FanPost

As Rodgers nears 1,500 attempts, how's the QB rating?

So, I was taking a look (as I usually do after every game) at Aaron Rodgers' QB rating.  He came into this season on pace to be the highest rated QB of all time (ahead of Steve Young's 96.8) when he reached the 1,500 pass attempts necessary to qualify for the NFL record.  However, things haven't quite gone according to plan, as Rodgers' QB rating for the season sits at 90.6, dragging his career rating down to 95.8, with a total of 1439 attempts. 

So I crunched some numbers to see what it would take in his next 61 pass attempts (let's say the next two games - @MIN and @ATL) to eclipse Steve Young's record.

In 61 pass attempts, if he puts together a line like this:

44 for 61 (72% completions - QB rating caps at 77.5%)
550 Yards (9.0 YPA - QB rating caps at 12.5)
5 TDs (1 TD every 12.2 attempts - QB rating caps at a low of 11.9)
1 INT (1 INT every 61 attempts - QB rating caps at infinity)

his career QB rating will jump to 96.83, 0.02 ahead of Steve Young's 96.81 career.

Now that's all well and good...but last week Philip Rivers' 17 for 23, 295 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT performance pushed his career QB rating to 96.9...making him the actual current QB rating leader.  To top that, Rodgers would need that same performance above but with 0 INTs (which would give him a career rating of 97.11.

And this concludes today's session of "Archie geeks out about stats".  I'll come back and update this after this week's game.

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