If the Packers trade down, then what might they receive in return?
In 2008, Baltimore traded down from No. 8 overall and received Jacksonville's 1st round pick, two 3rd round picks, and one more in the 4th round. With the Packers current roster, loaded with a lot of young players, adding three more mid-round picks to the roster battle doesn't sound like a big win. They could use quality over quantity at this point.
It might be a similar cost to move up. Since the Packers wouldn't be trading up for a franchise quarterback, the ridiculous price the NY Giants paid to move up and draft QB Eli Manning (an additional 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick, and a 5th round pick just to move up three spots) isn't a good comparison. It would probably be something like what the NY Jets received to let the St. Louis Rams draft LT Orlando Pace in 1997 (No. 1 overall for No. 6 overall plus third-, fourth- and seventh-round picks). Still, my first choice is that they stay at No. 9 overall and select Boston College DT B.J. Raji.
It really depends on what is offered if they would consider trading out of the 1st round all together. Three teams have surrendered their 1st round pick, so far, in this draft, although none of them have been as high as the Packers No. 9 overall selection. Have those teams gotten good value for their 1st round picks?
- Chicago trades it's No. 18 overall pick (plus QB Kyle Orton and other picks) to Denver for QB Jay Cutler. I'll stand by what I said earlier; this was a great trade for Chicago (unfortunately).
- Dallas trades it's No. 20 overall pick to Detroit for WR Roy Williams. This trade didn't make sense for Dallas when it happened. And Williams didn't do anything while in Dallas last season to justify it either. But Williams has a lot of time left to prove himself and maybe the departure of WR Terrell Owens will give him the chance to emerge in their offense.
- Philadelphia trades it's No. 28 overall pick (plus two other picks) to Buffalo for LT Jason Peters. And then Philadelphia has to make him the highest paid OT in the NFL. It sounds like a steal for the Eagles, a two time Pro Bowl LT for a late round draft choice. But it doesn't sound like anyone else was willing to offer that much for him either. Probably because Peters spent the last 12 months trashing his team.
If the Packers trade out of the 1st round, they aren't likely to get an established player like any of the three mentioned above. But the above three trades do give some idea of the cost; taking on a player who had fallen out of favor with a previous team in order to take a chance on a talented young player.
The most likely scenario would be that they would trade down and gain a couple extra 3rd round picks. That doesn't seem like a good enough price. I don't see much upside in trading their two 3rd round picks this year to move up a couple spots either. Hopefully the Packers just stay right where they are.