Grading the Pack (Using Math!!!)
First off, as a disclaimer, let me just warn everyone that I am the last person that should be utilizing the likes of formulas, tables, and basic algebra. I loathe numbers in general, and find math to be a thoroughly detestable discipline.
With that being said, doesn't running a few meaningless calculations and coming up with your own simplistic, probably-not-applicable formulations make you feel like you really know what you're talking about?
Yah, I thought so.
Basically, that's what I've done. We can all grade the picks and then look at our grades and get a rough idea of how the team did overall and hand out a grade accordingly. I wanted to do something a bit more in depth. Not only have I graded each pick but I have come up with a conversion table in order to apply some more value to higher picks. It is, of course, not the result of any statistical analysis I've conducted, but rather my wandering mind during my 11:45 lecture. Here are the rates I used dependent on the round.
|
1st Round |
x5 |
|
2nd Round |
x4 |
|
3rd Round |
x3 |
|
4th Round |
x2.5 |
|
5th Round |
x2 |
|
6th Round |
x1.5 |
|
7th Round |
x1 |
There are some obvious kinks with this table. First of all, according to it, the difference in value between the 32nd and the 33rd pick is the same as the difference between the 1st and the 56th. This would definitely be a problem if I used this conversion table for every pick of the draft. However, the Packers generally drafted in the top half of the round, so I don't think the values will be skewed too much.
On to the grades. I used the basic 4.0 scale that most of us are all familiar with. Essentially an A translates to a 4.0, a B to a 3.0, a C to 2.0 and on ward. A "+" or a "-" will move a grade up or down 1/3 respectively.
But what exactly does each grade mean? Again keeping with the theme of simplicity, it's pretty straight-forward. If a pick got an A, I think it was the perfect pick at that spot in the draft. A B denotes that I generally liked the pick, but that something kept it out of the A range, possibly what I felt was a bit of a reach or maybe character concerns that come along with the player. A C-grade is basically neutral. A D I definitely don't like, and an F, if there was one, would probably translate to "What was Teddy on when he made this selection?"
So onward to the picks! You'll see in the 5th column the overall score of the draftee after I've factored in the value of the pick. And, of course, on the far right are my comments on why each selection deserved what I gave it. Follow the jump to my overall team grade.
| 1 |
B.J. Raji (DT) |
A |
4.0 |
20.0 |
Excellent pick to anchor interior; will impact "D" immediately |
|
1 |
C. Matthews (OLB) |
B+ |
3.333 |
16.666 |
Great addition; ideal 3-4 OLB; could've held on to a 3rd though |
|
4 |
E.J. Lang (OT/OG) |
B+ |
3.333 |
8.333 |
Versatile lineman with good toughness but is he OT material? |
|
5 |
Q. Johnson (FB) |
C+ |
2.333 |
4.666 |
Excellent value but not much of a need at all |
|
5 |
J. Meredith (OT/OG) |
A+ |
4.333 |
8.666 |
"Issues" aside; 2nd round talent in the 5th= Steal of the Draft |
|
6 |
J. Wynn (DE) |
D |
1.0 |
1.5 |
Not suited for 3-4; needs to add 15lbs; not enough upside |
|
6 |
B. Underwood (CB/S) |
B+ |
3.333 |
5.0 |
Athletic and versatile; gives some depth; character concerns |
|
7 |
B. Jones (OLB) |
B+ |
3.333 |
3.333 |
Fast; could be a good special teamer |
The next step is to assess the team's overall performance by computing a total grade much like we would a cumulative GPA.Sounds kind of scary right? Don't worry, I have a rudimentary understanding of basic multiplication and division! Yay, Math!
First off, we add up the all the total scores of the players selected (69.166).
Next, we add up all the base values of each pick we used. (5+5+2.5+2+2+1.5+1.5+1=20.5)
And finally, we divide the total score by the base value...
(69.166/20.5)
... for a final GPA of 3.4.
Roughly, translates to a B+.
Which, in all honesty, is probably what I would've given them regardless of all this mumbo-jumbo.
I feel a B+ is a very appropriate grade. The Packers made some noise in the first round, taking two of the finest defenders in the draft. However, in the process, they deprived themselves of a pick until the fourth round. Simply put, we didn't have to give up both third-rounders to nab Matthews. We were still able to get some quality players later on, including the gem of the draft, Jamon Meredith, but this year's haul lacked the plethora of mid-range quality we've come to expect. All in all, I am one happy camper, and can't wait to get these guys on the field.
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4 comments
Comments
Yay Math!
is right.
"I'm so clean, cats think I sip Ajax."
by Mitchell_M on Apr 27, 2009 6:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Kiper
Gave us an “A” and said we had the best draft out of any team. I’ll take that and I don’t think we really need to rationalize our picks with math. Plus, the system isn’t that mathematical since the grades are just based on an opinion of each player. Also, I think the later guys are so hard to judge that it is hard to rate anyone’s picks past the second or third round.
by justinlewis on Apr 27, 2009 10:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've got a bone to pick with your math.
And it’s mainly that it’s still dependent on the arbitrary grades given in column C. Is it based on statistics? On character? Just a good vibe about the kid? A liiiiitle bit of hype?
Don’t get me wrong, I like the idea, but you need to be able to point to a standard level by which all players are graded before I can give it any weight. Additionally, do you grade all players equally? Or on a curve based upon where they are taken in the draft? If you grade on a curve, how is that curve determined? Are team “needs” weighed more heavily than the best player available?
Also, J .Wynn is graded with a D and has a 2.0. That should either be a D with a 1.0 or a C with a 2.0
When you go to somebody's house, you don't crap on their floor. Being a fan of one team does NOT give you license to be a dick to fans of another.
by Robert Rence on Apr 28, 2009 9:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You're right.
It is completely dependent on the grades I assign them. I don’t think there’s really anyway you can get around that. At this point, there’s no data set that one could analyze to derive some sort of formula that would yield empirically based grades. College statistics don’t really matter. I suppose I could go through every mock draft on the internet and determine value of the pick based on where they were projected to go, but even doing that is simply relying on the arbitrary hunches of a bunch of analysts and amateurs.
With regards to the letter grades I assign, it really is an amalgam of factors. As I said before A can be thought of as an ideal pick, C as one that I don’t like but can’t say I dislike, and F would indicate a pick which I felt what horrible. When determining the merit of an individual pick, I considered lots of things: Was it a good value at the spot of selection? Does this player fit our scheme? Do they fill a need? Are they free of off-field issues? What is their potential?
The B+ rating for Clay Matthews provides a good example of how these factors were considered. I consider Matthews a ideal 3-4 OLB, who definitely fills a team need, with good character- all qualities of an “A” pick. At the spot we got him, I also felt it was a fine value. However, the fact that we traded up both of our 3rd round picks to take him, when probably a 3rd and a 4th/5th would’ve done, led me to grade his selection as a B+.
It’s important to remember that I am not grading the players per say, but more so the selection of that player itself. So there is a built-in curve in the sense that I analyze each pick within the context of when it was. Thus, I’m not looking at all the players selected in a common pool and saying “Oh, this guy is good he gets an A, this isn’t quite as good, he’s a D.” Instead, I looked at each pick and asked, “Was this a good selection at this spot?”
Really all I wanted to do was weight the earlier rounds with more value than the later ones and then come up with a final grade that was truly composed of the grades assigned to the selections throughout. That’s really the only time where some type of objective application of math was used, and even that was based on a somewhat arbitrary allocation of values. Nonetheless, I’m pretty happy with the results. There’s, of course, plenty of room for improvement, but for what it was, I’m not gonna get to worked up.
And nice catch on Wynn.
"stay (green and) gold"
by Green and Bold on Apr 28, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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