So How Good Are The Packers, Really?
by Mitchell_M on Aug 23, 2009 2:44 PM CDT
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28 comments
In the first preseason game, they blanked the Browns. Yesterday, they beat the Bills in a game that was much further apart than the final score indicated (thanks to a fourth-quarter push by Buffalo's backups). So far, the Aaron Rodgers looks fantastic, Ryan Grant looks healthy, the offensive line looks solid, and the defense is firing on all cylanders.
But, it's only preseason. I've already seen posts, both here and elsewhere, that are dropping Green Bay into the championship conversation. In preseason, it's tough to tell who's a player in February and who's staying home after December.
That said, the Packers have looked really really really good thus far. So, after only two preseason games against two of the NFL's weaker franchises, what can we expect from 2009?
We can expect Aaron Rodgers to tear the league up and rise to elite status. In two games, he's 13/19 for 200 yards and 3 TD's, despite playing only a handful of series. He's averaging over 10 yards per attempt, and his QB rating is 142.5. Not bad.
At the same time, we can expect the entire receiving corps to continue dominating defensive coverages...as long as a true #3 option steps up. Jennings is Jennings, Driver is Driver, but Jordy Nelson has been quiet, and James Jones tweaked a hamstring. If Nelson gets his act together and/or Jones stops getting hurt, the Packer passing attack will truly be scary.
One major sleeper here is TE Jermichael Finley. He had his troubles last year, but from what we've seen, he's a guy who can move in space and get the ball past defenders at will. Look for him to be heavily involved, especially inside the opponent's 40-yard line.
We can expect Ryan Grant to bounce back from a terrible 2008. He's not the physical freak that Adrian Peterson is, nor the jack-of-all-trades that Brian Westbrook is. He is an explosive one-cut runner who can get yards in chunks when given an opening, a la Michael Turner or Frank Gore. He might not be as good as any of the players named above, but he is certainly able to put up comparable stats and, more importantly, move the chains when the chains need moving.
We can expect B.J. Raji to give opposing quarterbacks fits because he flat out decimates offensive linemen. One of the questions coming into Saturday's game was the debut of the first rounder from Boston College. A Bills fan posted some questions on Brandon's preview, including this:
Is Geoff Hangartner, our newly-acquired center from Carolina, able to handle Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji at NT?; in other words is he capable of not getting pushed back into Trent Edwards all the time, unlike our previous starting centers, who were pathetic in that category.
So how did Hangarter fare against Raji? Just watch this video. I haven't seen a green jersey do that to an opposing player since Reggie White.
We can expect a lot of movement in the defensive front seven. While that doesn't seem nearly as definitive as my other expectations, look at what that 3-4 defense has produced: 7 sacks, 6 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, and 21 points allowed over 2 games. Sure, there's questions about A.J. Hawk being a bust, or Aaron Kampman not being a good fit at 3-4 OLB, or whether Jeremy Thompson and/or Clay Matthews will get healthy, or how well Nick Barnett will recover from surgery. But the biggest question is already being answered.
That's what I've seen thus far. What have you guys seen, and what haven't you seen yet?
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Those highlights of Raji
Are awesome. I didn’t see him in the box score so I assumed he hadn’t done much, but he looks fearsome. I can’t wait to get a chance to watch the Packers play. I agree with you that Rodgers is probably going to be amazing this year, he was excellent last year and now he has that much more experience and talent around him. I agree with just about everything, Grant should be great. I hope James Jones bounces back, he looked so promising awhile ago. I’m not sold on the defense until I see them play a full game. The offense was good last year so it should be this year, but the defense’s performance is so surprising, I don’t know what to make of it yet. If they are as good as they look so far, this really should be a playoff team.
by Pack Man on Aug 23, 2009 2:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice Summary!
One major sleeper here is TE Jermichael Finley. He had his troubles last year, but from what we’ve seen, he’s a guy who can move in space and get the ball past defenders at will. Look for him to be heavily involved, especially inside the opponent’s 40-yard line.
As much as I like the WR’s, the receiving corps I believe were hurting without the presence of a standout TE. If Finley can prove to be the sleeper as you say, I expect the offense to be much more deadly. The Packers needed a TE to stretch the middle and catch an eye of a safety. I can only imagine how well they will do on the outside if Finley proves to be that guy.
Amazing Raji clip!
The LB’s have been okay so far. Your assessment is dead on. Health, achievement, and the new system has been the questions and you addressed them. The only one you didn’t mention was Bishop. He has been outstanding.
Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge
by Bush League All Star on Aug 23, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I suspect that the reason Nelson's been quiet...
… is in part due to Finley. They’re running a lot more 2TE sets this preseason than they did last regular season. But there’s little question that Jones, before his injury, was doing more than Nelson with the opportunities. I was hoping that with Jones limited Nelson might pop in the #3 WR role last night but it didn’t happen.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
love the schedule
Hard to get too excited – I’m about a 7 out of 10. I love the aggressive, swarming defense and am impressed with Sutton, Finley and Quinn Johnson.
The schedule is perfect for preseason. First the Packers got two weak teams. Two average defenses gave the Packer offense more time/ plays to work out the kinks and get their timing up to speed. Two below average offenses gave the Packer defense a chance to get accoustomed to the 3-4, make some mistakes and not give up points in the process. A little confidence boost will be encouraging for them.
Next comes two solid challenges. Tennessee has one of the best defenses and rushing attacks. Arizona has the best passing attack and their defense is solid at all three levels. Even though the only good passing teams the Packers face all year are week 2 Cincinnati, week 10 Dallas, and week 17 Arizona , it’ll be good practice in case they face Philly or New Orleans later…………….. or Indy…or New England…
The next two games should give the Packers a good understanding of what weaknesses need to be addressed.
by Squatbulk on Aug 23, 2009 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't help but be excited
Sure it’s only preseason but if Rodgers plays like this all year plus the amount of weapons we have, Jennings, Driver, Jones, Nelson, Finley, Lee, Grant, Jackson, there should be no way the offense isn’t top five.
Also, for once in a long time it looks like our D is playing with a fire, instead of the flat lifeless defenses we usually have. Also, Raji is a monster, I’m so glad we picked him over Crabtree.
by Charlie Kelly on Aug 23, 2009 4:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Who knows? Maybe we pick Crabtree after he goes into the next draft unsigned. (LOL)
by NYCPac on Aug 23, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
please no...
cause that would most likely mean a poor season this year and a top 10 pick!
by bizzle4 on Aug 23, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he holds out this year, I doubt he's a top 10 next year
Look at TO, he’s a good player but very few teams are willing risk dealing with the ego
by Danwood on Aug 23, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh...not exactly
Sorry man, if Crabtree doesn’t sign with the 49ers and goes BACK into the draft, there is NO way the kid shows up anywhere NEAR the top 10. Bo Jackson did that and went from being the #1 pick to a 7th rounder. There were circumstances there but NO one will take a chance on a high pick like that again with this guy.
by TrevorR on Aug 24, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Grant
You say Ryan Grant had a horrible 2008 season but when i look back on it he had 1,200 yards. yeah he didn’t play nearly as well as he did in 07 but i wouldn’t say he had a horrible year ( he started off slow when he was hurt and missed training camp but finished off pretty well.) i can see a 1,300-1,600 yard season this year from Ryan Grant.
by FFMorgan on Aug 23, 2009 6:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, he had the numbers
but the majority of us would agree that he did not play well.
I agree with your prediction; for a player like Grant, 1300 should be a floor, not a ceiling.
"I'm so clean, cats think I sip Ajax."
by Mitchell_M on Aug 23, 2009 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had the mass yardage
But his performance on 3rd/4th and short really hurt the team in the long run. Part of that was Grant, part of that was O-Line.
by Danwood on Aug 23, 2009 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yardage means less than one thinks
Many experts have done analysis to show that team yards per game and an individual player’s rushing yardage total alone hardly correlates to team success, unless it is done as an average per carry. Even as an average, a team or player can still have distortions, such as carrying the ball mostly in short yardage or only carrying the ball more on those “give up” runs on 3d and forever that teams get into.
The bottom line is that Grant took an incredibly high percentage of our team’s overall carries last season. Without looking up the specific numbers for per carry results, getting only 75 yard per game average under those circumstances is not so hot.
by NYCPac on Aug 24, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was...
…an interesting analysis (based on Smartfootbal and Football Outsiders methodology) of my favorite college team (FSU) that I’d like to see applied to our RBs, both through the preseason as well as the regular season.
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/7/27/964864/game-log-positional-breakdown-rbs
The basic thought of the analysis was comparing not only yardage, but negative plays as a component. They do caveat the article by noting NFL RBs tend to be more homogenous, but it might still be wothy of analysis.
by soliman on Aug 24, 2009 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
im not saying he played great. but to say his season was HORRIBLE is a little bit of an overstatement.
by FFMorgan on Aug 23, 2009 7:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm pumped about this team
The offense looks scary good. All we need is the defense to hold its own, and it might do more than that if Raji is as good as advertised.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Aug 23, 2009 7:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Looking forward to the regular season
That was an awesome preseason game!. I can see a huge difference from last years preseason games. Should be a very exciting season for the fans as well as the players. Raji was like pacman gobbling up all in sight… Love dem Packers! Go Pack Go!!!
by whooya on Aug 23, 2009 7:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Raji was like pacman gobbling up all in sight
as long as he’s not like pacman, “making it rain”
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Aug 23, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overall...
…I think we look promising, particularly on defense. I’ve never really been worried offensively. Raji has that rare explosiveness for a big man. I’m not saying he’s Warren Sapp fast, but he definitely has that “a guy his size shouldn’t move like that” look about him.
I see the potential for savvy QBs to take advantage of the aggressiveness of our defensive scheme, but having the secondary we do, I think we will be all right.
I am impressed thus far with Finley as well. Definitely is more of a receiving TE. In addition to his threat as a receiver, if he holds down the blocking well enough to stay on the field, his presence will help the run as defenses can’t let him release to jam the line.
I don’t think Grant had a horrible year. He got a slow start and his YPC were down, but he still ran hard given the lack of decent blocking last year. I think he’ll go 1500 this year unless McCarthy spread the ball around more.
by soliman on Aug 23, 2009 7:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rodgers is the Man!
Aaron Rodgers is poised to be a Pro Bowler this season. If he stays healthy he will become an elite NFL QB. I really like what I’ve seen so far this pre-season.
by BeerBratTees.com on Aug 23, 2009 8:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hawk a bust??
This article had some great insight. However, the comment at the end regarding Hawk made me double take while reading. Who is calling AJ Hawk a bust? He led the team in tackles last year. Not to mention he is playing in one of the better lb core’s in the NFC. Not sure I really see where any ?’s could come up about him so early in his career.
by Evan Clapper on Aug 24, 2009 1:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's more of an indictment against his draft position
rather than against him as a player. There’s been discussion about his poor run defense numbers, his deficiencies in pass coverage, and his lack of pass rush.
I’m not saying any of these things are true, but these are the arguments that have been coming from numerous sources. Usually, a number five pick shouldn’t have these kinds of arguments against them, which is where the bust label comes from.
I don’t think he’s a bust, but he’s close to flirting with bust-like status.
"I'm so clean, cats think I sip Ajax."
by Mitchell_M on Aug 24, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps it would be more fair
to reserve the “bust” label for players like Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich who are complete flops. I suspect that many of the arguments on this issue are because “bust” is such a loaded term. Perhaps Hawk could be termed “disappointing” or something similar?
by NYCPac on Aug 24, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Although he hasn’t been the playmaker you would want from a number five overall. Although I don’t really remember him being scouted as a playmaker, I think he was supposed to be just a safe pick and a solid player. But I would reserve the bust label for players like Vince Young who have proven to be below average players.
by Charlie Kelly on Aug 24, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
I can replace “bust” with “disappointing” when referring to A.J. Hawk. You three need to be the first ones to call me out if/when I slip up.
Unless of course he DOES become a bust. In which case, we shall all be sad.
"I'm so clean, cats think I sip Ajax."
by Mitchell_M on Aug 24, 2009 8:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
our question mark is the defense and if they play as well as they have in the pre-season, we’re going to be dominant
by StevieV17 on Aug 25, 2009 12:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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