2010 Season Preview
by texwestern on Sep 6, 2010 10:00 PM CDT
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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As I watch Boise State and Virginia Tech wrap up the opening week of the college football season tonight, my thoughts naturally turn to the NFL and to the Packers' season. As I did last year, I'll go over this season game-by-game, projecting the Packers' season record and finish within the division. A few sentences on each game of the 2010 season can be found after the jump.
When all is said and done, I see a 12-4 season for our Green and Gold in 2010, enough to earn an NFC North division title.
There are a few storylines and factors that I think may have a serious impact on the results of this year. One is the return of Al Harris. If he can return from the PUP list at full strength, it will significantly help the defense against teams with multiple receiving threats (and hopefully his activation will give Ted Thompson the excuse to cut Jarrett Bush). Another major factor, to nobody's surprise, will be the play of the special teams units. With Will Blackmon's release, Jordy Nelson will likely be the primary kick returner with Tramon Williams handling the punts, and we can only hope that the blocking teams fare better than in recent years. One other player who I see as becoming a bigger factor this year is RB Brandon Jackson. I have a hunch that he will establish himself as one of the better 3rd-down backs in the league this year, and that he may have moments like in the Seahawks preseason game where he really shines.
Feel free to criticize my picks in the comments below.
Week 1: Packers @ Eagles, 3:15
The big matchup in this game should be the Packers' pass defense against Kevin Kolb in his first game as a full-time starter for Philly. Combine that with Andy Reid's distaste for the running game and a new starter at running back in LeSean McCoy, and you can see why the secondary will be put to the test. Philly's defense isn't what it once was, however, and I see the Packers winning a fairly high-scoring game. (W, 1-0)
Week 2: vs. Bills, 12:00
Because of my well-documented man-crush on Wisconsin alumni, I'll have my eye on Lee Evans. However, the Bills' best unit is their special teams. If guys like Korey Hall, Tom Crabtree, and Frank Zombo (my new favorite Packer) can contain KR Roscoe Parrish, this game shouldn't be close. (W, 2-0)
Week 3: @ Bears, 7:15 (Monday night)
Remember Jay Cutler's performance in the opener last year? Now he has an even more pass-happy coordinator in Mike Martz. Brian Urlacher returns after playing one quarter last season, but he's been banged up again this preseason. I just don't see enough talent on the defensive side of the ball for the Bears to keep Aaron Rodgers and company off the board. (W, 3-0)
Week 4: vs. Lions, 12:00
Is the Lions' defense better? Probably. The additions of Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vandenbosch up front will help the line, but I can't see Lions putting up a fight at Lambeau Field. One curiosity is former Badger LB DeAndre Levy, who is moving to the inside for the first time after playing OLB for his entire college and pro career. (W, 4-0)
Week 5: @ Redskins, 12:00
With Mike Shanahan taking over as the head coach and an established QB in Donovan McNabb, this Redskins team suddenly seems like they could make some noise in the NFC East. Their talented secondary needs to show some progress, but they could give Rodgers some difficulty. This is one of those gut-feeling picks like my pick in the Tampa Bay game last year, and I see the Redskins taking a close one. (L, 4-1)
Week 6: vs. Dolphins, 12:00
The team to introduce the Wildcat to the NFL comes to Lambeau in mid-October, but I'm confident that the speed of the Packers' linebackers negates it for the most part. What will make the difference is the Charles Woodson-Brandon Marshall matchup. Since the Dolphins don't have an established second option in the passing game, Capers can focus on Marshall and the running game. The Dolphins only standouts on defense are their middle linebackers, Channing Crowder and Karlos Dansby (remember him?) but they don't have enough playmakers at other positions to slow down the Packers. (W, 5-1)
Week 7: vs. Vikings, 7:20 (Sunday night)
You-know-who returns to Lambeau again. That's enough talk about him. These two teams know each other well, and neither has made huge changes from the last time they played. This time, Rodgers and the Packers get their revenge on a Vikings team without its best receiving option. (W, 6-1)
Week 8: @ Jets, 12:00
In their first visit to New Giants Stadium/The Meadowlands/whatever they call it when the Jets play there, the Packers may have some difficulty against the Jets' defense. In a matchup between the self-proclaimed NFL defensive player of the year and the player who actually won the award, I have a hunch that Revis gets the best of Woodson in this one and the Hard Knocks All-Stars get a win. My player to watch: perennial overachiever Jim Leonhard from Ladysmith, WI. (L, 6-2)
Week 9: vs. Cowboys, 7:20 (Sunday night)
Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant will be dangerous threats, but with Al Harris back in the secondary by this time (if all goes well with his recovery), they should be able to handle multiple receivers. Aside from DeMarcus Ware, the Cowboys don't seem to have many impact players on defense, just solid players who know their roles. Rodgers and Finley should have a good day against the Cowboys' average safeties, and the Cowboys continue their struggles in Lambeau. (W, 7-2)
Week 11: @ Vikings, 12:00
Last year, I couldn't pick either team to sweep both games. I feel the same way this year, and we get yet another reason to hate the Metrodome. (L, 7-3)
Week 12: @ Falcons, 12:00
The Falcons could be a dangerous team this year, and many people are picking them to win the NFC South. Matt Ryan should show improvement in his third season with a number of solid weapons around him. The front seven should be strong, but the secondary can be beaten. If the offensive line gives Rodgers time to throw, the Packers win. (W, 8-3)
Week 13: vs. 49ers, 12:00*
An excellent defense led by LB Patrick Willis will give the Packers their best shot. However, much like last year's meeting, an offense led by Alex Smith won't be able to muster enough points late to beat the Packers at Lambeau. (W, 9-3)
Week 14: @ Lions, 12:00*
This game actually worries me a bit. The Lions do have weapons on offense in Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Add in RB Jahvid Best's blazing speed on turf and there could be some concern. However, as in the first meeting, the defense can't contain the Packers. (W, 10-3)
Week 15: @ Patriots, 7:20* (Sunday night)
Though the Patriots consistently have a very good team, I'm not terribly impressed with them this year. They probably won't have much of a running game (although that's not much of a change), but I just don't get a championship-caliber vibe from their defense. The game will hinge on how the Packers handle slot receiver Wes Welker. If Al Harris is indeed at full strength, I would expect him to shadow Randy Moss while Woodson shadows Welker all over the field. If that's the case, the Packers win. (W, 11-3)
Week 16: vs. Giants, 3:15*
Every year, the Packers seem to lose a winnable game. While I mean no disrespect to the Giants, getting them at home should be a winnable game. Their offense is dangerous, and by this time in the season Ahmad Bradshaw should be starting at running back. The Giants ground game may pull them ahead for a close win. (L, 11-4)
Week 17: vs. Bears, 12:00*
Normally, I would be wary of picking the Packers to win both games against the Bears, regardless of the quality of the teams (see my 2009 preview). However, my guess is that a win against Chicago clinches the division for the Packers, so they'll be plenty motivated to beat an outmatched Bears team and clinch a division title. (W, 12-4)
That's all she wrote. A 12-4 season with a division title is my goal and my prediction. This team has the talent to do it, and I look forward to watching them try. One final note: if any of you readers are in or around the Columbus, OH area, I urge you to join the Buckeye Packer Backers club at the On Tap Pub on Bethel Road for the opening game on Sunday afternoon. I'll be there with a huge crowd of rowdy Packers fans, and I hope to see you there.
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I've been saying 12-4 also
but going through the schedule I have a hard time finding losses I can’t see
washington beating us. The only teams i see having a chance are teams that are capable of scoring lots of points. I see us losing 3 Vikings away, Patriots away and one to Atalanta or the Giants. 13-3 sounds right after a 6-0 start. I see the Vikings starting 3-3 and then well see if Childress can coach. I don’t think he’ll keep them together
I'm still not sold on our ability to win in Philly in Week 1
Why that city is a constant horror-show for the Packers is a mystery, but the fact remains that we haven’t won there since 1962. I’ll trade that L for the one you predicted vs. the ’Skins.
I also don’t like our chances in the Georgia Dome against Turner and Ryan, I’ll trade that W for the one you predicted vs. the Giants.
I have trepidation for the game in New England, too. Other than that, I’m pretty much with ya.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
One reason to be optimistic for a W week 1
The Eagles o-line is awful. I only saw the Eagles in one preseason game (@ Bengals), but Kolb was running for his life nearly every time he dropped back to pass. They couldn’t get any push when they wanted to run on short-yardage situations.
Of course, Andy Reid knows they have a bad o-line too, so presumably he’s doing something to try to fix it, and I have to think it will be a little better in the regular season. Still, it could be an opportunity for our pass rush guys to have a huge game against a QB getting one of his first starts.
Man, I hope you're right....
… but my guess is that they lose to the Eagles, the Vikings once, the Bears or Lions once, the Jets, the Pats and one of the matchups against the Falcons or Boys. That puts them at 10-6 with an outside shot at the division and a WC pretty much locked down.
I’m worried about those first six weeks. They need a fast start because the schedule gets tougher in the middle, but the Eagles and Bears on the road, while they probably should be wins, could go the other way if the secondary can’t cover. I could see them 4-2 pretty easily after that stretch.
Weeks 7-12 will define the season. Five consecutive games against likely playoff teams, with 4 of those games in conference and 2 in division. After a 4-2 start, they’ll need to win at least 3 of those 5 games, with one of those against the Vikings. If they lose both games to the Vikings, they’ll lose the division. My guess is that they lose the road games to the Jets and the Vikings, which makes the game in Atlanta a fairly big one. Win that and they’ll go into Week 13 with a 7-4 record, which won’t feel great at the time, but would set them up nicely for the last 5 games to make a run at home field and some major momentum going into the playoffs.
12-4 is possible, but 10-6 seems more likely to me.
BCB free since 8/24/10 and happier for it.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 6, 2010 10:50 PM CDT reply actions
I'd swap the results against the 'Phins and the 'Skins
For the simple reason that the Dolphins could be pretty desperate and channel two or three big plays into TDs. Anything can happen in the NFL. A turnover or injury can be the difference between 7-9 and 13-3.
Can Abbrederis shoot the long three and effectively distribute the ball to his big men?
"Because one of the great minds of the 21st century is raising glow-in-the-dark fish and weaving serapes..." -Leonard Hofstadter from The Big Bang Theory
For all the crap we give Wil Wheaton, he can still tackle better than Asante Samuel...
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 6, 2010 11:27 PM CDT reply actions
I don't think you guys will lose to the Jets
IMO they’re overrated
In life, a man is either the hammer or the anvil. Ndamukong Suh is both
Pride of Detroits village idiot
I would say 12-4 or 13-3.
I think they sweep MIN this time, but may lose one at CHI. Either way, we both are predicting 5-1 in the division, which I think will prove to be accurate. That is an important record.
I’d reverse your prediction with PHI and WAS, so that outcome is the same for the record. I think they take the Giants game, and perhaps the Jets as well. The Jets defense is good, but they can only slow down the Packers offense so much, and there’s no way Sanchez can stay on pace. Still, that’s a tough one, and at ATL and NE will also be challenging. There are some tough home games there against SF and DAL. I think GB can come out of these ten non-divisional games with only two losses. However, three losses would still give GB a 12-4 record. The key is the divisinal games, and I think that 13-3 is well within reach.
We’ll soon see. I’m excited about watching the Eagles contest this weekend. The season has finally arrived! Go Packers!
I've been saying 11-5 all offseason.
And I don’t see any reason to alter that prediction now. I also think Minn loses a couple games they would have won last year. So 11-5 for the Packers and 10-6 for the vikes. Packers win the NFC North. Won’tgo game by game, but thats my feelings… IMO, the Packers will be one of the 2 teams w/ a bye the first week of the playoffs! Home field is going to come down to tie-breakers, but I do see the Pack playing in the NFC Championship game. SB depends too much on injuries and other factors, so I won’t go there yet.
13-3
They’re that good.
My dad was at Game 5 of the 1984 World Series. I was born that year. Apparently I need to have a kid for them to win another one.
I think the key for us game in and game out will be how we start. In the past it’s taken us some time to get the jitters out and start hitting on all cylinders. With the offense we have this season, starting games well could be crucial. If we can put points up early it’ll take some pressure off the defense, and give us a nice cushion.
I know people are somewhat down on the defense but I don’t see how it’s not at least as good as last seasons. I personally think it’ll improve but that’s just me. Putting Matthews and Jenkins opposite each other should improve the pass rush, Raji moving to NT should improve the pass rush, and better understanding of the defensive schemes should improve the pass rush (mostly because we should do a better job of disguising blitzes). We’re better off at nickel and dime as well with Shields, Underwood, and Lee as opposed to Bush and Bell.
Regardless though, our offense should be even better then last season which is scary. Not only is the offensive line healthy but there is also much better depth there in case of injuries. If the offensive line can give Rodgers time consistently I think we can expect 30+ points, and if they can’t we should still expect 24+ in my opinion.
I think 12-4 or 11-5 is a good estimate.
Brandon Jackson
I think Jackson really improves this year! I see him as a better option than Jordy Nelson as a KR.
Tramon Williams is our best option unfortunately at PR. I liked the idea of experimenting with Shields there in Preseason, but that was a failed experiment. Time to move on.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
Who are you referring to?
Jackson was returning kickoffs in Preseason.
Shields dropped a couple balls on kickoff return in Preseason.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
I would agree with you..
12-4 maybe a few swaps throughout.. This is a team very capable of going 13-3 but I think we do lose one of those “easy win games” to put us at 12-4
I really dislike the new Sideline Hats.
Just look at the one Rodgers has on. I’ve seen them on every team, and have yet to find one I like. They just seem cheap. like something you’d buy at a gas station.
"A ringing single for David Eckstein who, in my view, is the perfect size for an American male." -Bob Costas
The NFL has a real knack
For marketing the ugliest crap they can find. They must focus-group this stuff to 9-year-olds.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
All the more reason
The Court Case this summer was important. Multiple manufacturers = less crap being forced down your throat.
Reminds me of 1996
I haven’t been this excited about a season since 1997. We should have won that Super Bowl to 14 point favorites ouch. This season reminds me of 1996 so many parallels. That season teams were lining up after the preseason to pick up the players Ron Wolf cut, we were deep in talent. I think were up to 6 of our cuts now on other team rosters that doubles the next closest team.
I believe our 1st game that season was against the Eagles on a Monday night and we smoked them 39-6 I believe. After the game Ray Rhodes said something like There ain’t no better team out there than the one we just played. I’m hoping Andy Reid is saying the same thing after Sunday.
We had the young quarterback that everyone felt was going to be great. I think he would have been about 26 also. We have that special quarterback again.
It feels like the stars are aligned 13-3 nad I see us in the Super Bowl if we can stay relatively healthy.
by the yooper on Sep 7, 2010 3:17 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Fun post, fun to think about the big picture
I’ll predict …I don’t know, tough to say. 12-4 is fine if things go right, but my worst case scenario would be 8-8. All the preseason hype notwithstanding, the fact is that we’re going to have real trouble defending the pass this year. …even if we stay healthy, we’ll struggle with the pass. But there’s always injuries, and our pass defense cannot withstand injuries to Woodson, Jenkins, Matthews and maybe Collins. …or Al Harris when he comes back. Especially at DE and CB, we’re paper-thin. Our starters are pretty good, but there’s no safety net at all.
I think we sweep the Vikings, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we get swept by the Bears.
It’s fine to say that our offense is going to put up a ton of points, but, like the guy in The Natural said “losing is a disease, as contageous as Bubonic Plague.” What I mean is, if teams figure out that we can’t stop the pass, and then just start spreading us out 5-wide all game, then I don’t know if we’re going to have an answer. …especially if some of the injuries I mentioned earlier happen.
Remember 2008! We had a good team that year too, but then Jenkins got hurt, KGB couldn’t ever get right, I think Al Harris missed some time, and, all of a sudden, we couldn’t stop the run in the 4th quarter and we just started losing game after game after game and, before you know it… bam, 6-10. And that was not a bad team!
So, I don’t know… Believe it or not, my hopes are actually very high. But I’m just saying that things can get ugly real quick once the preseason ends. High-flying offenses can shrivel up just like that once they get punched in the mouth a few times.
Again, I’m not as pessimistic as I sound. I actually think we win the Superbowl this year, but… we’ll see. It’s going to happen unless it doesn’t.
Wow, nothing like writing a couple paragraphs w/o saying a damn thing!!!
You’ve been around women far too much! LOL
Sorry about that, Stroh, I didn’t mean to waste your valuable time. I mean, it’s not like you just sit around all day reading about the Packers and commenting on blogs.
Tell you what, I’ll give you a full refund for the cost of your ticket.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 7, 2010 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Wait, wait, Stroh…!
Don’t go!! You forgot to call me an idiot.
(damn, how will I ever know whether or not I’m an idiot if Strohman doesn’t tell me? Crap!)
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 7, 2010 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, honestly, I kinda’ feel bad about that.
But your comments are just not very nice. My knee-jerk reaction to the way you say things is always to be snarky. …and I actually usually agree with your points themselves. But it’s the way you say them.
anyway…
The lesson, as always, is “never speak harshly to somebody on the internet.” It’ll accomplish nothing, and a guy will either feel bad about it later, or, what’s worse, he might not. That’s when he’s in real bad shape.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 7, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I should be more specific about the losses I see happening.
I think we lose to the Eagles, Bears (twice), Lions (As was mentioned in an earlier comment, they’ve got some real weapons on offense. And their d-line… scary! I think they surprise everybody this year. They’ll be in contention for the division right up until the end of the season), Cowboys, Patriots (they’ll spread the field from the east into the uttermost west. We’re going to look BAD in this game), and maybe the Falcons (it just seems like we always lose to the Falcons).
So, yeah, I think we go 9-7. I think we’ll still win the division, though, and, once we get into the playoffs, anything can happen. So, despite the bad regular season record, I think this is our year.
So this is how it’ll go down:
We’ll start out 1-3 and everybody will freak out and have a kid.
Then we’ll go on a 4 game winning streak, culminating with a win over his-Prilosecness.
It’ll be up-and-down for the rest of the season where they look great one week and terrible the next.
They’ll come into the playoffs hungry and focused.
The Lombardi trophy comes home.
The end
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 7, 2010 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Lose to the Bears? Twice?!?
Not unless their o-line gets way, way better
by DaveInTucson on Sep 7, 2010 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, but we don’t have much of a pass-rush. They’re just the sort of team that we could struggle with.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 7, 2010 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say that.
We haven’t seen our best pass rushers play all preseason.
"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker
Additionally
Their first team made every other D-Line look like the hand of God this season. Everyone thought Rodgers would get killed last year in the first half- that’s the Bears this season.
Yeah, I think that’s something that everyone is overlooking. And too our credit, when we played the Colts in our third game (which many teams treat like a real game for at least the 1st half) we still managed a decent pass rush with Poppinga and Zombo starting for Matthews and Jones. Not too mention Neal starting for Jenkins, though Neal looked really good to me.
by packallday555 on Sep 7, 2010 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
The only way we lose to Duh Bears
Is if the Packers team plane crashes into the Sears Tower. No fuggin’ way we lose to that bunch, let alone twice. My prediction’s 12-4. Only losses to the Viqueens at that awful dome, the Falcons in their dome, the Cheatriots, and maybe to the newly reformed Redskins. And that’s a big maybe.
When life gives ya lemons, shut up and eat your damn lemons.
2010 EDITION OF THE DEFENSE
As expected, we haven’t seen the defense yet. While much lamenting has happened over cornerbacks, the real culprit in last years lapses was a lack of an INSIDE rush. Period. You put any “elite” QB unmolested in a pocket and he’s going to shred the defense regardless of who’s in the secondary. Blitz and it’s worse. Which is exactly what happened.
The loss of Jolly is a blessing in disguise because he couldn’t rush a lick. Thompson’s moves are an automatic upgrade. While not spectacular (yet), Raji has shown enough to believe he’ll get the job done at NT.
What’s intriguing to me is the freedom Capers is going to have scheming the defense.
He knows the offense has his back covered. It could be high risk high reward scheme. It’s no accident Burnett and Shields have been given increased roles. Both are potential playmakers.
+1
It appears Neal will be able to provide push from the defensive end spot, and possibly in our nickel/dime packages too. I’m really excited about him, and what he brings as far as a pass rush goes.
Raji hasn’t looked amazing or anything but he’s done his job. He takes on double teams nearly every play, which opens up things for our other guys.
by packallday555 on Sep 8, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
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