FanPost

Packer's defense against every team so far


Hi guys, there was a request on my last post to show how the pass defense is doing so far in situational passing.  I entered every play the defense has played so far this season and the point differential at the time.  There were some plays omitted, like QB kneels and some plays where penalties were committed, so the stats may not be 100% what you see in the box score.

Going from right to left at the top is the game log, broken down by quarter and team for every game this season.  At the bottom of the page in yellow, is all the results/important stuff.  If there is a summation of some kind that people want to see on the chart, let me know.

For a link to the chart, click here

and for the record, the chart is much cleaner and easier to read in Excel than Google Docs

I think it really stands out how much the Packers are playing with the lead this season.  71% of the plays the defense has been on the field for this year, they've had the lead.  Which is phenomenal considering that games begin in ties and are generally tied or very close/losing until the end of the first half.  Just as astounding, the Packers defense has been on the field while losing as much as they have trying to protect a 3 score lead.

Teams are throwing 14% more against the Packers while they are losing or tied than when they are winning, which comes as no surprise and are completing almost 1.5 yards less per pass in those situations.  In the 4th quarter teams are throwing the ball on almost 80% of plays... which is insane.  On a play-by-play analysis the Packers are statistically worse in the 1st quarter, by a decent margin, than any other quarter.

I think the most telling stat and the one that can explain why people appear to be so down on the Packers is the average yardage of passing touchdowns allowed when the Packers are winning vs when they are losing or tied.  The average distance of the passing touchdowns the Packers give up while they are winning is twice as far as when they are tied or losing.  Teams are throwing deeper and coverage is failing on the deep pass when teams are trying to make a comeback. 

There is also a fairly disturbing trend in yards/rush after the first 3 games (which were great) but since then the best game was 4.4 yards per carry, which could spell disaster against the Vikings this Monday

There is a lot to analyze in there, feel free to add your own opinions.

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