The Bills Are Next Season's Packers

by Brandon on Feb 5, 2010 1:31 AM CST in Green Bay Packers News

It's a weird story that George Edwards was hired last month as the new defensive coordinator for the University of Florida, but his tenure was brief and he's already moved onto the Buffalo Bills. It's also interesting that Edwards plans to install a 3-4 defense in Buffalo:

Shortly after the Bills announced their rather shocking hire of George Edwards, just a month after he had accepted the same position at the University of Florida, Edwards announced that he would transition the Bills to a base 3-4 defense in the 2010 season.

For a Bills defense that had more than its fair share of struggles last year, particularly against the run where they finished third to last, this move makes quite a bit of sense.

If any defense in 2009 played like the Green Bay Packers defense of 2008, it was the Bills. According to Football Outsiders, they ranked the Bills pass defense 3rd best, but the run defense was a lowly 26th. An elite pass defense with a lousy run defense was exactly what the Packers had back in 2008, and the installation of a 3-4 defense turned the run defense completely around while maintaining the excellent (playoff game excluded) pass defense. Over at Buffalo Rumblings, they like the switch but think it might take some time to acquire the right personnel. There were lots of questions about the change in personnel for the Packers, but then they used the 1st round of the 2009 draft to select LB Clay Matthews and DT B.J. Raji (plus 7th round steal LB Brad Jones) to accelerate the process. I'll be really interested to see how the transition goes for the Bills in 2010.

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A couple of thoughts

-AJ Hawk and Paul Posluszny have had careers that almost mirror each other, it kind of seems to me. I’m assuming Pos is gonna be an inside backer just like AJ.
-I saw a couple of Bills games this year and Marcus Stroud looked average to bad. He could play anywhere on that three man line but would the Bills really be interested in keeping him around.
-Perhaps the drafting of Aaron Maybin at OLB was done with this move possibly in mind down the road?
-The Bills defense really struggled last year without Kawika Mitchell. He’ll be back and whatever role he’s in, I’m sure he’ll be good at it.
-Boy, both the Packers and Bills would love to have Bryce Paup around today.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Feb 5, 2010 3:38 AM CST reply actions

- Stroud signed a contract extension less than a year ago. He’ll be in Buffalo in some capacity.
- “Perhaps the drafting of Aaron Maybin at OLB was done with this move possibly in mind down the road?” Nope.
- Bryce Paup would be nice….

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by MattRichWarren on Feb 5, 2010 5:53 AM CST up reply actions

Maybin seems like he could be a good fit for the 3-4 defense though doesn’t he? I can’t say I watched him too much this year but I remember going into the draft last year there were some scouts saying that he could probably transition to a 3-4 LB.

What do you think will happen with Schobel?

by packallday555 on Feb 5, 2010 10:09 AM CST up reply actions

Maybin

It is understandable that you as a Packers fan did not get to watch Maybin play much. Unfortunately, Bills fans didn’t get to watch him play much either :(

by iluk92 on Feb 5, 2010 4:41 PM CST up reply actions

But, wasn't thst in the 4-3?

Is there a reason why you think it wouldn’t be different in the 3-4?

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The glass is more than half-full.

by NorthStarr on Feb 6, 2010 2:06 AM CST up reply actions

The Bills have major holes now on both sides of the ball. I would have preferred they not switch because of that. You guys had Aaron Rodgers. We won’t be able to spend two first round picks on the defense.

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by MattRichWarren on Feb 5, 2010 5:55 AM CST reply actions

Bills drafting defense?

I see that in many mock drafts, Buffalo is taking the best OT available. Now that they are switching to a 3-4, would it be a good bet for them to take a defensive lineman or linebacker to fit their new scheme?

Hopefully this would allow one of the better OT’s to fall to the Pack.

by AaronR on Feb 5, 2010 8:25 AM CST up reply actions

This is a pretty good point. We offense under control (except for the whole RT disaster), and a lot of the defensive positions filled already. What do you see the Bills spending their first two picks on? I think Maybin and Schobel could potentially be your OLB’s (Schobel kind of compares to our situation with Kampman), and your secondary seems pretty set. Stroud would probably be a good DE in the 3-4, and Kyle Williams and Cargo have the size to play the other DE.

You guys will need to get a NT to fill the middle as I don’t know that any of your guys have the size to do so now. Maybe Cody out of Alabama or Thomas out of North Carolina could fill this role. There also could be a few potential guys that you could pick up in FA to fill the void.

On a side note how did Jamon Meredith look for you guys?

by packallday555 on Feb 5, 2010 10:20 AM CST up reply actions

What do you see the Bills spending their first two picks on?

If Clausen’s still there (doubtful), he’s ours. Not sure if we’d take Bradford even if he was there, given he has a weaker arm and it sucks to throw in Buffalo late in the season. (sound familiar?) We need an OT and LB desperately as well. If the top QBs and tackles are off the board, our sights are probably set on Rolando McClain.

Stroud would probably be a good DE in the 3-4, and Kyle Williams and Cargo have the size to play the other DE.

Stroud seems to have been hampered by injuries and isn’t getting any younger. Williams is surprisingly athletic, but doesn’t have the ideal 3-4 DE build. We’ll see on him; might work as a RDE or might be good trade bait. McCargo is useless and probably shouldn’t be in the league in any capacity. He failed miserably as our 4th DT even though we asked very little of him. The guy that might give us some value is Spencer Johnson, who we got from MIN and was our 3rd DT this year and played some 4-3 DE on running downs occasionally.

On a side note how did Jamon Meredith look for you guys?

Not terrible, but he definitely needs some work. You all know what kind of holocaust our OL was this year, I’m sure, but Meredith looked a little more comfortable as time went on. If I had to guess, I’d wager that Meredith is on the team next year as a backup OT. You guys were probably right to have him on the practice squad.

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Feb 5, 2010 12:46 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks for the response. Why McClain? Don’t you think Poz and Mitchell will be good ILBs?

Honestly, Jolly was pretty much useless for us as a 4-3 DT, and then turned out to be a good 3-4 DE. All you really need as a 3-4 DE is size and strength. As I’m sure you now know, they aren’t expected to necessarily do anything but consume blockers. Obviously their are some around the league that do, but their aren’t many of tehm.

Thanks for giving me the skinny on his year. I was excited when TT drafted him last year because he was a projected 2nd-3rd round guy who dropped to us in the 5th round. He also was ranked as like the 6th or 7th best LT by some, and considering the depth and talent at LT in last years class that’s pretty good. Obviously he didn’t work out for us, but hopefully he will for you guys.

by packallday555 on Feb 6, 2010 2:42 PM CST up reply actions

Actually, given some things I’ve read about McClain’s strengths and weaknesses, I’m less sure it’d be McClain now. A lot of his strengths are similar to Poz’s, apparently. I’m not exactly sure where Mitchell fits in the 3-4 switch. He’s not great in pass coverage, but he’s a decent blitzer. He might be big enough to fill the role, but he’s not very disciplined in chasing the ball carrier and it’s just so hard to project how players will adapt. What Poz really needs is a big man who can knock some linemen on their butt because he’s got pretty decent lateral mobility, is solid in coverage, and is a sure tackler, but can’t blitz or shed a block to save his life. What really killed us last year was lack of depth in the LB corps. We lost 2 of 3 starters (plus Poz for a little while) and really had only mid round rookies and special teamers to fill the void. Thus the terrible rushing defense. So, we now have to fill more LB positions with the 3-4 switch.

The problem with McCargo is that he’s more that penetrating type of DT, but gets mauled by double teams, or even just good single blockers. He’s also shown a lack of commitment to improvement, so I’m not hopeful about him learning a new skill set.

Yeah. Of our 7 offensive tackles last year, Meredith is definitely one of the 3 I’d like to see stick around this year. I’m hopeful, but also cognizant of the fact that he hasn’t really shown anything yet. I think there were a number of people on Rumblings last year that were feeling jealous that you guys picked Meredith up at the time. I guess we’ll see what happens. With the regime change, it’s hard to tell who will be around next year anyway.

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Feb 9, 2010 2:50 PM CST up reply actions

The move makes sense rankings-wise

But we are going to have change a LOT of front seven personnel to make this work. As many as our top three defensive ends may be gone now, Schobel is thinking of retirement and would have to stand up, Kelsay is not big enough or talented enough to play a 3-4 DE (he can barely play 4-3), and Ryan Denney’s a free agent at age 33 I think. Stroud and Spencer Johnson could play DE, but our Pro Bowler Kyle Williams is 300 pounds (not enough for a NT really) and basically built for a 4-3, I don’t know what happens to him.

At linebacker, we’re a little bit safer. Poz and Kawika will likely play inside, Maybin stands up and then Schobel too, if he comes back. Ehh, it could work but it’s going to be a hell of a coaching job for Edwards. Enough to make a Bills fan nervous as heck. At least Keith Ellison won’t be starting anymore.

Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged

by Dyl on Feb 5, 2010 9:53 AM CST reply actions

Yeah, as long as you guys get a couple of big hogs on the d-line it seems doable. And too be honest I really don’t know how much skil/talent 3-4 DL need. Obviously it helps, but Jolly and Pickett were both average-below average 4-3 DTs for us before we made the switch and they were both good in the 3-4 (probably because of their size.)

Your LB core has the potential to really good with Kawika, Poz, and Maybin. Schobel would probably have a similar transition to Kampman’s this past year.

by packallday555 on Feb 5, 2010 10:24 AM CST up reply actions

I should know more about the Bills becasue I live in western NY...

The Bills just have more holes to fill than the Packers did. The Packers didn’t have any glaring needs on offense and used 4 picks to draft a legit NT and OLB. The Bills will have to use FA to plug some holes and might have to use their first pick on a QB.

by grant76 on Feb 5, 2010 12:11 PM CST reply actions

So your team going to bring back the TO experiment? It seemed like it finally started working toward the end of the season.

by TrevorR on Feb 6, 2010 7:57 AM CST up reply actions

One thing is safe to say.

These Bills that hopped on over know their football. :) Nice to see some different faces around here.

Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge

by Bush League All Star on Feb 5, 2010 9:17 PM CST reply actions

Agreed

Buffalo Rumblings is a great site to read. Every Bills fan I’ve ever met has been very knowledgeable.

by Brandon on Feb 6, 2010 12:56 AM CST up reply actions

I agree.

Let’s adopt the Bills as the Packers’ equivelant of a ‘Sister City’.

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The glass is more than half-full.

by NorthStarr on Feb 6, 2010 2:19 AM CST up reply actions

I freakin love the Packers

You guys are the heroes of the small market world. Keep kicking @$$.

Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged

by Dyl on Feb 6, 2010 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

too bad

that the bills don’t have much promising offense talent

by justinlewis on Feb 8, 2010 5:25 AM CST reply actions

It’s really just the tackles and QB that we’re missing. We’ve got some above average RBs, Lee Evans and a couple young, promising guys at wideout, but nobody with the ability to throw them the ball. The interior of the OL is not even that bad at present, but we don’t have any healthy, experienced tackles to deal with the numerous and exotic blitzes we see from our divisional foes on a regular basis. Thus, the QB ends up on his back, not able to distribute the ball to the talented skill players.

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Feb 9, 2010 2:59 PM CST up reply actions