The 2010 NFL Preview: Can The Packers Beat The Vikings?
by Brandon on Jul 13, 2010 9:00 AM CDT
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintAs much as I love to read previews of the upcoming season, I'll probably start with the Football Outsiders Almanac, I'm not into writing them. I'm more interested in discussing about where the Green Bay Packers are struggling as a team (so they can do something to fix it). When I have tried to write a detailed season preview, I've usually ended up picking the same division winners as last season.
Every season the first question I have is whether they can win the NFC North. They don't necessarily have to beat all the teams in the division to win the crown, but it sure doesn't hurt. I was reading a statistical preview of the NFC North at WhatIfSports, and it said the Packers had a 64% chance of winning at Lambeau vs. the Vikings and a 57% chance in Minnesota. I'm not questioning the statistical analysis, but after watching two heartbreaking losses to the Vikings last season, I'm not ready to say they are more likely to win both of their games against them next season.
While I'm optimistic in 2010, I don't know have the answer to my Vikings question. The Packers are capable, they've taken steps to improve the team in 2010, but do you think it's enough to beat the Vikings?
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First time posting....
Thanks for the great tidbits of Packer info during the drought!
Feeling scorned from those last 2 games as well. I’d be happy with a split at this point…
GO PACK GO!
Those probabilities suggest about a 52% chance of a split, a 36% chance of a sweep by the Packers, and a 15% chance of a sweep by the Vikings. (Rounding errors, etc.) I think that if you consider the possibility of Favre not returning and what the Vikings look like in that case, plus the possibility of a sub-par surgery recovery by Favre, that might be pretty reasonable.
With less rounding error: Split 48%, Packers 36.5 %, Vikings 15.5 %.
by Packer Logician on Jul 13, 2010 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
It all depends on Favre
If he returns and if he plays at the same level as last year, it will be very tough for the Packers to beat the ‘queens. However, at some point Favre has to get old, doesn’t he? Doesn’t he?
Last year the Packers loaded up to stop Peterson, and Favre absolutely killed them in both games. That’s the danger of pairing an elite quarterback with a very good offensive line and an elite running back — defensive coordinators have to key on one or the other, but it’s very had to do both. In the first game last year, I think that the Packers purposely chose to try to sell out to stop Peterson because up until then the ’queens had focused on their running game. For whatever reason, the Packers tried the same strategy, basically, in the second game, with, basically, the same results.
However, at some point Favre has to get old, doesn’t he? Doesn’t he?
You’d think so but at this point who really knows haha! I think it’d be hard for him to have the kind of season he did again just cause he performed so well but you really never know with him.
In the first game last year, I think that the Packers purposely chose to try to sell out to stop Peterson because up until then the ’queens had focused on their running game. For whatever reason, the Packers tried the same strategy, basically, in the second game, with, basically, the same results.
Pretty frustrating right? Especially since our run defense probably could have managed to do a solid job against AP without selling out to stop him. Yet again, we chose to rush 3-4, and again gave Favre 4+ seconds to throw many times.
by packallday555 on Jul 13, 2010 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
If he returns and if he plays at the same level as last year…
I’d say that the former is far more likely than the latter, given that he never played at that level in 18 previous NFL seasons.
However, at some point Favre has to get old, doesn’t he? Doesn’t he?
That is why the most likely scenario is that he returns and doesn’t play at the same level as last year. :)
-
The glass is more than half-full.
depends on pass rush
The way to beat the Viqueens is to literally beat Favre. They need to get some pass rush and be willing to take 3-4 roughing the passer penalties because you know the zebras will have a tutu on Favre all day long. Just follow the blueprint drawn up by the Saints.
Favre will be back. The only thing that will keep him away is if the league and Union agree to a process for HGH testing this year and that isn’t going to happen. I know that no one will mention his juicing because he’s got this hero persona but when a guy plays better at 40 than he did at 30, without training, something just ain’t natyral. Just think of him as Roger Clemens in a football uniform
you cant test for hgh
something tells me even the mafia wouldn't call on greg walker if a hit was needed.
-MarketMaker
Don't Forget
We played the Vikes last year while we were struggling. Clay Matthews was just not yet at top form, the O-Line was in terrible shape, and our safeties were awful. I think each of these areas are greatly improved this year.
Tru Dat...
Good point Aaron. THis year Matthews will be a much bigger threat for the viqueens. He’ll probably be doubled leaving more possibilities for Woodson and Jones to create pressure! Getting pressure on Favre is undoubtedly important, but the Saints did it by bringing only 4 on most downs, they really didn’t blitz much. So our pass rushers have to be on top of their game. When Capers does blitz, it has to be creative and get home! He can also use zone blitzes more bringing extra LB but dropping a DL.
THe OL should be much better this year. Both Tauscher and Clifton should be healthier this year than last and that can only help! A big key is going to be Finley… The queens just don’t have anyone that can cover him!!! He’s going to be a HUGE key to beating them!
Remember the Packers got poached by the biggest stat-padder in the NFC North, Jared Allen.
Call it inflammatory, but this absolute “beast” of a pass rusher had all of two (or maybe less) sacks aganst the LIONS. That’s just sad.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 13, 2010 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
HUH?
I don’t see what him having (one actually last year…though three in 2008) only 1 sack against the Lions has to do with anything. Its not like we savaged them or something. In fact the second game, our entire team only had 2 sacks on the Lions. How sad does that make US then?
Sure in 2009 his stats were padded by OUR ineptitude, but in past seasons that wasn’t the case. Allen is kind of a tool on the field, but he’s a fun guy off the field. He’s one of the most consistent pass rushers in the league over the past 3 years. Last year was an enigma but I think his past shows that isn’t always the case. If you want to rip on him, at least find the right material to do so.
Here is your material:
He’s a tool.
He padded a mediocre 2009 season by KILLING Rodgers
He was a jerk in KC
He can be a cheap shot kinda guy (and a hypocrite for complaining when its returned)
Anyway, not defending him…I just think its a weak argument to take one season and try to characterize a career on that.
He got 8 sacks vs our BACKUP LT's
Had Clifton been able to play and healthy he gets one in 2 games… In the other 14 games he had 5 sacks!!!! Hows that for a premier pass rusher? He’s very over-rated, IMO…
I think he’s overrated as well. He provides little against the run, and usually overruns the pocket when playing against at least average LT’s.
by packallday555 on Jul 13, 2010 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions
actually...
its 7 sacks in the rest of the games. I don’t like being the guy to defend Jared Allen but guys at least get your ripping material right here!
http://www.nfl.com/players/jaredallen/gamelogs?id=ALL454745
…and to say that he gets one in two games is kinda dumb as none of us know what he’d get. Sure the year before he got one in two games but you can’t just grab that number and use it.
anyway, enough defending Allen for me…just get the stats right.
13.5 sacks
The 1 extra sack you are bringing up is in the playoffs.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
To be technical...
It was 7.5 sacks against Green Bay’s LG playing LT in Colledge, and 3rd string LT in Lang.
Then 6 sacks in the other 14 games of the Regular Season.
If the Vikings honestly think they are getting their money’s worth and have nothing to worry about, well, they are in for a ride. That is not what a premier pass rusher does. I’m pretty confident we’ll do well against Allen with a healthy Offensive Line.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
7.5 against the Packers and 7 against other teams. In 2008 he had one against the Packers and 13.5 against other teams. Yeah 2009 was clearly not as good a year if you take the packer games out. The entire Viking D Line had a down year IMO compared to past years. I hope its a sign of things to come!
trend
I expect that trend to continue… Allen wasn’t productive and part of the reason was the DT weren’t doing there job as well. But Allen isn’t going to continue to be a dominant player. He is pretty much a one trick pony as a pass rusher. Just has his speed move and no bull rush, and no other moves to counter with. Anyone that can shut down his speed rush will stonewall him!!!
I disagree
I think he has a decent bull rush. He’s just not consistent with anything though. sometimes, he just disapears.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
As a pass rusher he’s pretty good but I think his two biggest rips are that he’s one dimensional (only a pass rusher) and that he can disappear (as you indicated). I still think he’s a pretty good DE though…even if last year wasn’t great.
I think it is not so much Allen slowing down but the Williams Wall slowing down. I think the push isn’t there so the QB steps up in the pocket Allen is slid right by. This is how partially how the Packers expect to increase our pass rush by getting push up the middle. This is one area I expect a big gain on the Vikes there going to decline more while we improve in this area.
Thats what I was getting at...
Although, I do think Allen is still a one trick pony as a speed rusher!
Only sacks the Packers...
I am a Vikings fan, but I am not here to talk trash. I have actually always respected the Packers and was a grudging admirer of Favre, long before he wore purple. It probably helps that I have lived outside the region for 25 years now.
I’ll just point out that criticizing Allen because he only seemed to sack the packers last year is a little like the famous criticism of Cris Carter that “He only catches touchdown passes”
Allen had a very solid year last year. He came up huge against our primary division rival, and drew constant double teams the rest of the year. The attention paid to Allen in the Cowboys Massacre, allowed Edwards to do his thing. (Oh Lordie, that was fun! Being old school, I hate the Cowboys way more than the Packers.)
When the Packers game planned to stop Peterson at all costs, it didn’t mean Peterson had a bad day, despite the down stats. If it weren’t for Peterson, Favre wouldn’t have had the opportunities he did. I think everyone could agree with that, right?
Likewise, Allen is actually a pretty solid run stopper, but because of the supporting cast, they tend to let him loose to rampage in the backfield. Even on a sack-less day, if he is commanding double and triple teams all day, he has done his job.
It is a team sport and I am one Vikings fan who is very glad to have #69 on our defensive line and not on an opponents!
I do agree with those that say the William’s are slowing a bit. Hopefully we will be playing with a healthy secondary this season (hasn’t happened in a few years) and we’ll be able to field a complete defensive package.
Allens sacks vs the Packers were against our backup LT, in other words our LG and another ROOKIE OL… Clifton and most other good LT handle him one on one the majority of the time! I know the Packers w/ Clifton healthy rarely gave him help… Maybe a chip by a RB going by once in awhile but thats about it.
I still think the Williams’ not getting much of inside push prevented Allen from getting around the corner.
I think you can add Favre to the stat padding...
How many times did he change plays to passing for TD’s instead of Peterson running for them? He threw 3 and 4 TD’s against us… I’ld imagine he would have had 2 nd 2 but he changes plays to pad his TD stats… HIs yardage vs us wasn’t great. 2470 and 244.
Um
What’s your point? Favre throws the ball all over the field, the ‘queens receiver gets tackled at the 1, and then when Favre throws a TD pass it’s cheap and should only count for 5 points?
Face it — Favre owned the Packers last year. He threw 7 touchdown passes because that’s how many they needed to win. If he needed to throw 10, he’d have thrown 10. If he needed to throw for 300 yards in both games, he’d have thrown for 300 yards.
point
My point is that like Allen, Favre has a penchent for padding his stats!!! He changed plays regularly in GB too… All in an effort to keep himself ahead of Manning in the stats dept… He care ALOT more about stats than he lets on! And I mentioned he passing stats, in regards to yards, were not exceptional. Warner had 440+ and Ben had 500… Favre’s numbers were modest in comparison. And he did change plays to get his TD passes, IMO!!!
So, when Aaron Rodgers refuses to throw the ball away and takes a sack instead, is he padding his stats? A sack doesn’t hurt his QB rating, whereas an incomplete pass does.
If the best you can do to criticize Brett Favre is that he throws too many cheap touchdown passes, well, you aren’t very creative. There isn’t any such thing as a “cheap” touchdown pass. The object of the game is to score touchdowns.
Are you refusing to acknowledge that he pads his stats?
He did it repeatedly… Did he “need” to change a run to a pass so he could get more TD’s? NO!!! Not when you have RB’s like Peterson and Green in GB!
Aaron holding the ball is to try to make a play on a called pass… Favre changing plays to pad his TD’s in selfish!!! Not even the same concept… Its obvious that Favre was trying to pad his stats for quite awhile!
seriously
you have to let it go. he broke your heart———we get it.
what are you going to do when they retire his number and put it up in the ring of honor at lambeau? will you and ricky williams go on a pilgrimmage and find yourselves.
then ask yourselves———quoting nancy kerrigan, " WHY!!!!! WHY!!!!"
I was over him the second he retired! Could really care less at this point… He’s on the arch-rival, hope he fails miserably! Didn’t watch him w/ the Jets and tried to watch as little as possible last year.
Any particular reason you haven’t answered the question? Or is it that you know its true?!
okay then...
just let the bitterness die off a little bit. When you take up every opportunity to try to discredit what he’s done it (both past and present) makes you sound whiney and bitter.
Every elite QB changes plays at the line. Sure they help the QB’s stats, but that’s what they do to win games. Like Favre, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady do it all the time. So they too should be criticized for padding their stats.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
elite QB
Of course every elite QB changes plays… BUT McCarthy, and I’m sure other HC and OC, are always looking in film to make sure the changes Rodgers made (and Favre when he was still here) are correct based on the D and personnel group the of the offense. If not then the QB has no accountability. Much like #4 had when Sherman was coach.
I agree he needs to get over it but I don’t think it’s because he was heart broken by him. It’s probably more so that he just doesn’t like him any longer. (And I kind of get the sense that, that’s how a lot of fans feel.)
by packallday555 on Jul 13, 2010 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
I admit that I’m in that category. I ain’t heartbroken, but I simply do not like Favre anymore. I’m not afraid of him though, and feel the Queens are gonna get hit with the injury bug, Favre will lose to the Packers this year, and Favre will regret coming back again.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
by Jabooty on Jul 15, 2010 7:04 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Its obvious that Favre was trying to pad his stats for quite awhile!
Oh, so that’s why he has the record for most interceptions thrown.
Duh
He was trying to pad those as well :)!
by packallday555 on Jul 13, 2010 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Yeah, I don’t know if the same logic really applies to Favre. It’s not like played a couple of games against a defense full of back-ups or something. Sure, he had a lot of short TD passes but so what? A TD is a TD. Whether or not he changed the plays to pad his stats is pretty much just speculation.
by packallday555 on Jul 13, 2010 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions
padding stats?
rodgers has 58 td’s passing and 10 rushing td’s the last 2 seasons.
how many of his td passes are from 5-10 yards and from 0-5 yards you ask?
well here they are.
rodgers has 12 td passes from 5-10 yard range
rodgers has 17 td passes from 1-5 yard range
if my calculations are correct -———— that’s 50% of his td passes are 10 yards or less—————stat padding?
plus, 5 out of his 10 rushing td’s are 1 yarders. stat padding?
i’m sure ryan grant would have liked to get a couple of those cheap td’s. to bad rodgers changed the play at the line of scrimmage.
this in no indication on what i believe, but just pointing out a few facts to the few that constantly try to erase history.
imo—-i was glad to watch favre perform his craft in green bay and will continue to support rodgers in the future. like i said earlier, we can have potentially 30 years of great qb play———-that’s a rarity———enjoy it——don’t destroy it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When did I ever say he wasn’t great? I just said I think he pads his stats trying to keep Manning from breaking his records.
Honestly I don’t think Favre cares THAT much about the records. I do think he cares about the money and about himself but I don’t think he pads the stats. I’ve never watched his games and felt that he’s out there padding stats. The same could easily be said about Manning I guess to though since he gets to choose his own plays so I guess if Favre were padding his stats, Manning could be padding his to catch up so all is fair and love and war then! haha
Striving to be the best to ever play isn’t the same as striving to pad your stats to set records. I would hope my quarterback is striving to be the best to ever play the game! Imagine if your QBs goal was just to be pretty good and maybe win a playoff game or two here and there.
hand in hand
They go hand in hand… Without all the records he is never considered among the best!!! Only by padding stats can he achieve the exalted status some of you still give him! He won his share of games, but except for during the Holmgren years has never been successful in the post-season. I could care less about his regular season records, I care about playoff performances. And in those #4 has come up wanting for well over a decade. So some still call him messiah, I call him a stat padder! Whose whining, me for seeing his limited post-season success or you for glorifying his regular season?!!!
Not true
Montana is considered by many to be the best QB and he doesn’t hold any records. Many of the greats had no where near record breaking stats yet they are still considered among the best!
But
Yeah But they had outstanding post season success!!! Favre does not! So 2 ways to get there… Have tremendous post season success OR hold regular season records.
That's not what you said.
They go hand in hand… Without all the records he is never considered among the best!!! Only by padding stats can he achieve the exalted status some of you still give him!
In addition, what do we make of Elway then. Was he not a hall of famer until his final two years? He had a .500 playoff record, no titles, no real records to speak of…
What about Steve Young. He only won one title. He was never anywhere near the records. Heck he didn’t start until he was like 24.
If Manning doesn’t reach Favre’s records and never wins another title, is he still among the greats?
I just think that argument is a slippery slope. There are TONS of factors that go into peoples evaluations of who is the best ever.
Sorry I didn't clarify better.
I guess I assumed you knew that post-season success also plays a huge role in how QB’s are ranked by most. Or that Favres post-season success is modest at best to the likes of Montana!
i just
pointed out facts about rodgers padding stats,.according to your logic anyway. 50% is quite high wouldn’t you agree? before you you go off on another ridiculous rant i suggest you look up the facts.
by the way favre threw 7 td’s against us last year and only 2 were 10 yards or less and yes, petersen had 2 one yard td runs -———-surprisingly favre didn’t audible out of those run plays just to stick it to thompson --right? or as you expressed “padded his stats”
Notice
I didn’t mention that Favre padded his stats during McCarthy’s tenure as HC. Only when Sherman was the HC and I think now that he has another HC who #4 controls, not who controls him… Coaching is something that Favre always needed, and it seems hard coaching too. Holmgren and McCarthy didn’t let Favre change plays unless it made sense and was held accountable to those changes.
I get back to an earlier point
There is no such thing as a cheap touchdown pass. You have to cross the goal line to score. It’s equally cheap for the running back to take credit for a 1-yard touchdown run.
Stat Padding?
To become embroiled in silly arguments about stat padding accomplishes nothing. We all know the only stat that counts is W-L!
Beating the Vikings all depends on the team being settled and focused on executing their game plan, whatever it is. Last year’s Vikings games showcased all the immaturities the team had. They came out over-emotional and got behind, Rodgers tried to do too much and held the ball (Colledge “playing” LT against Jarred Allen didn’t help), and the ST sucked big donkeys. All the weaknesses the Pack have had since McCarthy got here were on full display. Hopefully they can put a stop to it this year. (…and I like McCarthy, btw, but his teams have always lost their professionalism in big games. Don’t know why that is.)
Sure, but they were at rock bottom looking up, fighting for their lives. If our defense could play like that every game watch out. Let’s see if Mike’s team can handle hype.
by ericforeman04 on Jul 13, 2010 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
BEEN DOWN SO LONG, BOTTOM LOOK LIKE UP
Bedard recently made a valid point in an ESPN blog. The Packers play better when there back is against the wall. The cause is immaturity. The cure is the natural maturation process the NFL forces on all teams. Hopefully, they are older and wiser this year.
Biggest issues: O-Line, pass defense
- In ’09, Rodgers was sacked a total of 14 times by the Vikings, including once for a safety. The O-Line looked better the second half of the season, but the Vikings will surely give them a strong test again this year.
- The pass defense needs to be ready. You can be sure Favre will be taking notes on how Roethlisberger and Warner picked apart our secondary for big-time yards. The Packers will have a much better chance if they can slow down that passing game.
D∈T
Funny how we talk, talk, talk about the Vikings and overlook the rest of the confrence!!
I know this article is headlined “Can the Pack beat the Vikes in 2010” and trust me there is no love lost for our rivals to the west, but if all we do is look at beating the Vikes and don’t focus on what the rest of division is doing we can all but hang up our helmets early. I really feel that we have a team that is good enough to trounce the “boys” in purple all day long(with or w/out Brett), but we need to remember that the Bears did some serious movement in the off season whether or not it will come together for them this year will remain to be seen but don’t forget they have a team comprised of players who a couple of years ago made it to the SB and are still talent laden, so while you keep focusing on good ‘ole Favre and AP remember we have a battle coming from Chi’ town and they love to beat us every year!!! Also don’t forget the Lions although they have not had a winning season in a long, long time they could still surprise everyone and win more than just a couple of games….
DREB
by Packer-fan-atic77 on Jul 13, 2010 12:14 PM CDT reply actions
It was what, 4 years ago now that they went to the SB?
How many of those players are still on that team? How many of them are old and peaked since, or during, that SB run like Urlacher? Not to say I’m not worried about them, but they aren’t the Bears of 4 years ago, so don’t treat them like they are.
OVERLOOK?
Any team overlooks anyone and they’re in trouble. Look what happened in the Tampa Bay game. The irony is that it took that game to wake up the Packers who performed brilliantly thereafter.
Two articles mentioning the Vikings in a row...
Someone is trying to get some excitement in here. I think we have a good chance of beating them this year. We addressed our Oline and pass rush (somewhat) in the off season. They stayed kinda status quo even if Favre comes back. I don’t think we were TOO far off from competing solidly with them last year but they were definitely the better team early on when we faced them.
I agree with Trevor. Without anyone playing a game yet this season, it looks like we made improvements in key areas (O-line, Defensive Secondary, and to an extent pass rush), without too many key losses. Yes losing Kampman will hurt, but we did make the playoffs without him so I think we will be just fine in that respect. It will be interesting to see who wins the starting safety spot alongside Collins, who starts across from Matthews as the other outside LB and who starts opposite Woodson. Can Harris come back and contribute or will we be looking at having Williams starting with Lee, Underwood, Bush, or Blackmon playing more significant minutes?
The Vikings have a few questions, first being if Favre will be back. Then what their defense will be like with Winfield coming off injury, Griffin’s ACL recovery, Henderson’s recovery from his leg fracture, their questionable safety play from the previous year, and the whole Star Caps case (which probably won’t result in any suspensions, however since it is still an open case it does deserve mention). Also, who steps up to cover Chester Taylor’s shoes? Gerhart was good in college, but he hasn’t played in the NFL yet, will he end up being like Ron Dayne and being a bust in the NFL. Also, can Peterson hold on to the ball? Matthews broke out in the game at the dome by ripping that ball away from Peterson, and after that it seemed that Peterson would cough up the ball at the most inopportune times.
by Gotty033 on Jul 13, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
1) i think we all know Brett is coming back
2) Winfeild came off of injury middle of last season. Its just a matter of can he play at the level he was playing at before the injury
3) Henderson and Griffin are my biggest concerns even over the safety play. it seemed like our safeties were kind of catching on late in the season and playoffs after that Bears game.
4) The combination of Peterson/Gerhart has the potential to be alot more deadly being as Gerhart and Peterson can really knock a defense out with their power and strength. If i was a linebacker I’d hate to have to go against Peterson one play and turn around and have to try to tackle a fresh Gerhart too.
5) I believe with time Peterson will learn to stop fighting for that extra one yard unless its 2 and 1. Alot of times when he keeps fighting for extra yardage he gets stripped.
by vikesfan4lyf on Jul 14, 2010 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Gerhart
You can have Gerhart… Just a big power back, nothing more, IMO. In college he ran over LB that were smaller and slower than he was. That won’t be the case in the NFL, where the players are the biggest and fastest! Besides that Gerhart and Peterson are both the same RB, except that AD is faster and more powerful than Gerhart. How many carries do you really think Gerhart is going to steal from AD? Personally, I hope its alot, cuz that makes the queens easier to beat!!! At least Taylor was a compliment to him, he was great at the things AD wasn’t as good at. Who’s going to get all those 3rd down receptions for 1st downs now? Gerhart certainly isn’t a 3rd down back, and its not a strength of Peterson’s either. He’s OK at it, but its not what he is best utilized at…
1) Yup.
2) I don’t think he can…I think he’s in the same boat as Al Harris.
3) I agree…CB could be interesting even with Lito out there.
4) I don’t agree. By being the same kind of runner, the defense can gear up to stop that style of run…what made the Chester/AP combo so dangerous was that they were so different you had to totally change up your defense. Time will tell on Gerhart, I liked him in the draft, but I don’t think he’s a Chester replacement.
5) Based on what? He seems to deny that he has a problem, I think his solution is in how he holds the ball but he has shown no interest in changing that. Instead he is focusing on strength by using really heavy ball and strength has NEVER been an issue for THAT guy!
I agree on pretty much everything. I don’t really see AP/Gerhart being a better duo then AP/Taylor. Neither of them can come close to being as effective as Taylor was on 3rd down for them. Maybe in a couple of years but not this year.
by packallday555 on Jul 14, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
It'll be interesting
I know a lot of Vikes fans like to think they “blew us out” last season both games but that wasn’t the case too me. Both games were relatively close but between our OL and pass defense it was obvious why we couldn’t beat them.
Too many times last season Rodgers was sacked by the Vikes. And too many of those sacks basically ended up being drive killers for us. This coming season we SHOULD have Clifton and Tauscher healthy, and if not, we should have two good back-ups in Buluga and Lang. As well as getting Spitz back, who could possibly take over for Colledge depending on how he looks in training camp. The OL should be better, and the depth on our OL is certainly better.
The pass defense should be better too, though I think how our pass rush performs, and how Capers calls the game will have more of an effect. Matthews should be better, as well as Jones, and hopefully Raji moving to NT helps us collapse the pocket more.
Honestly though, I’m probably equally as worried about the Bears. For the simple fact that we always, always seem to have a tough time beating them. And obviously this past offseason they made some pretty big moves in signing Martz, Peppers, Taylor, and Manuemala (sp?). Their OL looks like it’s going to better by virtue of moving some guys around, and the additions of Taylor and Manuemala will help the OL out. Peppers should help the pass rush, and getting Urlacher back in the middle will help as he does a great job covering the seam in that Tampa 2 D.
Bears
Yeah they could be a challenge. For some reason Lovie knows how to amp this team up for us! I am scared of Martz…but I don’t know if the guys he has are talented enough to pull this system off. We’ll see I guess.
Yep..
Martz apparently has a pretty complicated system. Hester is slightly less than a Rhodes Scholar..unless some reciever comes out of nowhere…they did add Chester Taylor..
That said the Bears defense should be improved with the addition of Peppers and Uhrlacher set to play again.
You are right though..no matter how bad the Bears seem to be, Lovies team usually play the Packers tough.
Sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.
Supposing Urlacher doesn't go down in the season opener, the Bears D should be decent this year.
The Bears offense on the other hand, could alternate between rolling disaster and doomsday machine.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 13, 2010 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I don’t know, I don’t think so. This offense is almost perfect for Cutler. He’s a tremendous deep ball thrower, and between Hester, Knox (speed guys), and Bennet, Aromashdu (possession guys), it seems like they have the weapons to be successful. Not too mention Forte and Taylor who both fit a Martz style offense almost perfectly. They still have some OL questions though, and it’ll be interesting to see if they can get that group figured out.
by packallday555 on Jul 13, 2010 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Bears O
The Bears offense could have real problems this season. Martz’s offense is a down the field passing game and the OL is a HUGE question mark. Williams the LT has been a bit of a bust as a RT, and thats the easier of the OT spots to play. I wouldn’t have alot of confidence that the OL can give Cutler the 4 seconds the plays usually take to develop. Martz will either have to go to shorter routes or he is going to have to live w/ alot of sacks and maybe INT’s. The RB are a good fit, but neither is really a breakaway threat, which is part of why Forte averaged only 3 yds per carry last year. They will only go as far as a poor OL can take them.
On D they should be a little better, but Tommie Harris and Urlacher have both seen better days… Peppers had better live up to his $$$ or the bears are looking for a new GM and HC… WHich is my prediction!!
Williams actually played really well at LT to finish the season out for the Bears. Their suppose to have a couple other guys shuffling back to their more natural positions as well but obviously that doesn’t automatically ensure it’ll work out for them.
Even if Urlacher isn’t close to what he used to be, he’ll still help improve their defense, and particulary the pass D. I don’t think Harris will ever be what he once was but the arrival of Peppers will likely result in a bit of an improvement from him.
I don’t know really. I thought the Bears were going to be good last season, and that obviously didn’t happen. Though, despite some injuries and OL troubles they still managed to go 7-9.
by packallday555 on Jul 14, 2010 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions
And despite some injuries and OL troubles
The Packers finished 11-5! And who has the better outlook on the OL now? Not sold that Williams will be a good LT, we’ll see…
I think there pass D was pretty bad even when they had Urlacher.
Also predicted the bears would be around .500 and Cutler would throw as many (or more) INT’s than TD’s.
correct on Williams
I was at Soldiers Field (sic) for the Queens/Bears game and Williams largely manhandled Jared Allen. Granted it was just one game, but it is a lot better than the Packers did against him..
Sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.
Martz offenses were always among league leaders for turnovers, but the greatest show on turf could overcome that. These Bears are not Faulk, Bruce, Holt and a 3rd white reciever I can’t remember right now. The Bears simply don’t have that kind of talent. The offensive line will not hold up long enough for the time for many of the routes in his system. I expect to see a increase in turnovers ( as if Cutler didn’t throw evough interceptions last year). Also Lovie wanting to run the ball more I don’t see the fit.
EXACTLY
Been saying the same thing since Martz was hired… Are they going to totally change the offense and let Martz call HIS game? Or is Lovie going to override Martz’ play calls? I see a HUGE clash of philosophies in which BOTH will lose their jobs!!!
Lovie was a defensive coach
I think they brought in Martz FOR his offensive system. Remember Martz hired Lovie as his D Coordinator over in St. Louis so its not like they haven’t worked together. That said, I am not sold the Bears have the pieces to make Martz’ system work…and I hope it doesn’t!!
True
But it has always seemed to me that Lovie is a run first offense guy. Martz certainly is not. Is Lovie going to allow Martz complete freedom?
I don’t think they have the pieces/talent on Offense either.
Part of that...
might have just been due to what they had. When was the last time the bears had a real QB and a real quality WR at the same time??? NEVER! haha Seriously though they really didn’t have much talent at WR during his time and his QBs were quite mediocre too so that might have been partially the reason for the playcalling. Not sure what Lovie’s playcalling was…not even sure if it was him or Turner that called the offensive plays. I know Lovie took over defensive playcalling but I can’t imagine he did the O too since he has no experience with the offense.
playcalling
I understand what your saying and thought it when I posted the comment. I know Lovie was calling the D plays, bue not the Offense. But its not like he ignored what was happening on offense either. I was more speaking to philosophy… IMO, Lovie is more conservative in regards to playcalling on Offense. But it is possible that was due to lack of offensive talent.
Yeah…gotcha there. Not sure eitehr for sure. I guess we’ll see in week one how much Martz is allowed to do and if the talent can pull it off! I don’t think they can though…I sure hope they can’t cause if they can, its always a scary offense to face!
One other thing that could play in is weather. Martz’s system was its most successful in domes (STL and even DET to a degree)…Chicago is windy and gets cold, curious to see how it works there.
I think they'll map out a lot of their O-Line woes
Tice is taking over the unit and he did an excellent job of taking the 97 Vikings line and turning if from a bunch of who are theys to in the next five years sending ten of them to the probowl. Actually, I worry more about him on that team than I do Peppers.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
Their offense isn’t really my worry, it’s their defense. Both games last season they played us good defensively, and this year they should be better on D. Seems like maybe Lovie has our offense figured out to a degree, or at least always has a great gameplan against us.
by packallday555 on Jul 13, 2010 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Pros and cons
I think the Packers pass the Vikings this year. Big reason one: Bulaga and Lang. The Packers (should) have quality backups at LT and RT for when, not if, Clifton and Tauscher miss games due to injury. That should put the brakes on the ex-Mullet. Secondly, the Vikings have lost Chester Taylor who kept several drives alive in both games with third down grabs out of the backfield. Can the Great White Hope from Stanford fill this role? If not, the Vikings’ punter may earn his paycheck this season. Finally, I am begging Dom Capers not to rush only three on third and long. Had to be two or three times in last year’s games when Favre had all the time in the world to step up and gun a 15 yarder on 3rd and 14. Bring five, bring six: I can live with a long 3rd down conversion then. Giving Favre 5 or 6 seconds to throw ain’t a reasonable way to go.
Packers sweep the series. Football is so clear and simple in July…
by Packer Pete on Jul 13, 2010 6:51 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Bringing pressure on experienced quarterbacks is risky
It’s easy to point out now how dropping 8 into coverage didn’t work against Favre last year. Problem is, if you blitz you have to worry that he smells it and hits the hot receiver matched up against a pedestrian safety. I’d like to see more of a mixed defensive strategy.
But the thing is, dropping 7-8 back into coverage just wasn’t working. We kept trying it over and over again, and over and over again Favre found hte open man, just like most good Qb’s will when they have 4+ seconds.
by packallday555 on Jul 14, 2010 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
pass rush
Against the great QB’s you have to get home w/ 4 rushers fairly consistently… If you bring 5 the ball is out as soon as the snap is made. The great QB’s read the blitz pre snap and have the ball out in 2 sec. Blitzing or bringing more than 4 must be pretty exotic for the QB’s not to recognize it… and as soon as you do use it, its recognizable next time!
Saints pounded Favre by mostly bringing 4 pass rushers… And VERY select blitzing.
I think the pack will be a very good team this year and obviously have a great shot at winning the division but I think some of you are seriously underestimating the vikings. Its funny how everyone just assumes the vikings are on the decline because they are becoming “old” and because they think favre is going to “decline”. First of all brett came in last year missing most of training camp and had to wing it for the first few weeks of the season because he had no chemistry with his receivers. After one full year in the offense, he can only feel even more comfortable in it. He hasn’t declined, and people say it every year and it never happens. I won’t believe until I see it.
Many of you say we haven’t done anything in the offseason but become more vunerable and how all these packer players on the o-line, defensive line, and pass rushers will improve so much. You guys do know that vikings players aren’t just sitting on their asses doing nothing to improve right? You dont think a player like Ray edwards who has improved every year in his career can become one of the leagues premier defense ends? What about the return of a player like antoine winfield who was having a FANTASTIC season before an injury sidelined him for 2 months. http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2009&page=4&surn=W&playerid=456
You guys love clay matthews and expect big things out of him. So why can’t we expect the reigning ROOKIE OF THE YEAR to go from a great wide receiver to an elite one? How about the healthy comeback of bernard berrian and his return to his 2008 form when he led the league in yards per catch?
You guys think that two OLD, aging tackles can solidify the o-line, yet you don’t believe AD can learn the simple the technique of holding onto a football over the course of a whole offseason? How about the huge loss of chester taylor? The same player who had a very average season and was ranked by pro football focus as the least elusive rb in the WHOLE league. That Chester Taylor? http://www.profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=2010-05&id=162
Ultimately, what I’m trying to get to is the fact that the vikings very well can become a much improved team this year. Although the vikings reached the nfc championship game last year and came within a fg of making it to the superbowl, I truly believe that they underperformed last year. Again, i’m not saying the vikings are this unstoppable force which will go 16-0 and destroy every team in its path. Obviously, the packers have a decent shot to win the division but to discredit the vikings as this old, declining team just blows my mind.
by All Day, All Night on Jul 14, 2010 1:19 AM CDT reply actions
You dont think a player like Ray edwards who has improved every year in his career can become one of the leagues premier defense ends? What about the return of a player like antoine winfield who was having a FANTASTIC season before an injury sidelined him for 2 months.
Maybe Edwards will improve. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a “premier” DE seeing as how he’s really only average now but I wouldn’t doubt his improvement. Not sure about your view on Winfield though. He was having a great year until his foot injury. Now at first, this injury was only supposed to keep him sidelined for 4 weeks. Then 4 weeks turned into 8 weeks, and when he did finally return and finish the season out his performance was relatively underwhelming. He’s 32, and foot injuries are tough too overcome for Cb’s. I don’t think he’ll ever be the player he was before the injury again.
You guys love clay matthews and expect big things out of him. So why can’t we expect the reigning ROOKIE OF THE YEAR to go from a great wide receiver to an elite one? How about the healthy comeback of bernard berrian and his return to his 2008 form when he led the league in yards per catch?
If Harvin improved, which I think he will, he’d go from an ok WR to a good WR. He won that ROY largely because of his special teams play. He was solid in the slot for you guys (better then I thought he’d be) but by no means was he a “great WR”. As for Berrian, the same thing applies to him as Winfield. He’s 30 years old. I remember first hearing about his hamstring issue before the regular season even started. And I still remember hearing about his hamstring issue after the season ended…That’s not a real good sign.
You guys think that two OLD, aging tackles can solidify the o-line, yet you don’t believe AD can learn the simple the technique of holding onto a football over the course of a whole offseason? How about the huge loss of chester taylor? The same player who had a very average season and was ranked by pro football focus as the least elusive rb in the WHOLE league. That Chester Taylor?
Well seeing as how after both of them came back in week 9, and improved our OL tremendousley, yeah, we think they can solidify our OL. (41 sacks weeks 1-8, 9 sacks weeks 9-17. Much better wouldn’t you say?) In regards to AP, that’s exaclty how I feel about his fumbling issue. It should be simple to fix. Only the thing is, he’s struggled now with it for 3 years. I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s not an issue of how he’s holding the football but rather how wildly, and out of control he runs (and I don’t mean that in a bad way.)
Well, it’s obvious to anyone who ever watched the Vikings that Taylor isn’t even close to being the “least” elusive Rb in the league. In fact, he is probably a top 5 3rd down Rb in this league, and losing him will almost undoubtedly hurt your offense.
Ultimately, what I’m trying to get to is the fact that thevikingspackers very well can become a much improved team this year.
This is exactly the point fans here are trying to make as well. We’re a really young team, with some young guys who showed us some flashes of great play last season. We also usually improve from building within, and developing players, and have generally done that very well.
Yes, the Vikings can improve because of these reasons too but for the most part your starting guys are set in stone, and have been longstays at their respective positions. A lot of them are probably as good as they ever will be. It’s not a knock on your team at all, it’s just reality.
by packallday555 on Jul 14, 2010 2:41 AM CDT up reply actions
You say Edwards is average? ha ha. Edwards was a beast throughout the season last year. I’m not just forming my opinion over a vague observation either. LOOK AT THE LINK→ http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.php?tab=by_position&season=2009&pos=DE3&stype=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1
He was ranked as the 11th best DE in the league LAST YEAR! It’s moronic to base an opinion on a DE just by looking at how many sacks they have.
As far as Winfield, I can see where your opinion is coming from. I just think that after 6 months rehabbing in the offseason, he can come back a lot healthier.
Your opinion on harvin is hilarious. You really think he was just OK last year? Yes he was outstanding in the return game but the guy had almost 800 yards receiving, another 135 rushing, and 6 touchdowns as the third wide out!!! You want to know why i think he is so special? Look at this article http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/05/02/offseason/2.html
You would think a WR like bouldin or andre johnson would have the most broken tackles in the league. No it was the third string receiver for the vikings!! and not only that, he led the league by a HUGE margin. and he also missed two games last year. imagine if he started and played all 16 games. Now you see why i think he has so much potential.
I know its been a problem for a couple years, but you know it’s fixable. I think the main reason he’ll be able to fix it is the fact that he is soon going to be in a contract year and he knows that he won’t get anywhere near the same amount of money if he keeps fumbling than if he gets rid of the problem.
as far as chester taylor, you basically ignored the article i linked. They SAY chester taylor was the least elusive back in the league. I’m not making this up! read it.
Well we have AD, Toby, Sidney, Percy, Ray, Chris cook, tyrell johnson, phil loadhoalt, sullivan, allen, greenway. I’d say we also have some very young core pieces who can get much better too. Yes, you have a young team but don’t get me started on your o-line and secondary. The packers are FAR from perfect themselves.
by All Day, All Night on Jul 14, 2010 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Edwards
Keep in mind, Edwards has the best DE/DT/DT combo in the entire league lining up next to him. He is CLEARLY benefiting from having all pro teammates. I see someone overpaying him greatly only to find out he’s just average. It happens all the time on good teams.
I somewhat agree
Yes, he does benefit from playing next to allen and the williams wall but there is no denying hes improved every year of his career. Of course he gets more single blocks than the average DE because of his teammates but he is now showing the ability to take advantage of these opportunities. This can only help the vikings line become even more
fearsome.
by All Day, All Night on Jul 14, 2010 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Harvin
The issue is you are calling him GREAT…as a rookie. Andre Johnson is great. Randy Moss is great. Cris Carter was great. Harvin was good…I might even give him very good but dude was not great. Giving Peter King as a source really isn’t going to add much credibility either. Look he was a #3 WR on the team, though really only by title. We all know he was the 1/2 look for Favre on most plays. He’s young and elusive but I am not sold on if he’ll become a GREAT wide receiver. He might become a great multipurpose player though. You are right to be excited about him, but lets temper where he is at so far. He’s a great return guy and a pretty good WR. .
I'm not citing peter king as my source.
Hes the same guy who predicted the bears to go to the superbowl last year. lol. The portion i’m referring to is the part where lists the players who broke the most tackles. Those stats were compiled by Football Outsiders. I could care less what peter king thinks. And you have to remember that rookie receivers rarely ever have insane rookie seasons where they have 1300 yards and 10 tds. It just doesn’t happen. I know the main reason most of you don’t think he’ll ever be “great” is because he doesn’t have the prototypical size for a wr. I disagree with that assessment but that’s just my opinion. Plus , thats what we have Sidney Rice for.
by All Day, All Night on Jul 14, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Formulas in the NFL
sabremetrics doesn’t really work in the NFL like it might in the MLB. Sites like that are trying to create ways to determine something that only the eye can show you. Not to mention, they are referring to Chester the RB and most often he was used as Chester the receiver and THAT is what made him dangerous…being in the open field. Its amazing how quickly you guys turned on Chester, a guy who just last year half of the guys in DN were touting as “better than half the RBs in the league”.
True it amazes me the one way thinking of most Viking fans. 6 months ago they were talking about a top 15 RB on their bench. I’ve been laid up for a month so I’ve spent a lot of time reading every teams blog sites(can’t get out of bed have to do something). Not really talking about (all Day All NIght, he makes some good arguments) but Viking fans in my opinion have the least realistic fans bar none. Half these guys think Farve will be better than last year.
Yes, I completely understand.
It’s much easier in baseball. I’m not saying these stats are the end of all, be all stats of the nfl. I like to use them in combination with the standard statistics like yards, sacks, int, etc. and basic observations. I like to compare my own beliefs on certain players and see what their analysis shows. I just can’t stand when people form these pre-conceived notions on certain players. Stuff like "JaROD aLLEN suCKZ man. He HAD almost ALL his SAKS Against OuR sUCKY LINEMEN. HES teRIBLE VersUS Good tEAMs!!!!!!! QuEENS R OVARATED. GOOOOOOOO PAK!!!!!!!
I thought Taylor was a decent player and I think he did really well in his tenure in Minny. I also think that Peterson has really improved his pass blocking and is becoming more of a receiving threat out of the backfield. He is definitely a loss I’ll admit, but the crippling loss some of you make out to be.
by All Day, All Night on Jul 14, 2010 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Sabremetrics don't really work all that well in MLB either
The stat-heads will argue until their blue in the face, but so much of baseball just doesn’t translate (or, if it does, they’ll try to make up a new stat to cover it).
For example: stat-heads argue that BABIP (batting average of balls in play) is the be-all and end-all. The formula is (Hits minus Homeruns), divided by (At bat minus strikeouts minus Homeruns plus sacrifice flies). Basically, this is supposed to tell you how lucky, or unlucky, a player is. It’s garbage. For example: A hitter with 500 ABs, 160 hits, 40 homeruns, 100 strikeouts and 0 sacrifice flies would have a BABIP of .333. Same stats only no h9ome runs, and the BABIP is .400. In other words, the power hitter is “unluckier” than the slap hitter.
Stat-heads will tell you that stolen bases and RBIs are unimportant statistics, as is a pitcher’s ERA. I say bunk, and I invite Ted the Lawyer, or that creepy bald guy from Iowa, to defend their silly positions.
which stat heads?
You might have a point that not everything is quantified and therefore that not all of baseball (or football) is accessible through statistics. Fine. But you haven’t supported your case at all. Which stat-head says BABIP “is the be-all & end-all”? That doesn’t seem to be how it’s used.
You’ve made no argument about stolen bases, RBIs, or ERA beyond “bunk.” There are plenty of stat-heads who will tell you that ERA is a useful if not perfect measure. SB measures SB. It’s hard to argue with it as a measure. I think your quibble is with how to interpret the stat.
by uglyfatpimplynerd on Jul 14, 2010 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I say Edwards is average because he played next to the best DT combo in the league, and a top 3 DE in the league. IMO, pretty much any guy is going to succeed in that situation. He was facing single teams nearly every single play.
I agree that he has tremendous potential. I just am saying he was a solid WR last season, not a “great” one like you suggested. A great WR is Johnson, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Marshall, etc. So to be clear I think he was ok/solid as a WR. I think he was great as a returner.
Again, the fumblings been a problem for 3 years. I personally believe the only way for him to fix it is to stop running so wildly, which I doubt he’ll do, and really he shouldn’t because it’s what makes him so effective. He can improve upon the problem by changing his grip to a degree but when he’s fighting with all his might for extra yards, fumbles are just going to be happen from time to time.
I didn’t read the article because all of those football ranking sites are somewhat subjective. Are you really going to argue that Taylor wasn’t and hasn’t been one of the best 3rd down Rb’s in the league? It would be a silly one, considering last year some Viking fans over on DN were making the argument that he was the best one in the league.
But you don’t know about guys like Toby or Cook. Allen has some potential but he was absolutely abused last season when playing the nickel when Winfield was out. Even a guy like Johnson is one I’m not sure about. He’s been underwhelming at S for you guys, so much so that Sanford starting to take some time from him last season.
Honestly, our OL is looking pretty good for the future. Buluga is a R, Lang is a 2nd year player, and our group of interior guys all range from 25-29. Yes, Clifton and Tauscher are old but it’s not like we need them to play for 3 more years while we find their replacements because that’s already been done. Not gonna argue against the secondary though.
by packallday555 on Jul 14, 2010 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I think all the rookies on both teams have a decent chance to have a positive impact this year. Ultimately, I believe both teams could conceivably finish from anywhere between 10-6 to 13-3. I just think the vikings have a better chance of winning the division because of our defense. Both teams have great QBs, great receivers(although driver is REALLY old), our RB is a lot better, and our o-lines are pretty similar(I’ll admit our oline is somewhat overrated).
In terms of defense, your d-line is pretty underrated, your lbs other than matthews are pretty average, and your secondary has some huge question marks. Charles woodson was outstanding but is bound to regress and hes getting up there in age. al harris is also pretty damn old and hes coming off a torn acl. tramon williams was ok but i remember your other corners being awful, especially bush. I also heard you guys might be starting a rookie safety this year? Theres always lots of risk there.
Our lbs are pretty solid. leber is decent and greenway is becoming a pro bowl caliber lb. the question mark is EJ because of his gruesome injury but jasper brinkley filled in pretty nicely as a rookie. The secondary really hinges on winfield coming back healthy which i think he can. benny sapp was solid for us, lito could succeed in nickel coverage and hopefully chris cook could be a good dime corner. Although our safetys are very average, they are not as bad as ppl make them out to be. In our cover 2 system, they just mostly sit back in two deep coverage and don’t have many opportunities to make plays.
I think what truly separates our teams is the vikings d-line. we have the best d-line in the league. Against the elite teams in the playoffs, our line single handedly destroyed the cowboys and helped us shut down the saints offense at THEIR OWN PLACE. On the other hand, your defense got roasted against the great passing teams last year. the packers hardly made any changes and other than matthews, i don’t see any other decent pass rushers. While some of you might say that capers blitzing more should improve your pass rush, i don’t necessarily think that is the answer. There were plenty of times in the second vikes-pack game where you guys blitzed a lot of ppl and favre audibled and threw quick passes which resulted in easy first downs.
The vikings can rush four and drop seven and expect a pass rush almost every play. I don’t think the same can be said about the packers.
by All Day, All Night on Jul 14, 2010 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Our secondary should be fine. Woodson is getting older but he did have his best season ever last season. Maybe he’ll start declining but there’s been nothing hinting at that. The biggest thing is we’ll get guys back. Harris won’t be what he used too but I’d think he’d be able to at least play the nickel or dime spot for us.
I guess we’re just going to have to see with our pass rush. Raji being a starter, and 100% healthy could help our pass rush quite a bit. It will probably depend on how Jones improves (or doesn’t).
by packallday555 on Jul 15, 2010 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Can the Packers beat the Vikings?
Quick answer: of course
While the Vikings beat the Pack in ‘09, they did so before significant improvements. First, the offensive line sucked. This year the problem appears to be remedied. Second, the defense hadn’t gelled. Favre won’t be any better this year then last, while Aaron is on the up point of his career. Third, the Tampa Bay game. The Packers were immature last year. It took that game to wake them up.
The 3/4 defense has it’t biggest weakness against a spread offense, so Favre and his buddies could have another field day. But, assuming Capers is no fool, he can game plan better with troops that now know the defense. The defensive line must push to pocket. Both Barnett and Hawk must improve against the spread.
The Vikings have weakness in both the secondary and offensive line which little was done in the off season to correct.
just like your defense hadnt gelled
favre and his recievers hadn’t gelled either. I do admit that it seems like the 2nd game against the Packers i believe it was week 8 when it seemed like they first started gelling.
by vikesfan4lyf on Jul 14, 2010 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions
inexperience
The big difference is playing the 34 D takes time and experience to play well. Favre has what… 16 years of experience in that exact offense!!! The Packers had problems stopping Pitts and AZ cuz they knew Capers D inside and out… And they exposed our inexperience playing the 34. It takes excellent communication and coordinatiion, something Capers has preached repeatedly. Against Pitts they used bunched formations w/ recievers to create confusion due to a lack of communication on who each DB was supposed to take depending on the different routes run. That communication and coordination will have been worked on and fixed by Capers.
Favre didn’t have to learn that offense… Its the same one he ran for the vast majority of his GB tenure, probably the exact same language and audibles… Everything he walked into was the same. It doesn’t take a QB and WR more than a few weeks to get the timing down, assuming both know the offense, which of course they did!!!
Lastly, the queens are only getting older and the Packer younger. I thought last year, and still do that your window was last year!!! This year, based on his past history, its more likely that Favre reverts to his former self.
Actually everyone is getting older.
And honestly if you remove a couple of players our age drops dramatically.
Now I think the games this year will be much better and you may win we may win. They will be tight and great to watch. Having your two starting tackles will be huge the sacks we gave Rodgers were definitely game breakers. However, I’m not exactly sure both of them will still be playing all through next year. Both of them have history of injury and both of them are definitely on the waning side.
Our offensive line should get better, we had two new guys start on the line and a year of experience should help them out alot. Offensive line is a very tricky position and trying to figure out what you need to do each play is hard, and can cause hesitancy issues. As well Herrera had a shoulder injury lst off season that kept him out of the gym. He stated that he never got back up to his normal strength all season last year. Hutch had a back injury and well McKinnie… Well I have no excuse for him. Baluga and Lang both are second string linemen for you guys, I can’t see them making a big impact unless one of the prime guys goes down. Even then I don’t see Baluga going crazt on people.
Also we did do move, we got a blocking back in Moats, we got the best kicker in the league for touch backs in Rhys-Loyd, we got Lito to help our corner (he was in the probowl when he played for Frazier last time). We didn’t need much help, we had great chemistry. We do have some older players but we also have some younger players. I think we’ll be fine next year. And as to who wins? I say we split it each of us winning in the other teams house.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
Good points.
I’d point out that if Clifton and Tauscher go down this season, we’re not screwed like we were last. Lang proved to be a solid RT last season, and Buluga was deemed the most NFL ready LT heading into the draft. He may not have the most potential of all of the guys but he looks to be a solid guy, with great, great footwork. So while he may not light the world on fire, I’m sure he’ll be able to do a better job then say a Darryn Colledge.
It’ll be interesting to see how your OL turns out. I know Hutch and McKinnie dealt with injuries last season but was there more too it then just that? Too be honest, I don’t really know. I don’t see Herrea improving though. He’s been mediocore-below average nearly his whole career.
Getting Lloyd was a nice move for you guys as well as Moats and Lito. Definitely should help your team improve.
by packallday555 on Jul 14, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Hererra is like one of those silent types...the kind where he does his job but doesnt do it too flashy you know
He’s really the least talked about on our line.
by vikesfan4lyf on Jul 14, 2010 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions
He's the second-best, too. Hutchinson is amazing, and Herrera's right behind him.
The Vikings have a huge steal in Herrera…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 15, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
That's not saying much when your comparing against two rookies and the laziest man in the NFL
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
If you guys didn't have Bryant McKinnie...
You’d have Artis Hicks.
Okay, Hicks was decent last year. But before this season? Hicks was persona non grata.
Sullivan, on the other hand, has the difficulty of having to replace longtime Viking Matt Birk. That’s a difficult spot to fill, but it’s no excuse for being a revolving door on rushing plays…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 17, 2010 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions
He’s nothing more then a mauler. Having he and Sullivan next to one another was a liability for you guys, and a large part of why AP had his lowest average in ypc.
by packallday555 on Jul 15, 2010 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree and I have to hope that a year in the scheme will get load and Sully up to speed this year
I think both of them were large reasons why the right side of our line was allowing AD to get stopped behind the line of scrimmage last year. I think we had the most rb tackles behind the line and that is all the lines fault. Last year Load looked good and I think he’ll become a solid RT maybe even probowl material, Sullivan just seems a bit small to me, but then it’s hard to come in here after Birk and look good.
You are right even if you do loose Clif or Tausch this year you’re looking much better than you did last year. I think in the end it will be up to Raji and Clay to see if they can pressure Favre enough to keep him honest.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
I think Loadholt is going to be great too. He played really well for you guys. Actually, I think you could argue he was your best OL last season. I don’t think Sullivan is the answer. He’s undersized, and really struggles against the bigger DT/NT’s. And with all the 3-4 teams now, plus some of the massive 4-3 DT’s in the league, I don’t know that Sullivan will ever really be able to succeed.
It will be on them two but Brad Jones too. Clay will draw double teams next season, and when he does it’ll be up to Jones to get to the Qb.
by packallday555 on Jul 16, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, comparing our defense gelling and Favre gelling with his WR’s isn’t a great comparison. The 3-4 is something that takes a couple of years to transition too. Chemistry with a WR isn’t, especially with a Qb like Favre at the helm.
by packallday555 on Jul 14, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Take Clifton, Taucsher and Harris off the Pack and we go down in age just like viqueeens… And we have replacements already on-board. Bulaga and Lang will be staters in a year or two. Clifton and Tausch have had some injury problems, but they too have had a full offseason to train, instead of rehab!!!
What replacements do you have for Favre, Pat Williams, Hutch, McKinnie??? I haven’t heard of ANY… Hutch and McKinnie are in about the same situation as Cliff and Tausch. Nobody to take over for Williams, unless you consider that bust Kennedy a successor… LOL
And at the most important position? Sage Jacksonfels?!!! LOL
actually kennedy has played pretty well for the vikings since he's been here. And we haven't been in that situation until this year to worry about whose going to replace hutch and mckinnie. this was there first down year.
by vikesfan4lyf on Jul 15, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
And 08 was Clifton and Tauschers first down year...
I think your dellusional if you think Jimmy Kennedy is going to be able to do for the vikes what Pat Williams has!!! He’s entering his 9th year in the NFL… By now he is who he is!!! And that is the same as it was 3 yrs ago… A Bust!
Kennedy’s been serviceable but he isn’t a long term replacement.
I know you haven’t needed their replacements. I think the point Stroh is trying to make is if you do end up needing to replace one of them for whatever reason, you may be in trouble. Just like we were in trouble when we needed to replace Clifton and Tauscher, and had no replacements for them.
by packallday555 on Jul 15, 2010 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Good points, I might expect a decline from a couple players(Clifton, Harris, Driver) Taucsher has a chance to improve hear he’s in great shape from my neighbor(as good of a source as you can get) and a another year removed from his knee injury. I would make the case that just about every one else has a great chance to improve(some significantly) because of youth and 2nd year in new defense. Might be hard for Woodson to improve on last season but I don’t see much dropoff from him as far as game changing plays are concerned.
worried
I am a little worried that Woodson won’t be able to make alot of game changing plays. Harris was able to take the #1 WR for the opponent and contain him, that left Woodson in the slot to be able to take advantage of his instincts and knowledge of the game. If Woodson has to cover the #1 WR that takes him out of the playmaking role he excelled in last year and puts him in MUCH more of a cover situation. We need to have 2 really good CB outside to allow Woodson to do what he does best!!!
Once Harris went down last season, didn’t they still mix things up for Woodson on defense a bit? Sure he was going to cover the #1 WR or TE threat when the game was on the line, but honestly Williams did a decent job covering the #1 when Woodson was allowed to roam free a bit. Just look at the Dallas game for an example!
Dallas
Against Dallas Woodson was no Whitten the majority of the time. And he made plays, but that also allowed him to be closer to the LOS. Williams is fine opposite Woodson but for Wood to really be allowed to be a playmaker he needs to be the slot CB. If I’m an offensive coordinator and Woodson is in coverage on an outside WR, that WR is doing nothing but running deep to take Woodson completely out of the play! When he has to concentrate on an outside WR, its much easier to take him out of the game to limit his playmaking ability!
I don't agree with that
Tramon Williams is decent, but he’s not a shutdown corner who is going to take out the other team’s no. 1 receiver.
He’s not a shut down guy but not many guys are aside from Asomugha and Revis. Williams was just fine last season when filling in. He’s also probably our most athletic/explosive Cb, and still has some room to grow.
by packallday555 on Jul 15, 2010 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Harris did not always take the #1 WR
Harris commanded the right side of the field, Woodson the left side. It was strictly like that. If the Offense had 2 WR’s on one side, that would be the only exception in having both Harris and Woodson on one side, unless Woodson was asked to cover the TE.
It’s the same thing with our OLB’s. There is no strong side and weakside LB. It is a LOLB in Jones and ROLB in Mathews, thus being why once in a while Mathews will line up against a TE.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
True
But most #1 WR line up on the weak side of the formation! Harris wasn’t always on the #1, but it still turned out that way the majority of the time. #1 WR USUALLY line up to the weak side, which is the offensive Left and defensive right. Most teams, and most formations keep it like that…
I never really noticed that
Randy Moss often times plays on the left side, as Chad Ocho Cinco does, and Miles Austin.
If that’s the case, I’d much rather have it the other way around. I’d rather have Greg Jennings lining up on the same side as the TE. This way, the Strong Safety (who is more vulnerable in coverage than the Free Safety, usually) is forced to defend the TE and best WR. I think a lot of teams realize that though, which is why WR’s rotate their position often.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
that's because it's b.s
that means jennings is clearly the #2 receiver on the packers and on the colts when wayne was always on the left and harrison almost exclusively played to peytons right. that would mean that wayne has been the number 1 receiver for years. who knew?
the thing is that 95%, guessing, of the qb’s that have played in this league have been right handed, so it is much easier for a right handed qb to throw to his right. it wouldn’t make much sense for the teams #1 receiver to play mostly on the qb’s left because the qb has rotate his shoulders 180 degrees and not to mention the hips so it’s more difficult for a right handed qb to throw to his left, but it is much easier for the qb to hand off to his left because he is using his dominant hand.
Understand your logic, But..
Then why is Jennings on the offensive left side more often than not? And Wayne for that matter, who is the #1 on Indy, mostly lines up on the left? You think it might be because the right side has more recievers (WR and TE) and as such being on the left affords the #1 WR more room to work? And the QB doesn’t have to turn that much, unless he’s throwing directly to the sideline. Otherwise, its at most 90 degrees.
Didn’t say it was hard and fast, as, IMO Randy Moss lines up largely on the right. But it does seem that most #1’s line up left!
Packer Defense
I’m excited about what the Packers can do on defense this year. We watched the defense progress nicely last year. Now the players know the scheme, and just as importantly Capers has a better understanding of each player.
Much has been said about the Packer’s problems with “elite” QB’s. What everybody must first understand is there is no effective defense against a hot QB with multiple weapons. Look at the Jet’s vaunted defense against Peyton in the playoffs, and the Colts are not particularly target rich. The Packers had little chance against a red hot Warner. But Arizona couldn’t stop Rodgers either.
Thompson obviously tried to address the issues in the draft. I’ve read that many were concerned about cornerback. But that was not an issue. The entire secondary was decimated and down to scrubs like Bush and Martin. Better play is needed in the middle, hence, he drafted Burnett for his coverage skills. Both Hawk and Barnett have to “flow” to the action much more in a spread offense. But first and foremost, pressure on the QB. Enter Neal. The Packers with Raji, Jenkins, Pickett, and maybe Jolly, have the tools. Jenkins has to finish plays. No question Raji can push the pocket now that he knows what he has to do.
The Vikes swept the Packers last year
and Minnesota has every starter returning. Look, I’m not saying Green Bay is a bad team, but I find it stunning that they say Green Bay has a 57% chance of beating the Vikings in Minnesota. And you can argue that the Vikings were even more dominant in Green Bay, with the exception of the third quarter. I still give green Bay the edge at thome, however. 64% though? Eh, I just don’t see it.
Can the Packers sweep? Sure. But the percentages that What If Sports gives just seem ridiculous.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
Factors
1. Packers are VERY young vs Vikings are more veteran (growth as a team vs already there)
2. Favre…getting older can he keep playing at the same high level?
3. Packers D in second year in new 3-4 system
4. Loss of Chester (big hit to 3rd downs in my book)
5. Impact of MN top 2 CBs and how they recover from big injuries
6. Packers got better as the season went on, Viking games were early in season
not saying these ARE reasons…just saying maybe these are some of the things that went into it.
Agree with all your points and I’d expect our offense to be better(maybe significantly better) Offensive line should be solid, as good as Finley was last year, watch out he grew by leaps and bounds the last 8 games last year. Nelson and Jones breakout years may not show in stats only one ball to spread around but they’ll make the big play when needed. Hopefully Starks can catch the ball like they say he can.
I expect our defense to be better for reasons you mention plus unless disaster strikes 2 seasons in a row we won’t be playing 6th and 7th best corners if not for injuries they would not have been on roster and the push up the middle The BJ factor both our outside linebackers were rookies hard to believe the level they played at. Matthews and Jones have both added 10-15 pounds of muscle.
Minnesota’s biggest flaw Farve"s age will finally catch up and the dropoff may not be pretty(for Packer fans it will). The Williams wall seemed to age last year should continue. And as pointed out by Trevor That seconday is not that good.
I do think as good as your recievers were they had a chance to be better but I don’t see it with Rice taking the offseason off.
Hmmm, I don't know
1. I would think that would favor the Vikings, as long as they’re healthy, which they are.
2. I’ve quit asking that question. He can.
3. That defense had very mixed results. Good offenses, with the exception of Dallas, shredded it, and now you lose a key component in Johnny Jolly.
4. For all the hoopla around Taylor, he was a backup running back. He’s replaceable.
5. Solid point. Vikes drafted Chris Cook and signed Lito Shepherd, but Cedric Griffin’s injury, and how he recovers from it, will be a big deal going forward.
6. When the game is played shouldn’t matter. If you’re a better team, you’re better in week 1 and week 16. And the week 8 game in Green Bay was too early in the season?
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
I know...
1. The vikes being older are only going to go down in level of play, Packers being younger will continue to get better!
2. We’ll see about #4. His age and body can start to affect him at ANY time.
3. Pitts and AZ were the 2 teams to take advantage of our D far more than anyone else. Funny isn’t it, that the 2 teams w/ the most intimate knowledge of Capers D had the most success vs it? I think NOT!!!
4. You have no one to replace his 3rd down receptions that kept drives alive!
5. Shepherd hasn’t done much in the last 3 yrs, 2, 1 and 1 INT’s in the past 3 yrs! Cook is a rookie and will be the toast of the NFL for a couple of years before he gets better! Happens to all rookie CB’s!
6. You don’t think the conversion to a 34 had an affect and played better down the stretch or that the OL game up 37 sacks in 1st 8 game vs 13 in final 8 has anything to do with our 7-1 record to close out the season? Your a FOOL and a TOOL if you don’t!!!
16. Clearly the Packers got a wakeup call after the TB game and made their stretch run to the playoffs!!!
And I know that you know that I know
1. Fair point, but the oldest guys I have the most concern about are Pat Williams and Favre, and they’re playing lights out.
2. I used to fervently believe that. I’ve come to quit doubting the guy. He’ll be ready, and with a good supporting cast, he’ll play well again. Will he play at 2009 levels? Hard to repeat, but if he did it wouldn’t surprise me.
3. Uh, did you remember the shredding Minnesota’s offense put on you? And Tampa, a horrid team offensively, put some kind of voodoo hex on you as well. Statistically your defense did well, but when faced with athletic playmakers, you struggled, and managed to self-eliminate Aaron Kampmann, putting your best pass rusher in a scheme that neutralized him.
4. If this had been 2008, I’d agree. His impact dropped slightly in 2009, and Adrian Peterson set career highs in receptions and yards. I am more than okay with the RB situation as we head to Mankato.
5. Yeah, CB is the achilles heel right now. If there is a worry, that’s where it is. Somebody will have to step up.
6. Sure, it had an affect, but the quality of your opponents were suspect. You played Dallas (convincing win) at Pittsburgh (loss), an Arizona team mailing it in for the playoffs, and a bunch of meh. When it came time to put up or shut up, your defense got mauled worse than a bacon wrapped baby seal swimming through an Orca pod. Fool and tool? Wow, you can rhyme, you’re so cool.
16. What happened to 7-15? Oh well. Wake up call? Maybe. They also had a weak schedule.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
You know that I know that...
1. Favre played lights out, but he is going to be 41… His body can quit on him anytime. Pat Williams certainly dropped in level of play! And that is going to continue. McKinnie has fallen off too.
2. You can count on #4, but as noted he is 41 and he could easily fall off the cliff.
3. I wouldn’t call 271 and 244 shredding. He certainly played well… Threw 3 and 4 TD’s to make a point, IMO.
4. So when are you taking AD out? Never? Don’t think Gerhart is going to do a thing in the NFL!
5. CB and Safety!!!
6. Pitts and AZ had intimate of Capers coaching and schemes. Pitts is still using his defense and Whisenhunt was OC in Pitts and knew how to beat his D too. Think that was coincedence? I think NOT!!!
16. Seems to me viqueens had same schedule save 2 games. So if we did so did YOU!!!
I would think that would favor the Vikings, as long as they’re healthy, which they are.
I don’t know, I think just because of all the young guys we have, and especially those that have already contributed early on we may have more room for growth.
at defense had very mixed results. Good offenses, with the exception of Dallas, shredded it, and now you lose a key component in Johnny Jolly.
Yeah, our defense is going to be what determines how well our season goes. With the OL solid, our offense is going to be there, and will probably be a top 5 one in the league. But if we can’t ever stop good offensive teams it won’t matter how many points we put up. (Arizona playoff game was a perfect example of that.)
For all the hoopla around Taylor, he was a backup running back. He’s replaceable.
He’s definitely replaceable, the question is, did you find that replacement? Too me, you didn’t. I’m not buying Gerhart being a 3rd down Rb. He only caught like 10-20 passes in college and their will be a learning period in regards to blocking/picking up blitzes. Maybe AP will take over this role (which would be smart cause he should be on the field at all times) but his pass blocking is still iffy. Moats could be the guy, and probably will in my opinion, as he’s pretty much been a 3rd down/fill type guy his whole career in the league. Regardless, of who it is though, chances are they won’t do it as well as Taylor did.
When the game is played shouldn’t matter. If you’re a better team, you’re better in week 1 and week 16. And the week 8 game in Green Bay was too early in the season?
Yeah, for us it did matter though. Having Clifton at what appeared to be 60-70% at the most, and no Tauscher killed us. And what hurt even more then that, was that we didn’t have reliable back-up’s for either. After we got the two mainstays back at the OT’s we were a much, much better offensive team, and really close to somewhat of an unstoppable offense.
I think it’ll be close. I still think you guys have the edge but if Clifton can do a better job against Allen then our back-up’s did last year I like our chances a lot more.
P.S.- I was reading the Strib today, and I think I saw a reference to you, and one of your writings regarding the USC vs. Gophers. I thought that was pretty cool, and I wanted to say congrats! Though I personally don’t think the Gophers stand much of a chance :).
by packallday555 on Jul 18, 2010 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks for the tip on the Strib
I couldn’t believe it. And thanks for the kind words.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
Yeah, no problem. I’ve always enjoyed your writings over on DN quite a bit. Continue the good work!
by packallday555 on Jul 19, 2010 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Haha yeah, I thought the percentages were kinda silly too. I think the biggest difference is we should have an at least formidable LT in either Clifton or Buluga this season, as opposed to Colledge and Lang. It certainly makes things difficult when the OL gives up 14 sacks in two games, let alone 7.5 sacks to one player. If our OL can play to the level they did towards the end of the season last year I think our chances against you guys increase. It’ll allow Rodgers more time, which is great for us because your biggest weakness as a team is your secondary. It’d help if McCarthy actually has us pumped up and ready for the games this season too..
by packallday555 on Jul 17, 2010 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
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