Matchup: Packers Run Offense vs. Cardinals Run Defense
by Brandon on Jan 6, 2010 12:00 PM CST
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintHow does the Green Bay Packers' run offense compare to the Cardinals' run defense?
| NFL.com | Rank |
|---|---|
| Packers Run Offense | 14 |
| Cardinals Run Defense | 17 |
| Football Outsiders | Rank |
|---|---|
| Packers Run Offense | 2 |
| Cardinals Run Defense | 14 |
I've been using the official NFL rankings (based on yardage) most of this season, but the rankings from Football Outsiders are more interesting.
Fun Fact: Just as QB Aaron Rodgers has benefited over the past 7 weeks from the healthy return of veteran tackles LT Chad Clifton and RT Mark Tauscher, RB Ryan Grant has done so too. Over the last 7 games, since the Packers' offensive line was finally together, Grant has run for 553 yards (4.85 yards/carry) and scored 7 TDs.
The complete analysis is after the jump.
I was listening to the Aaron Schatz on the BS report and one of the many great points he made was that the Cardinals aren't especially good in any one area. And again that appears to be the case as they rank just above average in run defense.
The Cardinals' run defense isn't all that different whether you look at the NFL or Football Outsiders rankings. Actually the Football Outsiders rankings are probably too favorable and gave them a bump up after holding the No. 2 run offense (the Packers) to only 109 yards on 34 carries (3.2 yards/carry) last week. RB Ryan Grant only had 11 carries, so most of those 34 came after the backups (including the entire Packers' O-line) took over and they were just trying to run the clock out. Overall the Cardinals allowed 4.5 yards/carry this season which is 5th worst in the NFL, and they've allowed 6 different running backs to go over 100 yards in a game against them. Grant had 11 carries for 51 yards (4.6 yards/carry) with 1 TD in limited action against the Cardinals' starting defense, which is in line with the Cardinals' season average.
Is Grant really the No. 2 back (according to Football Outsiders) in the league this season? Well they say so and his basic stats are very good (1253 yards, 4.4/carry, and 11 TDs). But FO's stats love him for two other reasons: no recorded fumbles, and he's played against some pretty tough run defenses. He didn't have big games against the Vikings or the Ravens, but he ran well against the 49ers and scored 3 TDs in week 15 and 16 vs. two good run defenses (Steelers and Seahawks). He's also gotten better over the last 7 weeks, as mentioned above the jump, and only had two bad games: inexplicably against the Lions on Thanksgiving and understandably against the Ravens' No. 4 best run defense.
What does it all mean? The Packers can run against the Cardinals. Last Sunday, the Cardinals didn't show the Packers anything on offense, or any different looks on defense, but the Packers' starting offensive line did a good job at controlling the line of scrimmage and giving Grant room to run early in the game against the Cardinals' starting defensive line. Also, the Cardinals could be without their big DE Calais Campbell who broke his thumb last week and had surgery on Monday. Losing him would be the Packers' equivalent of losing DE Cullen Jenkins. The Cardinals will be hard pressed to hold Grant to under 4.5 yards/carry or without a TD run, and the only thing holding him back might be the game plan if Mike McCarthy decides to go pass heavy.
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Cullen Jenkins is equivalent to Calais Campbell
I would have to respectfully disagree. I commend you for the post but I would disagree on your assumption that Calais Campbell and Cullen Jenkins have the same impact in a game. Calais is a primarily pass rushing defensive end while Cullen Jenkins essentially plays a different position because he plays in the 3-4. Although Calais is a rangy defensive end, he does not have the impact in the run game that Cullen Jenkins has. On the flip side, Jenkins does not have the impact on the pass game that Calais has
What is it based on?
On the flip side, Jenkins does not have the impact on the pass game that Calais has
If were talking about Jenkins playing 3-4 DE and Campbell playing at DE in a four man front then Campbell has a greater chance to have an impact rushing than Jenkins, but Jenkins overall is a better pass rusher and run stuffer imo.
I think the more accurate comparison would be Jenkins and Dockett. Both players can be disruptive at DT and DE. I know earlier in the season some analysts were saying Jenkins is Darnell Dockett without all the fan fair.
Jenkins sack numbers have never been there in part because early in his career he was playing DT, the last couple years when playing 4-3 DE he was hurt, and now he’s play 3-4 DE, but when he’s healthy and it’s his turn to rush the passer, he’s an absolute beast.
I know they run a 3-4
But as Ryan Stern mentioned, I’ve seen a few Cardinals games this season and Campbell has rushed from the edge (DE spot in a four man front) a good amount of times. He doesn’t always just chuck it up directly over the tackles or between a tackle and guard, they use him to come of the edge enough.
I like Football Outsiders..
but sometimes their stats don’t meet the sniff test.
ie. Grant as the #2 running back and Rodgers as the #9 quarterback.
agreed, but I am very pleased with Grants production.
I’m sorry Ryan Grant for doubting you back in the 3rd week.
Charles Woodson for NFL Defensive MVP.
Well
The problem with Ryan Grant, and we can throw Bigby in here to, is that both of them seem so suspect the first 10 weeks of every season and they both seem to turn it on the last month +.
It’s almost like the Packers need a different RB and SS until December and then they can unleash Grant and Bigby. I don’t get it but it seems like the norm with those two.
I think
Ball control, smash mouth between the tackles rushing from Green Bay is going to be the key to this game.
If we go pass-heavy, I’m going to get worried. I don’t even like Grant that much, but I think he’s the key to victory here.
Depends on DRC
If DRC is out for the Cardinals there is no way McCarthy will just use up clock and pound the ball because he knows Rodgers will tear up Adams and whoever is moved up to nickel CB.
If the Cards defense was fully healthy I’d agree with you that the Packers could really put the Cards away by controlling the clock and pounding them, but there is a very slim chance that the Cardinals could outscore the Packers if DRC is out on defense and Boldin is out on offense.
Cardinals aren't especially good in any one area?
Was this comment in reference specifically to the defense? The Cardinals have the number one red zone offense.
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