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Taking a Crack at the Fifty-Three Man Roster

Move over Mock Draft enthusiasts- it's time for something far more significant to the impending season and far more Packer pertinent. I am, of course, talking about predicting the final 53-man roster the Green and Gold will go into the regular season with.

While Mock Drafts are usually based on a lot of speculation and guessing, predicting the 53 man roster is based on-- well, a little less speculation and guessing. There is still a certain degree of guess work, to be sure, but I find it's much easier for you and I, the fan, to come to reasonable conclusions based on performances thus far in camp, preseason games, and coaches' comments, as opposed to relying on how long a prospect's wingspan is or how fast they can run around a cone 6 times. Additionally, this is a far more meaningful exercise, as it is entirely Packers-orientated and also highly relevant- these are the guys that will be playing for Green Bay this year- not raw talents that probably won't even make much of an impact on the upcoming season, or any season for that matter.

 

My predictions after the jump.

Star-divide

Quarterbacks

Who they'll keep: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Brian Brohm

Who they'll cut: no one

The shakedown: Flynn has been one of the more impressive players this preseason. He has showed solid command of the offense when given his reps, and is beginning to expand his play-making ability down the field. While I can't say I'd be completely comfortable with him at the helm if Rodgers went down, he's on his way to being a respectable #2.

Despite his horrible performances thus far, and the fact that a 7th round pick is making him look like a JUCO back up, former 2nd round selection Brohm will certainly be on the team, barring some absolutely disastrous displays in the last two games. Thompson invested heavily in the former Louisville slinger, and although he hasn't been impressive to this point, it'd be hard to imagine TT abandoning such a high pick so early, a de facto acknowledgment that he screwed up.

And no, I don't think Rodgers will be cut.

Running Backs

Who they'll keep: Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn, Tyrell Sutton

Who they'll cut: Kregg Lumpkin

The shakedown: Grant, Jackson, and Wynn are locks. Grant is looking like he did in 2007, Jackson is a reliable second man, and Wynn has improved in so many ways since last off-season.The real question is what do the Packers do with Sutton and Lumpkin?

Sutton, the undrafted rookie from Northwestern, has clearly looked better than Lumpkin, himself a guy who caught on with Pack after being passed in the draft. Sutton has torn up the field in the two exhibition games so far, albeit against reserves. All Lumpkin has managed to do is draw attention to an apparent fumbling problem. But even after establishing Sutton as the favorite over Lumpkin, questions still remain. Do they need four backs? Can Sutton possibly make it through waivers to the practice squad? Can Lumpkin?

In the end, I think Sutton has drawn enough attention to him that it's hard to imagine some desperate team out there not snatching him up as a #3 or 4 back if the Packers choose to take the chance of holding him for the practice squad. I think Ted Thompson and Co. like him enough that they'll make room for him on the final roster, but if not, they're really hoping he makes it through waivers. If Sutton does end up getting nabbed by someone else, perhaps Lumpkin could end up on the eight man squad.

Fullbacks

Who they'll keep: Korey Hall, Quinn Johnson

Who they'll cut: John Kuhn

The shakedown: The selection of Johnson in the 5th round this year was a little surprising to those of us who weren't familiar with the kid. Didn't we already have two quality FB's and didn't we take efforts to ensure Kuhn didn't depart for Arizona? Then when you take a look at Johnson, you realize why he was drafted, even with two other starting caliber guys on the team.

Johnson is an absolute beast. If he was wearing a jersey number in the 60's, 70's or 90's, you'd think he was some type of lineman. Although Hall and Kuhn have been decent lead blockers, neither of them hold a candle to Johnson's potential. He is a true bruiser who simply likes to demolish backers and DB's. The tell-tale signs thus far indicate that he is a sure thing for the 53 man roster.

That leaves us with Hall and Kuhn, two solid guys who do a variety things for the Packers, whether in the backfield or on special teams. The difficult thing about this decision is that both are so darn similar in nearly every way, it's hard to pick one over the other. In the end, I think Hall wins out, based on his slight edge in the athleticism department.

Wide Receivers

Who they'll keep: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Ruvell Martin

Who they'll cut: Brett Swain, Jake Allen, JaRon Harris, Kole Heckendorf

The shakedown: If you would have asked me this a week ago, I probably would've had Martin on the cut list. Swain and Allen had made serious progress in training camp, and their big play ability was the talk around camp, especially in the case of 6'4 Allen. A very vanilla guy like Martin was all but forgotten in the mix. However, since then, neither of the young challengers has made any impact in the preseason games, which included a very poor outing by Allen against the Browns. In the end, I think McCarthy and TT will favor Martin's consistency and run-blocking ability over the more dynamic, but unproven younger guys, hoping to land them another year on the practice squad. But this will be extremely close to call, and is probably one of the more interesting story-lines as the cuts near. A lot could change in the next two weeks.

Outside of the battle for that #5 spot, things aren't too exciting. The top four make-up one of the best wide out corps in the league. Jennings has emerged as the go-to-guy but Driver certainly isn't fading away into the sunset. Meanwhile, Jones appears to be back in '07 form, when he broke onto the scene as a big play producer during his rookie year. Nelson sure ain't a bad option at #4.

Heckendorf and Harris aren't much to speak of. Heckendorf, Wisconsin's own, has proven to be a very technical route runner and has sure hands to boot. He just might lack the athleticism needed to make the squad. However, if neither Swain nor Allen land on the practice squad, Heckendorf could be the guy.

Tight End

Who they'll keep: Donald Lee, Jermichael Finley, Spencer Havner

Who they'll cut: Evan Moore

The shakedown: With the emergence of Finley and the season ending injury to Frischknecht, the TE situation isn't too complicated. Lee and Finley are clear keepers, and Havner has proven to be a suitable TE, while also being the team's best special teamer and an emergency line-backer as well. Evan Moore has come along nicely, but there just isn't room on the 53 man roster for him. He's got one more year left of eligibility for the practice squad, so if he makes it through waivers, expect him to end up there.

Offensive Linemen

Who they'll keep: Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, Josh Sitton, Allen Barbre, Scott Wells, Breno Giacomini, T.J. Lang, Jamon Meredith

Who they'll cut: Tony Moll, Dane Randolph, Evan Dietrich-Smith, Andrew Hartline

The shakedown: This decision was made a little easier by the release of Duke Preston, a bit of a shocker. Preston, although he hadn't really made any push to crack the starting 5, appeared to be a reliable and versatile back-up. Apparently not.

With Preston out of the picture, I think a spot opens up for Jamon Meredith, an athletic freak who fell to the fifth round in the draft for "character issues." Don't get on Steve Spurrier's bad-side, or he'll make you go 3 rounds lower than your talent merits.

Of course, the most notable player to be on my "cut list" is Moll, who has started 18 games with the Packers. However, Moll has regressed dramatically in my eyes, and has been surpassed in value by rookie Lang and second year man Giacomini. I think the Packers would rather keep Meredith and cut Moll than run the risk of losing Meredith to waivers before they could sign him to the practice squad.

With regards to other guys I'm predicting to get cut, they're all potential practice squaders, given their youth.

And, as Brandon said yesterday, releasing Preston is almost a surefire signal that Wells is not going to be shopped around.

Defensive Line

Who they'll keep: Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly, Jarius Wynn (Justin Harrell on IR)

Who they'll cut: Michael Montgomery, Ronald Talley, Alfred Malone, Dean Muhtadi, Anthony Toribio

The shakedown: Although Montgomery has appeared to transition to the 3-4 end position acceptably, I don't think Green Bay sees him as any kind of long term option there. Enter Wynn, who although a bit undersized for the position himself, has been a better than expected performer in training camp.

Only keeping 5 defensive linemen may seem like far too few, but do remember we're playing the 3-4. Additionally, when we do go the nickel package with a four man front, Kampman and Thompson can be considered as d-linemen, as they'll be playing with a hand on the ground as ends. So think of it as 5 +.5 +.5.

Of the rookies cut, at least one of them is bound to practice squad-ed, although the Packers may look for discards from other teams. Really, the only one of them I've heard positive things about has been Talley, a nicely sized DE out of Delaware.

Linebackers

Who they'll keep: Aaron Kampman, Nick Barnett, AJ Hawk, Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar, Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Jeremy Thompson, Brandon Jones

Who they'll cut: Cyril Obiozor, Stryker Sulak, Danny Lansanah

The shakedown: Easily the Packers deepest position, they have some solid starters and some really talented guys backing them up. The competition within this position group is going to be intense, as they have probably 8 guys with starting ability. Bishop and Chillar have stolen the headlines at camp and are seriously threatening to take reps away from Barnett and Hawk. Poppinga, who I thought would not survive the transition to the new defense, appears poised to start. Although that could simply be posturing if the Pack decide to deal him, which I think remains a possibility.

Thompson started training camp as the odds on favorite to be the starter at ROLB, but injuries have held him back. Speaking of, Jones has rebounded quite nicely from his and is making a push to make the 53 man roster. His ability on special teams will probably be the deciding factor.

Obiozor has been an intriguing player thus far and a bit of LB coach Kevin Green's project. I think he's got great athleticism and some real potential, but he's too raw at this point to make the 53 man cut. However, the undrafted rookie is probably a practice squad lock if he makes it through waiver frenzy.

Sulak was a 6th round pick, but got cut by the Raiders even before camp started, a very rare occurrence indeed. If Obiozor isn't an option to place on the 8-man practice squad, the Pack may consider keeping Sulak on to take a longer look at him.

Secondary:

Who they'll keep: Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Nick Collins, Atari Bigby, Tramon Williams, Anthony Smith, Jarret Bush, Will Blackmon, Pat Lee, Brandon Underwood (Aaron Rouse on IR)

Who they'll cut: Charlie Peprah, Joe Porter, Trevor Ford

The shakedown: Woodson, Harris, Collins, Bigby, and Williams are clear keepers. The solid play of free-agent acquisition Smith will land him a spot, while also placing Rouse on the IR after he suffered what may be a partially torn hamstring. Blackmon will make the team on return abilities alone, while Bush will (unfortunately) be back due to his solid special teams play. And Underwood will make the cut due to the uncertain health of dime back Lee.

Specialists:

Who they'll keep: Mason Crosby, Brett Goode, Jeremy Kapinos

Who they'll cut: Durant Brooks

The shakedown: Easiest one yet: Brooks is out with a hip flexor and Kapinos has punted well in his absence. A sure way to lose a punting competition is to miss several days with an injury while your opponent makes his case.

Well there it is, my predicted Packer's 53 man roster after all cuts are made. Let me hear some feedback.

Poll
OK. Be both brutally honest, yet sensitive to my feelings. How were my picks?
Glorious. I didn't disagree with anything you said.
261 votes
Pretty spot on. I only disagreed with a few of your picks.
830 votes
Hit or miss. Some good calls, but I was scratching my head on others.
51 votes
Horrible. Can't say I really agree with any of that garbage you just spent 3 hours typing.
12 votes

1154 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments |

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Comments

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clicked bottom one by mistake, my bad

by stonewall12345678 on Aug 26, 2009 9:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My differences

RB: They won’t keep Wynn and Sutton. Although I don’t know which one they’ll keep.
FB: Kuhn will stay over Johnson. Kuhn’s played better and probably better on special teams too.
TE: I don’t think Havner will stay. He’s destined for the practice squad again.
OL: They’ll use one of the spots I just opened up for Tony Moll. He’ll stay.
DL: I opened up a spot for Michael Montgomery. I think he’d beat out Wynn if there was only one spot for the both of them.

by Brandon on Aug 26, 2009 11:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Brandon.

Responses
RB: If they choose to keep just 3 backs, then yah, they’ll take Wynn and hope Sutton lands on the practice squad
FB: Hmm… I don’t see Johnson being cut. He is a different type of fullback than Kuhn or Hall, a real blaster they need up the middle. He’s got to much potential to go IMO.
TE: So will they only keep 2? I think Havner beats Morre b/c of his special teams contributions.
OL: Wouldn’t surprise me if they kept him. But i hope not at the expense of Meredith.
DL: Yah, Montgomery may have the edge. But i really don’t see him in GB after this year.

What about the rest of you?

"stay (green and) gold"

by Green and Bold on Aug 27, 2009 1:13 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I would rather take Montgomery over Bush if possible. That or trade Wynn for a draft pick.

by Phoenix138 on Aug 27, 2009 2:03 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Blah

I’d rather trade Bush for a bag of pretzels…

by Smeefers on Aug 27, 2009 5:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Our rookie class is making this way harder than it should be. I think Brad Jones makes the team. Sutton can make it with a solid performance with the first team tomorrow night but I think they’ll want to hang on to Deshawn Wynn as well. No chance of Quinn Johnson getting cut to keep two identical players.

Bush should definitely be cut. He could make every tackle on special teams and still not be worth his holding and interference penalties. Keep Underwood, cut Bush. Rouse on IR is no better than a guess, so at this point he’s got a spot.

by theisman's leg on Aug 27, 2009 8:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Also, I’d cut Brohm and go with just 2 QBs, with Ruvell Martin as the emergency option. If things get that bad, call up Jeff George.

by theisman's leg on Aug 27, 2009 8:41 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't cut Brohm

But a good argument to keep Martin over Swain, Harris, et al, is that he is the emergency QB, and 3rd holder.

by grant76 on Aug 27, 2009 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to argue with those

Seems like every year there is a curveball where someone gets cut that you really weren’t expecting.

I think Havner is in, though he should also earn to long snap to free up another position (joking, sort of)

If Harrell can play this year, then that creates a (good) problem, though you have to wonder if they will just cut their losses with him even if he looks healthy.

We are probably overvaluing our 3rd-5th running backs, but its possible that one or two of our fringe guys could get traded.

I also think that Johnson is kept and Kuhn is probably out. He is also a trade possibilty I suppose. Maybe trade him for a shiny new punter.

by grant76 on Aug 27, 2009 8:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Close but no cigar

I think they keep Porter (he was a 1st teamer on ST this week) and put P. Lee on IR. They keep Montgomery and Lansanah by trading Hawk and only keeping 3 RB’s.
(Sutton if he can handle the blitz pickup this week or Wynn if Sutton fails). They may keep Peprah instead of Underwood.

 I’ll be optimistic and say they get a 7th round pick for Moll.

by BubbaOne on Aug 27, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not a bad prediction

I think it was pretty spot on…… I like keeping Sutton and seeing what he could do. I also believe Kuhn is gone.

OL is tough spot…. If they like Meredith alot I would try to trade Moll now. Meredith has the athleticism to play left tackle in the future which the Packers need.

WR spots area done deal. Nobody I think has really challenged Martin.

Havner makes it as 3rd TE and LB and ST stud.

Wynn vs Montgomery will be an interesting battle. My thinking is they go with Montgomery and try to stash Wynn on the Practice squad.

LB’s look good. I really hope both Sulak and Oziobor make it to the Practice Squad. They both have great potential. This is the spot where a trade could definitely happen. (Hawk? Bishop?)

DB’s are pretty set…. Depends on Rouse and his hammy. If he is on active roster than Underwood gets cut and hope he makes it to practice squad. I am also of the opinion that Bush should have been cut 2 years ago but I bet he and his penalty a game still makes it. Lee gets a pass becuase of where he was drafted to keep his career going but it depends on health… if he gets IR’ed then Underwood is back on over Peprah I believe. Porter doesn’t make the team and I don’t think he is practice squad eligible.

ST – Done deal….. unless it’s a P pickup off the waiver wire. Kapinos gets the job becuase Brooks is injured. Why don’t we jusy keep the Punters we develop instead of letting them get away (Hentrich, Bidwell, Ryan).

That is my two cents!

Steve
Montana’s #1 Packer Fan

by mtpackfan on Aug 27, 2009 1:42 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If you were implying Desmond Bishop might be on the trading block

I really don’t see it happening.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Aug 27, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

nor do i

especially with barnett coming off a knee injury and aj hawk under-performing….who knows, Bishop and Chillar could be our starting ILBs next year

"stay (green and) gold"

by Green and Bold on Aug 27, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sutton

Presuming that you are right about Lumpkin, and I now think that you are, it seems that Sutton is in a situation simalae to that of Ryan Grant two years ago.
If the Packers decide not to keep four HBs, then perhaps we could trade him.
Although, as an undrafted rookie, he probably wouldn’t bring more than a seventh round pick.

The glass is more than half-full.

by NorthStarr on Aug 27, 2009 11:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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