Jay Cutler Doesn't Scare Me!

by Mitchell Maurer on Apr 2, 2009 10:56 PM CDT in Green Bay Packers Analysis

So Chicago just landed a Pro-Bowl quarterback in Jay Cutler. According to conventional wisdom, they filled a major hole in their roster and should immediately improve from last year's 9-7 campaign.

Brandon is impressed with the move. bizzle4 was surprised by it. My reaction?

Meh.

Yeah, yeah, Cutler is a decent quarterback. He's got a big arm, has above-average mobility, and certainly knows how to lead a team, not to mention the perfunctory offseason drama-fest. But in the Windy City, he doesn't have Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to throw to, nor does he have the ridiculous altitude that makes his long ball look even longer. (And yes, that is exactly what she said.)

There's just too many problems with the Bears for me to take them seriously. Orlando Pace is going to protect the blind side? Really? Pace will have problems containing Cullen Jenkins at this point in his career, much less Jared Allen. Devin Hester is an incredible athlete, but I have my doubts as to his ability as a wide reciever. The rest of the recieving corps contains gems like Earl Bennett, Rashied Davis, and Devin Aromashodu. Matt Forte will still have to carry the offense, and he's bound to get dinged up sooner or later.

Throw in Jay Cutler's iffy accuracy and the myriad of problems on the defensive side of the ball, and you've got a roster which promises much and delivers little. Expect a ton of people to pick them to win the division and make a deep playoff run.

You know things are crazy when the Minnesota Vikings have a legitimate reason to cry out "Disrespect!" I honestly think that Detroit would be a better fit for Cutler: blindly chucking it to Calvin Johnson will probably result in more touchdowns than blindly chucking it to Greg Olsen. The Bears just plain gave up way too much to get Rex Grossman v.2.0.

So am I excited for the Bears-Packers opener on Sunday Night Football? Quoth the Kool Aid Guy...

OH YEAH!

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Comments

This definitely makes the NFC a little more interesting this year. I can't wait!

When I see a solar eclipse I think "oh no, is the moon eating the sun?"

by Pocket Ninja on Apr 2, 2009 11:18 PM CDT reply actions

Really, I think the Bears won't be much better next year

Their defense is getting worse. Urlacher was not very good last year, and while Tommie Harris was better he still isn’t back to his ‘05/’06 form.

And Orlando Pace is probably the best sure injury bet since Steve McNair.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Apr 3, 2009 1:57 AM CDT reply actions

Okay.

1- The DLine will now be run by Marinelli (one of the best, if not THE best in the league), and Lovie will be calling the plays.

2- Pace only gave up 2 sacks last year, on a pitiful team.

I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious. (Vince Lombardi)

Dude, for serious? 1986 was 23 years ago.
Can we drop it?
-halfblindcubbiegirl

by Dane Noble on Apr 3, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Lovie and Rod can coach their butts off next year

but they can’t stop this defense aging. You can manufacture a productive offense if you coach it well enough, but you need the horses on defense.

I’m not doubting Pace isn’t a great player. He’s one of the three best left tackles of the past decade, but at this point of his career, he’s going to struggle to stay healthy.

by jobe on Apr 4, 2009 2:28 AM CDT up reply actions

Say what you will...

Say what you will about the supposed “blah” factor of this trade—at least the bears are going to be using ALL AVENUES to at least attempt to make their team better (yes, that was a jab at TT). Sure they might have reached for an aging Orlando Pace, but we matched an offer for Jarret Bush—(did I just say that!?) who can defend that move as money well spent?!

The thing that blows my mind about TT is that he seems to be attempting to build a “good” team for the long haul, which is fine but last time I checked the goal is to win a superbowl—it is a win-now league…not a “let’s see where 98 draft picks gets us” league.

I was at the philly game (4th and 26) and I was at the 08 NFC championship...history seems to repeat itself.

by 3rdigraphix on Apr 3, 2009 7:07 AM CDT reply actions

take from a Bears fan

I’ll admit up front, I’m a bit ambivalent on this.

Offensively, there is no way that the ‘09 Bears are not going to be a huge upgrade over ’08. QB just got much better. Offensive Line (while certainly not an elite group) will be way better this year with Pace and Williams (our #1 pick last year who got hurt preseason & was out for the whole year) manning LT & RT respectively. Hester should show at least moderate improvement at WR. Forte, already very good last year, should improve after having a year of NFL experience under his belt. Cutler may not have the full arsenal of tools in Chicago he had in Denver, but no one in their right might could deny the Bears offense is going to be a lot more dangerous this coming year. The Bears will still be a run-first offense; no doubt about that. The difference will be they have the potential for big plays when they do throw the ball. And opposing defenses are going to have to respect the deep pass with Cutler back there in a way they really didn’t with Orton at QB; that in turn likely means defenses playing at least a little bit softer against the run, which in turn should open up things for Forte a little more. I suspect when all is said and done, the ’09 Bears will put up more points on the season than any Bears team in recent history.

The real question mark will be the defense. (It sounds so odd as a Bears fan saying that…) They are getting old at some key positions, Urlacher is no longer the game-changing MLB he was a few seasons ago, and with the trade they’ve lost a lot of high draft picks that would have (potentially, at least) allowed them to get younger & more athletic on D.

Taken together, I think the Bears are going to be involved in a lot more 34-31 type games than 9-6 type games over the next few years. Whether they can win enough of those games remains to be seen.

by JohnPaul on Apr 3, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions

Makes Bears better

I give Angelo and the Bears credit for trying to change. Sure, it’s a gamble, but a calculated one. Angelo hasn’t done much with his #1 picks, which means the price may not have been as steep as it seems. And whatever else you say about the deal, at the very least it makes things interesting — which the Bears haven’t been.

Even with Cutler, Denver did not win the Super Bowl last year. Then again, i don’t see the Packers getting much meaningful pressure on Cutler, Orlando Pace or not. Bears recievers are lousy, but the Olsen + Cutler combo might be good enough to cause a lot of problems for GB LBs in coverage.

by uglyfatpimplynerd on Apr 3, 2009 11:06 AM CDT reply actions

The offense will be a lot better and there is no denying that. Ya hester isn’t a great wr but he is so fast. With people having to respect forte and the running game, it will open up the PA deep ball. The thing that will decide how good they are is the defense, which has been declining over the last few years. But you never this trade just might be the “spark” to get them excited and going again. Hopefully not tho :) pack all day!

by packallday555 on Apr 3, 2009 12:02 PM CDT reply actions

the bears always wanted their Favre type of QB....

I was very shocked to hear this as I thought the Lions or Skins would get him. But this was a potentially a good move for the Bears. They will finally go into the next few seasons with a definite answer at QB. However, I do not see them being much better than their 9-7 maybe 10-6 but doubtful for a few reasons.

1.Mitchell was right about Hester… He is a homerun guy who can get deep but he is not a great WR. He has plenty of drops and is not a every down guy.

2. The still are a run first offense. Forte will have a heavy load again.

3. Their defense is aging quickly… A few years ago this would have made them a superbowl contender for years. But since then they have kept most of their same defensive guys and they are not as young and fresh anymore. Aleast one major player seems to get hurt every year for them.

4. One of their biggest holes (OT) was filled by a guy that is past his prime and was released from his former team. Pace used to be a force on the line but just as the defense is he hasnt aged well

5. Sticking with that age problem they had to give up their next two first round picks and this years third round will be trouble for them. They need fresh young players and wont get them any other way.

by bizzle4 on Apr 3, 2009 12:38 PM CDT reply actions

My take:

1- Hester was still raw last season at WR… he has been making great strides, and will undoubtedly attract double-teams next season. Earl Bennett is learning as well, and has had a great offseason. Plus, we have possible the best TE tandem in the NFL. And, hopefully we add another WR with our 2nd round pick. Passing game will be better.

2- Forte will hopefully not have a “sophomore slump” and will be able to share the load with a healthy Kevin Jones. Running game will be better next season.

3- Defense is aging, but not too old to make plays yet. Marinelli will revamp the DL, and Lovie will call the plays. Bob Babich (our DC) will be working with our secondary… he was the biggest problem with our defense last year. Defense will be better.

4- Pace only gave up 2 sacks all last season, for a terrible team. He is a welcome addition. Also, we added 3 free agents to our OL, as well as Chris Williams (last year’s 1st round pick) who should be healthy. The OL will be better this year.

5- We are aging at the same rate as other teams, and have plenty of fresh talent that we are developing. Age hasn’t yet become an issue, but when it does, as it happens to everyone, we will address it.

We actually made some moves this offseason (for the 1st time in my life), and things are looking up. But, the Pack is also young, and will be dangerous in the next couple of years if they address some holes. In the meantime, it will be fun to watch the Pack/Bears (Rogers/Cutler) rivalry for the next 10 years or so :)

Dude, for serious? 1986 was 23 years ago.
Can we drop it?
-halfblindcubbiegirl

by Dane Noble on Apr 3, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't understand

why many “experts” are saying this makes the Bears the favorites in the NFC North. As you noted, there are plenty of issues with this team. One acquisition, albeit a Pro Bowl QB, isn’t going to put this team over the top. Just wait till Cutler throws 2 picks in the Sunday night opener.

I’m fine with the Pack flying under the radar. That will make it even sweeter when we take the division by storm this year.

by spell on Apr 4, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Bears

Cutler may make the Bears a little better, but that alone won’t make them a playoff team.

Hester is barely a passable WR! Hasn’t played WR really until last year, was a CB before and all purpose guy, but definitely not a WR in college. I think he is a return man, who is maybe a #3 WR on most teams! He doesn’t scare me much…

They, like the Pack, have issues on the OL, but I’ll take our interior OL over theirs, both need an OT.

Forte wil continue to be the focus in the run dominated Bears offense. He is the primary RB and one of the primary recievers. Really good all around RB, but not a Pro Bowl type…

Defense will not get much better! They MIGHT get a little better this year, if the injured get better, but Brown was the glue to the D for the Bears and he’s not there anymore! Most of the pieces of their once very good D are shells of their former selves!

SO Cutler is going to a run and defense dominated team… But he won’t have Shanahan anymore so the coaches better know how to handle him. Shanahan could and did make him alot better! I think w/o Shanahan’s presence he’ll become a turnover Machine. Already prone to bad decisions, he’ll start forcing throws into coverage, get frustrated. I really don’t think this is a good fit!!!

And I like Cutler. THink he can be a franchise QB in the right setting, but on the bears??? NO WAY!!!

by Strohman on Apr 4, 2009 4:46 PM CDT reply actions

look at it this way

1. Last year, the Bears were 1 win from being a playoff team.
2. Bears have gotten significantly better this year as compared to last year.

That’s why there’s reason to believe they are going to be a playoff team. And as for your comments about Brown, ya he was great… during the 10% of the season when he was actually on the field, unlike the 90% of the season (every season) when it seems like he was hurt.

by JohnPaul on Apr 5, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Better?

How have the bears gotten better??? They bought themselves the 16th rated QB in the NFL, who last year was in a position to succeed, but failed!!! He had a talented offense that was set up for him to succeed, yet when it came time to win 1 game of the last 4 to secure a playoff spot he FAILED!!!

Answer me this… What kinda QB do you want on a run and defense dominated team? You want a QB that will play field position and control the clock. Cutler is impulsive, a risk taker! He is exactly the type of QB you DON’T want on a run and defense dominated team!!

Last year he had a HC who was among the best offensive minds in football in Shanahan! Are the bears going to start throwing 60% of the time to accomodate Cutler? NOT hardly…

In Lovie and Ron Turner do they have the offensive expertise anywhere near equal to that of Shanahan? HARDLY… In Chicago does he have talent at WR and TE that allows him to succeed? HARDLY…

Watch as Cutlers QB rating plummets and Ortons improves significantly!!!

by Strohman on Apr 5, 2009 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions

QB ratings...

not all that great. He’s got a nice TE to throw to. If you want to believe that Cutler was the one who failed to carry the Broncos, how about the Packers? If you used the same logic, Rodgers would be a bum. There are hundreds of factors that go into wins and losses and the idea isn’t sound.

by ol Pete on Apr 5, 2009 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions

TE

He has a couple of good TE to throw to in Chitown… He had one in Denver too. Scheffler is a really good TE, that I would say is equal to Olson. Totally agree that a QB needs a strong team to make the playoffs, but the fact remains that the Broncos had a 4 game lead w/ 4 games to go, and FAILED to make the playoffs!

And that was w/ one of the best HC in the NFL… Lovie is nowhere near that level! And he is a defensive coach, his OC has no reputation whatsoever. How are they going to make Cutler a better QB, than Shanahan made him w/ fewer offensive weapons to utilize???

NOT going to happen!!! His QB rating is going nowhere but down!!!

by Strohman on Apr 5, 2009 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions

flip it

Rodgers had a team that was widely considered Super Bowl quality. A coach who is pretty good at the offensive part of the game (I would argue better than Shanahan) and a great receiver corps.

by ol Pete on Apr 6, 2009 7:31 AM CDT up reply actions

But the Pack

didnt fail completely due to Rodgers. Rodgers posted top 10 and top 5 numbers the whole season. The Pack like the Broncos had a horrible defensive year. But down the stretch Cutler choked out. He was a pro bowler but just by his first half numbers….. Rodgers put up strong numbers throughout the season.

Also you have to consider Cutler is somewhat of a seasoned vet now. He has no excuses to be choking out in stretch. Rodgers was a “rookie” last year.

by bizzle4 on Apr 6, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions

By your own admission the Broncos weren’t a strong team, so it’s unfair to hang it all on Cutler. As pointed out above, this argument is inconsistent. Rodgers’ failure to win in the clutch were the team’s fault, but in Cutler’s case it’s his shortcomings? You can’t have it both ways.

In any case, we shall see what a difference Cutler makes in September. We’re still a ways out, and anything could happen between now and then, but i’m thinking that the Bears will be favoured which will make the Packers & points a good bet.

by uglyfatpimplynerd on Apr 6, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions

I don’t think it’s a good idea to evaluate this deal on team image. For one, the Bears actually passed as much as the Packers with their crappy run offense: 528/991 plays vs. 541/1012 for the Packers, so the characterisation of them as a running team is a bit off. (Denver was 620/1019). We all know the Bear D was not that great last year. The Bears might be waking up to that, too, and that could have been a motivating factor behind the deal.

Cutler is better than Orton, no question. Better arm, more mobile, better vision — not that Orton ever had anyone to throw to…

by uglyfatpimplynerd on Apr 5, 2009 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Scorability Index

Please read CHFF’s take on this trade. Very enlightening.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2708_A_team_in_need_of_a_statistical_stimulus_plan.html

I’m betting three picks come Sept. 13 with one for 6 by the boys in Green.

by 50 years and Counting on Apr 4, 2009 9:01 PM CDT reply actions

Wow...call me crazy...

…but I think this was a great deal for the Bears! they get a 26 year old Franchise QB who will be there for the next 10 years…(same age as Rodgers, right?) This kid has yet to hit his peak and he completed 62 percent of his passes while leading the league in pass attempts (FAvre’s best year was 65 or 66 percent right?) plus 4500 yards passing…and of their last 10 number 1 picks, Bears only have Brian Urlacher to brag about….

How long have the VIkins, Lions, Niners, Dolphins, Bills, Jets, browns etc etc etc been looking for a franchise QB? It’s one of the toughest searches in professional football and they finally got there franchise qb. The trade makes total sense

by PackFaninFL on Apr 4, 2009 11:24 PM CDT reply actions

Really, all we can do is guess

I love the specualtion on the Bears this year, but the real question is what happens with Cutler longterm. I think he is a magnificient talent at qb who already played at a high level last year. I would say his ceiling and and style of play is somewhere around Brett Favre. He will probably never reach the machinelike efficiency level of Brady and Manning, but he could become a qb who gives his team a chance to win until the end because he can make impossible things happen.

However, he is not at that level yet. He could also turn into a major headcase and a 1½ year wonder. He could have his knee blown out and his elbow injured two years from now – like what happened to Carson Palmer when he was moving up to the elite group of passers. We just don’t know, put it will be crucial for evaluating the deal.

IF Cutler reaches his ceiling the Bears made a steal. Giving up two 1st rounders will set team development back a little over the next years, but if the qb-position is turned into a position of strength year in and year out, it doesn’t really matter. You just can’t put a price on having the better qb pretty much every game you play.

It will be interesting to see over the next couple of years. Personally I am much more sceptical of Cutler’s abilities than I was two months ago. Is he really just a me-first player? Does he have the mental toughness to face the HUGE expectations in Chicago?

by hythlodaeus on Apr 5, 2009 2:41 PM CDT reply actions