In The Playoffs: Larry Fitzgerald Reigns Supreme
by Brandon on Jan 8, 2010 10:00 AM CST
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintOne X-Factor for the Cardinals is WR Larry Fitzgerald. While he's one of the best during the regular season, and he's been so for a while, he turned it up to 11 during the playoffs last year.
| Game | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Falcons | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| at Panthers | 8 | 166 | 1 |
| vs. Eagles | 9 | 152 | 3 |
| Steelers | 7 | 127 | 2 |
It might not matter if the Green Bay Packers have the better offense and defense overall if Fitzgerald takes over the game. That also makes the likely matchup of CB Charles Woodson vs. Fitzgerald one of the marquee matchups of the playoffs. Based on what I've seen over the past 16 Packer games, I'll take Woodson in that matchup.
In response to my article that QB Kurt Warner has few options outside of Fitzgerald or WR Anquan Boldin, one Cardinals' fan emailed to point out that Warner did just fine without Boldin last year:
The Cardinals were without Boldin until the Super Bowl throughout their entire playoff run and they had no problem winning those 3 games without him.
Actually Boldin did play earlier in the playoffs. And as good as Fitzgerald was, he might have not gotten past the Falcons if it weren't for Boldin. From the NFL.com Falcons at Cardinals game log from last year's first round playoff game:
(9:10) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass short left to 81-A.Boldin for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
That long 2nd quarter TD put the Cardinals up 14-3. The final score was 30-24, so Boldin's TD was the difference in the game. Here's how Warner did in the four playoff games on completions to receivers other than Fitzgerald or Boldin:
| Game | Comp | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Falcons | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| at Panthers | 13 | 54 | 1 |
| vs. Eagles | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| Steelers | 16 | 166 | 1 |
The Cardinals need big games from Fitzgerald and/or Boldin to defeat the Packers.
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Good Call
I know the card’s have a good record without Boldin, but I hate when they pretend like Boldin didn’t play in some games. I’m glad you could set the record straight.
Also, I like the pack’s chance a lot with an injured Boldin.
No not really.
That’s a nice stat line you (the writer) highlighted, but it’s pretty evident both of you didn’t watch the AZ-ATL game (and as a result, the writer didn’t set any record straight). After that play, he tweaked his hamstring and was out the rest of the game. He played less than a quarter and a half (if that). To say the Cards needed him to win the ATL game is foolhardy. Games aren’t decided at the 9min mark of the 2nd quarter. Oh.. and Boldin didn’t play in the CAR game after that even though the Cards smacked CAR on the road.. as a HUGE underdog. (They were underdogs by almost 2 TDs last year.) This game on Sunday will be close, and it can go either way. You Pack fans who think that this game will be a blowout are heavily mistaken. The betting line is close as it is despite “dominating” GB performances in 2 preseason games with the Cards because the Cards are a very good team. They play to the level of their opponents – and they didn’t luck into beating MIN (something that GB has yet to do this year).
by TheOriginalCardsFan on Jan 8, 2010 5:37 PM CST up reply actions
The Cards
Went up 14-3 after the Boldin TD going against a rookie QB in Matt Ryan who actually threw an interception his first pass of the game. Teams play a lot differently when they jump out in front especially against an unproven rookie QB. Rodgers won’t throw a pick his first throw and it would be huge if the Cards even forced one interception because of how consious Rodgers is of protecting the ball.
In regards to the game, the Cardinals could win by 20 points, the Packers could win by 20 points, or someone could kick a FG or a throw a TD pass to win it as time expires, but your assertion that the Packers don’t have the ability to blowout the Cards is false. Both teams can get hot so how do you know that it’s definitely gonna be a close game? You don’t. None of us do. I think the Packers are better and should win but that doesn’t mean they will. Quit making concrete statements already.
So Finally
Just make sure to come back on here after the game on Sunday regardless of who wins. You keep mentioning how last weeks game didn’t matter and the two teams have only played “pre-season” games so I think we can both agree that Sunday’s game does matter. There will be no excuses for anyone (especially since DRC, Rolle, and Campbell are playing and Boldin and Al Harris being out is a wash) come Sunday night so I hope to see you on here sometime, win or lose.
Delusional Fans
The majority of Cardinals fans are delusional when it comes to any thing that pertains to Larry Fitzgerald. When some of these comments are posted you get the idea that Fitz does it all alone. It’s just silly. It is great to be a fan of any franchise. The ability to look at things objectively is what separates the good fans from the “pom pom” and “cheerleader” types who obviously are going to lack the objectivity necessary to see things in a clear and concise manner.
I’ve had to deal with this less than ideal situation all season when it comes Fitz, Matt “Hollywood” Leinart, Urban and others. Boldin is legitimate super star in this league and has made huge contributions to this winning program and it’s just not appreciated when you read some of the kinds of comments like the one above. Here’s what I know, Mike McCarthy’s job got a lot easier when Whisenhunt made the dumb decision to keep Boldin in the game that had no meaning to the overall playoff landscape. It clearly weakens the Cardinals and Boldin’s absence will be missed in this game. Great coaching move that increases the other teams chances to win and possibly end your season. Way to go Whisenhunt.
under radar?
Yes I like a banged up Boldin better than a healthy one,but we still have to be on our game plan as if he were 100%. We have to get to Warner consistantly and early. Also,keeping them off the field can’t hurt. I have been thinking that Ryan Grant is going to be more of a factor. He has been getting stronger and all the focus has been on both teams passing game….
Your right about Grant. I think it’ll be crucial that he is more involved and running the ball effectively. If we can control the clock and keep Warner off the field it would make things much easier on our defense.
by packallday555 on Jan 8, 2010 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
I think their offense
is a bit misleading. Yes, fitzgerald is a big part of their game. But their running back production is impressive. Not in terms of rushing, but in overall production. Yeah, Hightower only has 598 yards rushing, BUT he has 428 yards receiving. To put this in perspective James Jones has 440 yard receiving. So the packers need to be mindful of that “other” receiver. Now, throw a little C.Well’s in the mix with 793 yards rushing and 143 receiving. I expect to see alot of quick short throws from Warner mixed with some screens rather than the “air show” to counter the Packers pressure. The fact that Fitzgerald has 97 receptions for his 1000 yards vs. Jennings with 68 receptions for his 1000 yards tells me that Warner doesn’t do alot of 5 step drops and gets rid of the ball quickly. Course I would like to see a heavy dose of Grant and company to keep him off the field as much as possible.
Bring me Ryan!
in heavy doses please
"I don't know how a guy gets single covered in that situation when you're dropping eight men," Tony Dungy, 12/20/09
I think Woodson can at least slow down Fitzgerald.
But the key here like some have said would be getting pressure on Warner. If Matthews can get to him early and often and make him uncomfortable, I think they’ll do fine.
Not wise to put anyone one on one against Fitz
Especially if Boldin is hurt, I’d expect to see Woodson on Fitz with over the top help and maybe even some inside help. Not to say Woodson isn’t a great cover corner but still it wouldn’t make much sense to single cover their best player on any down. If Warner is spreading it around well to the other WR’s then you can periodically bring blitzes and have safeties sneak down into underneath and intermediate zones while Woodson guards one on one but I’d only resort to those risks if I were McCarthy if I had to. Make someone else beat you.
When Arizona needs offense
they go to a one back, no tight end set. Says so in this article.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jim_trotter/01/06/cards.packers/index.html
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
We had a safety over the top of Fitz this past Sunday with Woodson on him, so I’m sure we’ll do the same this week.
by packallday555 on Jan 8, 2010 4:12 PM CST up reply actions
Stopping Fitz
Woodson will definitely draw Fitz, but the Packer D always has the safeties over the top. It not like years past when they played Press Man w/ little or no help deep! Capers is actually more of a zone cover Coordinator. But w/ the ability of Pack CB to play man he has used that more this year than before. Capers almost always has the safeties deep, unless he needs them to help vs the run. That won’t be the case vs the Cards.
Wood will get deep Safety help, but then so will everyone else… Its just the way Capers likes to play his safeties.
Cloud Coverage
If Boldin is a no go (this becomes increasing likely) the coverage on Fitz becomes more much easier for the Packers. Boldin draws a lot of the underneath coverage especially when Boldin and Fitz are line on the same side of the formation. Certain down and distance situations dictate who gets the double coverage. With Boldin out, there will one be one less player to bracket coverage for. Capers will then be telling the Cards play caller Breaston or Doucet are going to have to beat me by taking away Fitzgerald. Can they? That is the 64,000 dollar question.
Exactly. I love when people comment, and talk football in their comment! Whether or not Breaston or Doucet can be our guys is probably 50-50. They’ll probably beat our guys at times, and at times they won’t. With Boldin though, you know he’ll beat guys 80-90% of the time, and for that reason having him out will definitely hurt your offense.
by packallday555 on Jan 10, 2010 1:10 AM CST up reply actions
Competitive matchup
As easy as it is to just say that the Packers are better in every facet, there are a few things to keep in mind. Not counting last week, the Packers are 2-3 against playoff teams and 0-1 on the road against them. Packers are the “best team in the NFL” when you look at yardage rankings but if you just look at their rankings against playoff teams they are not so good. They dominated the weak opponents on their schedule for the most part.
Vegas has the Cards by 1 point which seems pretty reasonable. I consider the Packers the slightly better team but playing on the road and having an unproven playoff QB against the proven Cards playoff offense puts the edge to Cards IMO.
Packers will lose a close one on the road as the better team against a squad that they could probably beat easily at home.
Go Back
To the Daily Norseman. If you were a Packer fan and you think the Packers will lose then I don’t think anyone would have a problem with that whether they agree or disagree, but you’re a Vikings fan coming on here telling us that the Packers are gonna lose. Nobody wants to hear that.
I’m not gonna go on to the Daily Norseman on Sunday night and tell everybody that I think the Vikings are gonna lose to either the Cards or the Cowboys (if they play the Packers than that’s a different story) so why do you feel the need as a Vikings fan to share with us your thoughts about the Packers losing to the Cards?
And in regards to the Packers being 2-3 against playoff teams; those three losses came the second game of the season and against the Vikings twice during the first half of the season. The Packers are a completely different team since the Tampa Bay loss and every statistic points to that. Plus they’re 3-0 against playoff teams since that TB game and yes I’m counting the Cardinals.
And in regards to the Packers being 2-3 against playoff teams; those three losses came the second game of the season and against the Vikings twice during the first half of the season. The Packers are a completely different team since the Tampa Bay loss and every statistic points to that. Plus they’re 3-0 against playoff teams since that TB game and yes I’m counting the Cardinals.
It’s just ashame that Capers didn’t unleash all his blitzes and different formations early on but I suppose that would have been hard to do when guys are still trying to get accustomed to the new system. After our horrible TB loss, Capers sort of “unleashed” our defense, and if you’ve watched our team since that week 9 or 10 game against Dallas there is no denying we’ve looked like a different team.
Weeks 2-9 Capers called our defense very conservative. It worked against bad teams but it didn’t work against better teams. (Bengals and Vikings) Now maybe if Capers blitzed more against those two teams when we played them our defense would have looked better, or maybe not. Maybe Favre would have carved our blitzes apart but I sure as hell would rather have seen him do that as opposed to us rushing 3, and giving him 5+ seconds to throw nearly every play.
I hope, and think Capers would call a much different game defensively if we played the Vikings again but who knows. If he does though, I think our defense would fare a bit better against their offense. Then when you add to that, that our o-line is much improved from our last 2 games against the Vikes, and that, that their o-line, in particular McKinnie has been relatively average as of late and Matthews has been excellent as of late, I think a third matchup would be a whole new ball game.
I think you came down a little hard on Sand0 though! He presented his opinion in a pretty civil manner, and actually provided some reasons as to why he thinks we’re going to lose. I would much rather read his opinion then some of the other idiot Vikings fans who come over here.
by packallday555 on Jan 8, 2010 9:04 PM CST up reply actions
He certainly couldn’t justify calling the SAME defense against the Vikings again…I would assume we’d see a lot of different stuff out of them!
Haha yeah he definitely couldn’t justify it! I’d assume the same but we all know how Capers gets about blitzes veteran Qb’s.
by packallday555 on Jan 9, 2010 12:39 AM CST up reply actions
You know nothing…enjoy your second round loss to the Cowboys. I can’t wait to see Favre crying into Childress’s shoulders.
Maybe
In the 4th with the Cowboys way ahead, Favre and Childress will have another girl fight on the sidelines, that would be entertaining….
So, here's some advice I wish I woulda got when I was your age: Live every week like it's Shark Week.
I consider the Packers the slightly better team but playing on the road and having an unproven playoff QB against the proven Cards playoff offense puts the edge to Cards IMO.
I think the whole “unproven” Qb thing gets blown a bit out of proportion. You could argue Rodgers was one of the best if not the best Qb in the league this year. He might come out and be nervous his first drive but it’s not like all his ability and talent is just going to disappear because it’s the playoffs.
Packers will lose a close one on the road as the better team against a squad that they could probably beat easily at home.
I agree we could probably beat them relatively easily at home, but playing at Arizona in warm weather helps our offense a ton.
Packers are the "best team in the NFL" when you look at yardage rankings but if you just look at their rankings against playoff teams they are not so good. They dominated the weak opponents on their schedule for the most part.
Yeah, we dominated some weak opponents much like you would expect them too. We’ve also beat some good teams, and played the ones we’ve lost too close. We can’t do anything but beat the teams on our schedule. And in return, the Vikings have beat some good teams but dominated the weak ones on their schedule for the most part.
by packallday555 on Jan 8, 2010 9:13 PM CST up reply actions
One thing missing from this post...
Is perhaps the Pack’s ability to rush the passer. I know it’s a story based on how the Arizona receivers may impact the outcome of the game, but I think that the Pack’s pass rush has a direct effect on how the Cards pass the ball. For instance, if we can consistently get to Warner, the Cards will be forced to abandon the downfield passing game. AND if we can stop the run, it’s a recipe for success.
All I’m saying is that the pass rush may help limit the Cardinals wide receivers potential for a huge game.
Warner is savvy in the pocket, but he is 68 yrs old after all. Get after him, boys!
"I’ll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." -Sheriff Melvin appoints Deputy Braun
Will the Packers Win?
We can speculate as much as we want—-It still boils down to what Packer Defense shows up—The One at Pittsburgh or the one that showed last week in Arizona. Bottom Line!!
I wouldn't read too much into last week's AZ game.
I assure you Warner has more accuracy in this pinky than Leinart does in his entire body. How well the Packers’ D does depends on how well and often they hit Warner. If he’s standing after the game, the Cards win. If not, the Pack moves on. CB play is going to be useless, because Warner is a master at the timing routes w/ his WRs.
by TheOriginalCardsFan on Jan 8, 2010 5:43 PM CST up reply actions
I agree that last week's game was suspect
BUT…
How well the Packers’ D does depends on how well and often they hit Warner. If he’s standing after the game, the Cards win. If not, the Pack moves on.
This game doesn’t completely come down to whether Warner gets sacked or not. I think you’re forgetting that Rodgers is currently a better QB statistically (make sure you read the statistically) than Warner. I think the more accurate statement would be that if the Packers get consistent pressure on Warner the Cards will lose, but if the Packers don’t, it’s gonna be a shootout and the last team with the ball will probably win. You’re giving Warner way more credit than Rodgers in your post.
CB play is going to be useless, because Warner is a master at the timing routes w/ his WRs.
Good offense beats good defense in basketball but not football. If you’ve watched any games with Revis, Asomugha or Woodson in them at CB you would retract your statement. I honestly don’t mean to sound rude, but your post makes Warner out to be the greatest QB in the history of the NFL. CB’s don’t matter, the only way the Packers beat them is if Warner has no time to throw, etc. I think there are 31 teams in the league that would take Rodgers over Warner and I’m talking about right now, not just in the future.
What is Steve Breaston, chopped liver?
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
We
are also talking about a team that has a even worse divison than ours. And a team that got beat by San Fran twice—— I think the cards need to figure out who is going to cover Finley, Driver, Jennings or how to stop Grant from breaking out 20yard runs and just about the time they have that figured out they are going to be like " what are we going to do about Rodgers, he has almost as many rushing yards as Tim Hightower". I would say that the Cards have just about if not more to worry about.
I've never agreed with a..
Turd before,but I agree with you and think we just have too many weapons for a defense like Az. Match ups are always important and they are going to have a lot of trouble with almost everything they try. Special teams may come into play, but I hope not. Packers achilles….
Yeah
I just wanted to pick a funny screen name. Special teams can definetly be the Achilles heel. The only thing that seems to be picking up the slack in that area of or team is our turn over ratio.
WOW you Pack fans are more arrogant than Vikings fans. They said the same crap before the CARDS beat them down this year. No Breston is not chopped liver. He’s a very good WR, sleep on him if you want to. You guys are acting your team is the greatest team ever & the Cards are horrible with no chance to compete. Based on 1 Pre-Season game & a game last week with Warner throwing 6 freaking passes. That useless waste of space Lienert played the whole game, he couldn’t hit the brad side of a barn. Get over yourself!
To the OP, Warner has no problem spreading the ball around. You’re dead wrong saying he only has 2 weapons to throw to. The Cards have won many a game with Boldin either playing at half strength or not at all.
No every team would not take Rogers over Warner now. It’s not all about stats. I’m sick of Kurt getting dissed after everything he’s done in his fabulous career. What has Rogers ever won?? ZIP that’s what. Romo had great stats too, but he sucks when it counts. We’ll see about Rogers.
Arrogant?
Give me a break dude. I’ve been in your forum its the same crap going the other way. All you hear in there is about how the other games mean nothing and blah blah blah. There is plenty of arrogance in there too, not to mention your own arrogance in calling us out. YOu are going to fault us for being high on our own team. The same team that is 7-1 in the last 8 games with their only loss being a last second TD to the STeelers. Oh brother.
I’d like to believe that just about EVERY team would take a 25 year old pro bowl QB who has 2 straight 4000 yard seasons in his 2 years as a QB. If you put Warner on many teams out there you would see a different QB. He’s amazing when he has amazing weapons but less than amazing when he’s got ordinary weapons. I love Warner. I think hes a great QB and an even better man but to say that someone would choose a 38+ year old QB who is probably going to retire in the off season over a pro bowl 25 year old QB is pretty ridiculous. No one in here is DISSING WArner. Show me someone that said he sucks…please.
The Packer fans are arguing based on past experiences and stats and anythign else out there that provides concrete evidence. Until the game is played, that is all there is. Can the Packers lose it? Damn sure they can. I just like the matchups and I feel like they Packers have a great chance in this one. You can think differently and we are happy to hear your arguments but all you came with is that the past games mean nothing and that Leinert is a waste of space.
Haha Rodgers hasn’t had any chances too do anything. We should probably wait more then 2 years to start calling him out for not having done anything don’t you think?
We’re not arrogant, we’ve just seen our team play really well over the last half of the season and things have been clicking on all cylinders for us.
Breaston isn’t chopped liver but there is no question he isn’t close to the player that Boldin is. I get that you guys have won a bunch of games without Boldin, but all you seem to act like it won’t have any effect on your offense, which to be frank is stupid. Him not being at anywhere near 100% will have a huge effect on things. I know Fitz is great but so is Woodson. Am I trying to imply Woodson will shut him down? Of course not, but I do think he will be able to contain him. The bottom line is with Boldin either out or playing hampered, the matchups are much better for us and much more favorable.
by packallday555 on Jan 10, 2010 1:31 AM CST up reply actions
FitzFan , First of all
there has been plenty said of how good the Cards are if you actually read through the posts. My post about the Cards running game above is an example.Secondly you are on our fan page, if you want to hear everything great about the Cards go back to Revenge of the Birds. Or go to Yahoo where Cole and Silver predict a Cards Win. Our team is doing good this year and I am Happy about that. And real football is played outside, not in that friken tent you call a football field
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