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Preview: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

It's time to put the memories of 17 penalties and horrific special teams behind us, and look ahead to next Sunday. And to help with the transition, the winless Detroit Lions come limping into town. And they are literally limping as they could be without as many as four starters on Sunday, and had six players who did not participate in practice on Thursday.

Here are the official stats from NFL.com:

Team  Run Offense Pass Offense Run Defense Pass Defense
Packers 22 11 18 3
Team Run Defense Pass Defense Run Offense  Pass Offense
   Lions   32 26 31 12

The Lions came into Lambeau last October and were shut out 26 - 0. However when they were looking to avoid a 0-16 season in 2008, they managed to hang around and only lost 31-21. And they've kept it close in all three games this season. The oddsmakers are not predicting a close one, with the Packers favored by 14 to 16 depending on the odds you're looking at. Packers 27, Lions 7. 

The complete analysis after the jump.

Star-divide

Packers run offense vs. Lions run defense. While the official stats are low, they're feeling the love of the stat heads over at Football Outsiders that have them ranked No. 4 overall. The run game isn't flashy, with no run of more than 18 yards this season, but they always get positive yards and they've converted a 1st down on over 20% of their carries. However the Lions run defense really is that bad (allowing 5 yards/carry) and been run over by RB LeSean McCoy and RB Adrian Peterson in consecutive weeks.

Packers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense. The Lions brought in two starting cornerbacks (CB Chris Houston and CB Johnathan Wade) this season that were castoffs from the Falcons and Rams, and their low ranking is after three weeks is hardly unsurprising. They were lit up pretty good by QB Jay Cutler and QB Michael Vick, but QB Brett Favre's awful game against them last week is pretty indicative of how hard the Vikings have fallen so far this season. The only thing that could hold QB Aaron Rodgers back is if they decide to give 30+ carries to their running backs.

Lions run offense vs. Packers run defense. The Lions haven't gotten it done on the ground (averaging 3.0 yards/carry) in the first three games, and now star rookie RB Jahvid Best has a bad toe. The Packers are allowing over 5 yards/carry too), mostly because QB Michael Vick ran wild in week 1. RB Kevin Smith might get the start in place of Best and backup RB Aaron Brown (who's also battling an injury).

Lions pass offense vs. Packers pass defense. CB Charles Woodson is going to try and take away their best receiver (WR Calvin Johnson) but TEs Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler have done some damage this season too. Another injury here too as their top free agent pickup (WR Nate Burleson) is probably out. QB Shaun Hill has already been named as the starter this week in place of QB Matthew Stafford. While Hill had an almost game winning TD deep pass against the Bears in week 1, he's really more of a short yardage guy. I'm expecting him to play like QB Trent Edwards with a slightly better supporting cast. If they can't test the Packers secondary deep, then they'll be lucky to gain even 200 yards and throw less than 2 INTs. 

Special teams and penalites. After they were almost at the top of the rankings last week, unsurprisingly the Football Outsiders have dragged them back down again. They just simply couldn't be as bad next Sunday as they were on Monday night, though they are still a bottom ten unit until P Tim Masthay starts doing a better job of kicking deep and pinning the returner on the sidelines. Luckily Detroit's special teams are an average unit and it's unlikely they can take advantage here.

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Wasn't the Lambeau game last year when Stafford was injured?

That contributed more towards the end score than anything else, because that too was an overly sloppy game by the Packers as I recall.

by Danwood on Oct 1, 2010 12:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Wrong QB

I was at that game. Stafford was hurt sometime before, as he was dressed but didn’t put his helmet on all game. Culpepper started the game and he was the one that got hurt against the Packers and Stanton came in.

by Matt Capelle on Oct 1, 2010 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Seeing that Detroit is

the worst ranked run def in the league, Jackson and Kuhn had better put up some huge numbers (75+ for Jackson 100+ for the two combined) or else Ted had better make some type of move at running back because if they can’t move the ball against the worst run def in the league then we’re screwed against better teams

by Goldenarmadillo4 on Oct 1, 2010 3:27 PM CDT reply actions  

here,here

but didnt the trade deadline pass last week. SIGN LARRY JOHNSON!

Oz on Swish HR celeb: "That's the way he is. Good for him, enjoy it. I wish he could do it for me, he was a very horseshit player for me.''

by OznCoop on Oct 1, 2010 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

NO!

a clubhouse cancer we do not need. just give this team time to jell. you enter a larry johnson into the mix, it could ruin the whole year. he’s that self-centered.

My, oh my, you sure know how to arrange things.
You set it up so well, so carefully.
Ain't it funny how your new life didn't change things.
You're still the same old girl you used to be.

by threadkiller on Oct 1, 2010 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah?

Someone would have to call his surgeon by the end of the year. It would seem that he will likely separate his shoulder from patting himself on the back too many times.

I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.

Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010! State high point count: 3/50

by Vermont Cubs Fan on Oct 1, 2010 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

anybody know the latest

on lendale white (i’d rather not) or michael bush?

My, oh my, you sure know how to arrange things.
You set it up so well, so carefully.
Ain't it funny how your new life didn't change things.
You're still the same old girl you used to be.

by threadkiller on Oct 1, 2010 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Both with teams.

White is on IR with Denver and Bush is recovering from an injury in Oakland.

by Omaha Sun on Oct 1, 2010 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Bush just played his first snaps for Oakland last weekend. With DMacs injury history I can’t see them dealing bush though. He WAS the starter on that roster until he got hurt.

by TrevorR on Oct 3, 2010 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm surprised they are last.

With the D-line they have and the poor secondary, I would have thought teams would pass more and that the line would stop some backs more. I guess the weak LB corps is probably a big part of that.

by Omaha Sun on Oct 1, 2010 5:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Packer's better get their ass in gear,

after next week the schedule begins to pick up. Anyone else for sitting Taucher this week? bloody hell, he was brutal Monday

Oz on Swish HR celeb: "That's the way he is. Good for him, enjoy it. I wish he could do it for me, he was a very horseshit player for me.''

by OznCoop on Oct 1, 2010 5:51 PM CDT reply actions  

We’ll see. He was going against Peppers, whose probably the best defensive end in the league when his head is on right. I could see Vanden Bosch dominating him too though. I want to see Clifton look better then he has.

by packallday555 on Oct 1, 2010 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

38-3, Packers

This should be a very angry team facing Detroit.

by Darrell L on Oct 1, 2010 6:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Trade deadline is week 6. IMO, if the Pack can rush for 75-100 yards a game between Jackson, Kuhn and Nance, they will be fine. They haven’t been a running team for twenty years and with Rodgers hopefully staying healthy, they will continue to be a passing team for the next 10.

by Prince Fielder is Skinny on Oct 1, 2010 7:11 PM CDT reply actions  

If the Packers run for 100 yards, 30 will be from Rodgers and it will have taken BJ about 20+ carries to get 60 of the remaining few. Kuhn has the remainder.

by gern blanston on Oct 1, 2010 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I did a double take when I saw your avatar.

I thought you were jabooty at first.

I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.

Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010! State high point count: 3/50

by Vermont Cubs Fan on Oct 1, 2010 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

They haven’t been a running team? I seem to remember a running back putting up like 1400-1700 yards fora couple seasons…his name was Ahman Green. Heard of him? Sure we had Favre but lets not pretend like we had nothing back there.

by TrevorR on Oct 3, 2010 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

No predictions this time...

other than just to say that my fantasy team will utterly destroy the competition this weekend.

Go Pack Go!

"Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Vince Lombardi

by AdamA on Oct 1, 2010 7:53 PM CDT reply actions  

prediction

the D will do a fine job against a poor O. The O will do a fine job against a poor D. Good timing on this game.

by Jeigh AK on Oct 2, 2010 12:00 AM CDT reply actions  

The Packers need to play smarter and get that sloppy Monday night game behind them.

I think sometimes we Packer fans forget just how this team is. There is no doubt that the Packers played too emotional on Monday night and that led to the 18 penalties and horrible special teams play.

Today is a good day to remind the players to stay within themselves and not try to do too much. A clean win is important to get these young guys in the right mindset for the tough stretch ahead.

Carlos Silva lemonade: made from freshly squeezed Milton Bradley lemons. -- the Jim Hendry kook book.

by LAcarl519 on Oct 3, 2010 7:58 AM CDT reply actions  

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