While the Chiefs have a decent 5-8 record, and there are four other teams further out of the playoff picture in the AFC, they've have been outscored by 132 points this season. In the AFC, only the winless Colts have been outscored by a larger margin.
That's not a clear sign that the Chiefs have no chance. The Buccaneers have only 4 wins and been outscored by 138 points this season, but they got within 2 points twice against the Packers in the fourth quarter. A big part of the Buccaneers success was Josh Freeman. The Packers pass defense hasn't shown a lot of improvement to me as the season has gone on, so it's possible the Chiefs could have a big game passing as well.
While the Buccaneers have arguably had a worse season, the Chiefs don't seem to be doing anything very well. Their pass offense hasn't been as good as the Buccaneers. They do have the advantage of playing at home, and they may have more success with Kyle Orton, if his dislocated finger allows him to play. On the other hand, if Orton can't play, then rookie Ricky Stanzi would get his first NFL start. Or maybe starting a quarterback who's still having issues with a dislocated finger isn't a good idea either.
I can't see the change in quarterback making a big difference. The Chiefs haven't scored more than 10 points in a game in their last six. While their defense has played better than their offense, they've also allowed over 30 points in three of their last seven games. The weather should be cold, but clear with little wind, which should allow the Packers to score at their usual pace. The score is usually closer on the road, but it doesn't look like the Chiefs will have enough offensive firepower to keep pace.
Packers 30, Chiefs 10.