NFL Playoff Picture: Packers Have To Keep Winning
by Brandon on Dec 6, 2010 7:00 PM CST
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintAs of today, you'll notice that the Green Bay Packers would miss the 2010 playoffs, courtesy of ESPN's playoff standings, which emphasizes that they've got to keep winning. And the last two games of the season, at Lambeau against the Giants and the Bears, are looming large. If the Packers win out, they win the NFC North.
I'm not really concerned about winning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Most important is that they make the playoffs in any way, shape, or form. Second, securing a first week bye is like earning an extra win, and home field advantage is just gravy.
Any of the teams above the Packers could collapse down the stretch. For example, the Giants lost three of their last four games in 2009, which ended any chance they had to make the playoffs. But nothing like that is guaranteed to happen this year. The Buccaneers loss to the Falcons was a tough one, but the Packers have to keep a look out for them in the rear view window too.
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BLAS posted this last night
Click on any team to see what their rooting interests should be for every upcoming game.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
by Clutch16 on Dec 6, 2010 7:17 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
All we can do is win and worry about ourselves
We can’t underestimate the Lions this week. Take it 1 week at a time. We almost lost to Detroit in Green Bay, lets not do that this weekend @ Detroit. It’s their home and Detroit is still a very competitive team that is still capable of beating us.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
The Lions are dangerous. I don’t think the Packers will underestimate them…some fans might but the Packers know who they are and know that they have to win each game at this point. I have full confidence they won’t be looking past anyone.
The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers loss to the Falcons was a tough one, but…
The Buccaneers loss to the Falcons left them a game behind us,
with an 0-5 record against teams with a winning record,
and a 7-0 record against everybody else.
TT bashers - turning my stomach since 2005!
The glass is way more than half-full!
Yeah, if I were doing the “contender” or “pretender” segment on NFL Live, I’d definitely label the Bucs a “pretender”.
by packallday555 on Dec 7, 2010 12:49 PM CST up reply actions
Rams last four games
@ New Orleans
Kansas City
San Francisco
@ Seattle
I can easily see them, behind a gradually improving Sam Bradford, winning three of those games and winning the West with a 9-7 record — thus rendering premature the sky-is-falling clamor of all chicken little talking heads, who, forgetting in their panic that it’s a long season, have been gathering with torches and pitchforks to lynch the current playoff system.
TT bashers - turning my stomach since 2005!
The glass is way more than half-full!
I was joking, I think the playoff system is fine
Maybe when the Vikings and Rams switch in 2012, it will balance things out.
by Charlie Kelly on Dec 7, 2010 6:26 AM CST up reply actions
Understood you were joking.
And, the Vikings and Rams may well switch, but it is cycles that will (and always do) even things out.
TT bashers - turning my stomach since 2005!
The glass is way more than half-full!
Also
Remember when the 2008 Cardinals were the worst playoff team in recent memory?
(That is, before they went on an epic, record-setting, barn-storming roadshow to nearly upset the “superior” Steelers in the Super Bowl)
Yeah but the talent was there for them too. They had just been inconsistent. I don’t think the talent is currently there for any of the NFC West teams.
by packallday555 on Dec 7, 2010 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
NFC West teams...
Would best be described as consistently inconsistent!!!! LOL
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
I just noticed something about the NFC West.
I just noticed something. The crappiness of the NFC West extends beyond just sending an inferior team to the playoffs. If things go on as expected, this could be the third year in a row in which the NFC division which was paired with the NFC West sends two teams to the playoffs, with the division winner getting a first round bye.
In 2008-2009, you had the NFC East with the Giants getting the #1 seed and Eagles as a WC. (They were a combined 8-0 against the NFC West)
In 2009-2010, you had the NFC North with the Vikings getting the #2 seed and Packers as a WC. (Combined 7-1 against the NFC West) Also, AFC BONUS! The Colts got the #1 seed with 4 stat-padding wins over the NFC West.
In 2010-2011, things are shaping up for the Falcons to nab the #1 spot and the Saints to go as a WC. (5-1 combined so far)
by Puddleglumed on Dec 8, 2010 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
Here are some more fun toys to play with...
Yahoo Playoff Scenario Generator
ESPN Playoff Thing
I messed around with this for awhile. It takes a lot of fail by both the Bears, Giants, and Saints for the Vikings to get into the playoffs.
I tried to get Dallas in the playoffs to see how their chances are .01%. I don’t think it is possible.
Just mess around with it. Packers still have really good chances to make it as either the 2 seed (believe it or not) and the Wild Card 2.
by Bush League All Star on Dec 6, 2010 11:42 PM CST reply actions
Strange scenarious
Haven’t been able to get the Cowboys into the playoffs (GB wins head-to-head + ATL or NO will win on W-L alone), but I did manage to get the NFC west to send an 8-8 Seattle team as the WILD CARD while also sending the 8-8 Rams into the #4 slot.
I think Dallas is eliminated
I tried to get Dallas in the playoffs
1) Dallas is 4-8, so the best record they can get to is 8-8
2) The Eagles and Giants are both at 8 wins. Since they still have a head-to-head matchup, at least one (or both) will be 8-7-1 or better. Therefore, the Cowboys are eliminated from winning the NFC East
3) There are already two second-place teams the Cowboys cannot pass for the #6 wildcard (Packers 8-4 + head to head, Saints 9-3)
On further review... Mabye the Cowboys can get in on a 3-way tie
But one thing it requires is the Packers to lose out.
This scenario shows the Cowboys in as the 6th seed (but I think it’s wrong, in that case the Packers should get in via the head-to-head tie breaker).
However, if there were a 3-way tie at 8-8 between the Packers, Cowboys and the 2nd-place NFC West team, they could overcome the head-to-head loss vs. the Packers. Of course, even this scenario is eliminated with the next Packers’ win.
D∈T
Ah.
Well that is their small chance. So the Packers can officially eliminate the Cowboys this weekend.
by Bush League All Star on Dec 7, 2010 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
We can’t eliminate them cause WE are in yet! The Giants will eliminate them if they win though…
The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010
Yes, Cowboys will be eliminated with a Packer win
The second-place finisher in the NFC South is already guaranteed to have 9 wins (Since the Falcons and Saints both have 9+ wins).
Right now, the second-place finisher in the NFC North is guaranteed to have 8 wins (Packers and Bears both have 8+ wins). With one more Packer win, that goes up to 9 wins.
Once there are two second-place NFC finishers guaranteed to have at least 9 wins, all 8 (or more) loss teams in the conference are eliminated. Including the Cowboys.
One very interesting (and not altogether unlikely) scenario
That I came up with using the Yahoo generator. I started with the option to base projections off of Yahoo’s rankings. Then just fiddled 3 games so the Eagles and Giants both end at 11-5, with the Eagles winning the division, and the Packers losing to the Giants and beating the Pats, and the Bears losing to the Jets or NE.
In this scenario, the winner of the Bears-Packers game gets the division and a first round bye. (Due to winning a tiebreaker with the Eagles) The loser doesn’t make the playoffs. (Due to losing a tiebreaker to the Giants)
How awesome would it be to have that final game with such high stakes?
Link
Here’s a link to the scenario. Just toggle the week 17 Bears-Packers game back and forth to see it in action.
I don't think I could handle the tension...
"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473
by NorthSidePaulie on Dec 7, 2010 10:15 PM CST up reply actions
Wow...
I didn’t think it was possible, but when I used the Yahoo calculator to figure out my picks over the coming weeks, the NFC South wound up with the three teams in the playoffs. Is it even possible that the Bucs could squeeze the Bears out despite having a worse record?
For the Pack and the Bears every game is going to count and I fully expect it’s going to come down to that last game of the season. Wouldn’t that be fun?
"Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Vince Lombardi
Just want to add in
that the Patriots win over the Jets also helps us big time too. Had the Jets won, they likely would have the AFC East locked up by the time they play the Bears. Now they will probably have to play their starters against the Bears in time for their matchup. The Patriots win over the Jets is HUGE for the Packers!!!!
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
+1
"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473
by NorthSidePaulie on Dec 7, 2010 10:15 PM CST up reply actions
Playing around with the Yahoo thing
and I believe if we go 3-1 with a loss to the Patriots, we’ll be in too, or the probability is something close to 100%.
We only control our own destiny
If we win out. If we lose to the Pats, we need the Bears to lose any one of their next three games before playing us. In that case, we would win the tiebreaker based on having a better NFC record.
Realistically speaking, there are very few scenarios where we would lose a tiebreaker to the Bears. If we lose to the Giants and the Bears lose to the Vikings, it’s the same scenario as above. If we lose to the Giants and the Bears lose to the Pats or Jets, there is almost no way for the Bears to have a better strength of victory (winning percentage of teams you beat) than us.
It would take something like the Panthers and Dolphins winning out, and the Jets and Niners completely collapsing.
I was aiming at the Wildcard if the Bears beat the Partriots, we beat the Bears, but lose to NE
We’d have the tiebreaker over both the Eagles and Giants, and only the division winner can go 12-4
This
We’d be in regardless of the Bucs-Saints, Saints-Falcons and Eagles-Giants games, so for a playoff berth we only have to win out in the NFC.
Ah, wildcard, I see
You are correct, it is 100% sure if we go 3-1 with the loss to NE. There are currently 8 teams that can finish 11-5 or better. We would hold tiebreakers over three of them: TB (NFC record), PHI ( head to head), and NYG (head to head). Since us beating the Giants would mean either they or the Eagles would finish 11-5 at best, then we would be in.
Might be better to get in as a wildcard
Unless Starks proves to be Ryan Grant Jr. and has 125 yards in the next 4 games, the Pack’s best road to the Super Bowl might be all away games. Right now, the Packers really aren’t a sub zero type of team and, with the exception of Atlanta, other team’s home field advantage hasn’t bothered them much.
I see where you're coming from
but as a wildcard there are a lot of not-warm places we could end up in the second round anyways (PHI, NY, CHI). Better to get a week off and have the cold game be at home.
That said, I do like our chances on the road vs. teams like St. Louis, NO, and Atlanta.
by Puddleglumed on Dec 7, 2010 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
Beat the Lions.
^^^This is the only thing we have to worry about this week.
by Shamalamadingdong on Dec 7, 2010 5:43 PM CST reply actions
Yeah
The Lions game is critical, not just because we need to win as many as we can, but also because division record is the #2 tiebreaker after head-to-head.
How in the world...
…did Atlanta wind up getting Carolina in 2 of their last 4 games?
Is there any way ATL ends up with 4 losses at the end of the year? They also play Seattle and the Saints.
...in accordance with the prophecy.
Good question. I think there was more of an emphasis on teams playing their division games so they wouldn’t just sit their guys in the later weeks.
Too answer your question, no I doubt it. They probably end up 13-3 imo.
by packallday555 on Dec 8, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
Which isn’t a huge deal though. Playing in a dome actually caters more to our strengths.
by packallday555 on Dec 8, 2010 10:44 AM CST up reply actions
Sounds like they have the easiest schedule of any playoff team ever!!! Sheesh...
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
See my comment above
About how playing against the NFC West seems to be a determining factor in making the playoffs 3 years in a row now. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs are 8-1 against the NFC West, with the added bonus of the Panthers handing out wins to everyone who comes knocking.
by Puddleglumed on Dec 8, 2010 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
not buying
atlanta played or will be playing
b-more, pitt,saints(2), tampa(2), philly, packers, rams.
packers played or will be playing
eagles,bears(2), jets, atlanta, pats, giants
atlanta already went through their tough part of the schedule and won most of them obviously. the packers are just coming up on their tough part of the schedule.
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