FanPost

Playoff Tiebreakers - NFC Week 15

So to take my mind off the game today I decided to work through the possible playoff scenarios in the NFC. First of all, even by winning today the Eagles were officially eliminated from the wild card which now leaves six teams still alive for the two wild cards before tie-breakers. The Lions and Falcons have a two game lead on the Bears, Seahawks, Cardinals, and the Cowboys if they lose the east, so either or both could wrap up their spots with a win next week. But should either or both lose their next two games, then things could get very interesting. Here are the possible scenarios.

So here's what we know so far:

The Packers, Saints, and 49ers have clinched playoff spots. The Packers can clinch the #1 seed with a SF loss in one of their remaining three games of a win in one of their final two games, but will have no lower than the #2 seed. SF would hold the tie-breaker on GB so they must finish with a better record.

SF has clinched their division and is currently 1/2 game behind the Saints for the #2 seed, but holds every tiebreaker with the Saints and can clinch the #2 seed by winning their final three games or finishing with the same record as NO.

NO has yet to clinch their division, but can only lose the division by losing their last two and having the Falcons win their last two. NO and ATL play next week, and NO plays the Panthers the final week while ATL plays the Bucs. Either way, NO will have no worse than the #5 seed and will have the #2 or #3 if they win their division.

The East will come down to the final weekend match-up between the Cowboys and Giants unless NY loses next week to Jets and DAL beats the Eagles next week. Due to their loss today, NY can't win a wild card spot but can win the Division if they win out. The Eagles have an outside chance to win the division by winning their final two games against DAL and WAS, but would need NY to lose next week to the Jets and beat DAL in the final week.

For the Wild Card, the first tiebreaker between three or more teams is to narrow it down to one team per division so this will eliminate either the Lions or Bears. The Bears would win the tie-breaker with the Lions if they both finish at 9-7 due to a better record in the Division of 4-2 vs 3-3. The Cardinals and Seahawks play the final weekend so the loser would automatically be eliminated.

The four team scenarios are:

DAL, DET, ATL, and SEA at 9-7. SEA would gain the #5 seed based on an 8-4 conference record, and DAL would gain the #6 seed based on a 7-5 conference record to DET and ATL's 6-6 conference record.

DAL, DET, ATL, and ARI at 9-7. ARI would be the #5 seed based on a head-to-head win against DAL and once again DAL would be the #6 seed due to conference record.

DAL, CHI, ATL, and SEA at 9-7. SEA and CHI would be the Wild Cards due to 8-4 conference records and SEA would be the #5 seed based on their head-to-head win.

DAL, CHI, ATL, and ARI at 9-7. CHI would be the #5 seed and ARI would be the #6 seed.

If ATL clinches the #5 seed, the three-team scenarios are:

DAL, DET, and SEA at 9-7. SEA would be the #6 seed based on the best conference record.

DAL, DET, and ARI at 9-7. ARI would be the #6 seed based on best conference record with DAL and head-to-head against DAL.

DAL, CHI, and SEA at 9-7. SEA is the #6 seed based on conference record with CHI and head-to-head win against CHI.

DAL, CHI, and ARI at 9-7, then CHI is the #6 seed due to conference record

The two-team scenarios if ATL wins are:

DAL & DET, which DET wins due to head-to-head.

SEA & DET, and ARI & DET in which DET loses due to conference record.

DAL & CHI and ARI & CHI in which CHI would win due to conference record.

ARI & DAL in which DAL would lose.

SEA & DAL in which DAL would win due to head-to-head.

SEA & CHI in which SEA would win.

If DET clinches the #5 seed the four team scenarios are:

DAL, CHI, ATL, and SEA at 9-7. SEA would be the #6 seed due to conference record.

DAL, CHI, ATL, and ARI. CHI would be the #6 seed, again based on conference record.

The three-team scenarios are:

DAL, ATL, and CHI. CHI would win based on conference record.

DAL, ARI, and CHI. CHI wins based on conference record.

DAL, SEA, and CHI. SEA would win based on conference record and head-to-head against CHI.

DAL, ATL, SEA. DAL wins based on conference record and SEA losing to both DAL and ATL.

DAL, ATL, and ARI. ARI wins due to conference record and head-to-head against DAL.

CHI, ATL, and SEA. SEA wins based on conference record and head-to-head win against CHI.

CHI, ATL, and ARI. CHI wins based on conference record.

The two-team scenarios available if DET wins are:

SEA & DAL and SEA & ATL in which SEA loses, or SEA & CHI in which SEA would win.

ARI & DAL and ARI & ATL in which ARI wins, or ARI & CHI in which CHI wins.

CHI & DAL, and CHI & ATL in which CHI wins, or DAL & ATL in which DAL wins.

ATL holds the tie-breaker against DET for the #5 seed if they both finish with the same record.

I think this covers all of the scenarios for the NFC, but if you see any I missed or got wrong let me know. I will take a look at the AFC after tomorrow night's game.

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