Mid-Season Review: Minnesota Vikings

by Brandon on Nov 18, 2010 7:01 AM CST in Green Bay Packers Analysis

It's been a slow news week for the Green Bay Packers. Mike McCarthy had another press conference on Wednesday, but nothing significant was discussed. So I thought I'd do a similar statistical mid-season review on the Vikings as I did for the Packers earlier.

This post isn't intended to kick a team when they're down. Their 3-6 record is doing a better job of kicking them around then I could ever do. I've only watched a couple Vikings games this season, so I don't expect to provide any insight beyond what most people know. I just wanted to see their 2010 DVOA rankings through week 10 according to Football Outsiders side-by-side with their final rankings from 2009:

Year	Offense	Defense	Special Teams
2010	25	21	24
2009	9	17	4

The obvious scapegoats are QB Brett Favre and Brad Childress (and this isn't a defense of either) but the Vikings have slipped overall on both sides of the ball (and on special teams). Those look like the stats of a 6 win team. The return of WR Sidney Rice would be a huge boost, but that's looking less likely by the day, and I don't know how they can expect to improve those rankings this season. That said, don't expect an easy win for the Packers next Sunday under any circumstances because 1) the Vikings are much better at home, and 2) this will remain a physical, divisional game.

First, let's look at the offense. 2010 stats and 2009 stats again from Football Outsiders:

Year	Pass Offense	Run Offense
2010	27	7
2009	4	23

As everyone knows, Favre is having a bad year. My snap judgment is that he really misses Rice, and he's trying to do too much. I've read the arguments for giving QB Tarvaris Jackson another chance to start, but he only had the pass offense ranked 24th overall in 2008. Their run offense might be the biggest surprise: 1) that it was so bad in 2009, and 2) that it's better in 2010. While RB Adrian Peterson had 6 fumbles last season, he's only had 1 so far in 2010. Also, WR Percy Harvin is best wide receiver at running the football in 2010, though he was very good in 2009 too.

Second, the defense. 2010 stats and 2009 stats from Football Outsiders:

Year	Pass Defense	Run Defense
2010	22	17
2009	22	1

For all that's been written about their lack of sacks, it hasn't hurt their mediocre pass defense. Opposing QBs had a 92.5 QB rating against them in 2009, and so far in 2010 it's 85.8. They've actually been a little bit better at grabbing INTs, but they know they can get better which is why they tried to sign CB Al Harris last week. I'm not sure what's wrong with their run defense, but NT Pat Williams has been discussing retirement lately.

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Two things have killed this team

Turnover differential for one. And not only the differential (-11, the worst in the NFL) but when the Vikings turn it over. It’s either deep in their end and it gives the opponents a short field, it’s in the red zone and kills a legitimate scoring chance, or it’s returned for a score. And not getting turnovers is crucial as well.

The other thing is third down efficiency for the defense. Statistically I think they’re middle of the road in terms of third down percentage, but when the VIkings must get s top to get off the field in a crucial point of the game, they can’t. Going into last Sunday the Bears were last in the NFL in third down percentage, yet converted over 60% on third down.

I expect more of the same Sunday.

The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota

"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."

by Ted Glover on Nov 18, 2010 7:23 AM CST reply actions

Turnover differential

is a killer. Always has been.

The Vikings beat themselves more than the Bears beat the Vikings last week. That’s just what happens in Chicago.

Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 18, 2010 10:35 AM CST up reply actions

only 2 games so far..

…where brett has actually had more td’s than int in a game..and if you add in his fumbles that brings it down to ZERO games w/ more td than turnovers..

thems some serious spergon wynn numbers!

"the following statement is true:
the preceding statement was false" - george carlin

by BranFavrenton on Nov 19, 2010 12:15 PM CST up reply actions

Also, Pat Williams is a manatee.

I cannot stress this enough.

"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker

by texwestern on Nov 18, 2010 7:53 AM CST reply actions

His layer of blubber protects him in the cold ocean.

by Curly Lambeau on Nov 18, 2010 12:33 PM CST up reply actions

He needs to get a job.

by Archibaldcrane on Nov 18, 2010 12:54 PM CST up reply actions

He needs to get on Weight Watchers or some kind of program

Towlieppan: "You wanna throw high?"

by GoGregGo on Nov 18, 2010 12:59 PM CST up reply actions

Some good that would do a run stopping DT...

Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 18, 2010 6:06 PM CST up reply actions

He should eat at Subway. :)

TT bashers - turning my stomach since 2005!
The glass is way more than half-full!

by NorthStarr on Nov 19, 2010 2:43 AM CST up reply actions

Pat Williams

is as eloquent as a manatee. He really should play the game as long as he can, because he has no future in the broadcasting booth. However, he’s still playing well for a 38-year-old-manatee who’s been pregnant longer than Bonnie from Family Guy. He will be able to play until he’s 60 if he keeps getting bigger. The D might have to use some rollers and a lever to get him lined up by the center, but once he gets there he won’t be moving nowhere.

Let’s hope B.J. Raji continues to play for the next 15 years. All jokes aside, Pat Williams is a very good player and can still blow up a play if you sleep on him for a split second.

"We've got Hank Baskett"

by I voted for Kodos on Nov 18, 2010 11:59 PM CST up reply actions

correction...

Also, Pat Williams is a manatee.

..pat williams is eating all the manatees..that’s why they’re now endangered.

"the following statement is true:
the preceding statement was false" - george carlin

by BranFavrenton on Nov 19, 2010 12:18 PM CST up reply actions

23rd ranked running offense last year???

That’s sick. But it looks like they throw to AP a lot more these days.

by junyer_mint on Nov 18, 2010 8:24 AM CST reply actions

Franchise at a crossroads

I was joking in the preseason watching Favre a few times saying that it was shades of 05. Really, I think that’s pretty accurate as the season has unfolded. At the end of the Sherman era the team got old and one year just fell apart. We were a franchise at a crossroads.

From there hard choices were made. Some good, some bad, and some will live in infamy whether right or wrong. Out of all those hard times has emerged a team that looks a bit different and is much more competitive.

Right now I think the Vikings are at the same turning point.

Sometimes watching this team it looks as though they’ve lost a bit of their identity. They are not stuffing the run, nor causing sacks. AP is still a great running threat, but often will disappear due to play calling or the necessity of catching up to a team. Finally they are starting to show some of their age. In short, this is a team that will probably have a tough offseason. Right now I’m hoping, for the sake of our rivalry, that the team and get back on the right track and build something special again. Good luck to you guys on what may be dark days ahead.

by PackApologist on Nov 18, 2010 10:16 AM CST reply actions

Solid points

And I agree. I honestly thought that what we are seeing now we would see in 2011, and if it meant another serious SB run, I didn’t really mind. And it’s not only Favre, although his decline has been a big part. Everyone seemed to get older all at once (Leber, Pat Williams, Favre, Hutch) and injuries, especially to the receivers, have really hurt.

Yeah, the draft will be interesting, and not having that third rounder because of the Moss trade could really hurt.

The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota

"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."

by Ted Glover on Nov 18, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions

Free Agency might be more interesting

That will set up the drama of the draft. Who will the Vikes keep? Who will leave? Who will they bring in?

Or perhaps more important….

What is the new plan? Cause really all of this comes back to that. The franchise is going to need a new face. Possibly a new coach, new power structure, all sorts of new. Now that could mean a blow up and start over, or just a quick little face lift. These are the things that I’m watching for out of the Vikes this year.

by PackApologist on Nov 18, 2010 3:02 PM CST up reply actions

New coach, yes. New power structure, no.

One of the strengths of the Vikings has been their drafting prowess with Spielman, Scott Studwell, and yes, Brad Childress.

Which makes me think they can compete while they’re transitioning, because they have a good nucleus of young talent on both sides of the ball, thanks to really solid drafts since 2006.

But it will all start and end with the QB position next year. Good QB play means a good team. Bad QB play, mediocre to bad team.

The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota

"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."

by Ted Glover on Nov 18, 2010 4:35 PM CST up reply actions

Well I'm thinking new structure, not new people

Right now the Vikings have a muddy system of leadership where the GM type roles are shared between three people and then the whole final 53 deal with the bowl of Chilly. What I’m suggesting is that the Vikes may want to rethink that structure and actually create a single GM role separate from the head coach, but not get rid of the people. Something like this may have prevented the Moss fiasco from happening.

by PackApologist on Nov 18, 2010 4:49 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah...

Need a re-structure. Seems like a convoluted mess right now! But I also think they definitely need a new HC. Don’t know the 2 personnel guys, but expect that if one becomes the GM, the other is gonna walk.

Hire one GM who is in total charge, answering only to Wilf, then have the GM hire the coach he wants. Usually this type of re-structure will result in a philosophical switch and a pretty major overhaul!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Nov 18, 2010 5:48 PM CST up reply actions

It really isn't truth be told

Yeah, the Moss release was a Kabuki Dick Dance, but it’s pretty cut and dried, for the most part. Spielman is the defacto GM, and he and Chilly agree on over 95% of the guys on the roster. The only two big disagreements I can think of were Sage Rosenfels (Spielman guy) and Moss (I think they were all on board to get him initially, FWIW). Studwell is the head of college scouting, Rob Brzezinski is the capologist, and Chilly, as the head coach, has a lot of sway into who they pick. That said, I think they’re all on the same page over 90% of the time.

It started off with that convoluted Triangle of Authority BS, but it’s smoothed out. And really, if CHilly goes, Spielman becomes the GM and will probably lead the next coaching search.

The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota

"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."

by Ted Glover on Nov 18, 2010 6:57 PM CST up reply actions

From what I know

Childress has final say on any personnel… That makes him more powerful than the GM who is supposed to be his boss! Pretty much makes it a convoluted mess, even if they agree most of the time! That is NO way to run an organization!!!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Nov 18, 2010 10:05 PM CST up reply actions

Defensive dropoff

Starts w/ the Williams wall… Phat is now in full decline and gets washed out alot vs the run and can be generally handled one on one! KW used to be a difference maker, but is playing very average as a 30 yr old. KW is still solid vs the run, but w/o Phat taking up double teams he just isn’t as effective. Not too mention the dropoff is pass rush from KW and Allens and you have a recipe for disaster. Can’t stop the run nearly as well as in the past and can’t get pressure on the QB either! The LB are really the heart of the D, but they can’t be effective in run support if they have blockers getting to them. THe secondary has been below average (except for Winfield) for a LONG time… Cook is a rookie and Allen is a decent backup at best.

On offense the Favre just can’t accept that AD needs to be the center of the offense for it to succeed! Just when it seems AD is ready to start taking over a game, Favre has to get involved and does something dumb, IMO. Certainly the OL is also in full decline, which isn’t helping either. Hutch isn’t a pro bowl LG anymore and Mckinnie while never very mobile has shown to be much worse this year! Still good enough run blocking but not great and the pass pro is pretty bad across the OL.

So sayeth the Stroh!!! LOL

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Nov 18, 2010 11:43 AM CST up reply actions

Starts w/ the Williams wall… Phat is now in full decline and gets washed out alot vs the run and can be generally handled one on one!

Totally agree. I’ve been paying close attention to Pat, and the number one thing that stands out to me is the fact that it’s now only taking one guy to block him. Before, he was almost always double teamed, and even then those guys couldn’t move him but rather just stand him up. Now, one guy is able to block him and is often able to move him. That hurts K. Williams, and makes it easier for the C to get out to Henderson in the middle.

I think that’s why we’ve seen their run defense drop off a bit. Those linebackers aren’t running free all of the time like they used too because of the defensive line play. Plus, the play from the Williams Wall used to cover up Allen’s inabilities against the run, which is now being exploited. I’ve seen him get blocked by tight ends multiple times this season which is somewhat embarrassing.

by packallday555 on Nov 18, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions

Williams Wall

Yes, PW has dropped off a bit, but I don’t think it’s been that drastic. He’s still an above-average DT. KW has still looked good to me as well. It’s the ends that are getting stonewalled. In the last few games I watched they were so desperate to get a good jump on the pass rush and get upfield that they took themselves completely out of running plays, leaving three O-linemen and a FB to go after the DT and MLB, with a tight end free to get either a safety or LB as well. You can’t have your ends completely abandon the run on every play AND have them fail to put pressure on the QB. Also, I think Leber is slipping as well, and Henderson’s solid but I don’t think he’s ever been great.

"We've got Hank Baskett"

by I voted for Kodos on Nov 19, 2010 12:12 AM CST up reply actions

Perfect comparison. The next year TT started disassembling what was left of the late 90s packer squad. Guards were not resigned, impact players were allowed to sign with others, etc. He began getting draft picks and making a few key signings when the deal was right and pretty quickly it was rebuilt. Favre helped to make the rebuilding seem like it was done sooner than it was which is probably what lead to the frustration between him and TT. Favre thought they were there and the work was done. TT knew that it was only just starting.

Will be interesting to see if the Vikings go through a similar rebuilding of it they just try to keep pushing on with the aging group they have.

by TrevorR on Nov 19, 2010 10:51 AM CST up reply actions

Not smart enough...

Or to much invested in the current group. My guess is they try to keep pushing on w/ aged group they have! But its gonna come down to who’s in charge. If its someone in the current group, they will push on. If they hire a real GM from outside he’ll start the re-build!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Nov 19, 2010 11:03 AM CST up reply actions

With the stadium deal on the line rebuilding the team would be a risky maneuver…you are probably right that they will just keep the same crew and press on for another year.

by TrevorR on Nov 21, 2010 7:26 AM CST up reply actions

Good Luck this weekend boys, should be a good game

I’m off to try and get one last buck before seasons end sunday!

by supertrooper15 on Nov 18, 2010 12:53 PM CST reply actions

A pre-emptive warning.

If a bad, mind blogging call is made for either side, let us all agree it didn’t “cost us the game” OK? lol

by Jepp The Viking on Nov 18, 2010 1:01 PM CST reply actions 6 recs

lol agreed

4 hours 5 minutes? Is that all? Buehrle coulda pitched three CGs and the bottom of the 14th in Houston by then. FTMFYITA! - RWShow

by blackoutsox on Nov 18, 2010 1:41 PM CST up reply actions

Deal

by PackApologist on Nov 18, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions

I like this

"We've got Hank Baskett"

by I voted for Kodos on Nov 19, 2010 1:16 PM CST up reply actions

Fine by me.

by TrevorR on Nov 21, 2010 7:26 AM CST up reply actions

…but only if you can convince your fellow fans to stop with all the stuff about the last game. :-)

by TrevorR on Nov 21, 2010 7:27 AM CST up reply actions

I appreciate the modesty in the quote

1) The Vikings are much better at home, and 2) this will remain a physical, divisional game.

However, the Vikings have done NOTHING to prove that we won’t get blown out by the Packers. if you guys win this game, then I hope you guys go deep in the playoffs. Only because I can’t look at Jay Cutler’s stupid face when he loses in the wild card round of the playoffs.

by PurpleEaters on Nov 18, 2010 1:37 PM CST reply actions

Isn't that assuming

Jay Cutler has a smart face? I have yet to see evidence of any intelligence whether real or on the face of Jay Cutler

Are you saying Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?

by houseofcards on Nov 18, 2010 2:50 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Refreshing to hear a Vikings fan

who actually hates the Bears, like Vikings fans should.

"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks

by jobe on Nov 18, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions

We're split

Since the Vikes pooped their Depends, some of us want Chi to win, the others GB. Me? Eh.

by Jepp The Viking on Nov 18, 2010 4:00 PM CST up reply actions

Shouldn't the standard here

be to want both teams to lose every game, and let the NFC north be decided by whoever wins in their remaining head to head?

(Granted, I don’t hate the Bears like I should, mainly because football season is less fun when my Bears fan friends completely give up)

by Archibaldcrane on Nov 18, 2010 4:08 PM CST up reply actions

I have no problem ramping up the hate for either one

respectfully that is.

The hate’s burned a little brighter for the Vikings in recent years only because they’ve been the bigger obstacle to Packer success (to state the obvious).

But that Bear hate’s certainly ramping up, and their superior division record’s starting to get worrisome. Talk about a must win game, the upcoming reprise at Lambeau’s shaping up to be an interesting one.

"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473

by NorthSidePaulie on Nov 18, 2010 4:19 PM CST up reply actions