Matchup: Packers Pass Defense vs. Cardinals Pass Offense
by Brandon on Jan 7, 2010 7:00 AM CST
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintHow does the Green Bay Packers' pass defense compare to the Cardinals' pass offense?
| NFL.com | Rank |
|---|---|
| Packers Pass Defense | 5 |
| Cardinals Pass Offense | 12 |
| Football Outsiders | Rank |
|---|---|
| Packers Pass Defense | 6 |
| Cardinals Pass Offense | 14 |
The rankings are pretty similar either way you look at it.
Fun Fact: QB Kurt Warner has a QB rating of 93.2 this season. But he's piled up big stats against a bunch of bad pass defenses. He's had a QB rating of over 100 in 8 games this season, and the best of any of those pass defenses was the Texans, which according to Football Outsiders, has the 18th best pass defense this season. He's only faced two top 10 pass defenses (not including the Packers last week, he's also faced the 49ers twice and the Panthers once) and in those 3 games his QB rating has been 67.2 (1 TD, 2 INT), 47.8 (2 TD, 5 INT), and 44.9 (0 TD, 2 INT).
The complete analysis is after the jump.
If the Cardinals are going to beat the Packers, it's going to be through the air.
The Packers' last loss was in Pittsburgh when QB Ben Roethlisberger went wild for 503 yards and 3 TDs. He did it by spreading the ball around, and beating the weaker members of the Packers' pass coverage (CB Jarrett Bush, CB Josh Bell, and LB A.J. Hawk).
One reason why the Steelers were so successful is that they have several great receivers. According to Football Outsiders, WRs Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Mike Wallace are all in the Top 15 wide receivers of 2009, and TE Heath Miller is the 8th best tight end. The problem for the Cardinals is that their receivers have been nowhere near as good as the Steelers. WR Larry Fitzgerald has had another great season (FO rank: No. 11), while WR Steve Breaston has been good (FO rank: No. 27), and WR Anquan Boldin has struggled (FO rank: No. 38).
A high ankle sprain was a major problem for Boldin, but he's gotten better later in the season as that has healed. Unfortunately for him he now has another high ankle sprain that he suffered last week. The Cardinals' tight ends have done nothing as receivers this season. Assuming Boldin is out, or is hobbling around like he did earlier in the season, the Packers can put CB Charles Woodson on Fitzgerald, CB Tramon Williams on Breaston, and leave the Cardinals looking for anybody else to carry the offensive load. Woodson and Williams won't shut Fitzgerald and Breaston down completely, but they aren't going to run wild on them like the Steelers did.
The loss of Boldin presents another problem for the Cardinals. The last time Warner had a good day passing against a team that wasn't the Rams was in week 13 against the Vikings. Comparing the Packers' pass defense (FO rank: No. 6) to the Vikings (FO rank: No. 22) isn't a fair comparison, but let's move on to how Warner managed to throw for 285 yards and 3 TDs against the Vikings. Of those 285 yards, 241 yards were on passes to either Fitzgerald or Boldin. And all 3 TD passes went to them. When the Cardinals' pass offense is working, it's because Warner is leaning heavily on his top 2 receivers.
If Boldin is out (or limping) and Fitzgerald is covered by Woodson, Warner will have few options. The hope might be that Breaston can fill the gap, but despite the generous ranking by Football Outsiders, he's had an unimpressive season. All 3 of his TD passes have come against two bad pass defenses (the Bears and Seahawks), and outside of a 45 yard reception against the Rams in week 16, he's done very little over the last 7 games.
Also, the Packers didn't have much trouble pressuring the Cardinals' QBs last week, in part because the Cardinals' have replaced injured starting LT Mike Gandy with veteran journeyman OL Jeremy Bridges.
Meanwhile the Packers' pass defense has been playing very well down the stretch. In the 6 games since CB Al Harris and LB Aaron Kampman were lost for the season with ACL tears, the Packers' have held 3 different QBs (Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, and Matt Hasselbeck) to QB ratings under 40. Only QB Jay Cutler (74.9 QB rating) and Roethlisberger (121.9 QB rating) have been productive against them.
What does it all mean? Unless Boldin's high ankle sprain is healed by Sunday, WR Early Doucet becomes Mike Wallace, and Jeremy Bridges can block LB Clay Matthews one-on-one, I don't see how the Cardinals can produce enough passing yards and TDs to outscore the Packers. If both teams were 100% healthy, the Cardinals could provide a challenge (if everyone was healthy the Packers would have their top cover corner and top pass rusher back too), but the Packers could still beat them. With all these injuries, I don't see how the Cardinals can beat them.
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"I don't see how the Cardinals can beat them"?
Wow, I didn’t see that last line coming. I’m all for confidence, but you’re skirting the realm of hubris here.
I’m worried about this game. I hate playing teams that think they’re down, or underdogs, or have something to prove… it hardly ends well. We’ve struggled against teams that pass well, particularly spread offenses, and I believe AZ will lean on their “unknowns”. It’s to be decided still if they can produce more than the Packers can, which I’m inclined to think they can’t. But Warner will not want to take sacks, and risk another concussion so I’m hoping we can create INT’s with pressure or at least “major facemask” penalties on the left side. I’d like to see the Packers run the hell out of the ball, too…
"I don't know how a guy gets single covered in that situation when you're dropping eight men," Tony Dungy, 12/20/09
by PackaCracka on Jan 7, 2010 9:41 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Thats why games are played
…if it were all about paper numbers, would could have skipped the season and just jumped right into the playoffs!
Totally agree
I’m hoping for a Packers win like whoa, but let’s not forget these are the same Cardinals no one took any stock in last year who became the defending NFC champs.
"Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Vince Lombardi
Pass D
I think the Pack Pass D will fare pretty well vs the Cards. Woodson should be on Fitz most of if not ALL game! Breaston is very average and while he had a good year last year, he has done next to nothing this year. I think I would take both Jones and Nelson over Breaston!!! On the surface, it seems the loss of Boldin should hurt the Cards alot, but they are like 8-1 in games he’s missed in the past couple years.
Roethlesberger lit the Pack up by spreading them out w/ speed recievers and Ward underneath. Cards dont have the same type of speed as Holmes and Wallace. So to compare them doesn’t work. Woodson probably matches up better w/ Fitz than he did vs Holmes.
Also remember that Roethlesberger goes against our Defense EVERY DAY in practice!!! He knows EXACTLY how to attack it! Thats a HUGE advantage that Warner won’t share. Cards D has move more towards a true 34 D, but its still different than the D run by the Pack and Steelers!!!
I think Breaston is better than “very average”…we certainly don’t want to underestimate him. If Boldin is in fact out though, I think Tramon can hang with him. If they lose Boldin for the game, I think it really hurts their chances offensively.
Breaston
I live in Phx, and have watched almost all of the Cards games besides ALL the Packer games. Last year Breaston took some teams by surprise, but this year he has been very average. I haven’t seen him making many plays to help the Cards win, not many if any game changiing plays. He is what he is… A Very Average WR. Its not underestimating him, its just true!
Breaston
He can make plays and would be a number two receiver on any other team than the Cardinals. I beleive the Cardinals have won every game that Boldin hasn;t played in, in the last two seasons.
Without Boldin; Breaston
Johnny V’ of KTAR radio in Phoenix said that the Cards are 7-3 the last few seasons without Boldin. That’s a solid record but it definitely doesn’t constitute winning every game without him.
In regards to Breaston, I do believe he is a good receiver and could be a #2 on some teams but your opinion that he would be the #2 on every team in the NFL is a pretty homerish opinion. He had 700 yards and 3 TD’s this season, starting half of the games and playing a majority of the snaps.
He definitely wouldn’t be a #2 on the Packers with Jennings and Driver both having over 1,000 yards again. And even though I think Breaston is better than James Jones, I think Jordy Nelson will be better than Breaston when all is said and done but that’s just my homerish opinion as well. Just off the top of my head, I would say that there are 2-3 teams where Breaston would be the 4th receiver because there are 3 better, and about 7-8 teams where he would be the third receiver because there are 2 better.
jared bush
keep bush on the sidelines or special teams not playing defense !!! every time you hear his name mentioned on defense its for getting burned!!!!!
I don't like Bush either
But you have to admit that he’s improved with more playing time. He actually is pretty average in coverage, however his problem continues to be making a play on the ball when it’s in the air. He either slips or lets up right when the ball is getting to him. I think the experience he’s getting is slowly but surely helping out his ball skills. At least we can hope.
Agreed
Bush seems to have the speed and cover skills, but just doesn’t seem to have the ball awareness that you’d like a CB to have. That is the the kind of the thing that can be taught – I think.
My question is this: If the Arizona offense is so potent, why does FO rank them at #14? Did Warner miss some games? Have they been inconsistent? I don’t ask it as a slam, I just don’t know.
They rank just behind Atlanta and just ahead of Denver. Those teams are good passing offenses but not exactly top tier.
They’ve been really off and on. They were deadly against the Vikings, and have been great a few other times but they have struggled a lot this season too.
by packallday555 on Jan 7, 2010 4:13 PM CST up reply actions
Cards Offense
My question is this: If the Arizona offense is so potent, why does FO rank them at #14? Did Warner miss some games? Have they been inconsistent? I don’t ask it as a slam, I just don’t know.
The Cards “offensive prowess” is currently based upon reputation. Warner was at the helm of the greatest show on turf with Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and now he’s throwing to Fitzgerald and Boldin. Add to that the fact that the Cards burned through the playoffs last year and Fitz just gave every defense fits (what stupid pun lol).
The fact of the matter is that the Cards have a crappy run game and the Packers have the best run defense so unless Wells breaks a 50 yard run, the Cards aren’t gonna come close to 100 yards rushing imo. The Cards win when they rush well and they’re average when they don’t so that could be very telling in this matchup. Also, Warner has killed bad pass defenses but has really struggled against good one’s so that inconsistency, like packallday mentioned, has made that offense statistically average.
The scary thing about the Cards though is that they can break out anytime. They can suck or they can be great (like the Vikings game) so the Pack just has to come out and play better. The Packers have a better defense and a better offense so the facts are they should win, but being a better team and actually winning the game don’t always go hand in hand.
Cardinals run game.
The run game this year is far superior to what they had last year and they made it to the super bowl. It’s not great but calling it crappy may be a bit severe. Beanie Wells has been brought along slowly (as Whisenhunt likes to do with rookies) and has been improving through the season. He has big play potential every down, running or receiving. What the Cardinals don’t have is the best O line. If they pick up a good replacement for Gandy at LT then they could have a potent run game next year.
Warner missed 1 & 1/2 games.
He suffered a concussion toward the end of the 1st half of the first game with the Rams then missed the next game against the Titans. He also had a terrible game against the Panthers throwing up several picks (why the Cards lost the game). Leinert didn’t move the offense that well filling in for Warner. Arizona hasn’t been able to connect on many long passes this year, another factor in the ratings.
Where they have been great is in the red zone. They have the best red zone offense in the league. That is a large part of why they are considered so potent, along with what they achieved in last year’s playoffs. The potential for them to blow up a defense is always right there.
Exactly. As much as I hate to admit it, most of the time he is actually in good position in coverage most of the time. He just ALWAYS has his back to the Qb, and obviously if you can’t see the ball, you can’t make a play on it. He’ll struggle to cover Boldin but it’ll help that Boldin has a high ankle sprain.
by packallday555 on Jan 7, 2010 4:12 PM CST up reply actions
Nice Analysis Brandon
Anything can happen in the playoffs and the Cards could come out like last year and stick it to the Packers but statistically anyway, the Packers should win this game. Will they? I think so. Can the Cards win this game though? Definitely.
Everything points to the Packers winning again but anything can happen especially in Arizona. I still think the Packers have to play below their average and the Cards have to play above their average for the Cards to win, but it could happen.
What does it all mean? Unless Boldin’s high ankle sprain is healed by Sunday, WR Early Doucet becomes Mike Wallace, and Jeremy Bridges can block LB Clay Matthews one-on-one, I don’t see how the Cardinals can produce enough passing yards and TDs to outscore the Packers. If both teams were 100% healthy, the Cardinals could provide a challenge (if everyone was healthy the Packers would have their top cover corner and top pass rusher back too), but the Packers could still beat them. With all these injuries, I don’t see how the Cardinals can beat them.
This paragraph sums up why I think we should win this game. Bridges really didn’t do well against Matthews, and even their RT struggled against Jones. For that reason, plus having Boldin not at 100%, and the fact that Warner can’t really scramble out of things I just don’t see how our pass defense gets lit up like it did against the Steelers.
Woodson vs. Fitzgerald The Matchup of the Day
Greetings Packers fans. My old neighbor, Devin Frischknecht, is going to be good for you guys in the future. For now, I think this matchup will be excellent. I want to see Woodson matched up against Fitzgerald. May the best team win! I think that this matchup will be key in the outcome. Whoever wins this team will make quick work of the Vikings I hope, especially if it’s you guys.
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Jan 7, 2010 6:28 PM CST reply actions
*game
rather than team, sorry. Incidentally, I take great pride in the fact that my Italian heritage comes from Lombardy!
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Jan 7, 2010 6:29 PM CST reply actions
Point spread
The Cardinals were 3 point favorites last week and 2 point favorites this week. Is Curt Warner really worth 25 points?
packer wannabe http://maxsportsplus.com
This is the aspect of the game that scares me
while Williams has improved over the course of the year, Jared Bush consistently get’s beat. If the cards are going to have any chance, this is the aspect where they need to dominate.
This is the reason that I feel the pack needs to go get a great corner early in the draft. coughPatrick Robinsoncough
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Warner's "Bloated" Stats
Brandon – nice article. You break down Warner’s QB Rating in Fun Fact to show the feasting he did on weaker teams and the struggles he had against top ranked teams. This is true for Warner, especially against the top defenses he faced. The feasting over the weaker teams however, can be made against not only Warner, but Rodgers or any other QB.
Rodgers had a QB rating over 100 10 times this season. Half of those were against the following teams (with their rankings): Rams – 29th, Browns – 30th, Seahawks – 31st, and Detroit – 32nd (2x v Det). Two were against the Vikings – 27th in QB rating against, and one against Pittsburgh – 15th in QB rating. The other two? Last week at AZ and against SF (ranked 8th). So, did Warner feast on good teams? Yup. Just like every other QB worth their salt.
The stats I would look at if I were a Packer fan would be these (in no particular order) –
1. Warner’s 8-3 career record in the playoffs.
2. Warner’s stat breakdown in game situations, especially by deficit margin. To summarize, the best chance the Packers have is to get a big lead early (behind by 9-16 points) – that is where Warner struggles (45.6 QB rating, 1 TD, 6 INT’s) because the play-action is out of play (where he posts above a 115 QB rating).
3. His red-zone QB rating of 109.8.
In short, stats can be bent and pushed and pulled to make any point or argument. The long end of it is this: this will be a close game with a lower score than I think most would imagine. I am hopeful my Cards will pull it out, but must say, the only team in the NFC that I didn’t want to face in the playoffs was the Packers.
Good luck on Sunday.
by Roy Green was here on Jan 8, 2010 11:07 AM CST reply actions
Good points man. I think this one will be much closer, and could very well come down to who has the ball last.
by packallday555 on Jan 8, 2010 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
BUT!
There is a big difference here. You only looked at the part where he talked about his good games against bad pass D’s and you ignored the bad games against good pass D’s. It was only a partial comparison you did.
Against the better D’s Rodgers faced, he still had good QB ratings (for whatever that is worth):
Balt: 87.8
Dal: 91.1
Cincy 83.4
I think that was part of the comparison was then when put up against a tough matchup, Warner didn’t look great this year and that his stats were padded by those cakewalk games (which I get your point that they all are…but some are more than others) Warner’s had some really bad games this year which is really unusual for him. I hope we can keep the pressure up and make him have another.
Great Point
I think you could some up the whole argument by saying Rodgers is more consistent. Although Rodgers might do better against the Browns, he still seems to do well against a good team like the Cowboys as well. Warner on the other hand isn’t that consistent. He could eat up the Browns as well but then he could also throw 3 picks against the Cowboys where Rodgers still remains fairly consistent.
Outside of my "low score" prediction...
I think I was dead on. Warner is a beast in the playoffs, deadly in the red zone, and when he has a lead – lights out.
Good game Packer fans – my cardiologist loves Mondays…
by Roy Green was here on Jan 11, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
In Regard To Bloated Stats
No one has good games against good defenses, generally. That’s why they’re good defenses. Nevertheless, in the postseason great teams find a way to get it done. That’s what both the Packers and Cardinals are, great teams!
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Jan 8, 2010 12:31 PM CST reply actions
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