Year of the second round pick
by PackApologist on Apr 27, 2010 11:27 PM CDT
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PrintThe last few days I have seen lots of reports on the draft and various team philosophies and one that's always striking to me is the strategies of the Patriots. The belief is that typically a team can get players with talent similar to the first round, but at a cheaper price. Not a bad idea over all; I don't know if I agree, but it's an interesting theory.
This got me thinking about the guys that TT has gotten in the second round since arriving in Green Bay. This led me to an interesting thought, this is really going to be a make or break year for most of our second round draft picks.
Generally the second round picks that TT has made have either been boom or bust, there has been no in between. The first two drafts show this so well, starting with Nick Collins and Terrence Murphy. Murphy's bust may have just been bad luck, but his pick really didn't add much to our team. This was followed up with Darren Colledge and Greg Jennings. Do I need to say more? One is a superstar and the other is going to have a hard time making the team this year. The second round picks are finished up with Brandon Jackson in '07 (a decent third down back but not what we really wanted out of a 2nd round pick), and the class of '08. These guys are Nelson, Brohm, and Lee. Nelson is decent, Brohm washed out of two but I guess Buffalo is planning on him being the starter this year, and the jury is totally out on Lee since he's yet to have a season where he's healthy all year.
Looking at each of these stories, how they've affected the team, and this year's draft it can be seen that this is a critical year for all of these players. If guys like Colledge, Jackson, or Lee don't step and start playing like a second round pick then they are probably going to be gone next year. Also, with the exception of Lee, most of them have their replacement already on the roster.
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I am such a homer
LOL, I still have hopes for little Brandon Jackson. He does seem to produce when he gets opportunities (which is not very often). I just think with that Grant hold out and the money they ended up forking over to him…. their just working the crap out of him.
I mean, anytime you give a guy the ball 25 to 30 times a game——- most likely if he can play at all, he is going to get close to 100 yards if not 100 yards. Which is about right cause he averages about 3.5 to 4 yrds a pop.(Unless it’s 3rd and 3, which is a whole different story LOL) I’m pretty sure if they did that with Jackson it would be close to that too.
Nelson—-Well, with Driver, Jennings, Jones and Finley producing along with having to keep another tight end in because of our O line—- he just doesn’t get many opportunities either. I tell ya what… I don’t see him drop to many balls. Not the best on SP teams though.
Colledge…. well he is an average guard, they dont over pay him. and he is available which is the name of the game. But I will side with him (Just a little :) ) because of the revolving O line. We have been talking about the o line for years it seems like and there has not been continuity for awhile—- which might be a coach /scout thing too.
Brohm, and Lee…… I am right there with ya. I do enjoy reading your posts and I alway’s learn a thing or to. This is by far the best Pack Blog there is, with extreamly Intelligent fan posts. The St Augustine comment on that new tight end just floored me the other day.
Hmm.........
It looks to me like TT might be gambling to much in the second round. An interesting blog though. I will need to do some more resurch but you have my attentiion! Jenning went at pick 20 so you could consider him a first. Brohm was awful. Jackson obviously was too.(thats why we drafted the back we thought he was in Starks) A second round pick does not have to be a you franchise player bud should a safe pick!
GBfan73 is PackApologist your brother? It is okey to disagree though I also enjoy reading his blogs!!!!!!! Altho we do not always agree he is a true fan! I will not argue with that! I enjoy both of your blogs!
No brother for me.
Totally an only child. That’s why I spend way too much time thinking about the Packers.
by PackApologist on Apr 28, 2010 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Good GMs should always hit with a second round pick.(doesnt mean they have to be a hall of hamer but atleast a solid player) So with this many misses what does that say about your buddy TT Packapologist? and dont make me show you the player we could of had at those picks? You have said TT drafts for need right? Then explain Brohm to me and how you let him go for NOTHING?
The best GM's also build their team strictly through the draft
and having good results with their draft picks. It’s hit or miss, like it is for anything else in life.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
HUH?
Good GMs should always hit on second rounders? Based off of what? Good GMs don’t hit on all their firsts, they most certainly won’t hit on all their seconds!! Looking in hindsight is for suckers…anyone can look in hindsight and say “oh you could have had this or done this” but you ignore SO many variables.
By the way, here are a few big busts from Ron Wolf in the second round…I only looked up 5 years (1998-2002) and found 3 out of 5 busts and that is coming from a guy who is considered one of the best modern GMs out there.
2002 Marques Anderson (S)
1999 Fred Vinson (CB)
1998 Jonathon Brown (DE)
Fred Vinson was actually traded to the Seahawks for Ahman Green so that pick wasn’t a total waste.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Apr 28, 2010 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
wolf
As you guys are fond of saying, no one is perfect. However, Wolf`s batting average was higher than most, and certainly higher than TT`s.
by uglyfatpimplynerd on Apr 30, 2010 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
TT's 1st Round picks seem to be a lot better
Good- Aaron Rodgers, BJ Raji, Clay Mathews
Dissapointing- AJ Hawk
Bad- Justin Harrell
Comparing that track record to other teams is quite remarkable. Most teams have flops in the 1st Round almost every other year. Heck, look at St. Louis and you would be surprised with how many flops they’ve had over the past several years in the Top 10.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
I find nothing about A.J. Hawk disappointing.
He’s not Jesus folks. He’s just a beefy tackling machine of a man. That’s all. Oh yeah, he makes a few plays here and there. The only reason every is starting to bad mouth him is because of the Super-Turbo Charged Man also known as Clay Matthews.
A.J. Hawk actually started to show quite a bit more “playmaking ability” (as if leading the team in tackles since he’s been with us isn’t enough). I think that young Clay is inspiring Hawk. Synergy, baby!
When I retire, I want to have Ted Thompson's job!
I'm not saying he's bad by any means
I’m just saying he has not played up to the value of a #5 Overall Pick. That’s all I meant by dissapointing.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
BUT he’s not disappointing like Ernie Sims was though. He’s still a decent valid LB…not some bust like people want to think of him as. You are right though, he hasn’t totally lived up to the hype.
I hope he becomes elite though
I have his jersey with Ron Wolf’s autograph on it! i dont want that to go to waste.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
Good question. LOL
I worked at Lambeau (Fanfest) a year ago and was allowed to wear a Packer jersey, and so I wore my Hawk jersey. Little did I know they would let us get an autograph from Ron Wolf. Well, I didn’t have anything so I ripped off the jersey and handed it to Wolf. I can assure you I had an undershirt on. LOL!
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
Look at the top ten in that draft. Hes doing just fine.
Draft#:1
Mario Williams
Ht/Wt:
Position:DE
Drafted From: North Carolina State
Draft#:2
Reggie Bush
Ht/Wt:
Position:RB
Drafted From: Southern California
Draft#:3
Vince Young
Ht/Wt:
Position:QB
Drafted From: Texas
Draft#:4
D’Brickashaw Ferguson
Ht/Wt:
Position:OT
Drafted From: Virginia
Draft#:5
A.J. Hawk
Ht/Wt:
Position:OLB
Drafted From: Ohio State
Draft#:6
Vernon Davis
Ht/Wt:
Position:TE
Drafted From: Maryland
Draft#:7
Michael Huff
Ht/Wt:
Position:SS
Drafted From: Texas
Draft#:8
Donte Whitner
Ht/Wt:
Position:SS
Drafted From: Ohio State
Draft#:9
Ernie Sims
Ht/Wt:
Position:OLB
Drafted From: Florida State
Draft#:10
Matt Leinart
Ht/Wt:
Position:QB
Drafted From: Southern California
Ouch. 2006 definately wasn't a good draft year
it was so hyped too!
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
should've taken Vernon Davis
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
that was a joke
Ive always thought Davis as somewhat a bust
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
Its was a bad joke then
Davis is a good player he made the probowl last season and when we took Hawk some people thought we should have taken Davis. In the long run Finley will be beter.
On Brohm and Jackson
I guess I didn’t say what I meant to on these guys is that their career is going ot be defined by this year.
On Jackson:
I actually like him too. I think that he’s been a good third down back for us, BUT if you spend a second round on a guy he’d better become more than just a third down back. Or he’d better be a great third down back. Brandon Jackson right now is neither. If he can show that there is more to him this year then he’s in great shape and the pick might work out. If not he has a good chance of being replaced by Starks or something the Pack drafts in the near future. (Even though the TT doesn’t draft for need, we are at the point where we can start drafting a RB high as a luxury)..
On Brohm:
He really did just crash and burn here. I mean complete fail. However there is another franchise that seems to be building around him. The Bills passed on two high profile QB’s this year in order to give him a chance. If he plays well this year (high doubtful, but hey, you never know) suddenly this pick might now look decent, but letting him walk via our practice squad might look bad. Especially since they decided to keep three fullbacks and a tackle who never ever EVER got activated last year. (Can you tell that I’m still bitter about how the roster was arranged last year?)
Just keep in mind…he (Brohm) was here for what one season and a preseason? If we had looked at Rodgers at that point in his career, we would NOT have been happy. There is still a good chance Brohm could be a decent QB. Give him some more time and then we can talk about him some more!
No doubt
The way I typically look at is that not that Brohm is generally horrible, but that Flynn is pretty good. Brohm never really seemed to improve too much while here, but take that with a grain of salt cause we really don’t see backup QB’s much in Green Bay thankfully.
Ultimately he didn’t make the cut here. He couldn’t beat out a seventh round pick who’s a bit on the short side for a starting QB.
by PackApologist on Apr 28, 2010 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah its a shame. I don’t know how much we would have gotten for him though…everyone had a chance to draft him (some twice) and then he looked really ordinary (and I am being nice) in his first full season and the following preseason. Maybe we get a 5th or 6th being optimistic…
Brady Quinn went for that price
and he’s shown more. I really don’t think we would of gotten a bag of chips for Brohm. Nothing against the guy, but he knew wasn’t playing up to snuff. I remember reading some reports from his hometown paper in Louisville that he was worried about not making the team last year.
by PackApologist on Apr 28, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
He passed waivers to make it to our practice squad and stuck there for over a month
everyone passed on right after we cut him… we would not have gotten anything.
We got what he was worth
Buffalo is making a mistake.
Yep
He`s awful. Reminds me of a Bear QB.
by uglyfatpimplynerd on Apr 30, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Flynn is good?
Really? And how would you judge that? By watching him hand off in the 4th quarter of blowouts?
Wait a minute
Trevor — are you saying that McCarthy and Thompson screwed up by cutting Brian Brohm without giving him enough of a chance? I don’t buy that at all. The guy wasn’t catching on in Green Bay and was a bust. I actually give Thompson credit on this one — he screwed up with the pick but quickly cut his loss. Now if only he would show the same balls with Colledge . . . . Giacomo . . . . Harrell . . . .
eh just saying he still has time to turn it around. I don’t know that he would have had much of a chance to develop here anyway since he fell to 3rd string. He gets very little time with the good guys in practice as a third stringer. all I was saying was that he still has a chance to do something, not that he WILL though.
No they screwed up by drafting him!
I assume they were confident in Rodgers so why did they nof go out and get a veteran back up rather that drafting two rookies? Neither would have been ready to step in and play.
+1
I couldn’t believe they drafted Brohm. It was mostly embarrasing to me because throughout the entire Combine and Offseason, I was calling Brohm a bust. I think I bashed that guy more than anyone else in the country. Low and behold, Green Bay drafts him. I sunk into the couch in utter embarrassment in front of my friends. Gosh, how dissapointing.
Not only did I call a guy out, he’s goes to my team! Worse then that, it was a useless pick! I can understand if you are unsure of whether Rodgers was the real deal or not, completely understand. However, that is the time where you sign a veteran QB. You don’t waste a top draft pick for a backup! If Rodgers didn’t pan out, you start the veteran. In the next draft, you draft a new franchise QB. Argh, such a waste!
It’s not Brohm’s fault. That was clearly a miss by TT and McCarthy. It’s a hit or miss. Even with the miss, it just doesn’t make sense to address the QB position that early in the draft.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
I didn’t hate it at the time but I wasn’t one of those in the camp that was sure Rodgers was going to make it. First I had injury concerns (we all did), second I was never a Rodgers fan coming into the league (thought his release was slow and he wouldn’t make it as a pro. I was okay with the Brohm pick as insurance in case Rodgers bombed out…we’d have another waiting in the wings to jump into his place. Could have been a situation like SD had a few years ago with Brees and Rivers. It didn’t pan out quite like that, but I am totally okay with how it turned out! haha
If your not sure of Rodgers don’t you bring back Brett? I don’t want to get in the whole Brett Favre story all I am saying is that if Rodgers goes out and sucks and Brett ends up with Viking playing good ball TT and MM probably don’t have jobs. They must of known and believed in Rodgers!
I hear what you're saying
I was under the impression that the team was confident in Rodgers and felt it would be unfair to Rodgers to let Brett come back. That’s where it doesn’t make any sense. I sided with management in letting Brett go and still stand by that. It makes no sense in drafting a QB early in the following draft then.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
Brohm had to be pretty bad for them to let him go that fast
To give up on a player that fast says something. It was a bad awful pick.
Brandon Jackson
When Jackson was drafted the idea was to make him the feature back. Thompson went into the draft that year needing a starting RB. The draft was light on RBs and there was a run on them right before the Packers picked in the second round, with the result being that Jackson was the only remaining RB who had been penciled in as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Basically, he was a panic pick because th team had nobody else and there were no other rookie RBs left. This is just another example of Thompson maneuvering himself into a corner (there are many others).
Jackson seemed like a bad pick to me when TT picked him, and that’s exactly what he’s been. TT doesn’t have much of an eye for Rb’s. Hopefully Starks will turn out a little better.
by packallday555 on Apr 29, 2010 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions
No argument on that
The other half of the story is that TT maneuvered himself out of the corner with the trade for Grant. Now Grant may not a game changing running back, but he is solid starter.
by PackApologist on Apr 29, 2010 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Very true…though if he didn’t do that trade, would we have drafted one that next season? Forte and Ray Rice went in the second (remember we had THREE second rounders that year). Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, and Steve Slaton went in the third. Tashard Choice in the fourth…Hightower in the fifth. I wonder how that owuld have changed things. While most of them are still unproven, they all would have been better than Jackson! Imagine if we had ended up with Ray Rice!!!!
Imagine if we had ended up with Ray Rice!!!!
Haha don’t even say stuff like this! It’s just to sad/upsetting/disappointing to think about!
by packallday555 on Apr 30, 2010 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Has Jackson really had a fair chance to prove himself though?
I don’t see McCarthy giving him much of a chance. Not that I’m a believer in him, but I don’t think he was given a fair chance to do anything. He was injured for most of his rookie season, then before he got healthy, TT traded for Ryan Grant. Grant was on the field the remainder of the season. That offseason, he demands a new contract with high incentives and different clauses. After that, we really only saw Jackson play on 3rd Downs. Perhaps it is something in Grant’s contract, I’m not sure. My point is though, we never truly gave Jackson a chance to succeed.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
meh…he hasn’t been all that impressive with the chances he’s had. Honestly if he came out and kicked butt, we’d all be talking about him differently but when he gets the ball nothing exciting happens. He has chances both in the preseason and in 3rd down scenarios during the regular season. He just isn’t that good…and he seems to get dinged up a lot too which is a bad trait in a starter!
Player, YPC
Ryan Grant, 4.4
Ahman Green, 3.9
Deshawn Wynn, 3.2
Brandon Jackson, 3.0
Even compared to the other 3rd down back on the roster (Green) he is doing much worse.
That was under a really, really limited role though. Getting most of his carries on 3rd downs when defenses were playing in their nickel packages. Jackson seems like he is nothing more then average.
by packallday555 on Apr 30, 2010 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions
He’s been doing worse and worse each season. While his YPC were up in 2008, his rushing attempts have been going down which means the staff doesn’t have the confidence in him. Heck they brought back Ahman Green because they didn’t believe in him. I would say this staff is pretty much done with him. If he’s going to catch on at some point, it will have to be with another team!
No improvement no hope. Jackson is done now. His carries will go to Starks and thank God. He was a bad draft pick.
Don just assume Starks would beat out Jackson
Starks was a sixth round pick and coming off a major injury.
I wish Brohm all but the best in Buffalo
He never truly had a chance to prove himself here in Green Bay, but he also didn’t give our staff much of a choice as he had poor performances in Preseason. We generally get fixed into the thought that QB’s should be groomed successfully here in GB because we have had an excellent track record with QB’s over the past couple decades.
I think that’s where Brohm gets most of his scrutiny. If he can’t cut it in GB as a backup, he won’t succeed anywhere else. That is totally not true. Green Bay runs a very complex offense that even Aaron Rodgers had a difficult time picking up when he first arrived. Perhaps our offense just didn’t fit Brohm’s style. One thing to note is, both Brohm and Rodgers came from 2 very different college offensive systems. Rodgers played in the Spread Offense in college, which is a relatively good transition into our offense as McCarthy loves to spread the field. Brohm came from a Pro Style Offense that involved very few spread formations. The 2 have their pros and cons. Fortunate for Rodgers, it was an easier transition that still took him a few years. It was a big transition for Brohm.
I think Brohm will do alright in Buffalo. I’m really pulling for him. He never seemed comfortable in our offense, but that doesn’t mean he was a bad QB. He just didn’t fit our offense. I wish him the best and hopefully he will hold onto the starting QB role.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
Breakingnews The Green Bay Packers have been in contact with FA CB/KR/PR Adam "Pacman" Jones about a possible tryout
I am not joking
There is talk out there that its happened but it hasn’t gained a ton of traction yet. Type Adam Jones and Packers into google and you’ll see it. I’ll believe it when I see it. I have a hard time believing he’s changed but honestly he’ll be a super low risk at this point (financially speaking) as long as he doesn’t jack up our chemistry.
Yeah I did do that
All I found was a few sites relying on some random tweets. Oh well, we’ll all find out soon enough.
As for if this is a good thing or not….
Well, to warn most of you, I’m a big fan of Michael Lombardi. He typically points out that Jones has never really been a good cover man and most of his impact has come in the return game. If we use him like that or as a nickel, and he comes cheap, then there’s nothing really wrong with this….if we are expecting to be a shut down corner we are going to be disappointed.
by PackApologist on Apr 28, 2010 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions
He’s better in coverage then people give him credit for. Regardless, he could be a good nickel or dime back. I wouldn’t mind us signing him. Seems like we have the veteran presence to keep him under control in the locker room, and most of all he’ll be living in Green Bay haha!
by packallday555 on Apr 28, 2010 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Well there are fewer high class strip clubs
At most he could hit what? Oval Office and Snaps?
by PackApologist on Apr 29, 2010 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Here is a source
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/385272-adam-pacman-jones-ready-and-waiting-by-the-phone
That’s all I could find and there’s not much traction.
Duke Rousse has been working with Adam “Pacman” Jones since January—two-a-day training sessions working on speed, agility, quickness, and position specific drills working on ball skills, fluidity, and coverage.
“The Duke’s Academy,” in Kenner, Louisiana, is no fool’s school.
Rousse is also currently training Dez Bryant, Craig Steltz, Ryan Clark, and Darren Sharper. The fastest of that bunch, according to Rousse, is Jones. Rousse says he’s running in the low 4.4s/high 4.3s.
Jones isn’t just adding speed. He’s also been adding muscle. In January, he showed up to the training facility weighing 160 lbs. Today, Jones tipped the scales at 185 lbs.
…
Besides Detroit, among the teams interested, Rousse pointed out two teams that have publicly closed the book on Jones, Cincinnati and San Francisco, and one surprise—the Green Bay Packers.
That’s the only support I’ve found so far.
When I retire, I want to have Ted Thompson's job!
I think the reason for this is
because Teddy often takes players that are considered a bit of a reach in the second round. Perhaps this point was already made but I haven’t waded through all the posts so far. Let’s look at the list of second round picks we’ve made under Thompson:
2005: Nick Collins, Terrence Murphy
2006: Daryn College, Greg Jennings
2007: Brandon Jackson
2008: Jordy Nelson, Brian Brohm, Patrick Lee
2009: N/A
2010: Mike Neal
This is based purely off of memory, but other than Brohm, most of those picks were considered to be a bit high for their respective players. In particular I remember Jennings getting several 4-5 round grade by the various publications. Neal seems to have been generally placed around the same place this year. Obviously, you can’t know for sure where the teams generally put them, but it gives you somewhat of an idea about the risks Teddy takes in the second around. This completely explains the boom or bust that has happened with our picks here.
At least his 1st Round picks have been better overall
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
FALSE-I disagree
In particular I remember Jennings getting several 4-5 round grade by the various publications.
I remember being really excited about him in ‘06 and hoping that he wouldn’t be scooped up before we picked. Here’s my source, where’s yours?
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2006_WR (See Jennings)
On the other hand, I hadn’t really heard of Mike Neal this year and SI as well as nfldraftscout.com had him no higher than the 4th round.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2010_DT (See Neal)
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/2010/draft/players/17961.html
Nonetheless, I have felt that some of the biggest “reach” players that TT has selected have been in the second round.
However, I will not delude myself for one nanosecond and try to claim that I know more about the ins and outs of prospect rating and draft board organizing. I know that they watch WAY more film than anyone in the media or any bloggers or fans. So why do we act like we know the “actual” player rankings better than them, thus denoting this pick or that pick as a “reach?”
Just sayin’…
When I retire, I want to have Ted Thompson's job!
I'm sure not everyone felt that way
but I know a lot of them did. Scott Wright, for example, had Jennings ranked outside of the top 3 rounds: http://www.draftcountdown.com/archive/2006/2006-Top-Overall.php – Jennings was 109 overall.
There’s no way to get a real consensus about where a prospect is ranked at draft time, but from what I was reading he was a reach. I certainly am happy they did it now, but at the time I was skeptical.
Every draft pick is taking a chance on someone!
:-)
Every single player is inevitably a boom or bust prospect.
They boom if they make the team, end up starting, and have a productive career. Beyond that is icing on the cake. Otherwise, they bust.
Every “safe” or “eilte” prospect is also just an injury away from becoming a bust.
When I retire, I want to have Ted Thompson's job!
Little late to the party here, but I wanted to comment on Hawk and Jackson…
They’ve done everything that’s been asked of them. Period. Y’know, everybody gets their undies in a bunch when players question or rebel against their coaches (which is valid), but the flip-side of that is you’ve got to praise or at least respect a guy who works hard to fit into the scheme and DO HIS JOB. Jackson and Hawk have done exactly that, and have done so with success for the team (and themselves!). So, everybody, just please get off their back.
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