year, that the Williams Wall is extremely over-rated?

"I don't know how a guy gets single covered in that situation when you're dropping eight men," Tony Dungy, 12/20/09

by PackaCracka on Dec 30, 2009 9:59 AM CST reply actions  

This team reminds me alot of the team that lost in Philly on the OT interception with how they have improved every single week. The biggest difference is a better coaching staff and a couple of big play makers on defense.

by Dogg Pound on Dec 30, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

4th and 26?

Green and Gold / Black and White

by OznCoop on Dec 30, 2009 12:06 PM CST up reply actions  

in 03

Favre threw 21 picks that year. Could it be that an upgrade in QB is a bigger difference?

They had ball hawks all around on defense that year, even Barnett had 3 INTs.

"I don't know how a guy gets single covered in that situation when you're dropping eight men," Tony Dungy, 12/20/09

by PackaCracka on Dec 30, 2009 1:03 PM CST up reply actions  

D-line is coached to get upfield

and get after the quarterback. Jared Allen and Ray Edwards play pass on just about every snap, and if you don’t have linebackers that can pursue laterally and tackle, you can be in a jam,

Minnesota has been better this year than in years past, but the EJ Henderson injury really, really hurt this defense. He was the guy that would come in and finish the play, and Jasper Brinkley isn’t near his level. Ben Leber is a solid tackler and good downfield pass defender, but he loses more one on one battles in open space than he should. Chad Greenway is a solid tackler and wins his one on one battles, but is weaker on downfield pass coverage. They both pursue laterally very well, and can usually corral a guy until help arrives (Henderson). But if an offense can get a running back in the void left by Allen/Edwards, and Leber or Greenway is late, offenses really have an opportunity for a big play.

"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."

--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre

by Ted Glover on Dec 30, 2009 5:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice analysis on them!

by TrevorR on Dec 30, 2009 5:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks

"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."

--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre

by Ted Glover on Dec 30, 2009 5:18 PM CST up reply actions  

I knew it!

Chad Greenway is a solid tackler and wins his one on one battles, but is weaker on downfield pass coverage

Dude really did turn out to be the poor man’s AJ Hawk.

by vitaminx on Dec 31, 2009 8:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Haha..

I’m not sure I’d go that far. Hawk can’t really cover at all, and he isn’t as good as Greenway in 1-on-1 opportunities.

by packallday555 on Dec 31, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Because their d-line gets up field so fast. Usually when a screen is disrupted or slown down it’s done so by a d-line who is able to sniff it out.

by packallday555 on Dec 31, 2009 2:47 PM CST up reply actions  

BREAKING NEWS:

Mike Leach Fired from Texas Tech.

Green and Gold / Black and White

by OznCoop on Dec 30, 2009 12:46 PM CST reply actions  

I don't think he minds that much,

he’ll get a bug buyout settlement, and he wanted out of Lubbock anyway. He’s just gonna have to realize that passing offense works in the Big 12 and not many other places.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 30, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

thanks, am now.

Green and Gold / Black and White

by OznCoop on Dec 30, 2009 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

this guy,

Green and Gold / Black and White

by OznCoop on Dec 30, 2009 3:58 PM CST up reply actions  

and not this guy.

Green and Gold / Black and White

by OznCoop on Dec 30, 2009 3:59 PM CST up reply actions  

hey whens the final jersey contest standings goin up?

Favre 4 Ever
I Believe In Chris Drury

by Plusch on Dec 30, 2009 9:19 PM CST reply actions  

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