Giants WR Steve Smith Is "At Least" As Valuable as Greg Jennings
by Brandon on Jul 9, 2010 8:00 AM CDT
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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PrintWhen Giants WR Steve Smith was interviewed about his contract situation, he understands why he can't get a market value contract extension because of the 30% rule, but believes he's worth "at least" as much as Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings. I'm no Giants expert but I thought Smith is a different type of receiver (with Jennings working more downfield, and Smith on shorter routes).
| 2009 | Rec. | Yards | Avg. | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 107 | 1220 | 11.4 | 7 |
| Greg Jennings | 68 | 1113 | 16.4 | 4 |
| 2008 | Rec. | Yards | Avg. | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 57 | 574 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 80 | 1292 | 16.2 | 9 |
It looks like Smith was better than Jennings in 2009, and that's what Football Outsiders says too, but Jennings is more of a home run threat. In 2007 and 2008 (Smith was a rookie in 2007) Jennings was the better receiver nearly anyway you looked at it. And Jennings has been starting in the NFL since Day 1 of his rookie season (2006) while Smith only began to start midway through his 2nd season.
I understand why Smith brings Jennings up as a comparable. Jennings signed his extension last June before beginning his 4th season, and Smith would like to sign an extension before he begins his 4th season. But would the Giants even want to extend the contract of a player who's only had one good year so far? I really liked Smith coming out of USC and thought he would make a solid pro, but he doesn't seem to be as good as Jennings yet.
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Smith is quality
I think its a fair comparison. Jennings is a very good, not great WR. They are a little different in styles but in production, they are comparable. About the same yards, one just is more of a short yardage guy and the other is more of a deep guy. Their playing styles aren’t similar but their production and value to the team probably are. Jennings wasn’t even the #1 WR on the team when he got his deal and its not a ground breaking contract. I think its a good comparison for him and a good place to take aim.
He’s certainly got a case to make from last year’s numbers. But, if you had a draft and I had the choice between them, I’d take Jennings 100 times out of a 100.
Plus, Jennings would never make a comment like this to the media, so I like him that way too.
When I first saw this news item, I thought it was Steve Smith of the Panthers talking, and then I would’ve said yes, no question about it. Steve Smith of the Giants isn’t in the same category, though, in my opinion.
Steve Smith of the Panthers is better than Jennings…Jennings should strive to make HIS kind of money and get his kind of production!
Jennings shouldn't break his arm TWICE, though.
And I’m very happy that Jennings has been able to avoid injuries.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 9, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Jennings has also never punched a teammate so hard that he went on the DL. So, there’s that too.
I agree, though, that, in terms of production, Carolina Steve Smith is a monster.
by Curly Lambeau on Jul 9, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually, when I was under the impression that this item was about Carolina Steve Smith and the headline (I think I saw it on SI) was “Steve Smith thinks he deserves Greg Jennings money,” my quick reaction was “Absolutely, no question about it. He deserves more than that.”
So, Steve Smith Carolina? Yes.
Steve Smith New York? myeh… maybe.
by Curly Lambeau on Jul 9, 2010 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Smith really only has one solid season
Yeah, his 2009 numbers are very impressive. But so far that’s the only season he’s started more than 4 games.
In order to be classed at a high level, he needs to prove that he can maintain that level of production (including staying healthy through a 16-game season).
I agree…though I think he has as much right to try to get a new deal as someone like Grant did…in fact even moreso since Grant had only given us 1/2 a year of production. Smith was a second rounder so he’s probably playing at a pretty meager amount right now. Personally I think he should wait another year though. If he puts up another year like last he can really push for a big contract!!
Smith just trying to cash in before Nicks overtakes him
I drafted Smith very late last year, believing Eli would target his most familiar/trusted WR. I was right. However, after a few months of experience, Nicks showed he could be a bigger threat. Manningham also developed quite well. Most of Smiths TDs last year came early in the season. I predict his numbers to level off.
Reception numbers don’t impress me when you average 10 yards. Jenning’s 16 per game is impressive and he is on the cusp of greatness.
my thoughts
That was my thought too… I think Nicks is going to be the man for the NYG this year. Smith is trying to leverage his one good year into a major contract extension before he gets displaced by Nicks. He might even get passed by Manningham… I don’t see his 11 yd per rec average as being anywhere near the value of a Jennings type contract!!! Possession recievers are a dime a dozen. Sometimes you find one thats irreplacable, but I don’t see Smith as being that… Its not like he’s a Welker!!!
If I had a fantasy draft, I would take Nicks over Smith right now!
100 catch possession receivers are NOT a dime a dozen. I expect more from you than that Stroh. There were six guys who broke 100 catches last year (Smith was second in the league). The names that joined him in the 100 plus club this year were Welker, A Johnson, Marshall, Clark, and Wayne. Quite the company he keeps up there. He averaged more yards per catch than Welker, Marshall, and Clark.
Again not a Smith guy persay, but lets not try to discount him too much. I don’t know if Eli has the skills to turn Nicks into an elite guy. He’s just not a great QB (IMO) so I just can’t see him making Nicks into a consistent enough of a threat. I do like what Nicks brings to the table though and I expect a nice season from him next year.
Nah...
It used to be that 100 catches was a huge deal, but (without doing the research) it seems to me that, now, all you need is to be good and be in an offense that revolves around you. After Plax was gone, who else was Eli going to throw to? …especially in the first part of the season.
So, 100 catches is not nothing, but it’s not something you need to shell out $13 million a year for. I don’t blame Smith for trying to get this money, and it’s not like his claim is absurd, but, if I’m the Giants, I arrange a meeting with him, sit down at a table, serve a plate of donuts, let everyone get comfortable, and then I look Smith in the eye and say “No.” Then I stand up and say “Thanks for coming in, everyone, the secretary will validate your parking, and… have a great day.”
by Curly Lambeau on Jul 9, 2010 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah I think I would want another year out of him before I gave him the money too…I do think he’s coming up with a fair comparison though…the primary point I was trying to get across. At least he isn’t trying to say…HEY! I had more catches than Andre Johnson, give me his kind of money. He found another pretty good WR who recently got a new deal that wasn’t crazy…I think he’s being respectful in that way. That is his high end (keep that in mind) so he likely won’t get that much if they do get to the table.
I do agree though, they should have some talks but then tell him they want to see a little more and if he keeps up the production they’ll start up discussions midseason.
I am referring to THAT type of WR. You misread. NOt saying you need an elite QB to have a great WR…saying you need a QB with a big arm to make a big play WR successful. Think Duante/Moss back in the day. Duante was NOT an elite WR but he had a big arm and a WR with crazy speed…it was lightning in the bottle. I don’t think Eli has the kind of arm to make Nicks a standout WR, not the Nicks is blazing fast, but I think he’s more of a deep ball kind of receiver (rather than a possession guy, like Smith is turning out to be)
estimate
So maybe I under-estimated Smith some… I am not a fan, and like I said, Nicks is going to be the man in NY this year. Smith also has the advantage is a terrific power running game to help him. Playing against 8 in the the box all the time allows him to play vs single coverage almost every down. When he started getting doubled some his stats dropped.
I’m not a fan of Manning either, but he’s a little better than you seem to be giving him credit for. He does have a SB, in which he played extremely well, to his credit! Unlike his brother, he actually elevated his play in the playoffs that year, something Peyton hasn’t really done in the playoffs.
Yeah, he might be better than I give him credit for but I think I overcompensate for the big bad east coast hype machine. I just think he isn’t nearly as good as the contract he got…his name seems to get him a lot of slack that other QBs wouldn’t get. PLUS I’ve always disliked him since the prick move he pulled in the draft to not get drafted by SD. As much of a prick as Rivers is, he wasn’t the one that felt he was too good for the team that drafted him!
He does have a ring though, can’t take that away, but there are 21 other starters that had their share of making that happen. I am not one to give QBs too much credit for the Super Bowls…some do, I don’t.
I hear that… THe move he pulled to get out of SD was 100% crap!!! Him and his daddy who thinks he’s too valuable to play in the tiny SD market!!! Total BUSH league!!!
The other story I heard was that Eli was worried that SD couldn’t develop a QB after the Ryan Leaf fiasco. I guess big brother Payton watched Leaf self destruct out there and figured part of it had to do with the Chargers system. This was shared in the family and so they pushed to get Eli out of there.
by PackApologist on Jul 9, 2010 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions
huh…hadn’t heard that one but either way, the leaf thing was like 6 years earlier with a totally different staff there. I don’t buy it…not saying it wasn’t a story out there that they were trying to push, but I think its total BS. He wanted to be in the NY market to maximize his money. He got his way but I have NO respect for him as a person or a QB for pulling that BS though.
Fair enough. I’m not sure I believe it either, just a story I heard. I know I always get a smile on my face when Eli is beaten down and forgotten as well.
by PackApologist on Jul 10, 2010 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions
I especially love it when Philadelphia totally owns the Giants' faces off.
It happened twice in 2008 (including the divisional playoffs, first ever 23-11 game in NFL history if I recall), and twice last year (40-17 Eagles win in Philadelphia, 45-38 Eagles win in New York).
Still, I wish the Packers could get a rematch with the Giants in the playoffs, and WIN it.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 10, 2010 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that is what was SO disappointing about 2007…it was frickin ELI MANNING that beat us!!! ARGH
Stroh, that door could open this discussion into a twenty-thousand comment post
I’m not even going there…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 11, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
although...
we could use the excitement in here. Maybe its time for our annual “was it Favre’s fault or not” debate! hahahahaha
Puh-leeze
I guess don’t want Vikings trolls randomly showing up and spamming the heck out of it…
Wait…don’t they do that already?
My point is moot…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 11, 2010 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Nicks might be the guy but not manningham. I think Manningham is very limited in what he can do, he had a few nice games but showed NO consistency.
Nicks might be more of the Jennings type WR for their team whereas Smith might be more of a Driver kind of guy who gets more catches but isn’t the big play kinda guy…
I'm a Wisconsin fan, so I have a burning hatred of Mario Manningham.
He showed amazing skills, but he is lacking as far as field awareness goes. He must think he can just get one foot down for a TD. That’s Michigan football, Mario, you have to get BOTH feet down in the NFL…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 9, 2010 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I like Smith. Don’t think he’s Jennings yet but he’s got a good chance to be. He’s a good route runner, and a pretty reliable 3rd down threat. I don’t think he’s necessarily a #1 though, so that could hurt his contract issues.
reliable
He’s a reliable 3rd down reciever… But he is NOT a threat in any way! Marginal speed… He isn’t going to threaten the defense going over the top! He is what he is… A possession reciever! Nothing more!
Yeah but possession WR’s are valuable too. Especially those who are great route runners, which Smith is. He’s been Manning’s go-to-guy on 3rd down. They have the two threats over the top in Hicks and possibly Manningham. (though he needs to be more consistent)
by packallday555 on Jul 10, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
well there goes our #2 WR...
You just made a great argument for why Driver isn’t great. Marginal speed, isn’t going to threaten over the top. Lets face it, teams don’t need multiple guys who are going to be fast deep guys. They need reliable possession guys who make the tough catch and are there for the QB when they need it. Face it man, Smith is a valuable part of that team. His numbers didn’t change with or without Nicks. They didn’t change with or without Manningham. He is Eli’s safety blanket and he was pretty damn good at it too. Sure its one year and its a little greedy to go after your big contract after one year (you hear that Ryan Grant!?!?) but nonetheless, you can’t argue his success and saying Nicks or Manningham are going to steal his role is a silly argument. They are different kinds of WRs. Driver was Favre’s security blanket just like Smith was Elis and should be for the foreseeable future.
Nicks was a rookie
Nicks was a rookie last year!!! You can’t expect a rookie to just step in and be THE MAN… Nicks improved alot over the course of the season! Entering his 2nd season, it seems to me that he is about ready to take over as the #1 WR for the gents! Is Smith Mannings security blanket? Sure… But that doesn’t make him anything special. Sorry, but IMO, the possession reciever has some value but not huge value. Welker is the rare special possession WR. But even he has Moss to threaten the over the top.
I don’t get the comparison to Driver either… Driver is still pretty fast. He’s lost a step, but he used to have excellent speed. And I really think Jones and Nelson are going to be taking snaps from Driver this year… Teams don’t “need” 2 deep threats but it is still a huge bonus. And both Driver and Jennings, have tremendous route running ability and can also get open on the short possession routes! Can Smith being a possession reciever threaten the D over the top? NO….
It really doesn’t matter though. The Giants have what looks to be a good #1 in Nicks, and a good slot guy in Manningham. They don’t need Smith to be an over the top guy, just like the Patriots don’t need Welker to be. And yes he IS Manning’s safety blanket. He’s a really, really reliable, and a great route runner. That’s valuable. Period.
by packallday555 on Jul 11, 2010 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I said he has some value, just not huge. Still think guys that are reliable and good route runners are relatively easy to find. No way does he get Jennings money. Jenning 9M per, Smith 6M tops, IMO
I agree to a point about the money. He hasn’t earned a $9 mill contract…which is why I think he should wait cause another 100 catch season mean cash money for him…BIG TIME. Even an 80 some catch season is a nice accomplishment with Nicks emerging and Eli as his QB. He’s a great route runner. He’s Eli’s go to guy. He’s going to get some money, even if Nicks is the deep guy.
The issue though is that Nicks ALSO only had one good year…it wasn’t even that good. I could name off a dozen rookie WRs (I bet) that have done this and fallen off the charts. So you assume that Nicks is going to do it again and that Smith won’t but that argument could flip flop on you just as easily. I think they both are going to have their spot. Smith is going to get more catches…the 7-10 yard variety and in clutch situations. Nicks is going to be more of a Jennings receiver for them…fewer catches more yards. They will both have their place.
Maybe. Smith’s proven to be Eli’s go to guy, and that in itself is valuable. I don’t think he gets Jennings type $$$ before this season but if he has another good year I’d suspect he will. Though either way, I’m sure he’ll get 6-9M.
by packallday555 on Jul 11, 2010 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions
jennings
imo——is in the same conversation with smith. smith is obvious the giants number 1 receiver and will get more looks than jennings. most fantasy football managers would take smith over jennings. i certainly would, because the giants have less weapons on offense than the packers. smith, simply, gets more targets.
jennings signed a 4 year 28 mil contract last season with 16 mill getting paid last season to him. that’s 4 mill per td reception if your’re scoring at home and averages out to 7 mill per season.
7 million for a number 1 receiver is a fair price, but neither jennings or smith should be paid like the elite receivers in this league, because there not.
by hermitcrab on Jul 11, 2010 6:59 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I am right with you!
If he started yammering about wanting Fitz money or AJ money or something I would put him in his place quickly but he’s aiming in the 6-12 range for contracts which will quickly be in the teens with new contracts being negotiated all the time. I think its a fair request.
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