My Very Abbreviated Super Bowl Preview

by Brandon on Feb 5, 2010 11:00 AM CST in Analysis Comment 7 comments

I was planning to do a detailed Super Bowl preview, but I got lazy and I could never do it as well as Bill Barnwell and Aaron Schatz anyway:

We've covered seven Super Bowls since Football Outsiders launched in 2003, and out of those seven games, Super Bowl XLIV looks like the closest matchup before the fact...

The Saints may be a little bit overdependent on big plays, whether they be deep bombs, kick returns, or the kind of turnovers that Peyton Manning rarely makes. On the other hand, the Colts may be a little bit overdependent on the health of Dwight Freeney's ankle. Put it all in the big blender of matchups, and the result still comes out 50-50. This should be, and hopefully will be, an exciting, high-scoring, and very close game.

There is a lot of analysis in their entire article, maybe a little too much, but all that work for an even matchup?

I've said it all postseason, but turnovers will be the difference in the game. The problem at this point is that the Colts and Saints are both pretty good at protecting the ball, according to Team Rankings, the Colts had 1.4 turnovers per game vs. 1.6 for the Saints. On the other hand, no team was better last season at takeaways then the Saints. And that doesn't mean that one of those teams won't start turning it over in the Super Bowl. Sometimes teams that had been good at avoiding turnovers all season can collapse at the worst possible moment, and I'm specifically thinking of the Vikings two weeks ago. Though you could say the same thing about the Packers in Arizona during the Wild Card game.

One interesting point that Football Outsiders mentioned: the Saints are really good in the red zone on offense and defense. Plus the Colts are a great red zone offensive team. This isn't a key to the game, but I'll be watching the great Colts red zone offense against the great Saints red zone defense.

What are you going to be watching for on Sunday? Or will you just turn in for Favre's Hyundai ad? Predictions?

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Daltrey looks like he hasn't slept in years

He’s got bags under the bagus under his eyes!

by DaveInTucson on Feb 5, 2010 11:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Poor Daltry and Townsend

CBS is probably just pushing these two near corpses out there to whore CSI. I’m sure we’ll hear a few of their songs, then the it will all be capped off at the end with “Who are You” which will be followed by Jim Nantz telling everyone they can hear that song every day of the week at the beginning of all eight different iterations of CSI, and starting this fall don’t miss CSI: Kansas City starring Keith David and Kevin Dillion."

Now that I’ve ranted about my hate for CBS and their geriatric programming, I’m just hoping for a great game like the last few Superbowls, I think the Colts will win.

As for Favre’s Hyundai ad, haven’t they already been beaten to the punch by Sears on this? Har har Brett Favre can’t make a decision Har har! Fuck you Hyundai.

by Charlie Kelly on Feb 5, 2010 11:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

For being 50-50 it sure seems like most people are on the Colts bandwagon

I’m pulling for the Saints a number of reasons. But everyone points to the Minnesota game with the foregone conclusion that it’s no contest for the Colts. Obviously people don’t remember the Giants in 2007.

by Danwood on Feb 5, 2010 11:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The only people who seem to thin it’s going to be not contest for the Colts are the Vikings fans. This actually will probably be a really close game. Both have relatively average defenses and great offenses. If Freeney isn’t able to go at 100%, which he probably won’t be able to do, then things will be easier on the Saints. I think the Colts might have Powers out too, or at least not at 100% which bodes well for the Saints. Another thing is it’s not like the Colts have been untouchable this year. They very easily could have lost 4-5 games this year. I think the Saints have a good chance in this one.

by packallday555 on Feb 6, 2010 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs