Matchup: Packers Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
by Brandon on Jan 6, 2010 7:00 AM CST
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintHow does the Green Bay Packers' pass offense compare to the Cardinals' pass defense?
| NFL.com | Rank |
|---|---|
| Packers Pass Offense | 7 |
| Cardinals Pass Defense | 23 |
| Football Outsiders | Rank |
|---|---|
| Packers Pass Offense | 9 |
| Cardinals Pass Defense | 12 |
I've been using the official NFL rankings (based on yardage) most of this season, but the rankings from Football Outsiders are more interesting.
Fun Fact: While QB Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 50 times this season, he's only been sacked 9 times in the last 7 games. What happened? In the last 7 games, veteran tackles LT Chad Clifton and RT Mark Tauscher have been healthy and started all 7 games.
The complete analysis is after the jump.
I was listening to the Aaron Schatz on the BS report and one of the many great points he made was that the Cardinals aren't especially good in any one area. And that appears to be the case as they rank just above average in pass defense.
The official NFL stats are actually more favorable to the Cardinals, showing they forced 21 INTs and held opposing QBs to only a 76.4 QB rating. They rank only 23rd (based on yardage) according to the NFL because their opponents have attempted 593 passes against them this season (2nd most behind the Titans). Football Outsiders actually pushes them down somewhat because they've played against a collection of some of the worst QBs in the NFL this season including all 6 divisional games (49ers, Rams, Seahawks) plus games against the Lions, Bears, and Panthers. The best QB they faced at home this season was QB Peyton Manning and he threw for 379 yards and 4 TDs.
QB Aaron Rodgers finished the season as one of five QBs with a QB rating of over 100 (103.2). So then why is he ranked 9th by FO? The short answer is strength of schedule. He didn't face any of the Top 5 pass defenses this season (Jets, Panthers, Bills, Broncos, and Eagles) and played five games against four of the five worst pass defenses in the NFL (Lions, Seahawks, Browns, and Rams). The only bad pass defense he missed was the NFL's worst Jaguars. According to Football Outsiders, he's the lowest rated QB who threw for over 4000 yards. The best pass defenses he faced on the road all season were the Steelers (No. 13 according to FO) and he did just fine against them (383 yards and 3 TDs), and the Cardinals (No. 12) last week (235 yards and 1 TD).
What does it all mean? Rodgers hasn't had a bad game since the offensive tackle situation settled down and the revolving door otherwise known as RT Allen Barbre was planted firmly to the bench. His worst game in the last 7 weeks was the game against the Ravens (No. 7 best pass defense according to Football Outsiders) when he threw for 263 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. And that was on a freezing cold Monday night game at Lambeau when neither QB had any accuracy on their deep passes. And I don't expect the conditions will be the same in Arizona, under a closed roof, on a Sunday afternoon. What it means is that he'll be able throw against the Cardinals and the only question is whether they can hold him to under 300 yards and 3 TDs.
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I think this is part of why I don’t fear the Cards D. Their offense is scary as crap but honestly their D has one of the easiest schedules out there. They really have only faced one very good QB all year (outside of the Packer game last week) and he torched them. I think Rodgers can torch them too. They have a couple good playmakers in Wilson and DRC but nothing we haven’t seen throughout this year. Hopefully our D can tighten up some against the pass and this should be a nice victory to hang our hats on to prepare us for the offensive assault that awaits in week 2.
That's because they had kindergartners playing
Just ask any Cardinals fan.
Well Michael Adams is short but he’s still a couple feet taller than a kindergardener. The lack of quality depth in the secondary was clearly exposed though. The Cardinals have 2 rookies in Toler (CB) and Johnson (S) that hopefully will develop. Adams can’t match up with any Packer receiver as was seen last sunday. DRC was injured, FS Rolle didn’t even suit up and Wilson didn’t hardly play. The secondary will be entirely different next sunday.
Couldn't agree more Trevor
The Cards are gonna have to outscore the Packers to win and I don’t think they can. Plus the Cards have much more success if they run for over 100 yards than when they don’t and I give them a 5% chance of putting up over 100 yards on this Packers run defense especially with Pickett back.
I still think this game can go either way but I’m giving the Packers the edge because I think the Packers can play good but not great and still win, and I think the Cards need to play great on offense and defense if they want to win.
Campbell's been a big part
of the Cardinals pass rush and he’s gonna have a cast on his hand. Imagine the disadvantage Jenkins or Matthews would have if they had to wear a hard cast on Sunday. I think Campbell’s injury might be more important than Boldin’s if Campbell can’t rush as effectively as he’s used to. Give Rodgers time and he will light up their secondary.
Campbell
You are spot on in regards to Campbell. Playing w/ a cast will limit him alot. DL need to be able to grab and pull to get free of blockers. He won’t be able to do that w/ one hand! He will affect thier run D AND pass rush. DRC is thier lock down type CB and a really good young player. If he is limited or not at full strength, he’ll have trouble staying on DD or Jennings.
The Boldin injury isn’t as much of a blow to them. Cards are 8-1 over past couple years when Boldin doesn’t play.
Injuries on D for the Cards tip this game more in favor of Pack. I thought they would win either way, but it makes it more likely they win!
Rodgers Ranked 9th by FO
One other reason that FO has been hard on Rodgers compared to other top end QB’s is that their stats also take into account sacks and fumbles when judging QB’s, unlike the traditional QB ranking.
Rodgers has dropped 7 balls on the field, more than any QB ranked higher than him save Brees (8). He is also the most sacked QB in the league and according to FO each sack or aborted snap counts as an attempted pass.
We’re all hoping that neither of those issues will be a problem this post season.
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