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The loss to Atlanta yesterday came as no huge surprise.  The Falcons are a complete team that deserves to be leading the NFC right now.  The game that threw me scrambling for some statistical comfort was Bears-Eagles.  

Yes, everyone outside of Cook county was blithely ignoring and sloughing off the Bears until yesterday, myself included.  How could they not be frauds?  Well, that conjecture is clearly baseless today.  The Bears are a good team - not a complete team, but then neither are our Packers (see "running game, lack of" and "special teams").  We were all hoping the Bears would just go away and that 3 point loss (aren't they all) back in September wouldn't hang around to bite us in December.  The genius TV analysts spoke of the Packers like they were in firm control of the division and spoke of the Bears like they were clamoring for a miracle Wild Card spot.  Baseless.  I wasn't upset at the Packers loss to the Falcons yesterday because I felt so sure the Bears would blow it to Philly.  The Bears have proven themselves to be contenders though and regardless of how we might like to qualify and footnote their wins, the record is all that matters in the end.  It's never a happy time to have to rely on another team losing in order for your team to grab the proper positioning.  Even after this weekend though, we don't have to worry about this yet and we probably won't have to at any point yet to come.

Reality is we are one game behind the Bears now with that rematch looming on January 2nd.  Four games remain before then.  A summary and breakdown of the situation after the jump.

Packers (currently 7-4)

losses to CHI, WAS, MIA, ATL (3 in conference), wins against PHI, BUF, DET, MIN, NYJ, DAL, MIN

remaining games:

GB vs SF

GB at DET

GB at NE

GB vs NYG

GB vs CHI

projected (11-5)

Bears (currently 8-3)

losses to NYG, SEA, WAS (3 in conference), wins against DET,  DAL, GB, CAR, BUF, MIN, MIA, PHI

remaining games:

CHI at DET

CHI vs NE

CHI at MIN

CHI vs NYJ

CHI at GB

projected (11-5)

The projections are my own.  If we look at the reasonable outcomes of these last 5 games, we see that the division crown will indeed depend solely on the final game in all likelihood.  Depending on the final win percentage, the loser of that game may even miss the playoffs entirely if TB surprises (in my opinion, not very likely).  Both the Bears and Packers hold tie-breakers over Philly already in head-to-head play so I don't feel threatened there.  If we can beat the Giants, we will be sitting pretty with tie-breakers over the two likely leaders of the NFC East.

Onto the most likely scenarios:

0.) Both GB and CHI win out until the rematch.  If GB wins the rematch, then we win the division: same record, split head-to-head, same division record, but GB will have the better conference record.

1.) GB and CHI lose one more each until the rematch, but GB wins the rematch.  Then we win the division.  The likely losses?  Say GB loses at NE, CHI loses vs NE.  Again, GB wins the conference record tie-breaker.  Say GB loses to NE, CHI loses vs NYJ.  Then the same applies.  Say GB loses to NYG, CHI loses vs NE (so we both beat NYJ).  Then we have the same conference record, but GB wins strength of victory tie-breaker since GB would have beaten SF and NE, while CHI would have only beaten CAR and MIA.  Finally, say GB loses to NYG, CHI loses to NYJ.  Then we win the division based on strength of victory via the win over the Jets.

2.) GB and CHI lose two more each until the rematch, but GB wins the rematch.  Again, the likely losses are GB loses to NE and NYG, CHI loses to NE and NYJ.  We still win the strength of victory tie-breaker via the win-percentage of NYJ over MIA and SF over CAR.

3.) If GB loses one less game than CHI before the rematch, then a win in the rematch decides the division winner straight up.

4.) If we are swept by the Bears, then we would require a previous collapse on their part to win the division - not likely.  We could still eke out a Wild Card spot with tie-breakers over Philly and NYG (pending).  The Giants game is very important because a win there would buy us the comfort of a near playoff berth (again, short of TB really surprising).  This assumes all our playoff competitors don't steamroll these last couple weeks, but that's an assumption I'm willing to make (for now).  

The moral of the analysis is that the Bears-Packers rematch should - in all likelihood - decide all for both teams. Even though the Bears are a game up on us currently, the tie-breaker scenarios all favor the Packers rendering the playing field essentially level.  

To end with, I should apologize to the Lions, Vikings and 49ers for assuming wins for the Bears and Packers.  The above scenarios are based solely off what I think is most likely to transpire and even the strength of victory tie-breaker scenarios are not completely guaranteed (although they're a pretty sure bet).  None of those games can be taken lightly by either the Bears or the Packers (especially the Lions at home, and the Vikings at home for the Bears).  It's always proven to be foolishness to seriously project this many games, but I find the likely outcomes reassuring still. GB completely controls its own destiny and what better way to end the regular season than a winner-take-all matchup versus our oldest rival?  It's not what I envisioned at the start of the season, but I have to say I'm looking forward to it.  It would make for an epic end to a surprising season for both clubs.