Preview: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
by Brandon on Sep 10, 2010 7:00 AM CDT
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
Email
PrintThis might be my least favorite preview to write of the season because I haven't seen either the Green Bay Packers or the Philadelphia Eagles yet in a regular season game. And I haven't seen one particular player yet either.
QB Kevin Kolb.
I've never watched him closely in a game, and I'm not even sure what to expect. With only 130 career pass attempts, there hasn't been any pattern established. I'm not sure if he'll be Captain Checkdown, as he's done in some games, or whether he'll be looking to go deep. During a regular season game in 2008, he had 23 pass attempts for only 73 yards (3.2/attempt) which is similar to his performances in 2009 against the Panthers, and this preseason against the Chiefs. However, in his two 2009 starts, he opened it up and attempted 85 passes for 718 yards (8.5/attempt). Jason over at Bleeding Green Nation doesn't "think the offense will change that much." I think I'll stick with that assumption too.
According to the Journal-Sentinel, both teams are coming into the game in good health, so injuries should not be a factor. I'll take a closer look at their offense and defense based on their 2009 season.
Eagles pass defense. The official 2009 NFL stats only rank them 17th overall based on yardage, but they were 4th overall with 25 INTs and tied for 3rd with 44 sacks. They only helped themselves by adding 1st round pick DE Brandon Graham, who's looked good this preseason, to improve their pass rush. They've also added 2nd round pick FS Nate Allen so they don't have to rely on former starting FS Macho Harris anymore, and they've gone so far as to release Harris. However they traded away top cover CB Sheldon Brown. Now former Patriots CB Ellis Hobbs is set to start in place of Brown. Although Hobbs started 32 straight games for the Patriots from 2007-2008, he only appeared in 8 games last season for the Eagles. While I expect QB Aaron Rodgers will throw for around 250 yards with 2 TDs, the Eagles aggressive coverage style and blitzing pass rush could force an INT or two.
Eagles run defense. While they are not an elite run defense, they squeaked into the Top 10 at No. 9 overall in the official 2009 NFL stats. DT Mike Patterson and DT Brodrick Bunkley are a solid duo inside, but the rest of the front seven is in a little flux because of the addition of Graham, the trade for ex-Lion LB Ernie Sims, and the move of LB Akeem Jordan over to the strong side. RB Ryan Grant will never be the focal point of the offense, but he could be productive if the Eagles over-commit to stopping the pass.
Eagles pass offense. Assuming Kolb is at least as good as QB Donovan McNabb, the 10th best passing offense in 2009 (according to NFL.com) should once again be potent. If the Cardinals can run through the Packers pass defense like a buzz saw during the playoffs, the Eagles can do it too. Their big play weapon WR DeSean Jackson returns, and WR Jeremy Maclin should be better with his rookie season now behind him. After Kolb, the next significant question will be the play of C Jamaal Jackson and LG Todd Herremans because only Herremans played at all during the preseason as they rehabbed from injuries. If the Packers can bring a consistent pass rush up the middle, the Eagles offense will struggle to go anywhere.
Eagles run offense. Andy Reid's aversion to the run is legendary, so this isn't really a key to their offensive game plan. RB LeSean McCoy takes over as the starting running back, after the departure of long time veteran RB Brian Westbrook, and like Maclin, McCoy too should improve in his second season. One other note is that Kolb is not a mobile QB. He's only "ran" for -1 yard in his NFL career. While McNabb is not the mobile QB he once was, his 140 yards rushing in 2009 will not be replaced by Kolb this season. The great Packers run defense of 2009 returns nearly intact in 2010, and I don't expect the Eagles will test it much.
I'm comparing this matchup to the Ravens at Packers in 2009. While the Ravens offense and defense are about as good as the Eagles, the Packers played the Ravens during a night game in December which was a lot colder than the game on Sunday will be in Philadelphia. I wouldn't expect both QBs to struggle this Sunday like Rodgers and QB Joe Flacco did in the cold. The Eagles only lost twice at home in 2009, but they played in a lot of close games. I'll expect this game to stay close too: Packers 21, Eagles 17.
30 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I’ve never watched him closely in a game, and I’m not even sure what to expect.
If you’re interested, here are videos of every throw he made against the Saints last year, and against the Chiefs (also last year).
Nice job by the way, although I will disagree with one minor point…
One other note is that Kolb is not a mobile QB. He’s only “ran” for -1 yard in his NFL career. While McNabb is not the mobile QB he once was, his 140 yards rushing in 2009 will not be replaced by Kolb this season.
It’s a common misconception that Kolb is a statue back there, and although his career rushing stats certainly won’t support this… Kolb is absolutely a mobile QB. He moves around well in the pocket, and can escape to the outside to buy more time for his receivers to get open downfield. He’s also not averse to pulling it down and running it either. I watched him take off downfield quite a bit during camp, as well as in the preseason (he had 33 rushing yards in roughly 6 quarters of play). I’ll agree that he’s not the mobile QB that McNabb was, but it is a strong aspect of Kolb’s game, and I believe people will see that soon enough.
I would say at this point he’s as mobile as McNabb is. I would say that McNabb has more “escapability” but in terms of just foot speed I doubt they’re much different at this point.
I think Kolb could end up comparable to Tony Romo as a scrambler. He doesn’t scare anyone and you don’t gameplan against it, but he can scamper for a first if the opportunity is there.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
I think it's two different things
I brought the point up when discussing the Eagles run offense. There’s no danger he’ll run the ball. His mobility in the pocket to avoid a sack is something completely different, and I’d discuss that when talking about the Eagles passing offense. Kolb sounds like Brett Favre, who’s no threat to run for a 1st down (well he would’ve 15 years ago, but not now), but obviously still good at buying time and avoiding the rush.
glad
We have the Eagles early this year….As the season wears on the Eagles will just get better and better. Wildcard team.
by greenbay packers backer on Sep 10, 2010 10:27 AM CDT reply actions
Yeah me too
The biggest advantage that the Pack has is that it will probably take a game or two for the Eagles offense to really hit a groove. On the flip side it’s tough to prepare since there isn’t much film out there yet.
Ultimately I think the Packers win in a shooting match. The key match up will be Burnett versus their starting TE, seconded by Shields against whoever he is going to be opposite against. As long as the Pack can win a few of those battles then we should be in great shape. If not…well then this could look like a college football game with the amount of offense versus the relatively small amount of defense.
by PackApologist on Sep 10, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
seconded by Shields against whoever he is going to be opposite against.
Jason Avant, who may be the best 3rd WR in the league.
yeah Stroh basically explained it
It sounds like Shields will be lined up against Jackson or Maklin which is what I figured going in.
Sam Shields is a pretty raw guy who’s got plenty of talent. He played for the U of Miami and was converted from WR to CB his last year. He’s got pretty good instincts, but has the technique of a guy who has been playing the position for one year. He’s also pretty darn fast, 4.25 for speed.
Since most of our nicklebacks are hurt, see Harris and Underwood, or suck, see Lee, Bush, maybe Underwood, Shields is being thrown in the fire as the starting nickle.
Fans are equal parts cautiously optimistic, deeply disappointed, and utterly freaked out.
by PackApologist on Sep 10, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
That'll meas Shields
Our rookie undrafted FA CB will be matched up vs Jackson and Macklin quite a bit. That is a matchup Reid will certainly look to exploit. Hope Sheilds is up for the challenge!
I think if the kid wants to have a job next year, that'll be motivation enough.
But from what I’ve seen of Shields… he is pretty good straight man to man, a little shaky with just coverage, but without Harris we need him for our Nickel DB. God forbid someone like Bush gets in there!
When life gives ya lemons, shut up and eat your damn lemons.
The big disadvantage
the Eagles have with Brent Celek, for just as good a pass catching threat as he is, he’s that bad as a blocker, probably the worst starting TE at blocking in the league.
If the Eagles don’t want our defense to key on their passing game, they’re gonna have to play alot of two tight, and that de-emphasizes the Eagles depth at receiver.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
The Eagles play 2-TE sets about 25% of the time, which was bottom-5 in the entire NFL last year. If anything, they’ll play less of it against the Packers, who have a weaker pass rush than the majority of the other teams they typically face.
And I’m not sure where you’re getting the “Celek is worst blocker in the NFL” stuff.
And the Eagles
chose not to run the ball that often last year, and choosing not to play alot of two tight is probably why.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
past
In the past the Iggles chose not to run as much so they could get Westbrook in space against a LB or safety. It also helped decrease the pounding he took. I expect that to continue w/ McCoy who is similar in stature to Westbrook. My only guestion w/ that is… Is McCoy as good a reciever out of the backfield? He can’t be as good, but is he also really good?
I dont know about Celek as a blocker, but hes a damn good reciever!
I expect that to continue w/ McCoy who is similar in stature to Westbrook. My only guestion w/ that is… Is McCoy as good a reciever out of the backfield? He can’t be as good, but is he also really good?
You’re right – Westbrook was really in his own category as pass catching receivers was he was in his prime. McCoy isn’t Westbrook in that regard by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s absolutely a well-above-average threat in the passing game.
The have chosen not to run that much for 10 years.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
That's simply not true
Celek struggled as a blocker early in his career, but he was fine last year. His blocking was notably improved. At worst he’s an average blocker.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
Kolb is strong and accurate...
and with those young, quick receivers, they’ll be a playoff contender for sure, but the early part of the season I’m betting is gonna be rough for them.
I’ll call this one right now: 24-16 Packers.
I’m basing this on Kolb being able to pick up yardage in the open field, but not having too much of an answer in the red zone, and I don’t think McCoy will have a break out game against the Pack D. They’ll be able to manage possession decently enough, otherwise, I’d have the Packers scoring in the thirties.
I’m betting it’ll be the Donald Driver show. Lots of quick slants to try to open Jennings up. Finley will pick up at least one of those TDs.
"Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Vince Lombardi
Nice Call on Brandon Graham, Brandon
He looks really promising. He’s like Cullen Jenkins, just thirty pounds lighter.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
I read through the predictions at Bleeding Green Nation.
Seems about 2/3 of the fans there were predicting a Packers win, too. And I’m going to go with this sentiment as well.
However, (and you can feel free to call me a Kool-Aid Drinker), I think the score might not be as close as many people think.
Packers 34, Eagles 17
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010! State high point count: 3/50
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Sep 10, 2010 5:30 PM CDT reply actions
What flavor do ya like, VCF?
Hell, I went with a 14 – 17 point margin victory, although the talking heads say a smaller margin will be likely. I’ll have some blue raspberry please… and lots of ice.
When life gives ya lemons, shut up and eat your damn lemons.
I'll take orange-flavored.
I didn't believe it last August, but it turns out that love survives.
Mount Washington conquered July 5, 2010! State high point count: 3/50
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Sep 10, 2010 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Shields...and score...
Shields has a tough task against WHOEVER he faces…Undrafted free agent who will be playing week 1…it should raise concerns for all of us Packer fans. Not saying he won’t step up in the Nickel package, but he IS likely to get lit up at least once. Burnett will be a target too. The plus side=they are both ball hawks, so if they are in reasonable position they could come smelling like roses. Score=31-21
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Ahmad Bradshaw says Cowboys won’t win with Tony Romo at QB
- Cruz: Manningham’s Super catch wasn’t drawn up that way
- Whitney Houston performed the greatest national anthem in sports history (video)
- Justin Tuck visits New York City cop who survived gunshot wound to head
- The Giants won the ‘Brain Bowl,’ too
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
