Wednesday Packer Hit: Shutdown Corner

by Brandon on May 27, 2009 7:00 AM CDT Comment 12 comments

The NFL news streaming across the web just isn't that interesting today. For example, I don't care that WR Anquan Boldin is switching agents, but that is one of the big NFL news stories. And not much Packer news on the eve of the Packers' first spring practice.

But Shutdown Corner did post an offseason progress report about the Packers. And his conclusion:

Progress: The progress will have to come from Capers and new draft picks B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews. I don't have any major concern about the ability of Aaron Rodgers to guide the offense, but you don't want him in a position where he has to get in a shootout every week. It's all up to Capers and how he deals with the hand he's been dealt.

Plus 2 wins. 6-10 last year, 8-8 this year.

As he said in the intro, his progress report isn't exactly a 2009 preview. He's just looking at what changed and he projected a record on that alone, so I won't pick on all the things he didn't consider.

What he sees is an offense that is still good, but only led them to a 6-10 record last season, and a defense that upgraded with a better defensive coordinator and two 1st round picks. But the defense took one step back because everyone has to learn the new 3-4 defense, and several players have to learn new positions (e.g. Aaron Kampman is moving to linebacker).

He sees some improvement and that should be good for two more wins. But I don't expect he'll stick with just an 8-8 record when he looks at everything in a full 2009 preview. I expect he'll add a couple more wins to his final 2009 preview because anything short of a 10-6 record will be a disappointment.

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Alright so I saw the headline of Shutdown Corner and the picture, and maybe its just cause I only slept about an hour and a half last night, but I suddenly had grave concerns about the new 3-4. I’m envisioning Raji and Pickett as our corners and trembling with fear.

Frye is honestly gotta be one of the top 10 3rd Stringers in all of the NFL right now--colbyb

by verno329 on May 27, 2009 10:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm still excited about the 3-4

I expect BJ Raji to win the starting position at NT. Ryan Pickett will probably be asked to drop some pounds and play LE, while Cullen Jenkins will remain at RE (which suits him well). One thing is for certain, the change to the 3-4 does not help this season, but next season and the years after that. It takes time. I feel with our talent though that our D will be average this season, which is exactly what Green Bay needs. An average defense. We’ve had an average defense in 07’ and 05’ and what seemed to be a very long decade before that. Therefore, the 4-3 scheme was not working out. Our D was never getting better. It was amazing in our Super Bowl years, but afterwards it has been nothing. We needed a change. Lets see how our defense performs in the next few years under the 3-4.

by Jabooty on May 27, 2009 2:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we had an average defense....

…in 07 when we went 13-3…through 12 games we were in the top 5 in sacks…at the end of the season we are 11th overall in defense (yards per game)…and In points allowed, we ranked 6th BEST overall…about 18 points per game…New England was just ahead of us at 17 points per game…

I personally would have have kept the 4-3 defense as you can win with it (as the 07 season clearly shows) we were just decimated by injuries last year to our front 7, but everyone wants to blame the scheme. But oh well, the 3-4 is here and I like Capers and I hope things work out….

by PackFaninFL on May 27, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Needed

We didn’t NEED to change to a 3/4 defense… McCarthy interviewed and almost hired Williams who was a 4/3 coach. What WAS needed was a change in scheme… Whether from the Bates/Sanders 4/3 to Williams 4/3 or Capers 3/4… A change was needed!!!

THe old 4/3 was too predictable and vanilla! The ONLY coverage we EVER played was Press Man. I like press coverage alot, but you simply can’t line up in that coverage EVERY down and expect to win consistently! Maybe if Bates had stayed he would have coached it better and that would have helped, but we ABSOLUTELY had to mix coverages, rush lanes, etc. We played a strict 4/3 w/ only 4 pass rushers every down before!

Williams 4/3 was much more varied and put more pressure on the QB. Both on the field where pressuring the QB in vital, but also putting pressure on the QB to audible, change plays, blocking schemes, etc.

Capers 3/4 will put that kind of pressure on the QB as well. Our D will now be MUCH more difficult for the opposing coaches and QB’s to prepare for! Sanders was horrific when it came to adjusting from his VERY basic defense!!!

by Strohman on May 28, 2009 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Capers will mix it up

I know that’s what Mike McCarthy is looking for. He wants the rush to come from anywhere. Make it unpredictable.

But I do want to stick up for the 4-3. That defense can work too. And the pass coverage was strong last season. The pass rush struggled, but they also lost DE KGB (he was still providing a solid pass rush in 2007 but his knee injury took that away from him in 2008) and DE Cullen Jenkins. Losing 2 of your best 3 pass rushers, on a defense built to provide a pass rush from the defensive line, is a pretty big blow. The run defense was bad, but I was upset at the players, not specifically the run defense formation.

I’m a believer in the 3-4, but I believe in the 4-3 too.

by Brandon on May 28, 2009 12:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember...

in the Dallas game last year, when Jenkins was out of the game and Mike Montgomery (his eventual replacedment) came in…and on that very play he was sealed in by the Tight End Witten (a TE!) which sprung Felix Jones for his 60+ yard scamper…no way Witten man-handles Jenkins the way he did MOntgomery. When we lost Jenkins for the rest of the year, I knew it was lights out…

And Jenkins is a real good pass rusher too from the inside on third down…etc etc…

I don’t care how much of genius Capers is, if we suffer the loss of the big fella Jenks again…and/or another significant guy, like a Barnett , we are in for a tough season.

by PackFaninFL on May 28, 2009 3:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Witten

While I admit I never want to see the defensive end get swallowed up by a tight end, Witten is an outstanding blocker. It’s why he’s the best tight end in the NFL. Other players like Cooley and Gates are at least equal to him as a receiver, but neither is as good a blocker.

I bet on a play like that in the 3-4, it would be Witten taking on Clay Matthews, and hopefully Matthews is able to force Jones back inside where Barnett can make the tackle.

by Brandon on May 29, 2009 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bob Saunders was not horrible

give me a break…we had championship-calibre defense in 07…we lost in overtime to the Giants, our defense was on the field for over 40 minutes and held them to 20 points until the unfortunate INT led to the fiedl goal to win it. That defense was heroic and deserved better…but our offense sputtered and that’s that.

Was that Saunders being horrible too? Or when we were 6th best overall in points allowed in 07?

Final, final point…everyone talks about “predictability”…let’s get something straight, there was nothing more predictable than the power sweep, than Montanta to Rice…than Michael Jordan taking the shot. The bottom is that the GReat ones are GREAT because even though their actions are predictable, nobody can stop them….and that’s the BOTTOM LINE? It’s all about having the talent…if Lombardi had Randy Wright, handing off to Brent Fullwood and Paul Ott Caruth, intead of STar-Hornung-J.Taylor, you’d be calling his power sweep “vanilla” and “predictable” and calling him horrible…everyone knew the power sweep was coming, everyone predicted it…but nobody could stop it. It’s about having the Players and being injury-free.

by PackFaninFL on May 28, 2009 3:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah..

I don’t think Sanders or our 07’ D is comparable to some of the greats like Montana-Rice and Jordan haha. Yes, our D was good in 07’ but I think that’s more do to the amount of talent we have on D rather then his play calling. He was just so predictable. On every down we rushed 4 down lineman (which was fine b/c we had Kampman and KGB) and played press coverage at the line (which was fine and still is b/c of how good Harris and Woodson are in that style). He expected Barnett to pick up the RB on pass plays (which was fine b/c Barnett is fully capable of doing that), and Bigby to pick up the TE(which is ok). But to say we had a championship-caliber defense is a stretch. I don’t know how many people remember the Cowboys game, but we struggled mightily against them. Yes, they had a GREAT offense, but a championship-caliber D would have been able to at least slow them down, and we could not. I still remember we had them on their own 11, and it was like 3rd and 17-19, and we didn’t stop them. So to say our D was good is ok, but championship-caliber? I don’t think so. Too have a championship-caliber D you need to be able to stop some of the best offenses in the league and I don’t feel we could do that.

As for why Sanders was so bad in 08’….It was the simple fact that we lost Jenkins, Harris, Bigby, Barnett, Collins for a few. After we lost them, Sanders should have realized that the same old thing is not going to work. A good coordinator would know that, Montgomery is not going to provide the same pash rush ability as Jenkins. He would know that Hawk is not nearly as good in pass coverage as Barnett. He should have mixed things up after we lost all of them. Because the reason his same-old boring D worked was because we had the talent. After those injuries we no longer had the talent to run his D, and that’s where he needed to realize it and actually switch things up.
I don’t know how many of you watched the Steelers, Ravens, and Titans this year, but I did a lot. All their D’s are so good because they have a lot of talent, and a great coordinator who switches things up all the time. If you watch the Steelers LB’s at the line of scrimmage before the play starts, it’s impossible to tell who is coming and who is dropping back into coverage. (Example: James Harrison’s INT in last years Super Bowl.) He was acting like he was going to blitz the entire time, and then dropped into coverage right where Warner wanted to throw it, and picked it off. I personally think a great D is one who has a lot of talent, and one in which you never know what their going to do. I think with Capers now here we have that, and I think we have the talent. After our transitioning period I think we could be a top D in the league.

by packallday555 on May 28, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya I agree

I don’t neccessarily know if the formation change was needed. Like you said we had a lot of injuries on D and that was the primary reason we struggled. Sanders also had to go though, he was way to predictable (man coverage, rush 4 down lineman). The 3-4 seems to be the sort of new or “in” D right now in the NFL. A lot of the defensive powerhouses in recent years such as the Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens run it. It’s a formation that takes time to adjust too, but I’m confident as I feel we have the talent too make it work. I’ve read many places that Capers is a great teacher of the D, plus we hired 3 other coaches who have previous experience running it so hopefully that can speed up the learning process. All we really need our D to be is average, and I think that’s what it will be this year. But in the coming years I think it will eventually be one of the better ones in the league, and when we have that to compliment our great offense…..SUPER BOWL!!!!!!

by packallday555 on May 27, 2009 5:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

4-3 to 3-4

I don’t think the formation change was essential either. Adding Raji and Matthews to the 4-3 under Bob Sanders might have been just as good as adding them to the 3-4 under Capers. Great players will make a great defense, no matter the scheme.

It’s hard to say the defense was great, average, or awful last season. I call it bi-polar. The pass defense was fantastic, a top 5 defense with Collins, Harris, and Woodson all going to the Pro Bowl. The run defense allowed 4.6 yards/carry and was one of the bottom 5 in the league.

by Brandon on May 28, 2009 12:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs