Preview: Ravens at Green Bay Packers

by Brandon on Dec 4, 2009 7:00 AM CST in Green Bay Packers Analysis Comment 29 comments

This is going to be a good game. On paper, the Green Bay Packers seem to be the better team, but it's not a huge advantage. The Packers are favored by 3, but it's probably a pick if this were played on a neutral site. Every play is going to count, and any missed opportunity might be the reason someone loses.

The official team rankings (based on yardage) from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	11	6	4	6
Ravens	14	13	6	12

RB Ryan Grant vs. the Ravens run D. Opposing running backs are only averaging 3.5 yards/carry against the Ravens. While this makes it appear that the Ravens have the advantage, it's been hard to predict how Grant will play lately. The offensive line was great at opening running lanes against the 49ers excellent run defense, but they didn't help him much against the Lions when he only had 3.1 yards/carry. Also, the 49ers run a 3-4 defense, just as the Packers and Ravens do, so since the Packers see the 3-4 in practice, maybe that gives them some advantage against a 3-4 defense during a game.

QB Aaron Rodgers vs. the Ravens pass D. Based on the yardage rankings, this looks like a matchup that would favor Rodgers. But the Ravens have held opposing QBs to a rating of 79.0, with 12 TDs (12th fewest) and 12 INTs (7th most). Their pass defense is currently ranked No. 5 overall by Football Outsiders, which would be the best pass defense he's faced so far this season. Though they have lost both starting CB Fabian Washington (torn ACL) and star pass rusher LB Terrell Suggs (torn MCL) in recent weeks. Those injuries are similar to what the Packers have gone through, except LB Aaron Kampman is gone for the season and Suggs should return later this month. In their 2 games without Suggs, who has 3.5 of their 21 sacks on the season, the Ravens were without a sack against the Colts or Steelers, which should help the struggling o-line avoid any disaster. This is a tough matchup for Rodgers, but he's been good to outstanding in every game this season and I wouldn't bet against him.

RB Ray Rice vs. the Packers run D. The Ravens ran the ball a lot in 2008 (37 carries/game), but not nearly so much in 2009 (27.5 carries/game). But their yards/carry has actually gone up from 4.0 to 4.2, in large part to the outstanding season by Rice. I'll still pick the Packers great run defense to win this battle because they haven't struggled against an opponent since RB Cedric Benson's big game in week 2.

QB Joe Flacco vs. the Packers pass D. WR Derrick Mason and RB Ray Rice are having great seasons, and are the leaders in their passing game. Unfortunately they aren't getting much help from the rest of their receivers, though WR Mark Clayton had a great game against the Steelers last week. Football Outsiders has the Ravens pass offense ranked No. 12 overall, but the Packers pass D is ranked No. 3 by them. This looks like a matchup that would favor the Packers, but with two contrasting points. Flacco has a 90.2 QB rating with 13 TDs and 8 INTs, which is similar to QB Carson Palmer (86.7 rating, 15 TDs, 8 INTs) and he threw for 3 TDs against the Packers, in Lambeau, back in week 2. However, that was the first and only game started by SS Aaron Rouse, who was so bad he was released shortly after the game. If the forecast for snow holds up, that might throw all those stats out the window.

Special teams and penalties. Though Mike McCarthy won't admit the special teams have been a disaster in 2009, they've been a disaster. The Packers have been getting killed by hidden yards lost on sacks, special teams, and penalties all season. The sacks might not be a problem, as I noted above, the Ravens haven't had a sack in three weeks. The Ravens special teams have been generally good this season, and they recently signed K Billy Cundiff to have fix their only significant weakness: FG attempts. The Packers will lose at least some yards to the Ravens on special teams. Though the Packers have been awful with penalties this season (66.4 yards/game), the only team worse is the Ravens (66.6 yards/game). This has been an area that's killed the Packers this season, but the Ravens can only expect a slight bump from it.

If the snow turns this game into another HD Bowl (aka 2008 playoff win over the Seahawks) I've got no idea how it could turn out. Which ever team can control the line of scrimmage will win a snow game. Assuming there's no snow, this is still a game I expect the Packers to win. Packers 24, Ravens 17.

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Yep, sounds right

The Ravens aren’t perfect, but they seem to play tough every week. This will be an excellent measuring stick to see where the Pack is at.

by Curly Lambeau on Dec 4, 2009 1:08 PM CST reply actions

nice thoughts. if it’s a snow game i hope leron mcclaine is able to play. rice might be impossible to catch in snow. snow helps our weekness at db.

by raven on Dec 4, 2009 1:13 PM CST reply actions

Wrong

Actually snow hurts the DB more than any position! WR know where they are going and DB has to react very quickly to what the WR does. Putting them in an even more unfavorable situation. DB have to react more quickly than any position on the field, and thats next to impossible in the snow!

by Strohman on Dec 4, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions

completely agree!

by bizzle4 on Dec 4, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions

It will

be slippier and harder to react and make up for any mistakes,

by bizzle4 on Dec 4, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions

Actually the snow hurts a terrible Packer OL which in turns ups the pressure on the qb and hurts the passing game.

by ATXRaven on Dec 4, 2009 4:51 PM CST up reply actions

Well he is used to having pressure

Rodgers is under pressure 90% of the time so I dont think it would be a that much of a difference for the Packers

by bizzle4 on Dec 4, 2009 6:35 PM CST up reply actions

Completely true… but you have to keep that pressure up because Rodgers would be THAT much better if he ever had time to throw. I am just hoping that the rollouts that he is often forced into result in Reed picking two off. Rodgers is great, but he isn’t used to playing a safety on the level of Ed Reed. When you cut off half your field when you roll out, Ed Reed is going to break off his coverage and shrink the field that much more (Ideally).

This is in a perfect world of course. Which I live in until Sunday/Monday before game time when I turn to doom and gloom. This is going to be a great game and I think it is very winnable for either team… just going to come down to execution. We have lost so many close games (only loss that wasn’t extremely close was the 2nd Bungles game). Here’s to a good clean game.

Cheers.

by ATXRaven on Dec 4, 2009 8:02 PM CST up reply actions

Haha no again

Snow hurts the d-line and pass rushers more then the o-line. The o-line for the most part are stationary. Snow makes it harder on pass rushers because it limits the quickness of their moves.

by packallday555 on Dec 4, 2009 6:39 PM CST up reply actions

Bullshit

I played DE. Snow plays into the hands of the pass rushers who like to use swim moves and such – that gets the OL off balance. Yes, they move slower but it’s easier to club an lineman on snow and swim by him than shuffle to stay in front… snow hurts Bull Rushers where the snow affects both equally.

by ATXRaven on Dec 4, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions

you weren’t a pro were you?
I don’t buy that a guy who’s barely moving is going to be more affected than the guy who is trying to get traction to either go around him or through him. You argument makes NO sense. Regardless, pressure is nothing new to the team. The snow will also slow down the entire game some, all the players lose speed due to snow so I don’t see how that changes the game that much.

by TrevorR on Dec 4, 2009 11:32 PM CST up reply actions

IMO from experience

Thanks for joining us ATXRaven and raven, but packallday and TrevorR are more correct about this from my experiences.

I played both DE (like yourself) and TE and the snow hurts the secondary more because they have to naturally adjust quicker to stay tight on the routes and the receivers can use the slower surface to their benefit.

In regards to pass rushing, I don’t know if it negatively affects the o-line or the d-line more. They both have a sloppy surface to deal with in a short area and it evens itself out. I personally think the snow does benefit the o-line in run blocking though because they’re able to push down on the traction-less d-lineman. Just my personal thoughts from playing on both sides of the ball.

by GGGamer on Dec 5, 2009 1:44 AM CST up reply actions

Played OL

And snow definitely affects OTs more than speed rush DEs. OT doesn’t know where the DE is going. They can’t dig in and get a foothold. The can’t adjust their feet when the DE makes a move. If the DE slips his shoulder inside there is no riding him off the pocket, it’s over.

by Line Judge on Dec 5, 2009 8:51 AM CST up reply actions

But in that same respect

Speed rush DE’s are good because they make their moves quick. In the snow it’s harder to make quick cuts and harder to utilize spin moves.

I guess it must just be an opinion thing because Schlereth, from ESPN, said snow makes it easier on the OL. And when I played Qb, my o-line always told me it made it easier on them to play in the snow.

by packallday555 on Dec 5, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions

Bull rushers were easier

and speed rushers were tougher for me on a slippery surface. Blocking them is like trying to herd cats in any condition. On a dry surface you can drop back a step and wait for their move knowing you have the footing to react. On a slick surface I was coached to get a piece of them off the snap and feel which way they are going, then ride them off. That’s easier said than done when you are challenged like me.

by Line Judge on Dec 5, 2009 1:20 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed

Bull rushers are easier. Speed rushers are more like how we mentioned the secondary reacting to the receivers. The o-lineman have to react to the speed rush quickly.

So I guess I would say that dbacks are at more of a disadvantage, o-lineman are at more of disadvantage in pure pass pro, and d-lineman are at more of a disadvantage against the run.

by GGGamer on Dec 5, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions

And it can’t be no AGAIN if that post was my first ever on this site… just sayin’

by ATXRaven on Dec 4, 2009 7:58 PM CST up reply actions

I believe the no again

was to the original post by raven, after Strohman said no in the first reply :)

by bizzle4 on Dec 5, 2009 12:48 AM CST up reply actions

Ding ding

We have a winner!

by packallday555 on Dec 5, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions

That depends

I found that timing plays between QB and receivers are messed up in the snow giving the DB more time to adjust. Today, well over half of the passes in the NFL are timing routes. Plus how well anyone reacts in the snow is player specific. Some guys are more sure footed.

by Line Judge on Dec 5, 2009 8:54 AM CST up reply actions

Good article Brandon!!

by GBfan73 on Dec 4, 2009 2:42 PM CST reply actions

I was confident with a win until

I read some of the Packer articles from the last two days. The players sound cocky like they did after the Lions and Browns games in route to a loss to the Vikings at home. Pickett and Poppinga are saying the Packers are gonna show they’re tougher than the Ravens, and even though they’re considered a finesse team, they think they’re becoming the toughest team in the league. Saying the offensive line was just pushing the 49ers down the field. If the offensive line doesn’t think they need to get better, they’re in for some serious trouble.

This talk scares me cause it’s exactly how they sounded before losing a second time to the Vikings. I hope they’re right and I hope they do turn into the toughest team in the league but keep your mouths closed until you do it for a good stretch against some good opponents. They’re cockiness scares me right now. Hopefully they walk their talk on Monday.

by GGGamer on Dec 4, 2009 3:36 PM CST reply actions

Look

we lost that Vikings game, not because we were overconfident, but because they’re a better team than us, plain and simple. You should factor what the guys are saying midweek either with a grain of salt, or not at all.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 4, 2009 4:26 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly…they are a better team…all around and especially on special teams. I think this years packers are about like last year’s vikings. Maybe next year will be OUR year! :-)

by TrevorR on Dec 4, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions

I could agree with that

Last year Vikes were good but beatable by many teams. We are good but if we dont execute 100% perfect we will lose against good teams

by bizzle4 on Dec 5, 2009 12:50 AM CST up reply actions

packers will lose

I agree GGGamer, the players seem like they are in the playoffs now. Too confident.

Against Dallas the talk was about being up against the wall, have to win or else no chance of the playoffs.

Against SF, they were playing another team that was fighting for a playoff spot.

Now they see they are in 5th place and Ravens NEED a win to have any chance to make the playoffs.

Scary game from a psychology point a view.

As MM always says, the hardest part for a team is dealing with success.

Plus, everytime I pick the Packers to win they lose, so…

by Acme on Dec 5, 2009 10:20 AM CST up reply actions

Exactly my feelings

When they talk like they’re up against the wall and need to win, like you mentioned against Dallas, they usually come out and play well. When they sound overly confident, like heading into Tampa Bay and the Vikings games, they usually play bad.

Plus, everytime I pick the Packers to win they lose, so…

Same here. I hate it lol. I was very confident about the 49ers game though and they proved me right so we will see.

by GGGamer on Dec 5, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-packers-thompsoninjured&prov=ap&type=lgns

Sounds like a setback for Thompson…I know a lot of people in here are high on his potential. Hopefully its not anything too serious.

by TrevorR on Dec 4, 2009 3:45 PM CST reply actions

Serious

ANY neck injury is SERIOUS!!! The fact that it seems to be recurring makes it likely he has a congenital condition, much like Terrence Murphy had that ended his too short career. I hope thats not the case…

Hopefully, they find a solution to this problem and Thompson can go on to a long successful career.

by Strohman on Dec 5, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions