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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

The Day After: Packers Defeat Ravens

Mitchell had a great extended recap of the Green Bay Packers' win over the RavensBut of all people, how can he miss a Football Outsiders Packer related Admiral Ackbar reference? I guess a lack of sleep can break even the best of NFL writers. Speaking of a lack of sleep, I'm beat after traveling back from Green Bay on Tuesday. I just managed to avoid the blanket of snow that has buried Wisconsin. So all I've got is some links back to some other great articles.

From Tom Pelissero:

But [CB Tramon] Williams also drew three pass-interference penalties (cost: 112 yards) on downfield throws and could have had a fourth for repeatedly impeding the receiver’s arm(s) while the ball was in the air.

Oh you're killing me. Sometimes he does a great job, such as the INT in the end zone, but 112 penalty yards! After the Admiral Ackbar reference, Aaron Schatz sends more sarcasm Williams's way (and he's not wrong) after announcing the Packers are now No.3 overall according to their rankings (ahead of even the Colts):

Yes, those Packers. You can't accuse them of consistency, and you can't accuse them of understanding the pass interference rules, but you can accuse them of overall greatness...

(By the way, while I was putting that table together, Tramon Williams was flagged for defensive pass interference nine more times.)

Star-divide

Tom Pelissero again on why Williams was targeted so often:

The Packers played 29 of 66 snaps (43.9 percent) in base or Big Okie, their third-highest percentage all season. That meant nickel CB Jarrett Bush was on the field less than usual, leaving Williams as the natural target.

In the cold weather, neither team played their safeties deep. Though QB Aaron Rodgers outplayed QB Joe Flacco overall, Rodgers was much worse on his deep accuracy (remember that long 1st half INT?). While the Ravens kept both safeties in the game, the Packers often sent SS Atari Bigby out, and LB Brandon Chillar in his place. If throwing deep is tough, defensive coordinator Dom Capers apparently decided to use the Big Okie (5 LB package) to take RB Ray Rice out of the game. The Packers played with 5 LBs a lot in the 2nd half, which is part of the reason why Flacco was challenging Williams deep.

Tom Pelissero on the rookies:

Matthews’ other sack was all him, whipping LT Jared Gaither off the initial punch.

Raji (35 snaps) had his own nice day, twice working off LG Ben Grubbs to drop a runner for loss or no gain and hitting Flacco’s arm on a late incompletion. The third key rookie on defense, LOLB Brad Jones, had four pressures, including his sack against RT Michael Oher.

It was interesting that late in the game the Packer D was rushing four rookies (Matthews, Raji, DE Jarius Wynn, and Jones) at times to finish off the Ravens.

On the injuries - from Mike McCarthy:

The two injuries I'd just like to comment on. Nick Barnett had a knee sprain. He may miss some practice time this week. I'll know more about Nick in the morning. Also Ryan Pickett had a hamstring strain, and he'll definitely miss some practice time this week.

The run defense has been outstanding this season, and Barnett and Pickett have been playing great. One big advantage of playing the 3-4 defense is that it makes it difficult to run up the middle. RB Ryan Grant couldn't go up the middle at all while the Ravens were playing both of their middle linebackers and their safeties in tight. For the Packers, that middle is usually occupied by Barnett and Pickett. The injuries aren't severe, but they could be nagging. It's something to watch this week.

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Maybe its just me

but Aaron Schatz annoys the hell out of me. Sabermetrics works for baseball but just not as much in football, imo. The reason it works so well in baseball is the mass of data that is created during a 162 game season, which a 16 game season just can’t provide. And every time I hear him talk about their systems I just come off as unimpressed. I’m not saying what they do has no value at all, I just think its nothing more than slightly interesting information that has no real predictability in real life.

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Dec 9, 2009 8:37 AM CST reply actions  

I agree with you on the sabermetrics not working for football

but what I like about Schatzat he doesn’t just rely on his systems to predict outcomes. He seems to actually watch alot of game film, and unlike alot of ex-jocks, seems to report back on his findings. How many NFL announcers can we actually rely on to report back on that kind of stuff? Collinsworth, Tim Ryan, really not very many.

I’m not really a fan of Bill Simmons and especially not of his podcasting skills, but when Schatz is on, I’ll listen.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 9, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Interesting

I’m definitely a fan of Simmons and particularly his podcasts (perfect for me to listen to in the morning at work) but when Schatz is on I skip it now. I do like when he has Lombardi on but Schatz has been a guaranteed skip for me recently. Like I said, its not that what he does is useless to me but I can’t say I’ve ever learned anything from his information.

But I agree with you on there not being very many good color guys in football.

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on Dec 9, 2009 5:19 PM CST up reply actions  

And, while I accept all that sabermetrics in baseball has taught us

like how clutch hitting is BS, etc. I really don’t enjoy reading that stuff. I’d rather just hear, ‘this guy sucks because he can’t get around on a fastball anymore’, or something along the lines of that. Flawed? Probably. All I care about is when the stats tell us somehing our eye’s can’t tell us, then I listen up. I really don’t want to see the sausage being made, I just want to consume it.

And thats how I feel about DVOA and football stats. If it tells me something my eyes don’t then I’m up for listening.

And I should also mention, I really do enjoy Bill Simmons, just not when he’s talking football, baseball, or doing unfunny podcasts with Jack-O. But I could read his NBA stuff all day, and except for his habit of watching MTV and reality shows, I sympathize with most of his television and movie tastes.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 9, 2009 11:19 PM CST up reply actions  

The biggest cause for optimism

I had not really thought about this, but Pelissero actually had an insightful take on Monday’s game. Rodgers clearly had some stretches of reduced accuracy, some normally sure-handed players had slick hands, and mistakes were made, but the Packers STILL put up 27 points.

Imagine what would happen if the offense hit on all cylinders for a game. If the D also played at its best in the same game, the result could be awfully impressive.

by NYCPac on Dec 9, 2009 11:46 AM CST reply actions  

What nobody really seems to be talking about much

after the game is just how much our d-line absolutely owned the line of scrimmage, and against a legitimately good o-line. That really allowed our linebackers to play downhill, which is probably the best news for Nick Barnett.
Even with the way our Defensive backs struggled in the game, our front seven consistently put the Ravens in bad down and distance.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 9, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

I heard it on the radio.

Both AM 620 and AM 1250 near Milwaukee said that.

Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge

by Bush League All Star on Dec 10, 2009 12:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh, that is super frustrating.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 9, 2009 11:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Your exactly right. The last 4 weeks, against pretty good Cowboy and Raven o-lines our d-line has dominated. I personally think this is huge.

This gives us a good chance to make a nice run in the playoffs. Especially since the Vikings and Saints o-lines have looked somewhat questionable as of late. Right now, we’re shutting down the run and doing it against good backs. This has forced teams to pass, and with all the pressure we’ve been getting on opposing teams Qb’s it’s made things difficult for teams. Matthews just continues to improve, and Jones improvement rushing the passer is something exciting as well.

The team we’ve seen the last 4 weeks has been the team I thought we would be this whole season. We started off slow initially, but I think we all knew we had this in us, and now we’re starting to play to the level of talent we have. This really excites me, and I can’t wait to see how things finish up.

by packallday555 on Dec 9, 2009 11:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Do you remember hearing Monday Night

Mike Tirico saying how Brad Jones reminds Dom Capers of Chad Brown when he was in Pittsburgh? That got me pretty excited. Those mid-90’s Blitzburgh defenses were just awesome and Chad Brown was a big part of their success.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 9, 2009 11:24 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Thought about this as well

Imagine if Driver holds on to that ball? We could have went down and scored a TD, and even if all we got was a FG, a score there for us would have been pretty deflating for the Ravens. They put up 0 in the 1st half, and then our defense stuffed them on their first possession in the 2st half. Then we preceded to drive down on their defense with ease until the Driver fumble.

by packallday555 on Dec 9, 2009 10:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Trying to remain cautiously pessimistic

As long as they keep Jarrett Bush off the field, they’ll be okay. I don’t think that’s why they ran the Big Okie though. They don’t know he sucks. I think they just Forrest Gumped their way into it. I’m telling you, prepare yourself mentally for Jarrett Bush to singlehandedly destroy the season. He gave up a touchdown Monday even though he was only on the field for a few plays. He’s a time-bomb.

I love everything else about the team. I even liked Williams’ aggressiveness. He’ll get penalties, but he’s a player.

by Curly Lambeau on Dec 9, 2009 12:35 PM CST reply actions  

Offense looks great but...

Ryan Grant is not cutting it. In the fourth quarter we need to put games like those against Detroit and Baltimore away. Against Detroit, he made things interesting with that safety (thank God it ended up a safety). And against the Ravens he couldn’t run at all. I think this is a very telling stat: Grant has no rushes over 4 yds in the 4th qtr in the past two games. Most of his 4th qtr attempts have indeed been for loss or minimal gain. McCarthy had to put Green against the Ravens to gain meaningful yardage and finally put the game away.
Can’t risk Rodgers throw every time in those situations. I think Grant’s ineffectiveness is one of the main causes for this team’s poor game management in the fourth quarter. The coaches need to mix the running game more by getting Green or Jackson involved a lot more often.

by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 9, 2009 5:43 PM CST reply actions  

Half Right

Grant’s style of running relies on an offensive line to give a bit of extra push and be in constant form to create running gaps. I think they’ve got their hands full staying in form protecting Aaron though. Maybe they an alternate outside runner to mix things up. Someone who can bounce out behind TEs. Grant has been good when he’s had to be, but if they’re going to rely on pure downhill running… maybe give Green the ball a few more times and just rough up the defensive interior? Dunno. I would like to see that running game get stronger.

"Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Vince Lombardi

by AdamA on Dec 9, 2009 10:01 PM CST up reply actions  

he did fine against the ravens too

just needs the ball more

See, this is what happens when the Sox bunt.
Discord is sown. Brother fights brother. Misunderstandings abound.

-TAEG

by blackoutsox on Dec 9, 2009 11:42 PM CST up reply actions  

i agree

grant does nothing when the defense expects a run. btw where was josh bell? i remember a few years back we got t this cb with the last name westbrook and he started right away i just cant accept that bush will be covering bigtime slot recievers in the playoffs.

by bAHtMANgreen on Dec 10, 2009 12:18 AM CST reply actions  

I still hold reservations about this team.

I am cautious about their play the rest of the year. We have the talent to be a great team, but we are not mistake free as we should be. Mistakes have to be limited. Now over the past four games, I can say that this seems to be trending towards shoring up, but we still have penalties that make you go “WTF?” For instance early in the year, we would have 12 men on the field or not enough men on the field (Hawk running on to the field late >.<), Jolly clobbering people, and just dumb ST errors. Those are trending for the better, except ST!

Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge

by Bush League All Star on Dec 10, 2009 12:46 AM CST reply actions  

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