Analysis: Green Bay Packers Sneak By Lions, 28-26
by Brandon on Oct 4, 2010 10:00 AM CDT
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintBefore I get into this I wanted to point out something: the Green Bay Packers are playing very good this season. At 3-1, they are tied for the best record in the NFC. They've scored 106 points in their first 4 games, and they're the only NFC team to have scored over 100 points after 4 games. And they've outscored their opponents by 33 points, which is tied with the Atlanta Falcons for best scoring differential in the NFC. There is parity in the NFC. I'm not dumping on the team for failing to dominate the 0-4 Lions, which has now played 4 of the best teams in the NFC (Bears, Eagles, and Vikings before) and been within 5 points in 3 of those 4 games.
How good was the defense in this game?
The 40 yard scramble by QB Shaun Hill was ugly, but RB Jahvid Best was held to 4.2 yards/carry with no run longer than 10 yards. The defensive line isn't playing as well against the run as they did last season, but overall the run defense is doing pretty well against non-QBs.
While Hill threw for 331 yards, it took him 54 pass attempts to get all those yards, and they only gained 6.1 yards/attempt. The pass defense gave him the underneath stuff and they had success with the dink-and-dunk. The problem was on 3rd down, where the Lions went 10 of 17 (63%). They didn't have any magic potion, the Lions came into this game converting only 32% on 3rd down, and they converted only 36% of the time on 3rd down in 2009. Part of their success came from the fact that they were converting on passes to Best, TE Tony Scheffler, and TE Brandon Pettigrew, who were often covered by LB A.J. Hawk and CB Jarrett Bush, instead of the injured duo of LB Brandon Chillar and CB Sam Shields. If the defense always allowed their opponent to convert 63% of the time on 3rd down, then that would be a major problem. But coming into this game, the worst they had done all season was a 38% conversion rate against the Eagles. This really calls for an adjustment by the coaches, not a full-scale change to the defense.
How good was the offense?
The running backs combined for 18 carries and 72 yards, for an exact 4.0 yards/carry. Not splashy, but not horrible either. And FB John Kuhn ran for a bunch of tough yards on the final drive of the game that ate up the last 6:32 of the clock. And good job by RG Josh Sitton, who handled DT Ndamukong Suh one-on-one for most of the game. You might recall Suh had one sack, but he didn't beat Sitton. He ran a stunt around LG Daryn Colledge to collapse the pocket and record the sack.
It's not like QB Aaron Rodgers to throw 2 INTs, though the deep ball to WR Greg Jennings was not a bad throw: the defender just took the ball away from Jennings. If they see single coverage to him on a deep route, they'll take their chances on that pass every time. But the offense did seem out of sync, due in large part to the fact that the Packer defense couldn't get off the field. Still Rodgers wasn't happy with the way this game was approached. According to the Journal-Sentinel, Rodgers said they have to make sure "we've got our best players on the field." I did see a lot more of TE Tom Crabtree on the field then I would have expected, probably at the expense of WR James Jones and WR Jordy Nelson (who combined for only 2 pass attempts thrown their way). That might be the last public display of displeasure, but McCarthy and Rodgers have some things to work out this week.
How bad was the special teams?
Ugh. Two fumbles by Nelson on kick returns, and one 21 yard punt by P Tim Masthay in the 1st quarter. But since they didn't allow a blocked kick, or a return for a TD, it's still better than last week. Only one of the fumbles led to a field goal.
Overall, as I said in the first paragraph, I'm not going to dump on the Packers for failing to dominate an 0-4 team. This was not their best game, but still they never trailed and closed the game out in the end.
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Pass D was horrible
except for woodson, of course. Dum Capers better fix it before they start playing good QB’s
Williams has been playing pretty well too. Even Shields has fared decently in his time in there. Our pass defense shouldn’t be nearly as bad as it is.
by packallday555 on Oct 4, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I know! We have two excellent and one decent player out there at cornerback. One excellent and one now injured decnt player at safety
how is this happening?
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Capers can't do much with the personnel he has
It’s Woodson, Collins, and question marks. Having Harris, Bigby, and now Burnett out really hurts the team. It’s a big reason why the 3rd down performance has been so poor. Maybe they need to blitz less or something.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
What's wrong with Tramon Williams?
I don’t think he’s a question mark. He’s been very good, especially the past 2 games.
by uglyfatpimplynerd on Oct 4, 2010 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactamundo!
Look at how the Saints struggled at home against Carolina, the FAlcons with the Niners. And the Colts get beat by the Jaguars. Anyone can beat Anyone.
The main thing about our Defense is we still don’t have a credible pass rusher outside of Clay (though Jenkins is pretty respectable). The QB just had too much time.
Also, it’s those intermediate passes over the middle to receivers and tight ends (just like in the Arizona game last year!) that’s killing us — which is direct product of Capers zone defensive scheme right?
Overall, I can’t complain at all about this 3-1 start — quarter of the season already over!
NO, not right.
The crossing patterrns are how you beat man coverage! Zone coverage passes those recievers along to the next man, and can lead to INT’s if the defense is really adept at zone coverage, cuz the zone defenders see the QB throwing into the zone they are playing and can jump the route. In man its very difficult to run w/ a WR who runs really crisp routes all the way across the field!! IMO, that is a difficult problem to fix… And I would much rather see the Packers in man coverage more than zone!
+1
On the playing more man than zone. We’re pretty brutal in zone coverage. The linebacker’s never get deep enough, and our guys over the top never seem to be able to make up for that. The seam is virtually wide open for whoever wants to run in there. And then it seems like we shift back deeper, and when they throw the underneath routes guys struggle to come up and make a hit.
Man coverage suits guys like Woodson, Williams, and Shields better, and it definitely suits Harris better for when he gets back.
by packallday555 on Oct 4, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Wrong regarding a pass rusher opposite Matthews
Capers kept rotating the LB’s on the opposite side of Matthews yesterday. Very hard for those LB’s to get it going when they’re hardly in the game with all that rotation.
The Pack needs to decide on either Jones or Zombo and just let it be.
Arizona vs Detroit
In the loss to Arizona in playoff game, most of the yards down the middle were generated by wide outs crossing to the middle, especially from the slot receiver side. The corners were attempting to pass the wide receivers to the middle backers in the Packers’ zone coverage.
Detroit simply threw under the huge Packer linebacker drop. Best simply came out of the backfield or the tight ends simply went out a few yards and hooked. Most of the TE yards came on TE screens on Packer blitzes.
Against AZ they beat our MAN coverage on crossing routes all game, NOT our zone coverage!!! The CB were not passing the WR to the next defender!
Detroit used the TE really well vs the Packers, thats not exactly a new problem of ours… Best didn’t beat us that much either. He only had 50 rushing yds and 34 recieving… He was held in check pretty well, the cost was allowing the TE to have a good day, but they aren’t nearly the playmakers that Best is! Good game planning by Capers to control Best and give the TE more room!!!
We ran quite a bit of zone coverage against the Cardinals. And quite a few times Barnett, Hawk, and Bush were totally out of place.
Yes, the tight ends killed us. We dropped back deep, they dumped it off. We played up, they hurt us in the seam. There was really nothing we could do to stop them.
by packallday555 on Oct 4, 2010 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Disagree
Vs. the Cards we played far more man than zone… And the crossing problems were always against man, not zone! Who would you rather have Capers allow catch the ball? Best or the TE’s? I’ll let the TE have the ball all day and take my chances vs them! Best is a playmaker, the TE’s on Detroit did well, but they are not going to beat you by themselves.
I remember watching a few segments that were broken down by Mayock on NFL.com after the game. In all those instances, all three of the guys I mentioned were just completely lost in their zones. The bunch confused them, and all of them ended up being way out of place.
Realistically, pretty much anything the Lions tried worked. The hit us with slants, fade routes to Johnson, passes up the seem, hooks to the tight ends, and dump offs to Best. Their running game did pretty good as well. As both Best and Smith averaged a combined 4.1 ypc. The defense got gashed for 431 yards. We were fortunate the Lions shot themselves in the foot a couple of times really. Otherwise they probably would have had 30+ points, and we probably would have lost.
I’m not sure what the problem with our defense is really. I feel like we have the talent to be one of the better defenses in the league but clearly we’re not. That makes me think Capers isn’t doing a good job of game planning, or utilizing our players strengths but then again, how could someone who basically created an entire scheme by himself not game plan well or know how to use players to the best of their abilities?
I have no idea what it is, all I know is our defense has looked bad so far this season.
by packallday555 on Oct 4, 2010 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Bunch
In bunched formations it only works if the DB’s or LB are in man coverage! Bunched formations don’t work vs zone! All the guys drop in zones they don’t follow anyone anywhere! Good lord think a little!!! This is football 101 stuff!!! EVERYTHING AZ did vs the Packers D had bunch formations vs man coverage… Everything! Do you think for yourself at all? Seriously!
Packers game plan was obviously to control Best… And they did that, not allowing him any game breaking plays! And in the passsing game they reallly even controlled Best and Megatron. Johnson had about 60 yds and 2 TD’s, but one was only due to his being 6’5 and having a 40 inch vertical! The ball was thrown to high for Woodson to get his hand on it and ONLY Johnson could have caught that ball!
Really thought you were better than this… For all your talk you really don’t seem to understand football too much!
Haha I am thinking for myself. MULTIPLE times I saw Bush or whoever was playing the slot pass a guy off to the linebackers in zone coverage, and every time the linebackers got burned. And it wasn’t just that game. It happens EVERY game. Both Barnett and Hawk are weak in coverage. It’s as if neither has any awareness out there. I only referred to the clip I saw with Mayock as evidence or support to what I was saying!
And again, I don’t disagree that it was too control Best but just because he didn’t have any “big” plays I don’t consider him controlled. He averaged 6.0 yards per catch, and 4.2 yards per carry. So yeah, no huge plays happened but he was still very successful. As for Johnson, he had two big Td catches. Plain and simple. One being on a longggg third down. That’s just unacceptable, especially inside the red zone.
You side stepped me pointing out that we still gave up 400+ yards, and 26 points to the Lions. That’s just not good no matter which way you cut it. We AGAIN, struggled to defend the middle of the field, and AGAIN struggled to stop teams on third down. It’s been a recurring theme now in three of our four games. How many more times are you going to have to see it before you acknowledge it?
by packallday555 on Oct 5, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Look, the DEA might investigate you for those uppers you are taking
Before I get into this I wanted to point out something: the Green Bay Packers are playing very good this season. At 3-1, they are tied for the best record in the NFC. They’ve scored 106 points in their first 4 games, and they’re the only NFC team to have scored over 100 points after 4 games. And they’ve outscored their opponents by 33 points, which is tied with the Atlanta Falcons for best scoring differential in the NFC.
Yeah, that’s nice and all, except that the teams we have beaten are a collective 1-11. We should have put up 42 more points in those 3 games, 2 TDs per game.
Drama
The only genuinely weak team the Packers have played so far is Buffalo. Detroit was in it at the end of each of its four losses this season. They are close to turning their corner. My big concern is the apparent abandonment of any running game in the play calling. I don’t understand why the offense came out early in the second half with a 2-TD lead playing a “catch-up” game with an empty backfield when it was time to start grinding it out and controlling the clock. That said, it was nice to see Kuhn get the ball and the yards on the final drive of the game. But it did not have to be that dramatic.
It's easy to understand
we don’t have a running game to utilize. Kuhn is good for what he is, a power back that can grind for yards. That however, is going to wear on him by the middle of the season and he’s going to lose a lot of that power. Jackson is what he is, a decent blocker with good hands out of the backfield on 3rd downs. This team is no better than 8-8 without a decent back. If we get a solid running game we’re 12-4 or 11-5. A serviceable back does so much in terms of making opponents respect the run so they can’t stack the box and makes the pass rush hesitate just a second to see if its a run. My biggest fear is that people look at Kuhn on the final drive and think our rushing woes are over. He did it against the worst run def in the league and his body wont hold up all season.
by Goldenarmadillo4 on Oct 4, 2010 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Commitment
I’m not suggesting that Kuhn replace Jackson in the overall scheme, but rather that the sidelines commit to the run. Jackson’s not going to break a 14-yarder every carry, but he only had 9 attempts yesterday. I would have liked to see more carries, if for no better reasons than to keep the defense honest, open up passing lanes, sell the occasional play action and control the clock — especially when sitting on a 3Q, 14-point lead.
Kuhn v Jackson
The problem with Jackson is that he is very slow to the line and tends to want to break the run outside. Unfortunately, outside the guard positions is the weakest part of the Packer line for run blocking. Tauscher is toast, Clifton isn’t far behind, and MM is slow to bench veterans. As contrast, Kuhn hits the hole quickly and yesterday, to close out the game, MM ran between the guards where the line has some push.
MM hasn’t taken advantage of Jackson’s strengths. Jackson is good catching passes out of the backfield and is a good screen pass runner. I’d like to see the Pack get some 7 yard gains passing to a back.
Use Kuhn as Grants replacement and Jackson in his normal role.
Maybe give Jackson a few extra carries, but I would like to see Kuhn running between the OT alot and getting the majority of the carries! Kuhn can keep the D honest in the run game, IMO. Not going to say he’s Hillis but he can be good enough till Starks is ready!
We are in serious trouble...
Morgan Burnett being gone for the season is going to put strain on a already shallow secondary we have…Sure we get Bigby back in 2 weeks but what is going to happen when teams figure out all they have to do to beat us is double team Clay Mathews and throw it underneath in Aj Hawk’s zone….Were going to be seriously tested the next 2 games going to Washington and hosting a good Miami team…If we go 1-1 before the bye i’ll be optimistic after we get Bigby, Harris, and add Starks to the backfield….by the way danwood…Philly has won 2 games alone
You're right, I miscounted
I need to talk to my boss about my job getting in the way of my APC posts…
Not worried...
Burnett wasn’t playing lights out by any stretch… He was OK in coverage, but sucked at open field tackling! Martin will be just fine in coverage… He knows the play calls and will play his responsibility and be better in open field tackling than Burnett. Bigby should be ready before or at wk 8. This won’t hurt us that much, IMO…
My guess is they use the roster spot at another position and use Bush as a multi-positional player… Though they could bring back Levine too.
Huh?
If we go 1-1 before the bye…
Uh, we have five more games before our bye (week 10).
-
The glass is way, way, way more than half-full.
yes but...
Can we hang with the Saints? Can we win against the Colts? If Brees or Manning were throwing instead of Hill, I don’t think we would have come up winners with that second half performance. We should stop shooting ourselves in the foot.
The division should be out of the question for this team. I’ve seen the Vikings and the Bears. The Vikes are hurting at WR and the Bears have no QB. We are so much better than them.
Install Kuhn as a featured back ASAP. Guy has size and sheer willingness to get the job done. If Hillis can do it in Cleveland, why can’t Kuhn do it in GB? Hillis was given the chance to be the featured back and is not looking back. Kuhn needs to get that chance too.
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Oct 4, 2010 10:32 AM CDT reply actions
Totally agree… For now! Kuhn is going to be the feature RB for now, until Starks comes off PUP! When that occurs he will be given every opportunity to become the feature RB. This start is really not much different than last year, or any other year under McCarthy, when the Packers really don’t run the ball well early in the season, but get better later in the year. IMO, that is part of the grand plan… This allows the passing game to get untracked early and the run game to come along at its own pace. Generally, though, the passing game has been better than its been this season. Still not going to get too worried! I wouldn’t be against acquiring Lynch, but really don’t see it happening. And he would take a good month to get integrated into the offense anyway!
BTW – I think Kuhn in many ways is just as elusive as Grant… Kuhn can and will get the job done!
In one way you can easily see this early season struggles as a positive thing. THe Packers are learning to win games when they aren’t at their best!!! Similar to the Saints, who are learning to win when they aren’t scoring. Saints are getting every teams best shot and still winning. I think its really similar to the Packers now learning to win when not playing their best football!
You mean
like in the final six minutes of yesterday’s game, for instance?
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The glass is way, way, way more than half-full.
I thought
The blocking by the interior line was good especially on the last drive. If you don’t have speed you have to replace it with finesse. If you watch Grant, he’s gotten real good at following his blockers. Maybe 10-15 yd runs are great but 3-5 yds a crack is good also.
The Bears...
Yeah, i saw the Bears, too. They weren’t fantastic, sure, but they beat the Packers. By no means do the Packers have the division wrapped up. Washington will be tough at home. The schedule down the road is pretty tough, with away games at NYJets, Atlanta & NE. And after what happened to Cutler last night, you have to worry about that late season game against the Giants.
by uglyfatpimplynerd on Oct 4, 2010 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions
How about picking up Blackmon if he is fully healthy for KR/PR/ST duties? Dropping someone like Peprah or Bush for a returner might work out well.
Also, I would like to see a trade made for a back…Kuhn and Jackson can hold their own, but to really make opposing defenses worry, having someone like a Lynch from Buffalo would really help Rodgers and the passing game.
Can't pick him up any time soon
Due to the injury settlement with him, the Packers can’t re-sign him for a while yet.
I think it was something like 8 weeks.
Don’t get your hopes up. They’ve been probably the worst in the league for three seasons now, and this season looks no different.
by packallday555 on Oct 4, 2010 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions
At least we don't have Bonemego as a ST coach anymore!
He’s in danger of losing his job in Miami!!! LOL
What an awful showing the Dolphins special teams had last night lol! I felt sorry for them.
by packallday555 on Oct 5, 2010 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
And, it cost me, as well.
My fantasy opponent came from behind to beat me with the Patriots’ kick return team.
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The glass is way, way, way more than half-full.
Lions fan here
Congrats on the win, enjoy the sweet taste of victory beer. Thats a helluva team you folks have and I’m glad I drafted a bunch of Packers for my fantasy team. I look forward to the next game against the Packers, hopefully the Lions can spoil your SB run ;)
Good luck until our teams meet again.
In life, a man is either the hammer or the anvil. Ndamukong Suh is both
Pride of Detroits village idiot
I know it's cliche
But I think the Lions are very close to respectability and beyond. Your second string QB showed me something too. I know it’s possible to stop shooting your foot with penalties too, since the Packers had a horrible night last Monday with costly penalties and played much better in that respect yesterday. Without those you might’ve been the one drinking the victory beer.
"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473
by NorthSidePaulie on Oct 4, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Good luck against STL
Not having the QB, a top WR, and having a hurt rookie RB was definitely a lot to overcome. The most important thing is that your defense is coming along. Picking off #12 twice is no small feat.
Get healthy.
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Oct 4, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Next week, you guys will get your first win this year.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010! State high point count: 3/50
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Oct 4, 2010 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions
My gosh.
The Dolphins’ special teams makes me feel better about our ST.
Talk about a collapse. A blocked punt, blocked FG returned for a touchdown, and a kickoff return for a touchdown.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010! State high point count: 3/50
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Oct 4, 2010 9:54 PM CDT reply actions
That explains a lot.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010! State high point count: 3/50
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Oct 4, 2010 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions
EIGHT CYLINDERS
Wouldn’t it be nice to see the Packers play with all cylinders functional?
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