Position Analysis: Secondary
Mitchell got it going with a look at the offensive line. In no particular order, I'm moving onto the secondary (cornerbacks and safeties). Despite a great 2008 season, this group has made some news of late and are going through a transition to a new defense under Dom Capers.
I've been hestitant to talk about the new scheme in the secondary because I have not been sure what it is. But CB Tramon Williams spelled it out last week:
"It’s not much of a difference. We get to play off man now, get to see the quarterback more and it actually helps us get jumps on routes, read the quarterback’s steps and his progression," said Williams. "In man to man, we never got the chance to see all that, we always had our back to the quarterback -- because we had to follow whoever we had. Now you can actually see everything that’s progressing and you have much more to work with."
In man to man, the cornerbacks were usually within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. They would try and jam the receiver to disrupt the route and timing. They are always looking at the receiver and rarely at the quarterback. They were right at the line to disrupt the quick routes on the QBs 3-step drop. If the receiver went deep, they turned their back to the QB and followed the receiver.
In off-man, they start out several yards from the receiver, so no more jamming at the line. They get to look in the backfield to see if the QB does a 3-step drop. If he does, then the cornerback will have to break to the ball. They'll know where to go because the QB only has a couple options in that situation. If the receiver goes deep, the coverage will look a lot like it did last season.
The new off-man scheme is not a cover-2 (or zone coverage) scheme.
Can the Packers' learn this new scheme? Uh-huh:
When asked if he isn't suited to play zone, [CB Al ]Harris responded: "Why, why wouldn't it suit me? We're not hacks here. We're pros. Man, I'm a corner. There isn't a technique that I haven't played."
Passing defense in 2008. They led the NFL with 6 INTs returned for TDs. No. 3 overall with 22 INTs. No. 3 overall with 110 pass defenses. As Al Harris would say, they were not hacks.
Ranked 7th overall by Football Outsiders. Despite the great season described above, they did allow 3,244 yards passing (No. 12 overall) and 22 TDs (No. 21 overall). There is some room for improvement and they are a step behind the top 5 pass defenses (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Tennessee and Minnesota).
It is interesting to note that a couple of these teams, Baltimore in particular, are not exactly blessed with great players in the secondary. Baltimore's secondary had one cast off from Oakland (CB Fabian Washington), another cast off from Buffalo (S Jim Leonhard), two former Pro Bowl players who were released after the season ended (CB Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle), and another cast off from Green Bay (CB Frank Walker).
Starters:
CB Charles Woodson. 2009 Pro Bowl attendee. He's started 44 games over the last three seasons. He's played through injuries and been great at intercepting the ball. But he is not often asked to cover the receiver deep, so that might not be something he is great at anymore.
CB Al Harris. 2009 Pro Bowl attendee. A lacerated spleen could have ended his season, but he came back after the bye week, and played well enough to make the Pro Bowl. In 2007, Harris had some really bad games, capped off with a bad game against WR Plaxico Burress in the NFC Championship. But he rarely got beat in 2008. He'll always have a low interception total, but a high total of pass defenses.
CB Tramon Williams. A lock to be named as the nickel back, and he'll be in on over 50% of the plays in 2009 even if he isn't officially listed as a starter. It was a surprise when he made the team in 2007. Then he outplayed CB Jarrett Bush in training camp to take the nickel spot away from him. He finished 2008 with 9 starts, 14 pass defenses, and 5 INTs. He gave up the occassional big play, so there still is some room for improvement. But he was so much better in 2008 vs. 2007 that he does have the potential to improve.
S Nick Collins. 2009 Pro Bowl attendee. He showed promise in 2005 and 2006, but right as I expected him to break out in 2007, something held him back. It might have been the injuries that forced him to miss 3 games in 2007, but maybe he just wasn't good enough. Then he blew all my expectations away with an outstanding 2008 season. I've always thought he had the physical talents and now the football IQ seems to match. I expect he'll be a good to great player going forward.
S Atari Bigby. 2008 was a lost season for him as battled a variety of injuries. The Packers tendered him a $1.5 million contract, which is a lot for a restricted free agent. The Packers would have been rewarded a 2nd round pick if another team signed him (which effectively prevented him from signing with anybody). That indicates that he is still the starter. He's not great in pass coverage because he gives the receivers a lot of cushion, but I'm eager to see how he'll play in 2009.
Backups:
CB Pat Lee. The 2nd round pick in 2008 looked lost during the preseason, but when he was forced into action when Harris was injured, he looked good. Not perfect, but good for a rookie. He'll either continue to improve as the 4th CB or maybe battle Williams for the nickel job.
CB/S Jarrett Bush. I was surprised when the Packers matched Tennessee's free agent offer. He rarely played on defense last season, and he mixed in some great special teams plays with some dumb penalties. He can play on defense in a pinch, but he's primarily around as a special teams player.
CB Will Blackmon. He's a great kick returner, but he looked awful when he actually got some playing time at cornerback in 2008. But that was a small sample size; he only played a handful of defensive plays in 2008.
S Aaron Rouse. He looked great as a rookie in 2007, but struggled in 2008. He took some bad angles which led to some big plays, while showing off a lack of speed. Although he did have the big 99 yard INT returned for a TD against MVP QB Peyton Manning. He's still firmly entrenched as the top backup at safety, but he doesn't deserve to start over Collins or Bigby either.
S Anthony Smith. One of the two "big" 2009 free agent signings. Bigby has been held out of the OTAs as he recovers from off-season surgery, and Collins is staying away from the voluntary camps, although I expect he'll show up once the OTA becomes mandatory, so Smith has gotten a lot of time with the first string defense in practice. The 25 year old was a former 3rd round pick in 2006 who started 14 games in Pittsburgh, before becoming a forgotten man in 2008, so he might be someone who can turn his career around with a change of scenary.
There are a few other cornerbacks and safeties on the roster, but they'll all have to battle for a roster spot. I don't expect any of them will beat out any of the 10 players I've listed above, or even force their way on the roster as the 11th man in the secondary.
This is arguably the best unit on the entire team, and I'm expecting another great season from them.
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Comments
I don't like the change
Off-man coverage can be effective if you a) have the right players and b) have the right matchups. Allow me to explain.
Harris and Woodson are outstanding corners, but both of them are aging. At 34 and 32 (respectively) years old, the first two things that are going to go are lateral quickness and the “first step”, the explosive move a player uses to accelerate to top speed quickly. In the press coverage scheme, this would be somewhat hidden because the receivers are disrupted at the line and their first step is neutralized.
Harris and Woodson have a knack for pushing receivers around at the line. Some would argue they push them around everywhere, but that’s neither here nor there. Why take that advantage out of their game, especially in the time in their careers where their skills will start to erode?
In high school, I played safety but slid over to CB whenever we needed it. If we were in man-to-man, I was given free reign to use whatever technique I wanted, either press or off. Whenever I was matched up against a bigger, stronger receiver, I’d play off. But if my guy was a quick player, I would always give a good punch at the line and harass him for the first 5 yards. Most importantly, it protected me from getting beat on a route because by the time the receiver had recovered and gone into his route, the ball would have gone elsewhere or the play would be broken.
Anecdote aside, Harris and Woodson can play off-man, but not as well as they played press. Perhaps this is a safer scheme to use when using a 3-4 up front; it might result in fewer openings downfield at the expense of allowing short catches on 3-step drops. But in a division where we have to play against the likes of Devin Hester, Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin (if he pans out), and Megatron Johnson (who should be double covered at all times anyway), letting these guys get off the line without a fight will be problematic in the future.
All that said, I think Tramon Williams stands to benefit most from the change; he’s quicker than the starters, giving him enough time to break up a 3-step slant, and he figures to take over once Harris or Woodson moves on. Perhaps if Al Harris falls off early in 2009, Williams might take his place because he can perform the duties of the off-man corner better.
"I'm so clean, cats think I sip Ajax."
by Mitchell_M on Jun 15, 2009 10:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think a physical corner like Harris can succeed in this system
I thought Ike Taylor was fantastic for the Steelers last year and he’s pretty much an Al Harris clone physically.
Though I see what your saying about not liking the change. I’m skeptical too. This could’ve been alot easier if we were transitioning from a Tampa 2 defense instead of a cover one defense.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
by jobe on Jun 15, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me say something about Jim Leonhard
I got to watch a lot of Ravens games last year, and Jim Leonhard got better every week. He’s like Ryan Clark in Pittsburgh in that he’s there to cover up for the gmables made by Ed Reed in coverage alot of the time.
He has good but not great speed, but he maximizes it by watching a ton of film and knowing where the play is going. He made a brilliant fourth down stop in the Tennessee Playoff game that one could only have made if they had seen it on film earlier. He seems to know Rex Ryan’s system really well, and that’s how he’s made himself some money going to the Jets.
The point is, he sure didn’t play like a castoff in 2008.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
by jobe on Jun 15, 2009 7:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Leonhard rocks
I’ve always been a fan of the former Badger. The former walkout was outstanding at Wisconsin, as a safety and as a returner. He never really got a chance in Buffalo, who originally signed him as an undrafted free agent, because he’s only 5’8" and 186 lbs. he should not be able to play safety in the NFL. He really knows how to play.
by Brandon on Jun 16, 2009 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Collins and Harris
There is an interview Collins did with the MJS back in October of 2008. The reporter was asking what had made the difference this year. Collins was very clear saying that Charles Woodson had taught him how to watch film. In the past Collins had put in lots of time preparing for the next game, but it was Woodson that taught him what to look for. This, he said, was the difference.
My thought at the time was: What are they paying a secondary coach for?
As for Harris and man-off coverage: The point is not always playing man-off or always playing press. The point is to be able to change at will. Capers claims that he will be switching the coverage to add another layer of difficulty for the opposing offense. I believe this is the important aspect. If you always play press, there are ways to beat it (back shoulder catch along the sideline.) If you always play off there are ways to beat that too (slant). If the QB doesn’t know what he’s facing until he walks to the line, it’s that much harder to plan.
My guess is they will have Harris play man a lot, but throw in off coverage to keep offenses guessing. You could see the coaches trying to do that last year. But often as not, when Harris would release to the safety, the safety wasn’t there. My hope is that Capers can get them all on same page this year. Clearly the staff couldn’t do that last year. (See note on Collins.)
by 50 years and Counting on Jun 15, 2009 10:18 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
were doomed
dom capers has murphy riding shotgun with him everywhere he goes
"If you look for the bad in someone expecting to find it.....you surely will." President A. Lincoln
by Frank R on Jun 15, 2009 11:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
should work with front 7 transition
A feel like if we are trying to run an effective 3-4, focused on getting more pressure on the quarterback (with some “exotic blitzing”) a zone defense is better. When blitzing a lot of linebackers, teams will have to get the ball out more quickly and this is easier to do against zone, especially on slants to the middle and quick hitches if not as many linebackers are covering the middle or flats. Also, defensive coordinators can mix it up a lot more with zone coverage.
Also, I feel like our secondary (or pass defense in general) was very overrated with the league-leading 6 pick-sixes and high number of regular interceptions. While this plays are exciting and can change games, the numbers do overshadow the big plays given up, the poor third-down defense that allowed opposing offenses to stay on the field, and our abysmal pass rush (all incredibly prevalent in the monday night game versus the Saints, which I personally thought was the most painful game to watch of the season).
Finally, did Harris make the Pro Bowl last year. He wasn’t an original bid, so did some players get hurt and he replace them. And what the hell does your post mean Frank R?
by justinlewis on Jun 16, 2009 12:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Injury replacement
Yep, Al Harris was an injury replacement for I-can’t-remember-who.
by Brandon on Jun 16, 2009 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And sorry Brandon, but
you need to come up with some more witty post-titles. I liked Mitchell’s cotton candy- carnival metaphor.
by justinlewis on Jun 16, 2009 12:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
finally
someone appreciates the cheesy titles
"I'm so clean, cats think I sip Ajax."
by Mitchell_M on Jun 16, 2009 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Collins
I seem to recall that Collins showed a real promise only in his rookie season, 2005, and that in 2006, as in 2007, he dropped a lot of woulda/coulda/SHOULDA been interceptions.
I seem to recall many questioning, in 2006, his continued role as a starter.
I continue to believe that his current stance on his nongoing contract negotions is based on only ONE genuinely good season (2008).
Also, ditto on justinlewis’ query to Frank R.
The Bears still suck;
The 'Queens take it a step further.
And the Lions couldn't beat
The Little Sisters of the Poor!
by NorthStarr on Jun 16, 2009 12:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Something I was thinking of, but forgot to include, was that Collins has really only had one great season (2008). Although 2005 and 2006 were solid seasons.
Generally, I’m hesitant to give a player a big contract based on one season. Especially if the team doesn’t have to do it, and in Collins case, he can’t become an unrestricted free agent after 2009. When he does become eligible for unrestricted free agency, the new collective bargaining agreement will be in place, so I have no idea what free agency might look like then.
But if it’s decided to give Collins a new big contract, I wouldn’t have a problem with that because he came so close in 2006 to emerging that the breakout 2008 season was probably real and not a one year fluke.
by Brandon on Jun 16, 2009 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely.
I’d pretty much reached the conclusion that last year was for real by the end of the season.
However, whenever the subject of giving a player a big contract based on only one good season comes up, I ALWAYS think of Don Majkowski and his silly demands and subsequent holdout in 1990.
The Bears still suck; The 'Queens take it a step further.
And the Lions couldn't beat The Little Sisters of the Poor!
by NorthStarr on Jun 16, 2009 5:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We gave Grant
a pretty huge contract based on high performance in just half a season. I don’t know if he had truely earned high-end running back dollars so quickly
by justinlewis on Jun 16, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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